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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,841
  • Sep 20, 2016 3:23pm Sep 20, 2016 3:23pm
hi fti

goodnite my friend, back an hour or so before euro open .

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #55,842
  • Edited Sep 21, 2016 1:04am Sep 20, 2016 3:28pm | Edited Sep 21, 2016 1:04am
Quoting phil13
hi fti goodnite my friend, back an hour or so before euro open . regards Phil.
goodnite. no bite.

regards
  • #55,843
  • Sep 20, 2016 9:34pm Sep 20, 2016 9:34pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Ray survive then thrive, my friend . regards Phil.
Hi Phil

Noted - much agree.
Thanks.

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,844
  • Sep 20, 2016 9:36pm Sep 20, 2016 9:36pm
Quoting fti
{quote} chasing? ok now chasing markets? it hurts too hor. stop chasing , stalk em. ai ya fti again. regards
Hi FTI

Oh shrugs, yea, actually, I didnt thought of that.
Crap.. stalking easier?? ok, I think I got some stalking skills in my box. Ooops.

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,845
  • Edited 10:22pm Sep 20, 2016 9:36pm | Edited 10:22pm
Quoting fti
{quote} ahhhh listen to crocodile phil. yu got new nick name phil.thanks to alex. okok market croc phil. reminds me of my friend in Wardley hsbc. the 1st market croc. regards

Yes I am sure Phil have got some crocs hired for his security team too. hehheee

Rgds


at the end, putin deploys AOW

Inserted Video
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,846
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:19am Sep 21, 2016 1:19am
Will be in battlefield by Coming JAN.


Leaving the Titan, now can load my troops.....Back to NYC.....
  • #55,847
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:43am Sep 21, 2016 1:43am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hi FTI Oh shrugs, yea, actually, I didnt thought of that. Crap.. stalking easier?? ok, I think I got some stalking skills in my box. Ooops. Rgds
have?
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  • #55,848
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:49am Sep 21, 2016 1:49am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Will be in battlefield by Coming JAN. Leaving the Titan, now can load my troops.....Back to NYC.....
ahhhh building your own titan soon.

regards
  • #55,849
  • Sep 21, 2016 2:35am Sep 21, 2016 2:35am
eur at the walled city this morning......... what'll it do....... let it tell us.....what is the plan?

Jupiter nice explanation played out perfectly as above so below... trend is our friend.

Thank you Jupter
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,850
  • Edited 12:15pm Sep 21, 2016 3:33am | Edited 12:15pm
Quoting fti
{quote} have? {image}
No have.
Have tried to look into the scout hand book when going through thread, to not much positive results.
ie by Sir Robert Baden Powell and the games such as http://www.inquiry.net/outdoor/games/b-p/stalking.htm

I did however, look into the military scout way of tracking spoors(manage to find more resources). Pondered on the concepts and found that these is very much combining chart reading and analyzing. However, the difference between reading and analyzing is quite huge. Hence, I find my journey here elementary and below as with TA.
Any good reads or clips?

Rgds


BOJ delivered, but price almost reverse to pre release level now.
I actually, am not sure what it means. I understand that yen weakness is long term, but the measures in place.. not sure how they work or the mechanics.

C/P from FXL

  1. Keeps negative rate unchanged
  2. To expand monetary base until inflation stable above 2%
  3. To modify its policy framework
  4. Adopts QQE with yield curve control
  5. To keep buying JGBs so balance of its holdings increases at annual pace of 80 trln yen
  6. Introduces new market ops for yield curve control
  7. Depending on market conditions may set JGB purchase size per auction to fixed amount or unlimited amount
  8. Purchasing yields will be set per auction by indicating the spread from the benchmark yield which BOJ determines separately
  9. Makes amendment to ETF purchases
  10. Decides to set target for long term interest rates
  11. Maintains -0.1 pct negative interest rate
  12. To abandon monetary base target
  13. Says no official base money target, but maintains annual pace of JGB buying at 80 trln yen
  14. To buy JGBs so 10 yr yield hovers around 0 pct
  15. Scraps range for duration of JGBs that BOJ buys
  16. Adopts commitment to let inflation overshoot above 2 pct
  17. BOJ can cut short term policy rate, target level of long term rates in future easing
  18. BOJ may accelerate expansion of monetary base as future policy option
  19. BOJ to continue expanding monetary base until CPI exceeds 2% and stays above target in stable manner
  20. Pace of monetary base increase may fluctuate in short run under market op that aims to control yield curve
  21. Ready to conduct fixed rate JGB buying ops for 10-yr, 20-yr JGBs in case interest rates spike
  22. To make yield curve control a centrepiece of its new policy framework -> ?? shall see
  23. Maintains commitment to achieve 2% inflation at earliest date possible
  24. Adopted new policy framework with view that further rise in inflation expectations may take time


more here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-unchanged-off

I am quite curious about yield control curve, and how they going to work it.
and, where they going to get the $, and what are the future generation % will be, heck, how they going forward with this?? so much debt, and seemingly like a blank cheque

oh yea, be good to long the nikkei to the moon

actually, i also dont get why yen gets bought again. this is so negative yen.. clearing their house?

gold up for day
also, 2-y trea yield @ .8% .. boy is she moving or what

update// oil big draw ! -- seem to be given the light sabre
what a messy board

/quote/

Hey David,
Please do not confuse about the facts, by these kind of speculative analysis.

