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  • #181
  • Sep 15, 2016 3:56pm Sep 15, 2016 3:56pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
* * * NVAX trade: I currently have a covered call on in NVAX. Price has broken my 8 short call, and I've got 2 DTE. If price stays above $8 running into expiry, the shares will be called away and that will be that for the trade. Naturally, if price dips back below $8 at expiry, the $8 short call will expire worthless, and I will keep the premium represented by the short call, and I can continue to sell calls against my shares going forward. However, I can also roll the short call out for duration and credit, which I may...
This is why I prefer call spreads on highly speculative stocks. I learned the lesson the hard way in biotech.
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  • #182
  • Sep 15, 2016 5:36pm Sep 15, 2016 5:36pm
Quoting srt
{quote} This is why I prefer call spreads on highly speculative stocks. I learned the lesson the hard way in biotech. {image}
I know ... . Major yikes. As always, I go small with these little fellas. I may have gotten a touch greedy; could have closed it out yesterday for a decent profit ... .

In any event, I rolled out the Sept 16th 8 short call to the Oct 21st 9 short call at NY open for 1.23 credit, and my cost basis in the shares is 5.17/share, so it's not "horrid" in the grand scheme of things. However, I'll probably be selling calls against until the cows come home to get it to scratch (assuming those calls go for jack diddly squat going forward). They have other junk in the pipeline, but it could be months, years out. Such is biotech.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #183
  • Sep 15, 2016 11:15pm Sep 15, 2016 11:15pm
The one good thing I did is take off that 5 short put in profit before this meltdown. Never, ever sell a put to reduce cost basis in a speculative biotech you've got on (he says to himself). Were I not to have taken that off, I would have been put stock at $5, which would have amplified my losses here ... .

Tomorrow, I'll look to take off the 9 short call at or near worthless (.05 db or less). I can't imagine it'll be worth squat at open, and it's entirely possible it'll be "no bid." If it's "no bid," I'll probably have to ride it to expiration and let it expire worthless.

If I can take the 9-'er off for a nickel, I'll proceed to immediately look at whether I can sell an Oct 21st 5 short call for a .25 credit or more (an unlikely scenario, but who knows, since this thing is likely to still have uber high IV), since that's right around my cost basis. Otherwise, I'll look to sell a call even lower down the totem pole ... .

One thing I noticed in watching the debacle unfold AH is that there were buyers that drove price up from the low of 1.10 to 1.40. Little did they realize (or maybe they were smoking the old "hopium") is that while 19+ million shares traded hands, the short float as of 8/31 was over 60 million shares. Even assuming that the vast majority of those 19 million AH shares were sellers, there are a large number of folks that will crowd the exits to unload at NY open, so buying between 1.10 and 1.40 may have been foolish unless there are some major buyers waiting in the wings to suck this POS up at between 1.00 and 1.50/share when all "the sexy" (i.e., the RSV vaccine) is no longer part of NVAX's pipeline ... . Somehow, I think that's unlikely ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #184
  • Sep 16, 2016 6:52pm Sep 16, 2016 6:52pm
Covering: NVAX Oct 21st 9 short call for a .05 debit. Gonna let things settle a couple of days and ponder what I can do to reduce cost basis in my shares further, if anything ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #185
  • Sep 16, 2016 7:36pm Sep 16, 2016 7:36pm
Quoting srt
Watchlist for a buy: OPK (Opko) {image}
Might not get to ideal buy @ 8.50 area.

Could take a low-cost trade now with a call spread or wait for a pullback to get better price.

Buy Dec 9 call >>1.55
Sell Dec 11 call >>.55
Total Cost = $100
BE = 10
Current price = 10.21
Max. Profit = $100
ROI = 100% if price reaches 11 by Dec expiration.

