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  • #281
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:49am Sep 15, 2016 3:49am
Quoting Exodus
Just on the radio, the construction of the Hinckley Point nuclear power station is to go ahead. On the face of it this seems like an answer to the burgeoning shortfall in generating capacity on the edge of which the UK is teetering. The strike price of generated electricity has been reduced to about 90 per MWhr. (apologies for forgetting the exact number) Let us just think about that for a moment. The price a consumer currently pays for supplied electricity is around 13p per kWhr, which is equivalent to 130 per MWhr. So using current pricing for...

Are you sure you have that pricing right, I thought (perhaps mistakeningly) that the price for energy was nearly double the current spot price or something.

In other words the government committed itself to paying a higher rate for longer.

I really hoped May would have said no to this, because of where the funding is coming from, and the political inclinations of that country towards the West.
  • #282
  • Sep 15, 2016 4:06am Sep 15, 2016 4:06am
Quoting verv
{quote} Are you sure you have that pricing right, I thought (perhaps mistakeningly) that the price for energy was nearly double the current spot price or something. In other words the government committed itself to paying a higher rate for longer. I really hoped May would have said no to this, because of where the funding is coming from, and the political inclinations of that country towards the West.
I am repeating (badly) what I heard on R4 this morning.

There has been an 'improvement' on the contracted price which has been reduced from ~£100MWhr to the most recent figure ~ £90+.

However the flabbergasting element is the fact that the French will be paying around 2/3rds per MWhr.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #283
  • Sep 15, 2016 4:20am Sep 15, 2016 4:20am
Here we are, £92.50 per MWhr
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37369786
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #284
  • Sep 15, 2016 8:17am Sep 15, 2016 8:17am
Quoting Exodus
Here we are, 92.50 per MWhr http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37369786
It might be because the thing is being built essentially for free, by foreign investors.

I really don't know what I make of nuclear, for sure it is very cheap to produce, but the clean up afterwards, are they factoring in those costs?
  • #285
  • Sep 16, 2016 7:29am Sep 16, 2016 7:29am
The rise of non-fossil energy solutions. (from Digital Look (http://www.digitallook.com/))

" Shares in innovative US carmaker Tesla climbed on Thursday after the announcement that it had won a bid to provide a 20 megawatt energy grid to Southern California Edison.
Tesla will provide the "powerpacks" to the grid to avoid power shortages, focusing on the replacement fossil fuels for electricity generation with lithium-ion batteries.
The system will have the ability to power 2,500 homes when the construction of the project is finished, which is expected to happen before the end of the year.
"The Tesla Powerpack system will reduce the need for electricity generated by natural gas and further the advancement of a resilient and modern grid," Tesla said in a blog post.
Chief executive Elon Musk has been a major advocate of clean energy, and has mapped out a long-term idea that it will become a clean energy firm. It has been one of the first producers of electric-powered cars.
Tesla rose to $202.45 in Thursday trading, having opened at $196.49. "
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #286
  • Edited 9:10am Sep 16, 2016 7:52am | Edited 9:10am
Quoting Exodus
The rise of non-fossil energy solutions. (from Digital Look (http://www.digitallook.com/)) " Shares in innovative US carmaker Tesla climbed on Thursday after the announcement that it had won a bid to provide a 20 megawatt energy grid to Southern California Edison. Tesla will provide the "powerpacks" to the grid to avoid power shortages, focusing on the replacement fossil fuels for electricity generation with lithium-ion batteries. The system will have the ability to power 2,500 homes when the construction of the project is finished, which...
No doubt these alternative energies are coming, but I doubt Tesla will be the company driving us forward.

Here is Tesla short thesis:

Jim Chanos: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-10-12/jim-chanos-explains-his-short-of-tesla-solarcity

If you have the time watch this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMbhzeBACVk
  • #287
  • Sep 16, 2016 10:07am Sep 16, 2016 10:07am
Quoting verv
{quote} No doubt these alternative energies are coming, but I doubt Tesla will be the company driving us forward. Here is Tesla short thesis: Jim Chanos: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-10-12/jim-chanos-explains-his-short-of-tesla-solarcity If you have the time watch this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMbhzeBACVk
Thanks, that was interesting.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #288
  • Sep 18, 2016 5:15am Sep 18, 2016 5:15am
After a prolonged run-up, I have been checking the chart to see which events might signal that the time to take profits has arrived.

