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Career path decision

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 3:08pm Sep 21, 2016 2:32pm | Edited 3:08pm
Hi

so i'm writing one of my rare posts to get some serious feedback about my trading path.
Background: 43, family with monthly costs that needs to be covered... i'm actually working for a worldwide company in the area of digital transformation - travelling and meetings are more or less my daily job.
The last 5 years i've developed my own trading approach which is an intraday strategy in my spare time. I began serious trading 1.5 years ago and so far quite successfully with limited capital (because of different reasons) and limited time. If i would have the choice between trading and my actual job i would choose trading.

Now i'm standing here with a trading strategy that i cannot trade full-time and i'm thinking about ways of how to proceed.
What would you do?

1. Looking for investors to give up my daily job? Where would you start?
2. Looking for someone who will trade my system?
3. Selling the system and trade with this capital?
4. Looking for a prop company?
5. Starting a signal service?
....

Facts again:
1. Limited time
2. Limited capital
3. Forward-tested strategy

Thanks
pokrat
  • #2
  • Sep 22, 2016 4:38am Sep 22, 2016 4:38am
Me? I'd ditch the job, throw all caution to the wind, find out the strategy wasn't stable or reliable, think oh shit I better find something to replace it, spend *years* figuring out what I really needed to know and then come out the other end, wiser, savvier writing a post like this to someone else.

5 years of part-time trading is probably no more than 6 months of a full timer; it's a complete drop in the ocean so from this perspective it's difficult to even know the scale of what you don't know. All of your options involving other people involve a track record. If you've been doing that with limited capital, you'll find it difficult, if not impossible to entice anyone to follow your strategy/invest in your strategy/sell it on to someone else. The best you could hope for is publishing the track record and maybe getting the odd $1000 dollar accounts to follow you; the returns from this would be so small to make flipping burgers look appealing.

Prop companies have a very high churn rate. The plus of this is that it'll enforce the discipline you need to go full time, but the downside is that most fail. Those that stay on have some pretty severe charges and commissions to pay as well as strenuous targets with a rolling threat of redundancy above their heads. If you want to do this, you need a big financial cushion to fall back on in case it goes tits up.

Especially with a family, I would say this. Don't leave until one day's trading returns is at least as big, if not bigger than your daily salary pre-tax. You don't have enough capital? Grow your account. You need exceptional returns to day trade properly so growth shouldn't be an issue. Take the odd day's holiday and prove it to yourself. Get yourself a coach to hold you accountable to your targets (a coach can be someone who knows nothing about trading as opposed to trading mentors which don't really exist because useful knowledge isn't for sale... ). Good luck!
  • #3
  • Sep 22, 2016 12:54pm Sep 22, 2016 12:54pm
Quoting pokrat
Hi so i'm writing one of my rare posts to get some serious feedback about my trading path. Background: 43, family with monthly costs that needs to be covered... i'm actually working for a worldwide company in the area of digital transformation - travelling and meetings are more or less my daily job. The last 5 years i've developed my own trading approach which is an intraday strategy in my spare time. I began serious trading 1.5 years ago and so far quite successfully with limited capital (because of different reasons) and limited time. If i would...
Stay safe until you have significant trading account....Grow it organically. When your trading gains overtake your sallary ....Pergaps then take the plunge....
  • #4
  • Sep 22, 2016 2:38pm Sep 22, 2016 2:38pm
wise words...thanks Sparkoz & triphod. I think it's part of the human nature to be greedy when i'm analysing my possible trades in the evening...
  • #5
  • Sep 22, 2016 2:44pm Sep 22, 2016 2:44pm
Quoting pokrat
Hi so i'm writing one of my rare posts to get some serious feedback about my trading path. Background: 43, family with monthly costs that needs to be covered... i'm actually working for a worldwide company in the area of digital transformation - travelling and meetings are more or less my daily job. The last 5 years i've developed my own trading approach which is an intraday strategy in my spare time. I began serious trading 1.5 years ago and so far quite successfully with limited capital (because of different reasons) and limited time. If i would...
If you've truly nailed the profitable trading thing then it's really a no brainer. The fact your asking this question here where there are probably zero profitable traders is....well....I think you get it. Good luck.
  • #6
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:11pm Sep 22, 2016 3:11pm
if you are sure in your system ... may be it's time to leave your job... but I can be risky, you should think twice before doing smth.. ou must be sure in your knowledge and experience. In any case I wish you good luck)
  • #7
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:13pm Sep 22, 2016 3:13pm
to be honest: i don't have any clue about the users of FF because i don't have the time and willingness to read all the stuff here.
Coming from a Data Science background i've developed and learnend all the stuff for myself. That's more or less one of my biggest advantages (also in my job i think): seeing & understanding patterns in large datasets, deriving insights out of these patterns and - that's what most of the people forget - recommending actionable steps.

It's similar with trading: i think a lot of people understand patterns (candlesticks, trendlines, S&D etc.) but they don't have any clue of what to do with this pattern or most of the time they do the same action. Because they're missing two important things:

1. Context
2. Intent

I see a pattern like a human - the results communicating with them heavily depends from the circumstances.

And that's why they're suprised when a resistance is broken or a pinbar is suddenly not a reversal. When i understood this my trading became a "flow".