***If options are thin @ expiration time, then just exercise the option & immediately sell the stock. No cost for transaction.
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  • #186
  • Sep 19, 2016 7:16pm Sep 19, 2016 7:16pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Might not get to ideal buy @ 8.50 area. Could take a low-cost trade now with a call spread or wait for a pullback to get better price. Buy Dec 9 call >>1.55 Sell Dec 11 call >>.55 Total Cost = $100 BE = 10 Current price = 10.21 Max. Profit = $100 ROI = 100% if price reaches 11 by Dec expiration. ***If options are thin @ expiration time, then just exercise the option & immediately sell the stock. No cost for transaction. {image}
Have also been watching BMY, but it's pricier ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #187
  • Sep 19, 2016 7:28pm Sep 19, 2016 7:28pm
Opening: Sold NVAX Oct 21st 1.5 call for a .22 ($22)/contract credit ... . Ain't much, but it beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. I'll just have to watch and see where it goes from here. Reducing cost basis in my shares may "take a while."

Covering: DDD Oct 21st 14 short put for a .30 ($30)/contract debit. In for $59, out for $30, net profit $27 and change/contract after fees/comms.

Opening: GDX Covered Call. Bought shares at 26.02, sold Oct 21st 26.5 calls, whole burrito: 24.86 debit ($2486) per 100 shares/contract. With ETF's, I generally look to take profit at 105% of what I put them on for (i.e., $2610 here, yielding a $120 per 100 shares/contract profit). I would note that this might fall into the category of a "terribly bad idea" in advance of FOMC, but I think the most likely outcome is no hike, which will result in some dollar weakness, which will cause US denominated commodities to move higher. Alternatively, being long gold here in advance of the November elections may be an "absolutely wunnerful idea" ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #188
  • Sep 20, 2016 7:50am Sep 20, 2016 7:50am
Opening: SRPT Jan 20th 8 long put. Shooting for a fill for .08. This is a lotto trade. R&D biotech with a single drug in trial with no demonstrated efficacy and previous FDA disapproval of similar drug by different company. Risking $8 to potentially make $795/contract (assuming it basically goes to "0"). It probably won't go to zero if the drug fails, but who knows ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #189
  • Sep 20, 2016 9:15am Sep 20, 2016 9:15am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Opening: SRPT Jan 20th 8 long put. Shooting for a fill for .08. This is a lotto trade. R&D biotech with a single drug in trial with no demonstrated efficacy and previous FDA disapproval of similar drug by different company. Risking $8 to potentially make $795/contract (assuming it basically goes to "0"). It probably won't go to zero if the drug fails, but who knows ... .
Filled for .08/contract db.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #190
  • Sep 20, 2016 9:20am Sep 20, 2016 9:20am
Covering: ZIOP covered call. In for a 4.82 debit. Taking profit here for a 5.20 credit. $31 per 100 shares/contract (6.4% ROC). Smaller than I'd like, but it's a winner winner chicken dinner ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #191
  • Sep 20, 2016 1:34pm Sep 20, 2016 1:34pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Opening: SRPT Jan 20th 8 long put. Shooting for a fill for .08. This is a lotto trade. R&D biotech with a single drug in trial with no demonstrated efficacy and previous FDA disapproval of similar drug by different company. Risking $8 to potentially make $795/contract (assuming it basically goes to "0"). It probably won't go to zero if the drug fails, but who knows ... .
Must have missed yesterday's news?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4007...go-much-higher
  • #192
  • Edited 6:23pm Sep 20, 2016 5:54pm | Edited 6:23pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Must have missed yesterday's news? http://seekingalpha.com/article/4007...go-much-higher
Nahhh. I'm a fine print reader:

