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How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value

  • #941
  • Sep 23, 2016 3:28pm Sep 23, 2016 3:28pm
Quoting Dennis1468
{image}
866
  • #942
  • Sep 24, 2016 12:29am Sep 24, 2016 12:29am
Quoting dennis1468
{quote} 866
repetition ???

Attached Image
  • #943
  • Edited 12:55am Sep 24, 2016 12:37am | Edited 12:55am
Quoting davidman
{quote} repetition ??? {image}

Hi Dave yes, exactly rep your blue box is high proberbility, we attack up or we fade back to lower value nfp. If its well defended market has 2 choices.

Go Sideways or attemped to break back to prior NFP

Your lowest red arrow yes possible market may fade the move back to lower NFP, level. The very least you will get there is a positive 20 pips bounce on your initial entry/odds on your side/you have zeroed in on the sweet spots
  • #944
  • Sep 24, 2016 3:28am Sep 24, 2016 3:28am
Nfp train station

1 - scheduled transit times pre - published
2 - route changes each month but only two options

in range or target prior nfp range

3 -fuel stop - fmoc
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 123Chart_GBP_USD_15 Mins_snapshot (1).png Size: 57 KB
  • #945
  • Sep 24, 2016 3:32am Sep 24, 2016 3:32am
the above chart is the basis for any auto trade EA we use. and as you can imagine entry rules are simple.

If you wanna back test and you dont have News Feed for levels - Compensate with interface parameters pre flight 6 months levels is more then enough manual data entry. As you dont run the EA on NFP day for live trading. You run on the next business day after. And turn of before the next NFP
  • #946
  • Sep 24, 2016 3:48am Sep 24, 2016 3:48am
lesson 2
how to manage trades

to be continued
  • #947
  • Sep 24, 2016 3:50am Sep 24, 2016 3:50am
I know all the programmers will be well busy now - do it its worth it - dont be afraid to post ur back test results un tuned
  • #948
  • Sep 24, 2016 3:51am Sep 24, 2016 3:51am
Quoting Dennis1468
I know all the programmers will be well busy now - do it its worth it - dont be afraid to post ur back test results un tuned

i WILL DIAL IN FOR YOU JUST IF YOU NEED HELP ON THE RULES...............
  • #949
  • Edited 1:58pm Sep 24, 2016 1:05pm | Edited 1:58pm
UJ Overview Pre - Market 9/24

Keep in mind, bulls will be looking to defend the previous weeks low of 100, for a shot at taking price bid through 102 80 NFP Low and into the 2 weeks high of 103 +. And if the bulls can reestablish acceptance above 102 80 , much more upside could be seen, likely into 104 and 107
Given recent rejection below 102 80 and 101 50, the 100 previous weeks low remains the major level to watch for early directional bias.

Failure to hold this level, and certainly a daily close below it, would easily pave the way to new lows into downside targets at 99 and 80 50.

The path of least resistance is still down, but bulls have a shot for a decent bounce if they can defend 100 NFP JULY LOW and 101 50/HANDLE/HALF

Take note Finger prints traded at 103.40 but were rejected, Bears narrowed to the stop 103 60 At the print
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FCChart_USD_JPY_30 Mins_snapshot.png Size: 145 KB
  • #950
  • Sep 24, 2016 11:48pm Sep 24, 2016 11:48pm
Quoting Dennis1468
If we say lets say on EJ the average ADR is 110 then we need to be that range for a 80 pip target and within 30 pips for its anticipated daily value area for entry So the closer to those 2 levels we are the least chance we have to get filled as we are on the limit of both ends for a day trade. So we need to at least be a bit more messy then being precise coz precise wont get you filled that often on both sides entry and TP. Example over last few days was me (Remember market order buy UJ at 100 not filled) mist by I think 20 pips. So then now you...
Yes understand thanks and looks right on review except try to avoid the news as usdcad was lower value friday and if yu tried to short the ov level you got creamed when the news came out. I think caution on narrow days and overlapping days as well? but apart from this buy low sell high. Also any comments on the gap above below cpr at the open in Asia? cheers
  • #951
  • Edited 1:53am Sep 25, 2016 1:41am | Edited 1:53am
Quoting dabs99
{quote} Yes understand thanks and looks right on review except try to avoid the news as usdcad was lower value friday and if yu tried to short the ov level you got creamed when the news came out. I think caution on narrow days and overlapping days as well? but apart from this buy low sell high. Also any comments on the gap above below cpr at the open in Asia? cheers

