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How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value

  • #821
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:38pm Sep 21, 2016 1:38pm
watching EU to gauge UJ
  • #822
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:40pm Sep 21, 2016 1:40pm
eu goes up uj goes down
  • #823
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:47pm Sep 21, 2016 1:47pm
Quoting Dennis1468
popping now hopefully
Yellen is HOT!! hehe

Wonder if she'll get to 100.00... come on..!!!
  • #824
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:50pm Sep 21, 2016 1:50pm
Quoting davidman
{quote} Yellen is HOT!! hehe Wonder if she'll get to 100.00... come on..!!!
if i scalp another 10 pips at 100 50 i will truly go insane and anything will look hot
  • #825
  • Sep 21, 2016 1:52pm Sep 21, 2016 1:52pm
Inserted Video
  • #826
  • Edited 2:10pm Sep 21, 2016 1:55pm | Edited 2:10pm
Quoting Dennis1468
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0p_dBCEDs4
that was crap, nothing happened ..tom is another day....over and out
  • #827
  • Sep 21, 2016 4:37pm Sep 21, 2016 4:37pm
Hi Dennis.

In regard to entry pip parameters, I didn't understand some of your terms you used so may I attempt to clarify them. Apologies in advance for being a pain in
the neck.
Quote "Its variable. Tight on if Daily levels if Confluence with a Handle or a half. Loose on Monthly if slow momentum. Tight on if hard and fast = hard return. Slow on normally is 30 pip plus outside/inside Monthly R/S and if Mthly pp on the mark/gap fade
Swing Weekly similar to Daily Fade the move

1) Confluence with Handle - This is the Cup & Handle pattern which is a strong continuation signal which gives you the confidence to add a tight new stop entry close to the handle/Daily pivot confluence.

2) Half - When a position is half closed in profit new positions, both buy stop and sell stop, are taken close to the half close/Daily pivot confluence.

3) So these parameters will obviously change depending on whether the pivots are Monthly, Weekly and Daily and also looking at the big picture, repetition, price action, previous hi/lo etc. and epecially confluence.

I guess nothing is wriitten in stone and entries, stops etc. must be placed on merit.

Thanks again.
  • #828
  • Sep 21, 2016 9:40pm Sep 21, 2016 9:40pm
I closed for a 1% loss as it appears lower today again. I think I prefer the cpr buying selling than news events as to be honest you have no idea what they are going to say at news time and if you are already in a position and the news is wrong for you then of course you get taken to the cleaners. Seems like a coin toss to me.
  • #829
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:13am Sep 22, 2016 3:13am
Quoting dabs99
I closed for a 1% loss as it appears lower today again. I think I prefer the cpr buying selling than news events as to be honest you have no idea what they are going to say at news time and if you are already in a position and the news is wrong for you then of course you get taken to the cleaners. Seems like a coin toss to me.

"i hate the market sometimes just checked buy at 100 not picked up"................Market order not filled............
  • #830
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:17am Sep 22, 2016 3:17am
all the yen pairs appear lower value today and currently back at cpr so I suppose we will find out soon
  • #831
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:21am Sep 22, 2016 3:21am
Quoting davidman
Hi Dennis. In regard to entry pip parameters, I didn't understand some of your terms you used so may I attempt to clarify them. Apologies in advance for being a pain in the neck. Quote "Its variable. Tight on if Daily levels if Confluence with a Handle or a half. Loose on Monthly if slow momentum. Tight on if hard and fast = hard return. Slow on normally is 30 pip plus outside/inside Monthly R/S and if Mthly pp on the mark/gap fade Swing Weekly similar to Daily Fade the move 1) Confluence with Handle - This is the Cup & Handle pattern which is a...
Hi Dennis.

In regard to entry pip parameters, I didn't understand some of your terms you used so may I attempt to clarify them. Apologies in advance for being a pain in
the neck.
Quote "Its variable. Tight on if Daily levels if Confluence with a Handle or a half.

Means pivot and value same. like pp is at 100 (Handle) pp is at 100 50 (Half) good value



Loose on Monthly if slow momentum(When the market moves at snail pase to the monthlyit normall gaps above around 30 pip as slow moves take longer to stop) . Tight on if hard and fast = hard return. (As with nfp low we hit that fast and got kicked back fast so tight entry on the line) d Slow on normally is 30 pip plus outside/inside Monthly R/S and if Mthly pp on the mark/gap fade
Swing Weekly similar to Daily Fade the move

1) Confluence with Handle - This is the Cup & Handle pattern which is a strong continuation signal which gives you the confidence to add a tight new stop entry close to the handle/Daily pivot confluence. When ever you have a Fibo/a pivot and a handle all matching its confluence which is powerful entry)

2) Half - When a position is half closed in profit new positions, both buy stop and sell stop, are taken close to the half close/Daily pivot confluence.
Buy Stop and sell stop we normally mean TP and entry for example I prefer to sell stop then tp a trade. Example I buy at 100 why take profit at 50. Sell stop cover first half/Hedge


3) So these parameters will obviously change depending on whether the pivots are Monthly, Weekly and Daily and also looking at the big picture, repetition, price action, previous hi/lo etc. and epecially confluence.

