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AceTraderFx Sept 9: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major USD/JPY
Update Time: 09 Sep 2016 09:19 GMT

USD/JPY - 102.18
Despite the greenback's rally to as high as 104.32 on Friday on dollar's broad-based strength, subsequent selloff yesterday on poor U.S. economic data suggests the erratic upmove from August's 7-week trough at 99.54 has made a minor top there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 101.17, then 100.80/90.
However, near term loss of momentum would prevent steep fall beyond there and reckon price would hold well above 101.62 and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 104.00 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for a re-test of said resistance, break, 104.70/80 later this week.

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AceTraderFx Sept 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Sep 2016 03:09GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr pares initial decline in Australia on Monday following a brief rise to session high of 103.06 as hawkish comments by Fed's Rosengren just ahead of NY open led to broad-based usd buying, however, mildly dovish comments in an interview with CNBC by Fed's Tarullo triggered long liquidation in the greenback, dlr retreated to 102.54 before trading sideways.

The intra-day decline to 102.31 in Australia caused by broad-based yen buying on risk aversion was attributed to expected broad-based weakness in Asian stocks after Friday's 2% plus decline in the Dow and S&P 500, Asian equities are in the red (N225 down 1.5%, Shanghai Comp. down 1.6% n HSI down 2.5%). Although dlr has rebounded in Asia, range trading below said Fri's 103.06 top is expected to continue.

Offers are tipped at 102.70/80 and more above with stops above 103.10.
Some bids are noted at 102.40-30 with stops below 102.20.

Although no U.S. data are due out today, pay attention to speeches by Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (non-voting member) at 12:05GMT, then Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (alternate voting member) n last by not least, a final-minute scheduled speech by Fed Lael Brainard (actually all eyes n ears are on her) at 17:00GMT in Chicago.
Brainard is perceived as the most dovish member of the FOMC and market reckons her speech may be intended to send final signal to the market of the Fed's thinking of rate hike as after today, no Fed officials are allowed to make any public comments 1 week ahead of the 20-21 Sep FOMC meeting.

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AceTraderFx Sept 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Sep 2016 08:02GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Although cable has pared Friday's intra-day selloff to 1.3239 in New York morning session and edged higher in Asia and early European trading on Monday due to rebound in the euro, anticipated cross- selling in sterling vs eur and yen should prevent strong recovery and consolidation with downside bias is envisaged.

London traders did not react to early downgrade of UK GDP forecast by the influential BCC (see 00:19GMT update).
For now, offers are tipped at 1.3285/95 and more above with some stops above 1.3300, however, more stops are reported above 1.3340.
Some buying interest is noted at 1.3260-50 with stops touted below 1.3230.

In the absence of U.S. eco. data today, market is awaiting speeches by 3 Fed officials later in the day and cross trading in sterling may also influence intra-day price swings of cable too.

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AceTraderFx Sept 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Sep 2016 01:16GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1233.. The single currency went through a real 'roller-coaster' session in hectic Monday trading. Despite staging a short-covering rise to 1.1264 in European morning, price erased intra-day gain and fell to 1.1211 on broad-based selling in eur vs yen, gbp and the chf before stabilsing ahead of New York open.
Price moved narrowly in New York morning as traders awaited the final speech ahead of next week's key FOMC meeting by Fed's Brainard, the euro briefly jumped to session high of 1.1268 when Brainard maintained her usual dovish stance, however, USD rebounded broadly as market participants reckoned 1 dovish vote out the 10 voting members at next Wednesday's decision making meeting does mean there will be no rate hike by the Fed.

Euro's intra-day softness in Asia suggests said yesterday's 1.1268 high would hold from here and if price can not move above this res level by New York morning, market participants may well test euro's downside to look for the path of 'least resistance'.

Offers are tipped at 1.1255/65 and more above with stops reported at 1.1290, initial bids are noted at 1.1220/10 with fairly large stops below 1.1190, suggesting selling euro on recovery is still favoured.

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AceTraderFx Sept 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Sep 2016 02:35GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr rallied in New York afternoon session on media report the BoJ is ready to step up its monetary easing measure at next week's BoJ meeting, price jumped above New York morning high of 102.43 to 102.75.

Despite initial retreat to 102.43 on profit taking just ahead of Tokyo open, renewed broad-based selling in yen sent dlr higher to 103.20 after tripping stops above 102.80 and last week's top of 103.06.

Having said that, dlr's intra-day retreat suggests consolidation is in store as price has overshot to the upside even after Reuters confirmed Nikkei business daily reported that the BOJ plans to make its controversial negative interest rate policy the centre piece of future monetary easing, promising to weigh further cuts as expansions to asset buying near their limits.

