Daily Technical Analysis by Capital Street FX

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Daily Report on September 13, 2016

Asian shares edged up on Tuesday, taking their cue from European and U.S equities last night which shot up on the dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard. In a speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Brainard – one of six permanent voters on the Fed committee – stated that a labor market which is not-yet-at-full-employment and economic weakness abroad may demand more prudence in the move toward tighter Fed policy.

Brainard’s comments weakened the case for a September rate hike, triggering the recovery in stocks and weakening the U.S dollar.

Large Japanese manufacturers turned optimistic over the country’s business conditions in the third quarter, the joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute showed on Tuesday. The business survey index (BSI) which measures business sentiment among big manufacturers’ during the July-September period, came out at 2.9, beating expectations for a reading of -6.5.

The Australian dollar dipped slightly in early trade following comments from Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Christopher Kent on the need for a weaker currency. The central bank official said that the Aussie had not depreciated as much as expected in response to weaker commodity prices and cuts in interest rates that have brought the cash rate to a record low of 1.5%.

Australia’s biggest trading partner, China, is reporting some signs of recovery after some disappointments in July. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that factory output, investment and retail sales all exceeded forecasts. Industrial production rose by 6.3 percent from a year earlier in August, retail sales climbed 10.6 percent last month, compared to the same period last year while fixed-asset investment increased 8.1 percent year to date.

Technicals
EURJPY

Fig: EURJPY H4 Technical Chart
EURJPY generally has been on a decline from as high as 115.938. The short-term MA has just crossed over the long-term MA from above, consolidating the downtrend. Sellers are still overwhelming the market, suggesting more down moves which may push the pair to as low as 113.930.

Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 114.400, Take profit at 113.930, Stop loss at 114.430

NZDUSD

Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart
After failed attempts to break above the 50% retracement at 0.74715, NZDUSD not only fell back into the ascending trading channel but also hit a more-than-one-week low at around 0.72898. The pair pulled back from the lower boundary of the channel and is currently facing firm resistance at 0.73420. Weakening bulls have failed to push the price past the MA20. The market remains in bearish territory. With the RSI pointing towards the oversold zone, further declines are expected.

Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 0.73370, Take profit at 0.73110, Stop loss at 0.73650

GBPCAD

Fig: GBPCAD H4 Technical Chart
GBPCAD has built upon the bullish formation, after some corrective moves. Buyers have reigned in the market since mid-August and taken the pair considerably higher. The two MAs placed below the price action are fueling the bullish momentum but the resistance at 1.74500 should be watched closely, as the market has reversed from this
zone on multiple occasions previously

Trade suggestion
Buy Stop 1.74100, Take profit at 1.74500, Stop loss at 1.73660

SILVER

Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart
Silver is struggling around the major resistance level at 19.2000, and the upside currently seems limited as the two MAs placed above the price action, and are casting downward pressure on prices. The last three candles with long upper shadows and almost no lower shadows show strong but careful bulls moving cautiously when the price nears the key resistance level. The %K line has entered the overbought zone, and may cross through the %D line from above, signaling a possible pullback.

Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 19.100, Take profit at 18.850, Stop loss at 19.400

WTI

Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart
U.S crude prices continued to trade within the triangle formation, and have just pulled back from the upper boundary connecting lower lows since August 19. The 23.6% retracement level is within sight of the oil price. However, recently this level has been broken through quite easily. Therefore, if the bear can sustain its momentum, WTI may trader lower towards the lower boundary of the trading range.

Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 45.80, Take profit at 45.00, Stop loss at 46.40

EURO50

Fig: EuroStoxx50 H4 Technical Chart
Euro Stoxx 50 index rebounded from below the 38.2% level and broke back into the ascending trading range that has enveloped the recent price action. RSI has rallied from the oversold territory to near the 50 line. The resistance at 3050.00 is currently within sight of the price action. We should wait for the index to surpass this level before an uptrend can be confidently confirmed.

Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 3050.00, Take profit at 3074.30, Stop loss at 3040.00
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GBP/USD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 12:35 13/09/2016
Till GMT 21:00 13/09/2016

Buy at1.32000
Take profit at1.32500
Stop loss at1.31000

Japanese Data Surprises Markets – Traders Undecided Ahead Of BOJ/FED

The Japanese Yen was almost unchanged against the U.S dollar in the early European session on Tuesday after having risen to the highest since last Thursday at 101.409. The Yen was powered by upbeat data released earlier today. Meanwhile the greenback nursed losses following the decline on Monday as the case for a September rate increase became “less compelling”.

Adding to Monday’s core machinery orders data that unexpectedly rose by 4.9%, (contrasting considerably with estimates calling for a decline of 2.8%), Japan’s economic data extended the upbeat sentiment today, offering some encouragement to policymakers working towards re-energizing business investment, domestic demand and price growth.

According to a joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute, large Japanese manufacturers turned optimistic over the country’s business conditions in the third quarter. The business survey index (BSI) which measures business sentiment among big manufacturers’ for the July-September period, came out at 2.9, beating expectations for a reading of -6.5.

