Where is the risk? | Forex Factory

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Where is the risk?

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 8, 2016 9:22pm Sep 8, 2016 9:22pm
This journal is about
***Analyzing interbank dealers' ways of offsetting-balancing risks before and after high impact (especially unexpected) event***.

High impact (especially unexpected) event is when they are most vulnerable. By analyzing price patterns before and after those events, i hope to understand the way they manage risks and follow the flow.

Here a simple tool i made:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 250 KB


I think about sharing the tool here but i'm still thinking.
I'm still struggle with AUD, CAD and Gold.

From 10K to ~17K, back to ~4K with Gold and AUD trades, amazing run to 100K, dropped to ~7K with CAD and Gold trades, return to ~35k then bust with Gold trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 12 KB
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #2
  • Sep 10, 2016 9:14pm Sep 10, 2016 9:14pm
AUD focused.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 182 KB
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #3
  • Sep 14, 2016 4:27am Sep 14, 2016 4:27am
HI Zelo!It is pleasant to see that who didn't give up.. https://gyazo.com/3317e7edfe5dbb5d712979a467af0138 ----you remember from where it?
  • #4
  • Sep 14, 2016 11:28pm Sep 14, 2016 11:28pm
Quoting KitoKioto
HI Zelo!It is pleasant to see that who didn't give up.. https://gyazo.com/3317e7edfe5dbb5d712979a467af0138 ----you remember from where it?
Good luck with that thing. You think trillion usd market can be solved with that thing. Then your head is full of sh*t.
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #5
  • Sep 14, 2016 11:34pm Sep 14, 2016 11:34pm
F*ck gold.

Finally, i find a way to invest in commodity currencies and gold profitably.

The only thing to fix now is my discipline.
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #6
  • Sep 14, 2016 11:36pm Sep 14, 2016 11:36pm
long JPY

Attached Image
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #7
  • Edited 2:24am Sep 15, 2016 12:11am | Edited 2:24am

Just realize that current time is still in Asian session so above trade doesn't count.
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #8
  • Sep 15, 2016 2:23am Sep 15, 2016 2:23am
LONG USD against other currencies.
And Short Gold against USD.

Hope this works!
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #9
  • Sep 15, 2016 6:53am Sep 15, 2016 6:53am


First post in wrong session. Second post sucks too!
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #10
  • Sep 15, 2016 7:51am Sep 15, 2016 7:51am
SHORT GBP.

More into CHF + JPY than EUR + USD

When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #11
  • Sep 15, 2016 9:44am Sep 15, 2016 9:44am
Above one sucks too.

To be continue on Next week.
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #12
  • Sep 16, 2016 11:30pm Sep 16, 2016 11:30pm
I have an awesome stats that i want to share. I hope it will encourage anyone who is learning Mispricing/Imbalance/Balance,... It prove that they will correct mispricing or rebalance their books most of time.

Focus on JPY in JPY/GBP, M5 period.

Some explanations:
Inside range and Outside range
Retrace = CD / CB
Range = BC
Prev Range = CB / AB
Bars = 48 bars on M5 = 4 hours
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 20 KB


How to read:
Avg. Retrace = 1.96157249881028 = CD / CB = 190% (like fibo retracement)
Avg. Range = 0.332947331236634 = 439 pips if GBP/JPY = 133.000
Avg. Bars = 48.1428571428571 = 4 hours
Retrace >= 20% : 1 = 100% price retrace to >= 20% of CB
Retrace >= 50% : 1 = 100% price retrace to >= 50% of CB
Retrace >= 80% : 0.785714285714286 = 78% price retrace to >= 80% of CB
Retrace >= 100% : 0.714285714285714 = 71% price retrace to >= 100% of CB

Inserted Code
 
May
Up   Inside Range
Count = 53 | Satisfied Condition = 14
Avg. Retrace = 1.96157249881028
Avg. Range = 0.332947331236634
Avg. Bars = 48.1428571428571
Retrace >= 20% : 1
Retrace >= 50% : 1
Retrace >= 80% : 0.785714285714286
Retrace >= 100% : 0.714285714285714
Down Inside Range
Count = 53 | Satisfied Condition = 8
Avg. Retrace = 1.08500517534311
Avg. Range = 0.426390217938261
Avg. Bars = 38.625
Retrace >= 20% : 1
Retrace >= 50% : 0.875
Retrace >= 80% : 0.625
Retrace >= 100% : 0.375
Up   Outside Range
Count = 53 | Satisfied Condition = 20
Avg. Retrace = 0.866609571871577
Avg. Range = 0.6697946680291
Avg. Bars = 30.8
Avg. Prev Range = 2.08530635808035
Retrace >= 20% : 1
Retrace >= 50% : 0.7
Retrace >= 80% : 0.3
Retrace >= 100% : 0.25
Down Outside Range
Count = 53 | Satisfied Condition = 11
Avg. Retrace = 0.470380858938564
Avg. Range = 0.901088001131285
Avg. Bars = 28.3636363636364
Avg. Prev Range = 2.77245390478832
Retrace >= 20% : 0.818181818181818
Retrace >= 50% : 0.272727272727273
Retrace >= 80% : 0.0909090909090909
Retrace >= 100% : 0.0909090909090909
 