I guess nothing is wriitten in stone and entries, stops etc. must be placed on merit.

Thanks again.
  • #832
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:25am Sep 22, 2016 3:25am
Quoting davidman
Hi Dennis. In regard to entry pip parameters, I didn't understand some of your terms you used so may I attempt to clarify them. Apologies in advance for being a pain in the neck. Quote "Its variable. Tight on if Daily levels if Confluence with a Handle or a half. Loose on Monthly if slow momentum. Tight on if hard and fast = hard return. Slow on normally is 30 pip plus outside/inside Monthly R/S and if Mthly pp on the mark/gap fade Swing Weekly similar to Daily Fade the move 1) Confluence with Handle - This is the Cup & Handle pattern which is a...

This statement you made is 100%

I guess nothing is wriitten in stone and entries, stops etc. must be placed on merit.

Exactly so we trade our best anticipated repetitions. And we pretty much know what happens next if we get failure at a level. Hence I wanna fill 100 but cant, hence last night said close 100 80 on the gap back. For sure we going lower to that last line of defense as in chart plan. i.e. 101 50 will be devastating for Bulls.
  • #833
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:55am Sep 22, 2016 3:55am
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} "i hate the market sometimes just checked buy at 100 not picked up"................Market order not filled............

that would have been 80 pips right here......cant beat yourself over it these repetitions happen every day
  • #834
  • Sep 22, 2016 4:39am Sep 22, 2016 4:39am
If market breaks the 100 level down I will check in with you guys. if we get trading over 101 I will check in...for now sit back and chill
  • #835
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:44am Sep 22, 2016 6:44am
Quoting dabs99
I closed for a 1% loss as it appears lower today again. I think I prefer the cpr buying selling than news events as to be honest you have no idea what they are going to say at news time and if you are already in a position and the news is wrong for you then of course you get taken to the cleaners. Seems like a coin toss to me.
Pity you closed this trade. I use the "Position Size Calculator" mt4 indicator. If you put the green line on your entry and the red on your intended stop loss it
will instantly calculate the Lot Size you should trade based on your Risk, Equity or Balance settings which you can alter to your personal preferences.
So if your entry was 101.50 and you used Dennis' plan and used either 100.00 or 99.50 as your stop loss you would still be in this trade and well within your 1%
risk.
The torquiose line simply shows profit to risk ratio if you use profit targets.

Just trying to help... not trying to be a know-it-all which I'm not. I learned prudent Money Management the hard way... probably the most important forex lesson
I ever learned.
  • #836
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:47am Sep 22, 2016 6:47am
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} that would have been 80 pips right here......cant beat yourself over it these repetitions happen every day
Was wondering whether you got that entry based on pip parameters.

No worry I also missed it..

Cheers
  • #837
  • Sep 22, 2016 7:27am Sep 22, 2016 7:27am
Quoting Dennis1468
If market breaks the 100 level down I will check in with you guys. if we get trading over 101 I will check in...for now sit back and chill
Hi Dennis,

You've mentioned you never/don't use a stop loss but instead use correlation hedging. Are we going to get into this at all? Otherwise can you recommend further reading/study material.

Looking at UJ... would not be a surprise to retest 100.00 and maybe lower to take out a few stops. 99.50 might also be at risk.

Any thoughts... ??
  • #838
  • Sep 22, 2016 12:22pm Sep 22, 2016 12:22pm
Quoting davidman
{quote} Pity you closed this trade. I use the "Position Size Calculator" mt4 indicator. If you put the green line on your entry and the red on your intended stop loss it will instantly calculate the Lot Size you should trade based on your Risk, Equity or Balance settings which you can alter to your personal preferences. So if your entry was 101.50 and you used Dennis' plan and used either 100.00 or 99.50 as your stop loss you would still be in this trade and well within your 1% risk. The torquiose line simply shows profit to risk ratio if you use...

yes thats really good
  • #839
  • Sep 22, 2016 12:24pm Sep 22, 2016 12:24pm
Quoting davidman
{quote} Hi Dennis, You've mentioned you never/don't use a stop loss but instead use correlation hedging. Are we going to get into this at all? Otherwise can you recommend further reading/study material. Looking at UJ... would not be a surprise to retest 100.00 and maybe lower to take out a few stops. 99.50 might also be at risk. Any thoughts... ??

Yes I will, will get into it.....need energy then we will carry this further. yes i mist the last one market order was not picked up by a few pips, i have GU anyways thats picked up at yesterdays ADR today
  • #840
  • Sep 22, 2016 12:25pm Sep 22, 2016 12:25pm
http://www.investopedia.com/university/adr/adr1.asp
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