Need Risk money management advice - I have 85-80% winning Rate! | Forex Factory

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Need Risk money management advice - I have 85-80% winning Rate!

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 21, 2016 5:29pm Sep 21, 2016 5:29pm
Hello Forexfactory member,
Lets get straight into it! I have built a EA using a super strategy. I will leak this strategy or PM you if you help me with my issue.
So this strategy has a winning rate of 85-97% on Time frames M1-D1. Now please understand what I MEAN by "winning rate" I'm saying that 85%-97% of the signals (on the custom EA) Will always go in profit. So basically 1+ pip but normally depending on the time frame it will always be higher then 1 pip. Now my issue is money management. My system will go in profit a lot BUT it can go down A LOT before its in profit. But 85%-97% of the time it will be in profit so I'm not too worried.
The issue is I can't use Stop Loss. Also my system we do 1 signal at a time. So if we have a open buy the EA will close on opposite signal.
Also I'm guessing Trailing might be our best option.

My Issues -
I have no idea what these trailing versions are. I only know "Trail Stop" Not these.
I have no idea how to cut losses on the trade.
My EA doesn't have Doubling or tripling up, but will you think that will even work?
For backtesting how many months back should I use?

P.S Comment below or PM your settings that you would use to on These trailing settings and Take profit.
My system works on over 20 Pairs. So hit me with these settings/Timeframe/Pair and how many months back were going to test it. Remember If you help me, I sure as hell am going to put my full effort into helping you.


https://i.gyazo.com/5fcf24443fd6cd8d...fbdba4564f.png

Thanks have a good one.
  • #2
  • Sep 21, 2016 7:47pm Sep 21, 2016 7:47pm
Quoting E300
Now my issue is money management. My system will go in profit a lot BUT it can go down A LOT before its in profit. But 85%-97% of the time it will be in profit so I'm not too worried. The issue is I can't use Stop Loss. Also my system we do 1 signal at a time. So if we have a open buy the EA will close on opposite signal. Also I'm guessing Trailing might be our best option. My Issues - I have no idea what these trailing versions are. I only know "Trail Stop" Not these. I have no idea how to cut losses on the trade. My...
So your results look like this.

***Not my TE.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Scalp Results.png Size: 45 KB
  • #3
  • Sep 21, 2016 9:44pm Sep 21, 2016 9:44pm
Quoting srt
{quote} So your results look like this. ***Not my TE. {image}
Give me a timeframe and how many months and I will show you! But yes it looks very similar to that.
do you have a way to cover this?
  • #4
  • Sep 21, 2016 9:45pm Sep 21, 2016 9:45pm
Quoting VEEFX
Do you trade all 20 pairs at the same time or just one pair at a time? You could do something similar to what I do. At signal reverse, I take the signal, and close out only the ones in loss to let the profits run. {image}
Yes I can trade all 20 pairs I might just need to upgrade My vpn! Can you explain to me more how you do this?

Thanks!
  • #5
  • Sep 21, 2016 9:53pm Sep 21, 2016 9:53pm
[quote=E300;9154152] I'm saying that 85%-97% of the signals (on the custom EA) Will always go in profit. So basically 1+ pip but normally depending on the time frame it will always be higher then 1 pip. Now my issue is money management. My system will go in profit a lot BUT it can go down A LOT before its in profit. But 85%-97% of the time it will be in profit so I'm not too worried. The issue is I can't use Stop Loss. "

short answer, you do not have a system. Your system is no better than random. You need to start again from the beginning.
  • #6
  • Sep 21, 2016 9:58pm Sep 21, 2016 9:58pm
[quote=eozdural;9154431]
Quoting E300
I'm saying that 85%-97% of the signals (on the custom EA) Will always go in profit. So basically 1+ pip but normally depending on the time frame it will always be higher then 1 pip. Now my issue is money management. My system will go in profit a lot BUT it can go down A LOT before its in profit. But 85%-97% of the time it will be in profit so I'm not too worried. The issue is I can't use Stop Loss. " short answer, you do not have a system. Your system is no better than random. You need to start again from the beginning.
Please explain.
  • #7
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:59am Sep 22, 2016 3:59am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Not sure how as I have no idea what your strategy is. Conventional wisdom tells us two types of exit strategies: 1. cut profits short and let losses run 2. cut losses short and let profits run Both are flawed imo as they are dependent on your forced interpretation of whether your strategy will work in the given market conditions. We expect something from the market and market does the opposite of what you want from it. My approach is Market independent/neutral entries with no regard to range/trend/SR/SD/News/bounce/breakout/pivot/fibo/blah...