BR
pokrat
  • #8
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:53pm Sep 22, 2016 3:53pm
Quoting pokrat
to be honest: i don't have any clue about the users of FF because i don't have the time and willingness to read all the stuff here. Coming from a Data Science background i've developed and learnend all the stuff for myself. That's more or less one of my biggest advantages (also in my job i think): seeing & understanding patterns in large datasets, deriving insights out of these patterns and - that's what most of the people forget - recommending actionable steps. It's similar with trading: i think a lot of people understand patterns (candlesticks,...
Bottom line is that you've established a consistent, relatively long term pattern of profit with whatever method, system or strategy. If you've haven't done this then that is the first step. Don't quit your day job until you have. Second step is running the monthly numbers in terms of monthly expenses and how much you need to withdraw to live off. This can be a real eye opener. HAVING to make a profit to pay the bills changes everything.
  • #9
  • Sep 22, 2016 4:39pm Sep 22, 2016 4:39pm
Quoting pokrat
Hi so i'm writing one of my rare posts to get some serious feedback about my trading path. Background: 43, family with monthly costs that needs to be covered... i'm actually working for a worldwide company in the area of digital transformation - travelling and meetings are more or less my daily job. The last 5 years i've developed my own trading approach which is an intraday strategy in my spare time. I began serious trading 1.5 years ago and so far quite successfully with limited capital (because of different reasons) and limited time. If i would...
1. Having investors will dramatically change the trading dynamic for you. Some can handle it, I could not. Where can you find them? Put up a long term trade explorer online and they will find you. Prove it first and finding investors isn't a problem.
2. Take a cruise through the "Trading Systems" forum here on FF. Then ask yourself how likely would you be able to find someone who would trade exactly as you do.
3. Selling anything presents its own set of headaches. CC fraud, dealing with unhappy customers, etc etc.
4. Possibly. Not sure where you are from but check into the licensing requirements for where you live.
5. Another possibility but refer back to item 3 above. You also indicate that you have limited time.
6. Continue to build your account slowly over time until it reaches a point that it can consistently sustain you. Don't quit your day job until you have at least 1 year of salary set aside and you commit that if it drops below 6 months of salary that you will immediately begin looking for a job. Even the most consistent traders will have off months or even quarters you need to have enough set aside to ride these out. With no savings to fall back on, the pressure to perform on a daily basis will negatively impact your trading.

All 6 of the responses above come from personal experience not theory.
  • #10
  • Sep 29, 2016 7:35am Sep 29, 2016 7:35am
This is just my advice, based on my experience. It will very likely differ from everyone else because there is only one me.

The first thing I would do is develop the strategy. Then I would review months of historical trades with different pairs using the Strategy Tester. It would show me if I had issues with flutter, or head fakes, or consolidation...and if I was capable of overcoming such obstacles.

When I felt I had a sufficient strategy to absorb the losses, then I would take a week of vacation from my job and trade it like a serious trader. At the end of the week, I knew if I was ready or not. I had to do this several times actually. Some weeks are different than others, and some months are different than others. I noticed I would usually take the last week of the month to do it, and well, that week generally sucks due to low fundamentals, so my results were not very statistical.

The next thing you have to consider is: Are you a good gambler? If you are not, then your trading will suffer. Trading is 99.99999% mental. The only physical aspect is clicking your mouse, and I suppose turning on your computer. The rest is all in your head. If you have limited funds, you must be careful not to put too much emphasis on any single trade. If you cannot trade each trade as a part of the whole, you will make all the common mistakes and lose your account.

My advice? Take vacation time starting the Monday after NFP, and trade the entire week as if you were a full time trader. Evaluate your mental acuity during the week, as well as your win/lose percentage and profit gained/loss. Then answer your own question. None of us can tell you when you are ready. Only you can do that.

If you did well, but still desire job security, then convert your strategy to a higher time frame, like perhaps a 4Hr chart. That should be enough time between signals for you to monitor without getting caught. If your strategy works, then you can make money in the background of your life and allow it to accumulate until you decide to switch careers. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush philosophy. Alternatively, if you have a friend or family member who can be more serious about trading than you can, you might even trade a 30M chart as a team.

Without verified data, you cannot reach a realistic answer, and even then you might not have the gambling skills. Never forget also that a strategy is just a perceived edge. It is your edge, no one else's, so expect it to lose on occasion, (because no one else is using your edge) and develop counter-measures for those events. If you cannot do it yourself, try to teach a reliable person how to help you. Good Luck Make SURE you are a professional gambler, mentally trading by probabilities, or you WILL lose.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #11
  • Sep 29, 2016 7:57am Sep 29, 2016 7:57am
Wow thats really shitty advice above

show me a chart and tell me what you see.. And i will tell you.

But sorry im pretty sure i already know the answer... (I think your job sounds f awesome though)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dJeCRp8Vz8w
Time hides Nothing
  • #12
  • Last Post: Edited 10:47am Sep 29, 2016 9:49am | Edited 10:47am
Quoting pokrat
Hi so i'm writing one of my rare posts to get some serious feedback about my trading path. Background: 43, family with monthly costs that needs to be covered... i'm actually working for a worldwide company in the area of digital transformation - travelling and meetings are more or less my daily job. The last 5 years i've developed my own trading approach which is an intraday strategy in my spare time. I began serious trading 1.5 years ago and so far quite successfully with limited capital (because of different reasons) and limited time. If i would...

Truth is you need 100k to make a decent living out of trading.. trade just for fun to make extra money.
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