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The Swamp

  • #9,181
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:35am Sep 22, 2016 3:35am
I am back in the YEN trade again expecting YEN to get back over 101 again soon.
  • #9,182
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:58am Sep 22, 2016 3:58am
Quoting stylinex
I am back in the YEN trade again expecting YEN to get back over 101 again soon.
same here, debating on waiting for 102.20+ or 102.75+.. goldman says 107.. i usually go against goldman, if 107 happens.. 113 has a norm shot. these are small compared to 67.xx much older larger target (years in the making). last trip to 103.5x may have been enough.. but waiting for 113 although it may never get there. may be safer
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,183
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:59am Sep 22, 2016 3:59am
Quoting longshot_nl
uj could become a gartley too. although it seems a bit to early to tell.. 100.05 seems to me like a good place to buy. shorter term want to sell. maybe either a break below 101.7 before a retrace or a retrace now to somewhere below 103.35. i don't know. but i want to sell the retrace. {image}
uj missed by 2 pips. now +70
gu missed by 10 pips or so, now +140
usdchf missed by 15, now +120
eu stopped out by 2 pips, now +111
au first +75, then stopped out.
i could find more of this week.

crap.
  • #9,184
  • Sep 22, 2016 4:26am Sep 22, 2016 4:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} same here, debating on waiting for 102.20+ or 102.75+.. goldman says 107.. i usually go against goldman, if 107 happens.. 113 has a norm shot. these are small compared to 67.xx much older larger target (years in the making). last trip to 103.5x may have been enough.. but waiting for 113 although it may never get there. may be safer
Goldman and Morgan Stanley usually seem to make calls in complete opposite directions. Almost like one calls tails and the other one calls heads. I have found the previous finance minister of Japan to be more accurate in his calls. I am hanging on to my longs for the YEN for now. 103 would be nice for a start. Would be happy to see that 113 before the end of this year
  • #9,185
  • Sep 22, 2016 4:45am Sep 22, 2016 4:45am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} s/o, still think 1260 could happen. may try again @ 1133.
eu now in not moving phase before tagging 1262?
finger print looks ok to me.
  • #9,186
  • Sep 22, 2016 5:39am Sep 22, 2016 5:39am
Quoting Forexcube
take a look at usdmxn, please - big monthly cci14 divergence (without any "nuclear risk", IMO) I'm short @ 18.6260
#9'157

..& once again
usdmxn, short @ 19.622

favored aspects to take the a-train south.
monthly divergence could manage the power.
  • #9,187
  • Sep 22, 2016 5:43am Sep 22, 2016 5:43am
Sold SPX500
f(z)=z2+c
  • #9,188
  • Sep 22, 2016 7:55am Sep 22, 2016 7:55am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Goldman and Morgan Stanley usually seem to make calls in complete opposite directions. Almost like one calls tails and the other one calls heads. I have found the previous finance minister of Japan to be more accurate in his calls. I am hanging on to my longs for the YEN for now. 103 would be nice for a start. Would be happy to see that 113 before the end of this year
last time it went to 103.5.. could be it.. it's a aggressive one. i closed mine from 103.xx. but atm i picked up another small short. the tinhat toward eu 1.17 to 1.2427 and gu 1.39 would fall inline with uj reaching some lower lows toward 67.xx.. to me the world is about to take a dump.. boj ecb ect, cant crash their banks. i dont think they can drop much further if at all.