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AceTraderFx Sept 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Sep 2016 01:39GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Cable jumped in o.n New York session on short covering ahead of MPC rate decision today. Reuters reported earlier the Bank of England is expected to say on Thursday that it will still probably cut interest rates to a fraction above zero later this year, despite signs it overestimated the initial shock to Britain's economy from June's Brexit vote.
The BoE's nine rate-setters probably voted unanimously at their September meeting to keep Bank Rate at 0.25 percent, the lowest level in the BoE's 322-year history, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

The Bank will probably also signal that a further cut is likely the next time it meets, in November, as it to tries to help the economy cope with the referendum decision in June to leave the European Union.
When the BoE stepped in with a stimulus push on Aug. 4, it had little concrete data on the impact of the Brexit vote. But since then signs have grown that the economy, while still heading for a sharp slowdown, weathered the initial shock.

Governor Mark Carney, who has been accused by Brexit supporters of being alarmist with his warnings about the consequences of a "Leave" vote, said earlier this month that growth might slow to around 0.3 percent in the third quarter.
That would be slightly less severe than the 0.1 percent crawl that the BoE had expected but half the pace of growth in the April-June period.

The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to stick with the other emergency measures it announced last month although some of its members might again voice their objections.
The MPC is likely to reiterate that the Brexit uncertainty will drag on the economy as Britain and the EU thrash out a new relationship over the next couple of years, probably resulting in less access for British exporters to the EU's single market.

Another likely drag will come from a rise in inflation triggered by the slump in the value of the pound after the referendum. Although that could help exporters, it is likely to push up inflation, hurting the spending power of consumers.

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AceTraderFx Sept 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Sep 2016 04:07GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Apart from the yen, sterling was the star performer vs usd and eur in yesterday's New York trading. Despite falling briefly to a near 2-week low of 1.3139 in New York morning, active short covering in sterling lifted cable to session highs of 1.3240 in New York afternoon and buying continued in thin Aust. morning today, pushing price to 1.3279 after tripping stops above said New York high.

The fact that cable is trading with a steady to firm undertone in Asia ahead of release of key UK retail sales data at 08:30GMT n more importantly, MPC monetary policy announcement at 11:00GMT, suggesting market is still a tad short, so buying cable on dips ahead of MPC statement is still cautiously favoured.

Some offers are noted at 1.3270/80 with stops above 1.3300, minor bias are noted at 1.3240/30 with stops below 1.3200.

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AceTraderFx Sept 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Sep 2016 04:18GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Despite closing a the day's low on Friday due to usd's broad-based rally which started in NY morning following release of mildly upbeat U.S. CPI data, intra-day broad-based weakness in the usd (possibly in delayed reaction to New York bombing on Sun - see 00:06GMT update) suggests euro would gain temp. respite until European open before recent decline resumes.

Order book is fairly thin with some offers at 1.1175/80 and more above with stops reported above 1.1200. Initial bids are noted at 1.1150-40 with stops below there, more stops are touted below daily sup at 1.1123.

EZ economic calendar is very thin with EU current account being the only data due out at 08:00GMT which is not expected to have any impact on the euro.

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AceTraderFx Sept 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Sep 2016 02:14GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr edges higher in subdued Asian morning. Some bargain buying is spotted by Japanese importers as Japanese financial markets reopen after yesterday's holiday, however, this week is an abbreviated week for Japanese traders as coming Thursday is another national day in Japan.

Despite yesterday's weakness to 101.58 in New York morning, usd's broad-based rebound in New York afternoon suggests consolidation with upside bias is in store and one can expect a bit of dlr short-covering to take place after decline from last week's high of 103.36 (Wednesday) to said Monday's low ahead of the 2-day Fed as well as BoJ monetary policy meeting.

Bids have been raised to 101.80-75 and more below with stops below 101.40, however, more stops are touted below September's bottom at 101.21.
Offers are tipped at 102.10/15 and more above with stops reported above 102.50, suggesting buying dlr on dips is the way to go.

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AceTraderFx Sept 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Sep 2016 02:46GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr remains under pressure on broad-based yen buying in nervous Tokyo trading as market awaits impending monetary policy decision from BoJ.

Many call today 'Super Wednesday' as 2 majors central banks (BoJ and then the Fed) will announce their rates decision at the end of a 2-day meeting.
Although many believe the BoJ would stand pat on its rates and may add further stimulus measures ahead of FOMC decision, if this is the outcome, then traders are expected to buy the yen pretty aggressively n only 'bold' action by BoJ Governor would spark off yen selling as market is short usd/long yen ahead of the BoJ's announcement which is expected to be made between now and Tokyo midday.

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AceTraderFx Sept 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Sep 2016 07:10GMT

USD/JPY - .... The greenback staged a spectacular rally after initial brief but sharp spike to a 3-week low of 101.02 after BoJ kepts its rates unchanged but when more details were released and the central bank has abandoned its base monetary target and set a 'yield curve' control, traders cut their previously-held short dlr positions n this action sent dlr sharply higher to 102.64.