In other notable data readings, the Japanese economy grew at a pace greater than initially reported. Data released on Thursday indicated that the reading for the annualized growth rate was revised upwards to 0.7% in the second quarter (on a year on year basis). The preliminary reading had reported a 0.2% rate of expansion. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the world’s third biggest economy expanded by 0.2%, largely due to upbeat capital expenditure and inventories, which outpaced the decline in domestic and overseas demand caused by a strong yen.

The Bank of Japan is scheduled to hold its policy meeting on September 20-21, where it will assess the effectiveness of stimulus measures deployed recently within the economy. On the same day that BoJ policymakers announce the results of their comprehensive assessment, the Federal Open Market Committee will gather in Washington to discuss the next steps within their monetary policy, and any possibility of a rate hike at the meeting.

Fed officials are expected to go into the meeting divided. Besides some governors claiming that the U.S labor market has come close to full employment and urging a rate hike sooner, rather than later, Fed voter Lael Brainard has opined that the Fed should be patient and wait for more evidence of stronger consumer spending and rising inflation. In a speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Brainard maintained her dovish stance on rate policy, and referring to potential weakness at home and risks of an economic downturn abroad, as potential risk factors.
The Japanese Yen has generally been on a rise against the USD, but is trading sideways around the key level at 102.000. While the RSI is swinging back and forth around the dividing line between bullish and bearish territory, the ADX index has turned lower to 24.95 from the high at 42.57, suggesting no clear opinion being formed in the market. With no data releases scheduled till the end of the day, neutral sentiment is expected to reign in the pair.


Trade suggestion
Sell Limit at 102.500, Take profit at 102.000, Stop loss at 103.050

Note 7’s Troubles Spell Boom For Iphone7 – Apple Defying Global Stock Sell Off

Against the backdrop of the global selloff in stocks, Apple was the only component of the Dow Jones gaining ground on Tuesday, and it was just one among the very few constituents of the technology-heavy Nasdaq-100 Index, that were trading in the green.
Apple shares surged nearly 3% after T-Mobile US. Inc. reported that advance orders for the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus during the Friday-Monday period last week were nearly four times that of the previous record over similar time frames.

Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 108.20, take profit at 108.80, Stop loss at 107.50

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Daily Report on September 14, 2016

Asian shares dropped on Wednesday as investors were questioning whether the stimulus programs being run by major central banks’ have reached their limits. Meanwhile, the U.S dollar retreated against most of its peers after jumping 0.6% on Tuesday amid rising Treasury yields and a selloff in stock markets worldwide.
Wall Street fell to its lowest since early July, led by losses in the energy sector as oil prices tumbled following reports that the global supply glut will extend into next year. The IEA sparked an oil rout by cutting oil demand forecasts by 100,000 barrels a day for this year and 200,000 barrels in 2017, given the economic fatigue in China, India, Europe and the U.S.
Having plunged as much as 3% in the previous session, crude prices re-gained lost ground in the Asian trading session today, as data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a buildup of 1.4 million barrels in crude oil stocks last week, lower than a 3.8 million-barrel increase expected by economists. Official oil inventory data will be issued by the U.S. government later today.
In a video message aired at a seminar in Tokyo organized by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated that downside risks to the global economic outlook are rising, but expressed optimism that recent monetary policy changes by the Bank of Japan are gradually feeding through to the real economy.
According to the Nikkei newspaper, the BOJ is considering further cuts to its interest rates, and is likely to make its negative rate policy the centerpiece of future monetary easing in order to reach the 2% inflation target, as the asset buying programs have neared their limits.

Technicals
AUDUSD

Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart
The Aussie has witnessed its steepest downfall since June 24 which helped the pair AUDUSD to break through two important supports at the 23.6% and 38.2% levels easily. The price attempted to breach the 50.0% retracement as well but unfortunately, profit taking caused the pair to pull back. Suppressed by the two MAs placed above the price action, the current up moves are expected to lose their strength once the price hits the resistance at 0.74900.
Trade suggestion
Sell Limit at 0.74900, Take profit at 0.74530, Stop loss at0.75255

USDCAD

Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart
USDCAD has been experiencing some corrective moves after soaring strongly to the solid resistance at 1.31900. The pair even surpassed the high at 1.31470 reached on September 01. As can be seen from the RSI chart, the market has cooled down after a sharp rally that pushed the price into the overbought zone. Still, ADX is pointing upwards, suggesting underlying bullish momentum.
Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 1.31470, Take profit at 1.31470, Stop loss at 1.31130

EURGBP

Fig: EURGBP H4 Technical Chart
EURGBP is moving sideways above the support level at 0.84950 after the pair successfully broke above this level yesterday. This consolidation period is the result of a market that has entered the overbought state. Further advances are anticipated as the MA20 has already penetrated the MA50 from below. Both MA's are placed below the price action.
Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 0.84950, Take profit at 0.95620, Stop loss at 0.84440

GOLD

Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart
Gold is off a one and a half week low at 1313.45 as bulls stepped in and supported the a bounce-back from the support at 1315.00. The short-term MA has penetrated the long-term MA from above, and both MA's are currently placed above the price action, casting downward pressure on gold prices. Looking back at previous consolidations, the resistance at 1325.00 may be a point from which the precious metal may again reverse lower.
Trade suggestion
Sell Limit at 1325.00, Take profit at 1315.00, Stop loss at 1330.00

Natural Gas

Fig: Natural gas H4 Technical Chart
Natural gas continued to extend the bullish momentum, extending the up-move from the low at the 23.6% retracement (at 2.668) recorded on September 07. The price has broken above the ascending trendline connecting higher lows but the solid resistance at 2.940 is within sight and a pullback at this level may be expected as market has been overextended for a while.
Trade suggestion
Sell Limit at 2.940, Take profit at 2.900, Stop loss at 2.965.