This chart is end-of-day closing prices, it would look different in candles.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #289
  • Sep 18, 2016 7:43am Sep 18, 2016 7:43am
Quoting Exodus
After a prolonged run-up, I have been checking the chart to see which events might signal that the time to take profits has arrived. This chart is end-of-day closing prices, it would look different in candles..... {image}
How long have you been holding? Never heard of these guys before.
  • #290
  • Sep 18, 2016 11:11pm Sep 18, 2016 11:11pm
Quoting verv
{quote} How long have you been holding? Never heard of these guys before.
About a couple of years.......

Exactly a couple of years! I am not sure if I noticed the IPO announcement or if I went looking after ASOS 'crashed'.

They IPO'd in March 2014, I bought in August and again in September of that year when they drooped after the initial enthusiasm. They sell their own products online only. Initially a slightly over-enthusiastic board failed to meet their Christmas 2014 target and that knocked them back. However I held because the revenue numbers were and are growing. I bought a few things for the kids and the quality seemed good. They are expanding their outlets internationally, now selling in about a dozen countries and benefiting from Brexit.

The business appears to have been started by two people, an entrepreneur-type and a clothing designer, and they attracted other board members from ASOS and TNT (?) parcel delivery. So the board seemed quite likely to make it succeed if there was a chance.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #291
  • Sep 19, 2016 8:07am Sep 19, 2016 8:07am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} About a couple of years....... Exactly a couple of years! I am not sure if I noticed the IPO announcement or if I went looking after ASOS 'crashed'. They IPO'd in March 2014, I bought in August and again in September of that year when they drooped after the initial enthusiasm. They sell their own products online only. Initially a slightly over-enthusiastic board failed to meet their Christmas 2014 target and that knocked them back. However I held because the revenue numbers were and are growing. I bought a few things for the kids...
I know I could just look this up myself, but I'm on mobile. How does their revenue look going forward, if it is growing at roughly the same rate then there is better than average chance the stock price continues to grow up.

It was a good buy, congrats.
  • #292
  • Sep 19, 2016 10:54am Sep 19, 2016 10:54am
Quoting verv
{quote} I know I could just look this up myself, but I'm on mobile. How does their revenue look going forward, if it is growing at roughly the same rate then there is better than average chance the stock price continues to grow up. It was a good buy, congrats.
Interim figures out 27th September, a week tomorrow (Tuesday). Near the beginning of August they published notice of interim results, along with advice that the figures were expected to be ahead of previous guidance. Growth now expected to be 28% to 33% ahead of last year's interim figures.

Going forward? ...my crystal ball is too full of smoke... They are already way ahead of all the analysts ... no surprise there then.

I have 3 targets in mind, plus watch for disaster of course.
145p, then 249p, then 620p.
It will be hard to not bail if we see 145p.

Just listening to The Clash (https://youtu.be/AL8chWFuM-s), which happens to be about 5 tracks on from the Madness thing I was listening to earlier......
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #293
  • Sep 19, 2016 3:16pm Sep 19, 2016 3:16pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Interim figures out 27th September, a week tomorrow (Tuesday). Near the beginning of August they published notice of interim results, along with advice that the figures were expected to be ahead of previous guidance. Growth now expected to be 28% to 33% ahead of last year's interim figures. Going forward? ...my crystal ball is too full of smoke... They are already way ahead of all the analysts ... no surprise there then. I have 3 targets in mind, plus watch for disaster of course. 145p, then 249p, then 620p. It will be hard to not bail...