The facts is that most of the CBs had used the monetary policy to shore off the recession of which they were in denial about close to the mid of last year. All monetary policy ammo is spent, since then. There is but a token rate for depos.

The only Ammo left now is fiscal policy and industrial management prudence to revive the economies.

Whether the interest rates goes negative yeild or not will have little impact. Unless fiscal policy stimulants are able to bootstrap the econmies again monetary policies are spent ie finished.

We are taking about productivity and confidence.
Monetary policy , I say again, is spent. (finish)

So I would like to leave that with the crystal ballers. Not interested to go there. I also suggest that you stop flogging a dead horse. It is dead.

regards"
/endquote/

Fti.. is this one of the probable reason why the YEN is being hammered this year as well and that NIRP have failed to result in selling/negative prices for currency?

Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,851
  • Sep 21, 2016 6:34pm Sep 21, 2016 6:34pm
Quoting fti
ahhh yes inuit, that putS things in a whole new perspective. yes is better to eat than to be eaaten. One thing i learned in life from trading. Most people need to win every battle they encounter. For me i only need to win the critical battles. small fights i allow others to run rings around me mostly. And i learn so much more about life from the lessons. The only important fights are the critical battles. For some every battle is critical. But life is horrible like that. Can any one win every battle? To learn this, is not an easy task. Just look...
such hard task to find these bad traits, making change slowly...
  • #55,852
  • Edited Sep 22, 2016 1:38am Sep 21, 2016 6:59pm | Edited Sep 22, 2016 1:38am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} No have. Have tried to look into the scout hand book when going through thread, to not much positive results. ie by Sir Robert Baden Powell and the games such as http://www.inquiry.net/outdoor/games/b-p/stalking.htm I did however, look into the military scout way of tracking spoors(manage to find more resources). Pondered on the concepts and found that these is very much combining chart reading and analyzing. However, the difference between reading and analyzing is quite huge. Hence, I find my journey here elementary and below...
Lets see if i can help you with analysis.


and the people who trades based on market opening price is the most stupid of all.

WHY? because the market opens at equilibrium. Unless the market finds the eq, it will refuse to open, or gap away extreme to open.
At any time in the now, the markets are at eq, Its perpectually at eq in the NOW.
  • #55,853
  • Edited Sep 22, 2016 3:36am Sep 21, 2016 11:05pm | Edited Sep 22, 2016 3:36am
Quoting fti
{quote} Lets see if i can help you with analysis. What you are doing in your mind is not analysis. What you are doing is, trying to find logic in the info you have. IN markets, THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS logic. Take the logic , behind negative rates to spur growth. If i try to logic that, my brain would explode. Whats happening is that they are trying ideas and trying to find a winfall result. Logic, if i have money in the bank and they want charge me interest for keeping it there. You would believe i would be so STUPID? My depos would flee. What...
Hi FTI

You are right, I am trying to logic it.
Much thanks for putting me in right direction. I get what you mean now. It is irrelevant for logic.

Quote
-Gauge the market reaction to the info-
In other words, whatever the market reaction, my job is to buy or sell, after assessing whos in control. Right?
So, the right frame of mind, for example, UJ yesterday after FOMC would be to go on sell and duck hunt

My interpretation ..
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A clean one for you, in case I mess up too bad
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Quote
In a bull market , if reaction is bullish, just means some bears are caught flat footed.
Thats why there is the saying. "Buy the rumour , sell the fact."

Mind if I take that into the chart above context?
It is a bear market, however, not sure what to make of the reaction. Felt disappointed? Expecting a hike or more hawkish? Market expecting more, but left empty handed. Hence, bulls left table and bears resume at higher levels.

Actually, do you instead mean, "In a bear market, if reaction is bullish, just means some bears are caught flat footed."


Noted. Market place story, its market way of dealing with the flow of market participants.(editted, this makes more sense) How to deal if not agreed on price. Hence, the moving spread to meet the on-going buyer and seller pace

Thanks and much appreciate for explanation.

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,854
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:07am Sep 22, 2016 3:07am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hi FTI You are right, I am trying to logic it. Much thanks for putting me in right direction. I get what you mean now. It is irrelevant for logic. {quote} In other words, whatever the market reaction, my job is to buy or sell, after assessing whos in control. Right? So, the right frame of mind, for example, UJ yesterday after FOMC would be to go on sell and duck hunt My interpretation .. {image} A clean one for you, in case I mess up too bad {image} {quote} Mind if I take that into the chart above context? It is a bear market, however, not...