DAX30

Fig: DAX 30 H4 Technical Chart
The DAX 30 index opened the European session with a gap up today. Even though the index is under the spell of the two moving averages placed above the price action, the %K line has pulled back and is likely to cross over the %D line, suggesting a reversal in market direction. Traders may need to wait for a clear confirmation of an uptrend before placing a trade.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 10400.00, Take profit at 10350.00, Stop loss at 10472.50
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Copper Rallies on More Signs of Rising Demand And Falling Supply

Copper rose considerably on Wednesday, surging to over three-week highs at $2.1278/lb. The rally was driven by positive economic data in the United States and China recently, and the covering of short positions in China ahead of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival in China.

Data from the Census Bureau on Tuesday indicated that U.S household income registered a record growth rate in 2015 after years of stagnation. The median household income adjusted for inflation increased by 5.2%, or $2,798, to $56,516, from a year earlier, indicating the effects of sustained job growth in lifting the living standards of ordinary citizens who had been largely left behind by the recovery in the economy.

According to the report, the unemployment rate has declined from a peak of 10 percent in October 2009 to 4.9 percent last month, while income advanced by 4.4% to $57,200 in native-born households. The number of people living in poverty fell by 3.5 million to 43.1 million last year, pushing the poverty rate down to 13.5% in 2015 from 14.8% in 2014.

In China, a raft of economic data published this week contributed to signs of improvement in the world’s top copper importing country. Factory output, investment and retail sales all grew faster than expected in August, bolstering speculation of strengthening demand for the red metal.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, total positions in all copper contracts fell by 19,324 to 470,000 with trading volumes at 300,000 lots. Positions were closed by shorts while longs took no action due to the upcoming holiday between September 15-17. The Chinese market will be closed tomorrow and Friday for the mid-autumn festival.

Copper demand at the Multi Commodity Exchange (India) advanced by 0.19% for delivery in November and by 0.23% for delivery in February 2017 contracts. India ranks number 9 in the list of top 10 copper importers in 2015. The country signed an agreement with Chile last week to expand the India- Chile Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA), in which India has offered a concession to copper imported from Chile with a margin of preference of 50%. As copper is an important input for many sectors of India’s economy, the country expected the demand for this metal will soon grow beyond current domestic capabilities.

On the supply side, more mining firms in the Phillipine face potential mine suspensions under an environmental standard audit backed by President Rodrigo Duterte. The audit’s outcome will be issued on Thursday.
Copper bounced off the support at 2.09000 after more than 2 weeks of trading around this level. The metal has broken out of the descending trading channel and also moved past the MA20 at 2.1005, having broken through it from below. The RSI index finally surpassed the 50-line after spending a long period of time under this threshold, confirming the current uptrend.


Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 2.1280, Take profit at 2.1400, Stop loss at 2.1100

Unexpected Buildup in U.S Distillate Inventories Offsets Crude Draw Down

U.S crude prices failed to register a rebound from one-week lows at below $45 per barrel even after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that domestic crude oil supplies fell by 600,000 barrels last week. The number came in well below expectations of a 4 million-barrel increase in the week through September 9, 2016.

The surprise drawdown in U.S crude stockpiles was outweighed by the large buildup in inventories of petroleum products, which rose by 4.6 million barrels compared to one week ago. Analysts had only expected an increase of 1.5 million barrels.

Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 43.80, take profit at 43.30, stop loss at 44.50

AUD/NZD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 11:50 13/09/2016
Till GMT 21:00 14/09/2016

Buy at 1.02600
Take profit at 1.03000
Stop loss at 1.02400

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Daily Report on September 15, 2016

Global equities extended their rout in Asian trading hours on Thursday as a tumble in crude oil sapped investor appetite for risky assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.5%, prolonging the retreat to a sixth consecutive day, and marking the longest losing streak in four months. Japan’s Topix index also posted losses, sliding for a seventh day.

Data by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday reported a rise in the number of people leaving the labor force, which helped reduce the unemployment rate to the lowest level since September 2013. Australia’s jobless rate fell to the lowest in almost three years in August, coming in at 5.6% from 5.7% in July. Fewer people sought work, dampening the participation rate lower to 64.7% from 64.9%. Specifically, in contrast to economists’ forecast of a 15,000 gain in the number of people employed, employment actually dropped significantly, with the number of people employed falling by 3,900 from July.

Elsewhere, Statistics New Zealand announced that the country’s second-quarter gross domestic product increased by only 0.9 percent from the previous three months, missing the 1.1 percent expansion forecast by economists. The New Zealand Dollar was down 0.2 percent after the report.