Reuters reported the Bank of Japan has decided to adopt a target for long-term interest rates in an overhaul of its massive stimulus programme.
The BOJ maintained the 0.1 percent negative interest rate it applies to some of the excess reserves that financial institutions park with the central bank.

But it abandoned its base money target and instead set a "yield curve control" under which it will buy long-term government bonds to keep 10-year bond yields around current levels of zero percent.
The BOJ said it would continue to buy long-term government bonds at a pace so that the balance of its holdings increases by 80 trillion yen ($781 billion) per year.
Japan's Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara said that he welcomed the Bank of Japan's commitment to achieving its 2 percent inflation target.

Ishihara, speaking to reporters after the central bank overhauled its stimulus programme by adopting a target for long-term interest rates, said the government would continue to coordinate with the BOJ to accelerate Abenomics.

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AceTraderFx Sept 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Sep 2016 02:27GMT

USD/JPY - 103.37.. Although dlr came under renewed selling pressure ahead of Asian open after extending yesterday's post-BoJ selloff from 102.78 to 100.30 in New York afternoon following Fed's unchanged rate decision, price weakened to intra-day low of 100.10 on stop-selling but lack of follow-though soon lifted the pair to 100.48, suggesting a temp. bottom is in place n range trading is in store until European open.

Offers are tipped at 100.50/60 with some stops above there, however, more selling interest is reported at 100.90/00. Initial bids are noted at 100.10-100.00 with some stops below there, more buying interest (from Japanese importers) is touted above 99.50.

After 'Super' Wed, U.S. will release of a slew of economic data starting with the usual weekly jobless claims, national activity index, monthly home price, existing home sales and Kansas City Fed mfg index.

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AceTraderFx Sept 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Sep 2016 02:05GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Although the single staged an impressive rally in European session yesterday n later hit at high of 1.1257 in New York morning on active short-covering in the euro following usd's broad-based weakness in post-FOMC session on Wed, selling interest emerged n price later retreated to 1.1200 ahead of New York close, suggesting the 1st leg of correction from Wed's 5-week bottom at 1.1121 has ended there and consolidation is expected to continue in Asia and European morning.

Offers are tipped at 1.1230/40 and more at 1.1255/60 with stops reported above previous res at 1.1284/85.
Initial bids are noted at 1.1200 with stops below 1.1180, however, expect buying interest to emerge near 1.1160/65.

Pay attention to a slew of euro zone data in European morning.
Today is PMI day with France kicking off with France with GDP and Markit Mfg and Services PMIs, then the sames PMIs from Germany followed by the release of same PMIs from the EU.

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AceTraderFx Sept 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Sep 2016 02:18GMT

USD/JPY - 100.85.. Despite Friday's rebound from 100.68 (Europe) to 101.17 in New York afternoon following hawkish comments by Fed's Rosengren, dlr came under selling pressure ahead of Tokyo open on renewed cross-buyng in yen and retreated to 100.71, suggesting near term sideways trading below 101.24 (Friday's Asian high) would continue with downside bias.

Offers are tipped at 101.00/10 and more above with stops reported above 101.30.
A mixture of bids and stops is noted at 100.70-65, however, more buying interest is touted above last week's 100.10 low with stops reported below 100.00.

Pay attention to release of U.S. eco. data starting with new home sales at 14:00GMT n then Dallas Fed mfg business index at 14:30GMT.
Last but now least, several FOMC members are scheduled to speak later today with Fed's Kashkari at 13:00GMT, Fed's Tarullo at 15:45GMT and then Fed's Kaplan at 17:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx Sept 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Sep 2016 08:00GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Cable fell from Asian intra-day high of 1.2987 to 1.2936 at European open European traders gave sterling broad-based bashing following weekend's news on Brexit (see earlier updates at 00:53GMT, 00:57GMT, 01:00GMT and 01:01GMT for details).

Traders reported initial gain as short covering in relatively thin Asian session and current weakness suggests re-test of Friday's 5-week trough at 1.2915 is on the cards.
However, do not get overly bearish on the pound as market has started the day with more short positions than longs, so expect profit taking on dips to cushion intra-day fall.
Offers are tipped at 1.2955/65 and more at 1.2980/90 with stops above 1.3000.
Some stops are touted below 1.2900 with more touted below 1.2865 (August low), suggesting near term bias remains 'down'.

The only data due out from the U.K. is August BBA mortgage approvals which is unlikely to have a strong influence on cable's direction unless the number is sharply higher than previous reading of 37.662K.

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AceTraderFx Sept 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Sep 2016 04:05GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Although euro continued its recent winning streak on Mon n climbed above last week's 1.1257 (Thurday) high to 1.1270 in European morning, helped by release of surprisingly upbeat Ifo business climate index, price climbed to session highs of 1.1279 in New York before paring intra-day gain on broad-based euro longs esp vs usd, yen and gbp.