July
Up   Inside Range
Count = 142 | Satisfied Condition = 37
Avg. Retrace = 2.00828305120174
Avg. Range = 0.420631095062722
Avg. Bars = 24.1891891891892
Retrace >= 20% : 1
Retrace >= 50% : 0.891891891891892
Retrace >= 80% : 0.756756756756757
Retrace >= 100% : 0.702702702702703
Down Inside Range
Count = 142 | Satisfied Condition = 27
Avg. Retrace = 1.26054892445697
Avg. Range = 0.478372819545663
Avg. Bars = 20.7407407407407
Retrace >= 20% : 1
Retrace >= 50% : 0.777777777777778
Retrace >= 80% : 0.666666666666667
Retrace >= 100% : 0.555555555555556
Up   Outside Range
Count = 142 | Satisfied Condition = 38
Avg. Retrace = 0.801773488794283
Avg. Range = 0.870322957343375
Avg. Bars = 20.5263157894737
Avg. Prev Range = 2.51087032577771
Retrace >= 20% : 0.894736842105263
Retrace >= 50% : 0.631578947368421
Retrace >= 80% : 0.447368421052632
Retrace >= 100% : 0.263157894736842
Down Outside Range
Count = 142 | Satisfied Condition = 40
Avg. Retrace = 1.0004088704678
Avg. Range = 0.915762851740232
Avg. Bars = 20.475
Avg. Prev Range = 2.24157251365159
Retrace >= 20% : 1
Retrace >= 50% : 0.625
Retrace >= 80% : 0.4
Retrace >= 100% : 0.3

In June, Inside range stats it is similar but outside stats is skewed because of Brexit, so i don't post.

If you interest in how to reproduce those results,

Download data from dukascopy, M5 period

Find ZigZags with at least 6 bars (30 minutes), 0.2% pips (202 pips if USD/JPY rate = 101.0)

Then check ZigZag points Low to High or High to Low to see if they are imblance

Then check next ZigZag leg


I have manually checked results 2 times, yesterday night and today morning, randomly from January to August, all JPY pairs and GBP pairs.
But i think will re-check my code another time and re-code in Python or ask a friend to check my code to make sure i'm not make any mistake.

P/S: Damn!!! GBP short worked after a day, i post too soon, i didn't realize that they need to rebalance before break out, and USD/EUR, USD/CHF, USD/GOLD, too
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #13
  • Sep 16, 2016 11:41pm Sep 16, 2016 11:41pm
This just came to my mind (i have this mistakes): When trade imbalance you should be careful if small imbalance inside big imbalance and small one is opposite direction of big one.
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #14
  • Sep 17, 2016 6:34am Sep 17, 2016 6:34am
There is some failed one on July:
Attached Image


And on May:
Attached Image


They are for reference only. Some failed are not exactly failed, it can be too small to clear or to big imbalance too clear.
Some successful are not exactly successful. Some cannot tradable.
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #15
  • Sep 17, 2016 9:19pm Sep 17, 2016 9:19pm
What to trade for this year?
Gold/X, JPY/X, GBP/X, AUD/X (except NZD, CAD), NZD/X (except AUD, CAD)
USD, EUR, CHF is most balance
For CAD, i don't have interest because i'm from Vietnam, 12 hours different.

From January to August in 2016:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 59 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 57 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 60 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot4.png Size: 60 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot5.png Size: 58 KB


Numbers came out as expected, luckily!
I don't have data for silver, will update later.

I can't login Dukascopy to download data, because of recent storm affect our international internet connection again. (F*ck).
To be Updated later.

P/S: I'm lazy to explain here.
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #16
  • Sep 17, 2016 10:43pm Sep 17, 2016 10:43pm
What i found are confirmation for what UnnamedPlayr's posts which are from 2011. He had exploited it since then. (Not sure has or had is correct, lol)

BTW, have anyone done this?
GBP/JPY on M5

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 9 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 14 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 12 KB
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #17
  • Sep 18, 2016 4:59am Sep 18, 2016 4:59am
Quoting Zelo
What i found are confirmation for what UnnamedPlayr's posts which are from 2011. He had exploited it since then. (Not sure has or had is correct, lol) BTW, have anyone done this? GBP/JPY on M5 {image} {image} {image}

What is it Zelo?
  • #18
  • Sep 18, 2016 11:42pm Sep 18, 2016 11:42pm
Quoting tradeforlife
{quote} What is it Zelo?
What is what?
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #19
  • Sep 23, 2016 8:55pm Sep 23, 2016 8:55pm
Enjoying only a few trades because of BOJ and FED.

Spending free time to code something timeline like EUR Long, JPY Short (against USD), but accidentally discovering what borrow and withdraw look like in chart pattern. And how it affects another currencies. Previously, i bet imbalance will become balance, but now i find a way to trade after the balancing process.
That leads to correctly short GBP, short CHF, short NZD, long EUR in Friday.

With the numbers from my findings, i can make a trading map and estimate risk/reward, retrace, time to wait,... with confident.
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #20
  • Sep 23, 2016 9:57pm Sep 23, 2016 9:57pm
Where is the risk?
When something is usually in control that breaks out of control. There will be a risk.
Gần giống như chăn gà vậy, tạo 1 cái chuồng, lùa gà vô chăn. Rủi ro là khi gà xổng chuồng, hay sói nhảy vào. Offset risk như mua bảo hiểm.

The purpose of this journal is to record what i find when analyze unexpected market events, how market react before and after. But i am lazy to post the result.

Then i found something along the way. I may name it "How bank dealer control currencies with another currency or How to trade currencies based on another currency".
Gần đây thì thứ năm có GBP cố tạo control nhưng failed.
Thứ sáu thì USD dùng JPY như đòn bẩy để đẩy NZD và GBP break out outside range, sau khi sổ sách được cân bằng (after books are bablanced), lúc đó sẽ tạo trend. NZD and GBP continued to lower.
Dùng cách hiểu này để giải thích thì khi trade sẽ minimize risk, clear other useless indicators out of chart.
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
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