Today, investor attention will be on the two central bank meetings at the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. The BOE’s assessment of how the economy has performed since its last gathering on Aug. 4 will be in the spotlight. The central bank is forecast to maintain an unchanged policy, after easing rates last month, after data released recently , indicated that projections for a sharp slowdown in Britain's economy after June's Brexit vote, could be overestimating the potential damage.

Technicals
CADJPY

Fig: CADJPY H4 Technical Chart
CADJPY is falling further, having already lost more than 300 pips (3.6%) from the highs around 80.300. The downtrend does show signs of weakening with shorter bodies in the recent candles. However, the two MAs placed above the price action, continue to fuel the bearish momentum in the pair. The RSI is pointing downwards and heading down from the neutral threshold. CADJPY is expected to slide further.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 77.400, take profit at 77.000, stop loss at 77.620

NZDUSD

Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart
The slide in NZDUSD resumed after a period of correction yesterday. NZDUSD has fallen out of the upward slopping range and is struggling with the support at 0.72640. The lower boundary of the trading channel which has just been breached has now turned into a resistance which suppressed the pair’s attempt to break back into the channel. The pair may fall deeper to the zone of support at 0.72070 should the current support levels be broken as the bear is overshadowing the market and casting downward pressure on the pair.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 0.72600, take profit at 0.72070, stop loss at 0.73000

EURCAD

Fig: EURCAD D1 Technical Chart
EURCAD has been registering a strong rally which helped the pair break out of the shrinking trading range formed during the April-August period. After a sharp increase, bulls seem to be getting weaker. As can be seen in the stochastic chart, the +DI line is heading downwards. Still, the ADX index is soaring higher, combined with a rising RSI, suggesting further advances.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 1.48600, take profit at 1.49260, stop loss at 1.47785

SILVER

Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart
Silver has been restrained below the MA20 for a while, and is forming lower highs after failed attempts to break through this flexible resistance. The %K line and %D line on the stochastic chart are pointing down towards the oversold area, indicating a market in favor of the bears. Nonetheless, as the support at 18.765 is within sight, the current decline may be limited.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 18.875, take profit at 18.765, stop loss at 19.000

BRENT

Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart
Brent crude pulled back to above 46.00 from nearly two-week lows at 45.69. The rebound came in as a result of an oversold market. Recent up candles with short bodies suggest that the slump is expected to resume soon as sellers are overwhelming. The two MA's are placed above the price action and the price has not been able to cross over the MA's despite some recent attempts to do so. Key support at 45.30 is anticipated to be retested.
Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 46.10, take profit at 45.30, stop loss at 46.50

FTSE

Fig: FSTE H4 Technical Chart
The FTSE has hit the low at 6660.00 three times in the last three days but failed to break this major technical level on every attempt. Lower highs are being formed on the stochastic chart, indicating an underlying bear that is gaining strength. Any uptrend at this moment seems to be limited as the downward pressure is coming from both MAs placed above the price action as well as the upper boundary of the downward sloping trading range, that the prices are currently trading within.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 6660.00, take profit at 6610.70, stop loss at 6720.00

Uncertain Acquisition Deal Clouds Oracle’s Future Outlook– Short Positions Suggested

Oracle Corporation is scheduled to release its first-quarter financial results for fiscal year 2017 after the market closes on Thursday. The company is expected to report an EPS of 58 cents per share on adjusted earnings and revenues of $ 8.7 billion, compared to $8.5 billion last year.

Oracle has been on a path of progress towards transitioning to cloud based products and services. The company is focusing on a deal to acquire San Mateo- based software company NetSuite at the price of $9.3 billion. The acquisition is needed for Oracle to bolster sales of cloud-based tools to compensate for declining traditional hardware and software license revenues.

Oracle has reported five straight quarters of declining sales and is being left behind in the competition with cloud software vendors such as Salesforce.com and Workday.

Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 40.20, Take profit at 40.00, Stop loss at 40.50

GBPUSD Ignores Subdued U.S data, Weighed by Potential BOE Rate Cut – Longs Still Profitable

British Pound snapped yesterday’s gains versus the U.S dollar after the Bank of England telegraphed a potential rate cut later this year. Meanwhile, faltering US retail sales and producer prices in August didn’t provide much support on the currency pair.

After cutting its benchmark interest rate and unleashing a quantitative easing program worth £435 billion ($576 billion) last month to cushion an economic downturn following the Brexit vote, the BOE left unchanged its key interest rate at a record low 0.25% and made no further changes to the size of its QE program on Thursday.

Given the recent data that reported the U.K economy performing stronger than expected, BOE officials were also unanimous on continuing with the plan of purchasing gilts and corporate bonds, and offering ultra-cheap loans to banks. However, nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee noted that near-term data could not be used to draw inferences for longer-term forecasts. Thus, there is a chance for a further cut in interest rates in 2016, should the economy weaken.

Earlier on Thursday, the Office for National Statistics reported that retail sales fell by 0.2% in August compared to July, translating into a 6.2% advance compared to the same period last year. Today’s data reported a smaller decline than the 0.4% fall expected, after July’s sales figures had been revised upwards, marking the strongest annualized rate of growth for the month of July since 2001.

In the U.S, a chain of economic data came out earlier today. But most of them failed to generate positive signals. U.S. wholesale prices were reported to be flat in August, mostly because of sharp declines in the cost of food and gasoline. This consequently dampened retail prices for the same goods and dragged the overall retail price index down by 0.3%.