I am no expert or anything but at end of day we will see peeps who gambled long and hung on in there get depressed and sell longs as fed up and peeps who take short profits as you say and peeps who guess the end of down as it surely cannot go on much more only for it to go back short again. Also are we at any walls & what is reaction to them? If trend reactions last longer in time and look stronger and start trending then sign down is over for now.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,855
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:07am Sep 22, 2016 3:07am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Market place story, who cares about yesterday price. How to deal if cannot agree on price. Hence, the moving spread to meet the on-going buyer and seller pace. Thanks and much appreciate for explanation. Rgds

Its not who cares about yesterdays price mentality.
From yesterday's price we have benchmark prices to continue the dance. Is footprints in the snow.
Yesterdays behaviours tells you history of where the river had been and what kinda bunch you dealing with.
How they behaves and what happens when they panic. These helps you have ball park picture of what you're dealing with.
Mostly, it more than the required margin asked for.

you can tell the state of a dog by its tail. you can tell the state of the market by her smile.

regards
  • #55,856
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:29am Sep 22, 2016 3:29am
Quoting fti
{quote} Its not who cares about yesterdays price mentality. From yesterday's price we have benchmark prices to continue the dance. Is footprints in the snow. Yesterdays behaviours tells you history of where the river had been and what kinda bunch you dealing with. How they behaves and what happens when they panic. These helps you have ball park picture of what you're dealing with. Mostly, it more than the required margin asked for. you can tell the state of a dog by its tail. you can tell the state of the market by her smile. regards
ah yes yes, you are right. i stand corrected. will rephrase.
Quote
"you can tell the state of a dog by its tail. you can tell the state of the market by her smile."

very charming my friend.

Quote
How they behaves and what happens when they panic. These helps you have ball park picture of what you're dealing with.
Mostly, it more than the required margin asked for.
this is deep

rgds


rephrased;
Quote
Noted. Market place story, its market way of dealing with the flow of market participants.(editted, this makes more sense) How to deal if not agreed on price. Hence, the moving spread to meet the on-going buyer and seller pace.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,857
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:31am Sep 22, 2016 3:31am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I am no expert or anything but at end of day we will see peeps who gambled long and hung on in there get depressed and sell longs as fed up and peeps who take short profits as you say and peeps who guess the end of down as it surely cannot go on much more only for it to go back short again. Also are we at any walls & what is reaction to them? If trend reactions last longer in time and look stronger and start trending then sign down is over for now. Alex

hi alex,

yes, we do get a story dont we... fti mentions the difference between, reading, analyzing and flowing once, i think in another thread... i guess i am not accustomed to it well enough to do it subconsciously

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,858
  • Edited 7:10am Sep 22, 2016 5:49am | Edited 7:10am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hi FTI You are right, I am trying to logic it. Much thanks for putting me in right direction. I get what you mean now. It is irrelevant for logic. {quote} In other words, whatever the market reaction, my job is to buy or sell, after assessing whos in control. Right? So, the right frame of mind, for example, UJ yesterday after FOMC would be to go on sell and duck hunt My interpretation .. {image} A clean one for you, in case I mess up too bad {image} {quote} Mind if I take that into the chart above context? It is a bear market, however, not...
hi, if you interested, gann's truth of the stock tape and jesse livermore's reminiscences of a stock operator should help if relating pa to the news as probes.

Though 1 thing you might want to figure out is how far are you looking ahead, with respect to the news, like boj in the morning and fomc at night, surely the pa will be different if boj in the morning and no fomc at night. If there is fomc, who wants to be left holding the bag? But if no fomc, nothing much can be said so we just observe pa.



The key is how the players might act, the numbers honest don't mean much if you are day trading. If you are fundamental or macro trading, then it's not my niche so no comments on that
  • #55,859
  • Sep 22, 2016 7:11am Sep 22, 2016 7:11am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi, if you interested, gann's truth of the stock tape and jesse livermore's reminiscences of a stock operator should help if relating pa to the news as probes.
hello,
noted, thanks. have read reminiscences of stock operator but not ganns book truth of stock tape.
how much would you rate the book?

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,860
  • Edited 7:38am Sep 22, 2016 7:15am | Edited 7:38am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} hello, noted, thanks. have read reminiscences of stock operator but not ganns book truth of stock tape. how much would you rate the book? rgds
10 out of 5 stars, one of the best book around. I learnt alot from those 2 book and here.

But there is 1 more if you interested in understanding macro, but it does not have anything to do with number.

if you read truth of the stock tape, and jesse livermore's reminiscence of the stock operator and gann's tunnel thru the air.

compare it with the the 2008 crisis and the flows to china with china keep buying USD bonds.
you can begin to see and identify the macro shifts in relationship between the major currency pairs as well as their countries commodities, stocks, bonds and cash, i.e r03k extended to macro picture

commodities and stocks and bonds and currencies, see how they flow, their price action, then see the news, see if price is supporting the view or not.
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