Euro inched lower to 1.1239 at Asian open as market pared more long euro positions ahead of the televised U.S. presidential debate n traded narrowly, suggesting range trading below Mon's 1-week high would continue.
Offers are tipped at 1.1270/80 with stops above 1.1300, initial bids are noted at 1.1240-30 and more below with stops below 1.1220.
However, more buying interest is touted at 1.1200-1.1190 with stops reported below there.

On the economic data front, Germany will release import price, then Italy's industrial orders, industrial sales. Later today, Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret will make a speech at a financial forum in Vienna at 15:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Sept 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Sep 2016 03:30GMT

USD/JPY - .... Dlr rebounded ahead of Tokyo open due to initial broad-based yen selling after Tuesday's 'roller-coaster' session. Price climbed to intra-day high of 100.66 following hawkish comments by San Francisco Fed President John Williams (see 01:00GMT update).

Yesterday's rally from Asian 1-month low of 100.09 to 100.99 at European open and then subsequent cross-inspired selloff to 100.20 in New York morning suggests correction is over, however, intra-day rebound should bring further choppy sideways swings before prospect of another fall later today.
Offers are tipped at 100.70/80 and more above with stops reported above 101.00. Initial bids are noted at 100.30-20 and more below with stops building below 100.00.

Pay attention to release of U.S. Aug durable goods data due out at 12:30GMT.

Today is called 'Fed talk', pay extra attention to speeches by many Fed officials starting with Fed Kashkari at 12:45GMT, testimony by Fed Chair Yellen before the Committee on Financial Services at 14:00GMT, Fed's Bullard at 14:15GMT, Fed's Evans at 17:30GMT and Fed's Mester at 20:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx Sept 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Sep 2016 02:11GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The pair took centre stage in Asia on Thursday. Although price traded narrowly in thin Australian morning after a rebound from New York low of 100.45, dlr jumped ahead of Tokyo morning on broad-based yen-selling as o/n sharp rse of nearly 6% in oil price following a surprise OPEC agreement to cut production boosted risk appetite.
Dlr easily penetrated 100.99 res and rallied to as high as 101.41 in Asia after tripping a series of stops above 101.00 and then 101.30.

Expect price to maintain a firm undertone after intra-day break of 100.99 res (now sup) and bids have been raised to 101.25 and more below with some stops touted below 101.00.
Some offers are tipped at 101.40/50 and more at 101.75/80 with more stops reported above 102.00.

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AceTraderFx Sept 30: Dlr trades narrowly in subdued Asian morning after yesterday's bloodbath !

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Sep 2016 02:18GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr trades narrowly in subdued Asian morning after yesterday's bloodbath !
Just when one thought (ourselves included) to be on 'risk on' mode following dlr's impressive intra-day rally in Asia, Europe and then subsequent gain to session high of 101.84 in New York morning following mildly upbeat U.S. data, the pair tumbled due to broad-based yen-buying on risk aversion following market news some clients (funds) of the embattling Deutsche Bank have pulled extra cash out.
Dlr fell to as low as 100.84 b4 staging a minor recovery to 101.25 in Asia.

Looks like it is risk-off day today as the antipodean currencies fell briefly below o/n New York lows, suggesting dlr/yen would be sold on recovery as yesterday' sharp fall from 101.84 signals at least the 1st leg of correction from Tuesday's 1-month trough at 100.09 has ended.
Offers are tipped at 100.25/35 and more above, some bids are noted at 100.95-85 with some stops below there.
However, more buying interest is reported at 100.50-40 n more below with fairly large stops building below the 100.00 mark.

There is still a slew of U.S. data due out later on this final day of the week as well as month as well as Q3 of 2016, starting with personal consumption expenditure, personal spending, personal income, then Chicago PMI and last but not least, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

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AceTraderFx Oct 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Oct 2016 02:45GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr repeated Friday's 'jumpy' behaviour in Asian trading on Monday. Despite initial cross-inspired gain to 101.60/61 at Tokyo open due to gain in the Nikkie , profit taking knocked price to 101.21 and all of a sudden, price spiked up to intra-day high of 101.65 before coming off straight away, suggesting this move was possibly linked to a bid order execution.

Despite Friday's fall from 101.79 (Asia) to 100.75 in Europe, subsequent rebound in New York to 101.44 near Friday's close n intra-day gain to 101.65 suggests pullback from last week's 101.84 (Thursday) has ended, so buying dlr on dips is favoured.

Offers are tipped at 101.60/70 and ore above with stops reported at 101.90/00.
Initial bids are noted at 101.10-00 and more below with stops below 100.70.

As dlr did not show much reaction (as usual) to Japan's tankan report, pay attention to U.S. economic data later today starting with Markit mfg PMI n then construction spending data.

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