Sales at U.S. retailers fell for the first time in five months. Not only were department stores suffering losses due to the robust of online sales, internet sellers were also hit for the first time since the start of 2015. Only grocers and clothing outlets recorded an increase last month. Supported by back-to-school demand, sales at apparel stores climbed the most by 0.7%.

Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, ticked lower by 0.1% in August after falling by 0.4% one month earlier.
In a separate report, the Federal Reserve announced that output at American manufacturers fell 0.4% in August. The consensus forecast had called for a decline of 0.2%. The results are consistent with the ISM’s factory survey for August, which had signaled a contraction, and also worsened the outlook for producers, after a private survey of purchasing managers last week showed that manufacturing contracted in August.
The softer than expected data from the US, however, failed to lend support to the GBP and GBPUSD was trading down 0.2% in late morning US trade.


GBPUSD has been on a decline for more than a week, with the price action moving from the upper boundary of the upward trading channel straight to the lower boundary of the trading channel and also breaking through the short and long term MA’s in the process. The pair eventually fell out the range and has failed to crawl back. However, the down move is now facing a strong zone of support marked by the downward sloping trendline that connects previously registered lows of significance. Further declines are expected but a bounceback may occur when the market attempts a test of the red trendline.

Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 1.31650, take profit at 1.32100, stop loss at 1.31300

Natural Gas/USD signal by Capital Street FX
From GMT 15:00 14/09/2016
Till GMT 21:00 15/09/2016
Sell at 2.850
Take profit at 2.810
Stop loss at 2.890

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Daily Report on September 16, 2016

U.S equities rebounded overnight, powered by a softer greenback and a surge in oil prices. Faltering U.S data released on Thursday indicated underlying weakness in the economy and sapped any confidence that the U.S is strong enough to withstand headwinds stemming from a rate tightening. The prospect of a rate hike next week was certainly off the table, causing the U.S dollar to weaken versus most of its peers.

Consequently, Asian shares rose from a six-week low on Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.5 percent, trimming this week’s slide to 2.3 percent. Japan’s Topix index nudged up 0.4 percent, while benchmarks in Australia, New Zealand and Singapore also gained at least 0.8 percent. Markets in China, Taiwan, Malaysia, and South Korea were closed today for holidays.

Crude prices resumed their decline in Asian trading hours, heading towards finishing lower on the week as traders grow concerned about the resumption of supplies from OPEC members such as Libya and Nigeria, whose production had been disrupted by domestic conflicts and political turmoil. Brent crude was trading around $46.20 per barrel while light sweet crude, WTI slid back to around $43.50 per barrel.

The two central banks holding their policy meetings yesterday, decided to leave their rates unchanged. The Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.25% while the Swiss National Bank also held its deposit rate unchanged at -0.75%. The Bank of Japan and the U.S Federal Reserve are scheduled to release their rate decisions next week. While a U.S rate hike possibility is almost zero, analysts are still divided on whether the Japanese central bank could make any changes its stimulus program on Sep. 21.

Technicals
AUDUSD

Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart
AUDUSD is attempting to head out of the downward slopping channel after pulling back from the 50% retracement level. However, besides the upper boundary of the channel, the pair is facing another stiff resistance that is the 38.2% level at 0.75255. With the %K line penetrating the %D line from above, near the overbought area, AUDUSD is expected to give up its rise and tumble.
Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 0.74900, Stop loss at 0.74520, Take profit at 0.75255

EURJPY

Fig: EURJPY H4 Technical Chart
EURJPY has been locked between the support at 113.900 and the resistance at 116.130 for three weeks. The pair has broken through both the short-term and long-term MA's and is heading down towards the lower boundary of the price range. With the confirmation from the RSI that has lowered below 50, the Euro is expected to lose ground against the Japanese Yen.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 144.535, Stop loss at, Take profit at 114.225

GBPAUD

Fig: GBPAUD H4 Technical Chart
GBPAUD has been in a strong rally with firm support from the two MAs placed below the price action. The pair has consistently reversed higher after every attempt to test the MA20 or the MA50, and this time is not expected to be an exception. The British pound has just pulled back from the 50-period moving average and is expected to extend the rise versus the Aussie.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 1.76300, Stop loss at 1.75750, Take profit at 1.76710

GOLD

Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart
Gold has fallen back below the resistance at 1315.00 after the spike in volatility yesterday. At one point the precious metal attempted a peek beyond the major level of resistance at 1325.00. A divergence between the –DI line and the +DI line, combined with a rising ADX, has confirmed a strengthening downtrend. Further declines are forecast.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1314.00, Stop loss at 1319.00, Take profit at 1305.00

WTI

Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart
After creating a number of lower lows, the crude price is coming up against a major zone of support at 43.30 once again. This level has seen the price consistently reverse higher since mid-August. The price action has broken through the two MA's from above, and both MA's placed above the price action are exerting significant pressure. However, as the RSI has neared the oversold zone, and upcoming bounce-back could be expected.
Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 43.30, Stop loss at 42.40, Take profit at 44.10

EURO50

Fig: Euro Stoxx 50 H4 Technical Chart
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index created a small gap down on the market open and is paring yesterday’s gains. The index failed to breach the support at 2948.00 yet again. The two MAs are currently placed above the price action which is supporting the downtrend, after prices broke through both MA's from above, earlier in the month. However, in case bears reign in the market today, the support level at 2948.00 still seems a challenging level, that is unlikely to be breached.

Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 2948.00, Stop loss at 2920.00, Take profit at 2972.40



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Daily Report on September 19, 2016

Asian stocks advanced on Monday following their biggest weekly drop in three months, as a rebound in crude prices bolstered risk appetite ahead of widely watched central bank policy meetings to be held later this week.
Oil prices climbed almost 2 percent on Monday from one-month lows, amid clashes in Libya, which disrupted supplies. In other supporting developments, Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro stated that OPEC and non-OPEC producers were close to reaching an output stabilization deal, and the deal could be announced this month to end a persistent supply glut which has resulted in a collapse in crude prices over the past two years.
China’s central bank was reported to have intervened in the currency markets. The cost to borrow the yuan overnight in Hong Kong surged the most since January, soaring by 15.7 percentage points to 23.7 percent. The People’s Bank of China was suspected to be squeezing liquidity to boost the exchange rate and discourage short positions on the local currency before the Federal Reserve’s review of monetary policy, later this week.
The British Pound continued to plummet at the start of the new week amidst rising rumors around the status of the U.K's membership in the single market after Britain leaves the EU. While UK Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to trigger the formal process of leaving the European Union as soon as January or February next year, the country’s politicians are split on whether the UK should try to retain a close link with the EU or break away entirely from the single market.
Japan’s markets are closed Monday for a holiday. China, Taiwan and South Korea have returned after a three-day break.

Technicals
GBPAUD

Fig: GBPAUD H4 Technical Chart
GBPAUD has been nose-diving from two-and-a-half-month highs at around 1.78007 and is heading towards a retest of the last low at 1.72600. As a result of the sharp decline, the MA20 has converged with the MA50 from above, and both MA's are placed above the price action. More downward pressure is expected to be exerted on the pair. However, a market that has already entered the oversold zone may soon witness a bounce-back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 1.72600, Take profit at 1.74100, Stop loss at 1.72020

EURCHF

Fig: EURCHF H4 Technical Chart
EURCHF has been trading in an ascending trading range with higher lows being created since the start of August. Meanwhile, the pair has continuously failed to knock out the 61.8% level. The ADX is currently under 20, suggesting that no clear trend is being formed in the market. However, with the stochastic lines pointing upwards, combined with the fact that the market has just successfully bounced back after testing the support trendline, EURCHF is forecast to re-attempt a test of the 61.8% resistance.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 1.09450, Take profit at 1.09770, Stop loss at 1.09190

AUDUSD

Fig: AUDUSD H1 Technical Chart
AUDUSD has successfully broken through the resistance at the 38.2% retracement level at 0.75255 and at the same time is on the brink of falling into the oversold area. The pair was trading sideways in Asian trading hours following a strong rise. As the 38.2% level is expected to turn into a new support zone, along with with two MAs placed below the price action, the pair is anticipated to continue its climb.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 0.75450, Take profit at 0.75660, Stop loss at 0.75200

SILVER

Fig: SILVER H1 Technical Chart
Silver has entered a period of consolidation after soaring decisively from the lows at around 18.765 to near the upper boundary of the price range at 19.200. From the stochastic chart, the %K line has crossed over the %D line from above in the overbought territory. Some corrective moves may be witnessed before the metal attempts to resume its rally.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 19.130, Take profit at 19.365, Stop loss at 19.000

COPPER

Fig: Copper H4 Technical Chart
Copper retreated from nearly one-month highs at 2.1668 and has broken below the MA20 at 2.138 from above, signaling a reversal into downtrend. A Near-term target could be around the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 2.1320. On the stochastic charts, the %K line and %D line have dipped to below 50 and are heading towards the oversold zone.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 2.1425, Take profit at 2.1320, Stop loss at 2.1700

SP500

Fig: SP500 H1 Technical Chart
Cautious sentiment ahead of the central bank meetings can be witnessed clearly on the SP500 index chart with lower highs and higher lows. The market does not have a clearly defined direction currently. The futures index opened the Monday session with a wide gap up and broke out of the recent trading range. Support for the up-move are coming from the two MAs placed below the price action and a rising RSI.
Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 2148.00, Take profit at 2162.90, Stop loss at 2135.00

Investors Fleeing From Crude Even As Supply Controls Look Likely – Whats The Mystery?

Crude oil started the new week in positive territory after the clashes in Libya eased concerns over a global supply surplus amidst mounting signs that major oil producers are close to an output capping deal. However in a strange twist, oil investors are moving towards the sidelines as the meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC nations to discuss the freeze agreement draws closer.

Fighting between forces loyal to east-based military commander Khalifa Haftar and the local Petroleum Facilities Guard unit at the port of Ras Lanuf forced the tanker Seadelta to suspend the loading of 781,000 barrels of oil for shipment to Italy. Clashes in Libya have halted the loading of the first oil shipment from the port of Ras Lanuf since 2014, and turned a country which had pumped 1.6 million barrels per day into the second-lowest producer in the OPEC with an output of only 260,000 barrels a day in August.