Very Good, HOWEVER LOOK AT ADR RED LINES. CURRENT DAY REPRESENTS PRIOR DAY (CAD WAS OUTSIDE ADR. SNAP BACK RIGHT ON A BIG MONTHLY PIVOT TO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadChart_USD_CAD_15 Mins_snapshot.png Size: 29 KB
  • #952
  • Sep 25, 2016 1:51am Sep 25, 2016 1:51am
YOU CANT WIN EM ALL
  • #953
  • Sep 25, 2016 3:07am Sep 25, 2016 3:07am
Quoting Dennis1468
YOU CANT WIN EM ALL
Yes very true. What I am trying to do is limit the known possible damage as there maybe enough unaware of damage so at least there is some control and if you have a bunch of pairs to trade then you should have at least a trade or 2 daily with a nice clear directional cpr and no news.

Those gaps/spikes at the asia open really seem to trend did anyone notice?

cheers
  • #954
  • Sep 25, 2016 4:32am Sep 25, 2016 4:32am
Quoting dabs99
{quote} Yes very true. What I am trying to do is limit the known possible damage as there maybe enough unaware of damage so at least there is some control and if you have a bunch of pairs to trade then you should have at least a trade or 2 daily with a nice clear directional cpr and no news. Those gaps/spikes at the asia open really seem to trend did anyone notice? cheers

Yes That works. My EA i manually dial in if its only buying or selling. hedging 30 pips beyond ADR on negatives.....Based on repetition then it could be buy on S2 daily void if s 2 is above r 1 monthly and so on................. EA manual inputs work.

Or sell R1 if the morning trades below pp - sell r 1 target pp...........examples

Sell Nfp low only on 2nd touch if market achieved 30 pips + below prior to 2nd touch at nfp low. short cover on NFP High and so on examples
  • #955
  • Edited 11:03am Sep 25, 2016 4:53am | Edited 11:03am
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} Very Good, HOWEVER LOOK AT ADR RED LINES. CURRENT DAY REPRESENTS PRIOR DAY (CAD WAS OUTSIDE ADR. SNAP BACK RIGHT ON A BIG MONTHLY PIVOT TO {image}

in day trading you must pay attention to the Position traders and Swing traders levels as those are the ones that out influence the daily levels when they cross paths.

Before entering the market I ask myself the following

1 are we trading below od above Monthly S1 or R1. Our we below or above Monthly pp.

Our the fundamental long or Short i.e. QE/Hike

is the candle open above or below pp

in the initial balance wide or narrow.

Where is the market going to which NFP level
Has market been sideways inside overlapping

Are we trending

Are we fading Edges (Ranging)
  • #956
  • Sep 25, 2016 11:03am Sep 25, 2016 11:03am
Knowledge is like a labyrinth! once your inside you wont know where it will lead.
  • #957
  • Edited 3:17pm Sep 25, 2016 3:07pm | Edited 3:17pm
I dont understand your screen shot on the GU, are you saying that we should be buyers at July NFP low at 1.2880 area ??
  • #958
  • Sep 25, 2016 3:28pm Sep 25, 2016 3:28pm
Quoting pipsquick16
I dont understand your screen shot on the GU, are you saying that we should be buyers at July NFP low at 1.2880 area ??

Think of it this way buy low sell high, I definitely would not want to get caught short at levels this low in the cycle of GU
  • #959
  • Sep 25, 2016 5:32pm Sep 25, 2016 5:32pm
Quoting Dennis1468
Go back and find this UJ {image}
Hi Dennis am i right in saying that nfp price usually happens at/around monthly S1 or R1 levels?

and once we have got the current monthly nfp high and low where is the price expected to head towards? is it to the previous nfp level or somewhere like monthly S1 or R1?

p.s Thanks for sharing this invaluable information of yours
  • #960
  • Sep 25, 2016 5:40pm Sep 25, 2016 5:40pm
Fade... 25pip trade... Khalas! now tired.... rest needed ... Yanni I just need some sleep

Thanks D!
Attached Image
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
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