world reset, back 40 plus years.. a place nobody has experienced
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,189
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:24am Sep 22, 2016 8:24am
Quoting gatorinla
some news coming. ecb may not be able to soften rates so much further if at all. it's harder for banks to profit at low/negative rates. low/negative rates put the normal private banking system in a less profitable position. it has a balance that could be pushed too far toward systemic. plus the fed still has not raised. this does not hurt my techs. some eu R 1251 and gu 3081 may be present. strength unknown. with fed "no raise" and higher tech attractions, these R's may not mean much. but the market may wait wait for ecb news.. if dragis...
u.s markets open soon.. bulls challenge R looks to be tested.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,190
  • Sep 22, 2016 8:49am Sep 22, 2016 8:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} last time it went to 103.5.. could be it.. it's a aggressive one. i closed mine from 103.xx. but atm i picked up another small short. the tinhat toward eu 1.17 to 1.2427 and gu 1.39 would fall inline with uj reaching some lower lows toward 67.xx.. to me the world is about to take a dump.. boj ecb ect, cant crash their banks. i dont think they can drop much further if at all. world reset, back 40 plus years.. a place nobody has experienced
closed manual -3, didnt get a kneejerk in my direction..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,191
  • Sep 22, 2016 11:31am Sep 22, 2016 11:31am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} uj missed by 2 pips. now +70 gu missed by 10 pips or so, now +140 usdchf missed by 15, now +120 eu stopped out by 2 pips, now +111 au first +75, then stopped out. i could find more of this week. crap.
i add this one to the list.
missed by 5 now +30
i leave it hanging there, maybe i get lucky. haha funny.

Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} eu now in not moving phase before tagging 1262? finger print looks ok to me.
  • #9,192
  • Sep 22, 2016 1:22pm Sep 22, 2016 1:22pm
1197 may be some eu support. at 1204 atm.. 1226/35 may be some r today also
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,193
  • Sep 22, 2016 1:39pm Sep 22, 2016 1:39pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} i add this one to the list. missed by 5 now +30 i leave it hanging there, maybe i get lucky. haha funny. {quote}
i know the feeling, my pending @1261 got missed too but sold some on market, pending still active. I wont be surprised if it gets back there..
  • #9,194
  • Sep 22, 2016 1:45pm Sep 22, 2016 1:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
1197 may be some eu support. at 1204 atm.. 1226/35 may be some r today also
gu 3067 area,, testing now. 3045 ish another
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,195
  • Sep 22, 2016 1:53pm Sep 22, 2016 1:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} last time it went to 103.5.. could be it.. it's a aggressive one. i closed mine from 103.xx. but atm i picked up another small short. the tinhat toward eu 1.17 to 1.2427 and gu 1.39 would fall inline with uj reaching some lower lows toward 67.xx.. to me the world is about to take a dump.. boj ecb ect, cant crash their banks. i dont think they can drop much further if at all. world reset, back 40 plus years.. a place nobody has experienced
I reckon we clear 101 tomorrow when Asian markets open up. Japan should try and weaken the YEN tomorrow. I still have my long position open and will let it run for the time being.
  • #9,196
  • Edited 2:40pm Sep 22, 2016 2:05pm | Edited 2:40pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I reckon we clear 101 tomorrow when Asian markets open up. Japan should try and weaken the YEN tomorrow. I still have my long position open and will let it run for the time being.
they can try,, but collapsing a country's banks is where it points. japan may have run out of runway
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #9,197
  • Edited 10:32pm Sep 22, 2016 2:24pm | Edited 10:32pm
just sell a little usdjpy sl 100.96

Edit: s/o
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,198
  • Sep 22, 2016 2:40pm Sep 22, 2016 2:40pm
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
{quote} i know the feeling, my pending @1261 got missed too but sold some on market, pending still active. I wont be surprised if it gets back there..
thanks, ok lets wait. life is still better with small stops though. missing trades or a few pips is something else altogether then losing a lot of pips because of big stops.
even if eu breaks down 1122 it could retrace to 1244 so enough chances could be there before 1.06 (if that happens before 2470).
gu in opposite direction.
If true eg would go down. which is inline with the possible libra on eurgbp.
who knows, first i need to score entries.
  • #9,199
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:02pm Sep 22, 2016 9:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} they can try,, but collapsing a country's banks is where it points. japan may have run out of runway
I hope the YEN continues to depreciate. Cleared 101 as expected today
  • #9,200
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:11pm Sep 22, 2016 9:11pm
anyone looking at GN longs and NU shorts here?
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