Speaking at the end of a summit of the Non-Aligned Movement on Margarita Island on Sunday, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro stated that a deal to stabilize the oil market could be announced as soon as this month.

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, speaking on the sidelines of the same conference, said “Tehran welcomes any move aimed at market stability” but did not forget to mention the the words “fairness” and “fair quota” for all oil producers. OPEC’s third-largest producer has been ramping up its output after the sanctions imposed by the West were lifted in January, and is bargaining with OPEC on possible exemptions from output limits.

According to Algeria’s state news agency APS, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said he was optimistic about the meeting that is to be held on Sept. 26-28, and OPEC may convene an extraordinary formal meeting if oil ministers reach a consensus on oil markets at the informal gathering on the sidelines of a conference of the International Energy Forum later this month.

Ahead of the meeting, speculators trimmed their positions on both short and long futures contracts. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, wagers on falling West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell by 29,195 contracts to 101,079 contracts during the week ended Sept. 13. Long positions declined by 1.5%, bringing the net-long position 14 percent higher but reducing the total number of longs and shorts , also known as the Open Interest, to the lowest level since July.
WTI crude has bounced back from two-month lows at 43.00 in early trading today. The bounce back follows a decline that took away 5% of the crude value. There does not seem to be any concrete sign that confirms or signals a reversal into an uptrend. Both MAs are currently placed above the price chart, not to mention the fact that the 20-day MA has crossed the long-term MA50 from above. RSI also remains in bearish territory and is not even close to the neutral 50 line. Thus, the current rally may be limited.


Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 43.70, Take profit at 44.50, Stop loss at 42.65

AUD/NZD signal

From GMT 15:35 19/09/2016
Till GMT 21:00 19/09/2016

Buy at 1.03340
Take profit at 1.03670
Stop loss at 1.02900

Gold Advances On Weak Dollar – Funds Liquidating Longs En-Masse – Eyes On FOMC/BOJ

European session. The yellow metal trimmed earlier gains, retreating to around $1315.00 per ounce troy in the wake of the fact that hedge funds were reported to have reduced their long exposure to bullion by the most in more than three months, as they begin to doubt a continuation of the recent post-Brexit gold rally.
According to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released last Friday, the net-long position in gold futures and options dropped by 11 percent to 248,858 contracts for the week ended Sept. 13. This is the biggest decline since the week ended May 24.

The decline in gold holdings can be explained by cautious sentiment among investors ahead of central bank meetings by the U.S Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan later this week. Gold is expected to keep moving in a sideways to ascending fashion within a narrow range till the market is able to resolve its direction upwards/downwards, after the FOMC/BOJ meetings.

Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 1313.00, Stop loss at 1310.00, Take profit at 1317.00

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Daily Report on September 20, 2016
Market Cautious Ahead Of FED, BOJ - Oil under Pressure
Asian stocks hovered near one-week highs on Tuesday as investors were nervously waiting for the Bank of Japan and the U.S Federal Reserve’s policy decisions tomorrow. U.S equities closed lower overnight after paring earlier gains. The S&P500 inched lower to 2,139.12, the Dow Jones fell 0.02 percent to 18,120.17 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.18 percent to 5,235.03.
Investors are also keeping an eye out for the first debate of the U.S. presidential election which is scheduled for next Monday. According to market sources, traders are “in a cycle in the market where political uncertainty and economic uncertainty are just so high that investors are taking advantage of any move up to sell and any selloff to buy. As a result we’re stuck in a trading range."
Confidence among U.S. Home builders surged to an 11-month high in September, according to data released on Monday from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo. The gauge for builder sentiment increased to 65 from a downwardly revised reading of 59 in July, indicating an improving housing market. In its monthly report, NAHB noted that builder sentiment is being bolstered by the presence of “more serious buyers.”
Oil prices tumbled today after Venezuela’s Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino stated on Monday that global crude supplies needed to fall by 10 percent to match consumption levels, which means producers will need to cut their output by 9.4 million barrels per day in order to resolve the oversupply situation.

Technicals
NZDUSD

Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart
NZDUSD is attempting to escape the current sideways trading range from 0.72500 to 0.73150 after a number of failed attempts. The pair fell back into this price range after breaking below the ascending channel. The RSI index has surpassed the 50 threshold, suggesting moves to the upside. The price has just broken above both the MA's and is attempting to retest the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Still, the resistance at 0.73433 should be watched as a level at which the pair may possibly fail and reverse.
Trade suggestion
Sell Limit at 0.73433, Take profit at 0.73150, Stop loss at 0.73700

EURUSD

Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart
EURUSD extended its decline after peaking just above the 38.3% retracement at 1.11894. A weak bull failed to sustain the up moves and had to let go of its strength. The last three bearish candles with long upper shadows indicate a strong bearish sentiment in the market that depresses the price lower whenever it tends to rise. Both the MA's are placed above the price action and the RSI is well below the neutral threshold at 50. With the bearish sentiment reigning in the market, EURUSD is expected to retest the low at 1.11500
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1.11700, Take profit at 1.11500, Stop loss at 1.11920