Oh no - not the clash . I'm would post some of the music I like but I think you might vomit ha

with a company like this, with a unknown future and were growth rates make huge differences to terminal value you are probably better just trading it. valuing speculative companies can be hard.
  • #294
  • Sep 20, 2016 3:05am Sep 20, 2016 3:05am
Quoting verv
{quote} Oh no - not the clash . I'm would post some of the music I like but I think you might vomit ha with a company like this, with a unknown future and were growth rates make huge differences to terminal value you are probably better just trading it. valuing speculative companies can be hard.
There are a couple of things that make me wary, and a separate aspect which has similarities with the dot.com bubble.

First the bubble: the P/E ratios of 5 companies in the retailers section are huge. Normal healthy companies are anywhere between 5 and 30, but these five companies are between 60 and 200. Maybe the market has correctly assessed the potential of these companies ... except that one of these, ASOS, is sitting 100% or more above its recent low (couple of years ago) and still quite some way below its peak. Near the bottom of the list is boohoo.com, P/E at 80 currently and a market cap in excess of £1bn. Next up is ASOS with P/E around 100 and a market cap nearly £4bn.

Whilst I ponder upon this I notice that JP Morgan has recently raised its price target for ASOS by ~ 20% above current pricing.

The wary points: boohoo is AIM listed, not normally a problem except that the size of the company now exceeds a number of the members of the FTSE250 group. The larger share holdings are still with the founders or their families; any of them could decide to 'unload' because of divorce of simply wanting a nice pad in the Seychelles or somewhere.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #295
  • Edited 5:09am Sep 20, 2016 4:04am | Edited 5:09am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} There are a couple of things that make me wary, and a separate aspect which has similarities with the dot.com bubble. First the bubble: the P/E ratios of 5 companies in the retailers section are huge. Normal healthy companies are anywhere between 5 and 30, but these five companies are between 60 and 200. Maybe the market has correctly assessed the potential of these companies ... except that one of these, ASOS, is sitting 100% or more above its recent low (couple of years ago) and still quite some way below its peak. Near the bottom of the...

The earnings are reduced by acquisitions for expansion as measured by depreciation costs. A company expanding aggressively will have high depreciation cost which is reduced from income, and not reflective of actual 'normal' income.

So if you imagine the company stopped expanding tomorrow, the depreciation costs would reduce and in a few years the real profitability of the company would be apparent. In that situation the PE wouldn't look nearly as high.

You can tell the company is expanding rapidly by looking at the type acquisitions of the cashflow. Is it repair or maintenance expense (normal capex) or expansion costs.

------------
Old verv is rusty
  • #296
  • Sep 20, 2016 4:28am Sep 20, 2016 4:28am
Quoting verv
.... Good time to spruce on some old knowledge - before it disappears for good.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #297
  • Sep 20, 2016 4:35am Sep 20, 2016 4:35am
Quoting Exodus
{quote}
Take what I said above with a pinch of salt. Currently trying to reclaim knowledge - probably edit my list if there are any mistakes.
  • #298
  • Sep 27, 2016 2:01am Sep 27, 2016 2:01am
Waa-hey! That's a little better than 33%
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Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #299
  • Oct 11, 2016 3:54am Oct 11, 2016 3:54am
After yesterday's WTF moment I thought I had better draw another picture.
So here we are, still above the trend although as I write price has just dropped to last week's low....

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Pictures courtesy of Yahoo (https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BOO.L&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=)
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #300
  • Oct 21, 2016 3:23am Oct 21, 2016 3:23am
As the next opportunity presents itself the question concerning viability is running through my mind.

Back in 2008/9 there were a number of hubristic financial institutions going to the wall, notable names such as RBS and Bear Stearns, and a great many British former-mutual-institutions-turned-bank. Therefore it is with some caution that I consider Deutsche Bank as a play. Now is the time to decide whether DB is a rotten apple held up only by the fact that the skin has not yet ruptured, or whether it is simply experiencing the unwelcome glow of adverse publicity focused by some bad business decisions a few years ago.

Whilst I have no sympathy with the various bastards who created the financial catastrophe, from a trading view one should always be open....
Technically speaking ... there is a resistance which may give way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
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