Given that winners appear to bigger than losers based on your max run-up vs draw down, it seems to me you are looking for a trades which are directional - which normally means lower liquidity / higher volatility instruments.

If you have a market neutral strategy, an entry method which is agnostic for technical analysis etc, then how are you assessing the market you wish to trade. Is it mechanical assessing % change in price, ADX or some kind of variant? Or is it intuitive / fundamental, for example, oil is volatile directional market at the moment 'I'll trade that'.

Thanks
  • #8
  • Sep 22, 2016 6:40am Sep 22, 2016 6:40am
[quote=E300;9154434]
Quoting eozdural
{quote} Please explain.
Price action often moves in waves back and forth, so on any randomly opened position there is a very good chance that price action will eventually return you to a positive value. But there are some instances, not very often, but often enough when price action will take off against you and will go so far against you or will go against you for so long, or will do both, that you cannot survive. Two examples from my own trading history come to mind:

1. USD/JPY, I went short September 2014 and price just took off against me. I eventually closed for a loss, but I could have waited until I was margined out.
2. GBP/NZD, I went long early December 2015, it went positive a bit, but not enough for me and it took me to a margin close.

what it seems you are asking is if you can solve your problem of having open positions which most often go at least a little bit positive but that sometimes make big losses, using just money management. The answer is no. Money management by itself will solve nothing. You need to be right in your guesses when you open positions and you need to be right in your guesses when you close positions, and you also need money management. And for that you need experience, and a lot of losses and a lot of wins and a lot of screen time.
  • #9
  • Sep 25, 2016 6:35am Sep 25, 2016 6:35am
Taking many small wins and a few large losses will never work.
  • #10
  • Sep 25, 2016 9:07am Sep 25, 2016 9:07am
try to risk 10% in every trade and close with every 10% gain. That is much better than risking everything suddenly, Good luck.
But personally i suggest you to learn fundamental and trade the news. A sudden jump in volatility will be very dangerous for you.
  • #11
  • Sep 25, 2016 3:00pm Sep 25, 2016 3:00pm
Quoting sylvin
try to risk 10% in every trade and close with every 10% gain. That is much better than risking everything suddenly, Good luck. But personally i suggest you to learn fundamental and trade the news. A sudden jump in volatility will be very dangerous for you.
Risking 10% is just stupid...
  • #12
  • Sep 26, 2016 10:26am Sep 26, 2016 10:26am
Quoting Mingary
Taking many small wins and a few large losses will never work.
No, I can match it with big wins, I'd say 2-3 full trades can match 1 loss, possibly. I'm looking into it.
  • #13
  • Sep 26, 2016 10:27am Sep 26, 2016 10:27am
Quoting sylvin
try to risk 10% in every trade and close with every 10% gain. That is much better than risking everything suddenly, Good luck. But personally i suggest you to learn fundamental and trade the news. A sudden jump in volatility will be very dangerous for you.
I'm not looking for big risk big reward, I want to trade safe. With a big captial it can be a big gain as well. A lot of 1.00 and catching 50-100 pips from the EA is a perfect 1st goal for me.
  • #14
  • Sep 26, 2016 10:27am Sep 26, 2016 10:27am
Quoting AntiVi
{quote} Risking 10% is just stupid...
True that.
  • #15
  • Sep 27, 2016 3:36am Sep 27, 2016 3:36am
Quoting E300
{quote} I'm not looking for big risk big reward, I want to trade safe. With a big captial it can be a big gain as well. A lot of 1.00 and catching 50-100 pips from the EA is a perfect 1st goal for me.

I have the "same" strategy and in the end loses. Maybe you should start thinking to reverse your strategy and follow simple rules of the market like strength and correlation.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #16
  • Sep 29, 2016 4:51pm Sep 29, 2016 4:51pm
hey E300 can you share some result
WaBaS Where are Buyers and Sellers
  • #17
  • Oct 8, 2016 8:06am Oct 8, 2016 8:06am
You can use martingale, double your lot on each win, exit after 10 win, get your money out, and do it again.

Can you give some clue on the strategy ?

if you send me the strategy by PM , I will give more information.
.
  • #18
  • Oct 8, 2016 11:09am Oct 8, 2016 11:09am
Maybe this can help:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post9113190
  • #19
  • Oct 9, 2016 3:59am Oct 9, 2016 3:59am
I think you should show us your strategy before you ask for advice, because no one can help you and totally understand you until you give us a graph to explain your system and we understand it. Don't you think so?
  • #20
  • Oct 9, 2016 9:05am Oct 9, 2016 9:05am
If u have acc big enough, u can have 100% winning rate, keep losers for decades. Go for that.
Please add more indicators, I still see the real price! Thanks!
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