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/adv...tor-2016-09-20

But, from the additional reading I did, the "confirmatory trials" may take another two years, so it is really unlikely that this will cave by Jan expiry. However, the fact that "no clinical benefit" has been established for this drug up until this point means that all Sarepta's being allowed to do with this "expedited approval" is continue to administer the therapy and collect data in an attempt to prove an efficacy case that they have not been able to do up until this point (granted, the last clinical they did was a total procedural train wreck -- no control, too small a study group, etc.). They won't be able to run the confirmatories indefinitely without either admitting that the therapy is not efficacious (a la NVAX) or eventually presenting an efficacy case to the FDA.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #193
  • Sep 20, 2016 8:13pm Sep 20, 2016 8:13pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Nahhh. I'm a fine print reader: {image} http://www.marketwatch.com/story/adv...tor-2016-09-20 But, from the additional reading I did, the "confirmatory trials" may take another two years, so it is really unlikely that this will cave by Jan expiry. However, the fact that "no clinical benefit" has been established for this drug up until this point means that all Sarepta's being allowed to do with this "expedited approval" is continue to...
A bit unclear between different articles but the market seems to be saying they've been given the license to print $$$.
  • #194
  • Sep 22, 2016 5:25pm Sep 22, 2016 5:25pm
Quoting srt
{quote} A bit unclear between different articles but the market seems to be saying they've been given the license to print $$$.
I think that's pretty much the case -- at least for a couple of years, so my guess price is going to hang way up here unless something traumatic happens, like a patient death or something of that nature ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #195
  • Sep 22, 2016 5:27pm Sep 22, 2016 5:27pm
Covering: GPRO Oct 28th 12.5 short put for .35/contract debit. $20 and change net profit per contract. Small winner that I preferred having out of the way going into a month of jury duty, which may mess with my "shag time."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #196
  • Sep 22, 2016 5:55pm Sep 22, 2016 5:55pm
Sometimes it's just about being in the right place at the right time:

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I had a covered call on this poo pile, and it hadn't done squat in terms of movement since I put it on. Then, voila, they enter into a deal to sell their mobile broadband biz for $50 mil ... . My short call strike's at 4 ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #197
  • Sep 23, 2016 9:07am Sep 23, 2016 9:07am
Nice one. Reports of twitter receiving expressions of interest from big names including Google and Salesforce.. Not in on the options unfortunately, would like to see how they moved!

Source: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/23/twitt...nd-google.html
  • #198
  • Sep 23, 2016 6:55pm Sep 23, 2016 6:55pm
Quoting uksnowman
Nice one. Reports of twitter receiving expressions of interest from big names including Google and Salesforce.. Not in on the options unfortunately, would like to see how they moved! Source: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/23/twitt...nd-google.html
Danke. Covering: MIFI covered call for a 3.24 credit at open, netting $22/contract profit (7.5% ROC). I didn't like the thing immediately after I put it on for some reason, so glad to see the back of it on this pop ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #199
  • Sep 23, 2016 7:00pm Sep 23, 2016 7:00pm
Quoting uksnowman
Nice one. Reports of twitter receiving expressions of interest from big names including Google and Salesforce.. Not in on the options unfortunately, would like to see how they moved! Source: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/23/twitt...nd-google.html
I was in that poo pile for a very long time in the first half of the year, waiting for someone to swoop in or at least "make noise" like they were "swooping in," got impatient, booked a small profit, and then moved on. Here's what happens when someone mentions that they "might" receive a formal bid "shortly":

Attached Image


(Sept 23rd Expiry; Call Side). Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #200
  • Sep 23, 2016 7:07pm Sep 23, 2016 7:07pm
Opening: NVAX Nov 2 short put for a .30 ($30)/contract credit. I have a covered call on in this bugger, and although selling puts isn't the "preferred method" for reducing cost basis in your shares, price's proximity to the 2 strike versus the 2.5 or 3 means that's where the premium's at. As always, I risk I will be put $2 shares, but I will roll out for duration if that comes to pass.

Opening: NE Nov 5 short put for a .30 ($30)/contract cred. As with the NVAX, I have a covered call on. The notion here is that it's put in a bottom, and that bottom's above $5 ... . As with the NVAX short put, I'll roll this sucker out for duration and credit if price breaks $5.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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