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Consistent Income from trading is a myth

  • #81
  • Sep 19, 2016 5:23am Sep 19, 2016 5:23am
Quoting RobTaylor
{quote} Nice to see someone on FF that knows what they are talking about. If this guy is a professional trader, he would know that the markets are not random. He thinks they are because his indicators work some of the time, and some of the time they don't work. When his indicators are not working hes sees this as random market behavior. The market is very structured, and if you know what you are looking for you can see its structure and profit from it. Anyone that says the markets are random does not know how they work.

The markets work because they are random.
  • #82
  • Sep 19, 2016 9:16pm Sep 19, 2016 9:16pm
Steves account update :

Yep sure looks like we don't know what we are talking about, you guys are right and we are wrong. George Soros could post how he made billions of dollars in here and I'm sure some of you would argue with him as well. Unbelievable to me how losing traders hold on to their foolish beliefs.
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  • #83
  • Edited 12:46am Sep 20, 2016 12:22am | Edited 12:46am
Quoting Gobigfx
Steves account update : Yep sure looks like we don't know what we are talking about, you guys are right and we are wrong. George Soros could post how he made billions of dollars in here and I'm sure some of you would argue with him as well. Unbelievable to me how losing traders hold on to their foolish beliefs. {image}
Simple logic (law of averages / gaussian distribution) will show that someone will sometime show a profit for some time.
It does not mean than anyone can do it.
If enough lottery tickets are sold, someone will win; but it's impossible to say who will win.
You will always have winners and you will always have losers;but they are not always the same winners and the same losers.
In the end no one profits long term. All trading accounts are slowly (sometime very quickly ...) transformed into broker revenue via transaction cost.

To illustrate, here is my 750 trade run so far ... Given the very nature of the playing field, how can anyone believe it's not an aberration that the market will rectify sooner or later ?

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  • #84
  • Sep 20, 2016 7:41am Sep 20, 2016 7:41am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Simple logic (law of averages / gaussian distribution) will show that someone will sometime show a profit for some time. It does not mean than anyone can do it. If enough lottery tickets are sold, someone will win; but it's impossible to say who will win. You will always have winners and you will always have losers;but they are not always the same winners and the same losers. In the end no one profits long term. All trading accounts are slowly (sometime very quickly ...) transformed into broker revenue via transaction cost. To illustrate,...
Is a 33 year career a large enough sample size ?

How about the fact that Institutional Trained traders have been making money using the same models for over 150 years ?

I do agree sample size is important but 90% of the volume in the business does the same process which makes the market move. The issue is not IF the market will move its WHEN and HOW and WHY and that is a function of Volatility. We are all slaves to it.
  • #85
  • Sep 20, 2016 7:45am Sep 20, 2016 7:45am
Quoting Gobigfx
Steves account update : Yep sure looks like we don't know what we are talking about, you guys are right and we are wrong. George Soros could post how he made billions of dollars in here and I'm sure some of you would argue with him as well. Unbelievable to me how losing traders hold on to their foolish beliefs. {image}
George Soros made most of his money away from forex. Forex isn't even close to being Soros main market, equities are.
  • #86
  • Sep 22, 2016 7:17am Sep 22, 2016 7:17am
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} Is a 33 year career a large enough sample size ? How about the fact that Institutional Trained traders have been making money using the same models for over 150 years ? I do agree sample size is important but 90% of the volume in the business does the same process which makes the market move. The issue is not IF the market will move its WHEN and HOW and WHY and that is a function of Volatility. We are all slaves to it.
"Is a 33 year career a large enough sample size ?"
==> Then you should know that the financial markets are designed to help the true positive contributors to society, entrepeneurs and producers. A speculator provides a service to society only when he loses.

"How about the fact that Institutional Trained traders have been making money using the same models for over 150 years ?"
==> Not true, the only difference between retail and "institutional" is that institutional traders lose a lot more money than retail traders.

"I do agree sample size is important but 90% of the volume in the business does the same process which makes the market move. The issue is not IF the market will move its WHEN and HOW and WHY and that is a function of Volatility. We are all slaves to it."
==> And it's still a gamble! no matter what tools or methodology is used, the risk cannot be removed. in the long run, more money is lost by traders than it is gained. in the forex the total amount contained in all customer funds slowly disappears via transaction cost ... transferred in the broker's bank accounts.
  • #87
  • Last Post: Oct 7, 2016 8:22am Oct 7, 2016 8:22am
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More evidence trading is not a consistent form of income.
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