EURNZD

Fig: EURNZD H4 Technical Chart
EURNZD has been on a slide and may continue to fall further. The short-term MA20 has just converged with the long-term MA50 from above, and the price action broke below both the MA's from above more than a week ago and continues to head low. This indicates that the downtrend is set to extend further. However, RSI has neared the oversold zone, and the market is approaching an important support level at 1.52110. The market may witness a short term corrective pullback near this level.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1.52490, Take profit at 1.52110, Stop loss at 1.52910

GOLD

Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart
Gold is currently swinging between gains and losses around the level 1315.00 but has been in a downtrend in general. The precious metal has been being constrained under the 20-period moving averages for a while and it seems hard for the price to make a breakout currently amid cautious sentiment on the market. The MA50 has also turned lower and with both MA's placed above the price action and a lacklustre RSI, the market looks to be lacking any momentum at the moment.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1315.00, Take profit at 1312.00, Stop loss at 1318.40

BRENT

Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart
Brent crude once again collapsed from the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 46.74 and fell back under the MA20. The steep drop has pushed the market into the oversold zone and a brief period of the market consolidating sideways to upwards on short covering may last until the crude resumes its slide. With both MA's placed above the price action and the stochastics not indicating an end to down-move just yet, the market may continue moving lower.
Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 45.70, Take profit at 45.30, Stop loss at 46.30

NASDAQ

Fig: NASDAQ H4 Technical Chart
NASDAQ100 index could not resist the pressure of the record high at 4843.89, plummeting decisively to last Friday's low at around 4790.30. The slide only slowed down after the prices hit the MA20 and bounced back. The ADX index has fallen back below 20, showing that no clear trend is being formed in the market as yet. The short and long term MA's are still placed below the price action providing support to the market. However the market seems to be getting top heavy near the highs.
Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 4790.30, Take profit at 4815.20, Stop loss at 4769.00

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GBP/AUD signal

From GMT 11:30 20/09/2016
Till GMT 21:00 20/09/2016

Sell at 1.71800
Take profit at 1.71310
Stop loss at 1.21610

Will A Supply Deficit Power Silver Higher Post Central Bank Meetings?

Silver inched higher in European trading hours on Tuesday, extending yesterday’s gains after two consecutive weeks of closing in the red. Year to date, the grey metal has outperformed gold, oil and many other commodities thanks to a softening dollar, highly volatile markets and growing global demand.

There is only one day until the U.S Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan announce their rate decisions and publish their economic assessments. While the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, the BOJ remains a mystery when it comes to which stimulus measure will be deployed. Possible options not only include cutting rates further into negative territory, but also buying more bonds and even maintaining current policies as is. All options will be taken into consideration at this week’s meeting. Whatever the outcomes may be, U.S and Japanese economies will continue to remain under accommodative monetary policies, echoing the general tone of policy easing all over the world.

Artificially low interest rates, disappointing economic indicators and political uncertainty (including the Brexit aftermath and upcoming U.S presidential elections in November) have caused investors to flock into safe haven assets such as silver and gold.

In general, silver prices often move in the same direction as gold prices but due to smaller market volume, silver tends to be the more volatile precious metal. Additionally, while gold is a purely monetary instrument and used for investing purposes mostly, silver demand is also derived from industrial applications.
“The World Silver Survey 2016,” an annual report published by The Silver Institute published in May said that the silver market in 2015 witnessed a physical deficit of roughly 130 million ounces, as demand increased by 39 million ounces to 1.17 billion ounces, outpacing 1.04 billion ounces of total supply. 2015 represents the third consecutive year of deficits and marks the second-largest deficit year since 2008.

High demand was driven by higher retail investment, jewelry and silverware fabrication and solar and demand for ethylene oxide catalyst. The report noted that demand for silver in solar panels grew by 23% on a yearly basis to 77.6 million ounces, demand by investors for bars and coins surged by more than 56 million ounces to 292.3 million ounces, while demand from the jewelry and silverware industries increased for the third consecutive year and hit a fresh record high of 226.5 million ounces.

According to a report published in August by Capital Gold Group, demand for silver used in solar panel manufacturing will “sky-rocket in the next five years” as industrial economies such as US, Japan, Germany and China try to bolster their green credentials by shifting from burning fossil fuels to using renewable energies to produce electricity.

Against the background that silver demand is increasing, the supply side seems subdued. Around three quarters of the world’s silver output is a by-product of mining for other metals. Therefore, cuts in capital expenditure and the closure of zinc, lead and copper mines over the last two years due to more stringent environmental policies in China and aging mines in Australia and production cutbacks by the biggest mining companies have effectively driven down the supply of silver.


Silver has been moving sideways for nearly two weeks between the resistance at the 23.8% retracement level at 19.365 and the support at 18.765. As a result, the ADX index has ticked lower below 20, suggesting cautiousness in the market that is keeping both sellers and buyers on the sidelines. The price action is trading very close to the MA’s and the MA’s themselves are tied very close together. Further the RSI is also crawling very close to the neutral level. All of this indicates a market that is range bound for the moment.The metal is expected to continue this current consolidation period until a breakout stemming from the fundamental side, coupled with cues from related markets such as gold and the US Dollar define a new direction.

Trade suggestion
Buy Stop at 19.200, Take profit at 19.370, Stop loss at 18.940