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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,721
  • Edited 12:44pm Sep 12, 2016 12:20pm | Edited 12:44pm
Quoting Jupiter
I delete because don't want stuff like that in public... Maybe Michi is wounded... Level 50 in front
nah, his count maybe off.
but i do not thing anyone will be picking top yet,
the bulls just returned after gaping and distributed for based triangle rally.

all eyes watching if this gap willl cover.
otherwise becomes breakaway gap.
we'll see


regards
  • #55,722
  • Edited 12:36am Sep 13, 2016 12:11am | Edited 12:36am
It's 6.36 in the morning, my time: Italy GMT+1
The start hour of my trading day...
I trade each day 6.00-18.00/19.00
I open my DAX chart...
and begin the day with a punch on my desk.
As always the WS afternoon skrewed all my plans.
I hate the pause for NY lunch... and the 2 phase/restart.
I was really tired yesterday evening... went out at the first rejection of level50. (Retailer's life...)
anyway...
We all together did a great job yesterday.
Guys I love Indeces...what can I say... they TREND!

Always with the spirit of a collective growth... and the "exploitation" of fti's experience...
I give you 2 other objects of meditation and conversation...
I spent years serching for the private courses of the "Greats"... the "Fathers Founders".
Have this one little bit... OMG

Wyckoff - Course on Charting - End of the Introduction

I, therefore, claim that:
You need never read anything on the financial page of your newspaper
except the table of stock prices and volumes.
You need pay no attention to the news, earnings, dividend rates or statements of corporations.
You need never study the financial or the business situation.
You need not understand railroad or industrial statistics, the money market, the crop situation, the bank statements, foreign trade
or the political situation.
You can absolutely ignore all the thousands of tips, rumors, reports and especially the so-called inside information that flood Wall Street.
You can discard all of these completely and finally.
UNLESS YOU DO THIS.. YOU WILL BE UNABLE TO GET THE BEST RESULTS FROM YOUR MARKET OPERATIONS.

BOING!!! (Claim... He wrote... Therefore I claim...!)
It's Mr Richard D. Wyckoff (aka Rollo Tape) ... not me.
(Remember that you had to pay big money to read these papers...)
(With the 5.000 bucks asked by Mr Gann you bought a good apartment, in those years...)
What do you feel and think reading such lines?

The second gift is a Refresher/Good Reminder of fti's first discussions here...
when he was opening the door... of REAL trading.
IMHO... start there. Or re-start from there. Or integrate that in your style.

My nickname is Jupiter... but it has absolutely nothing to do with astrology...
and Gann neither! (... or the correct English is "not even Gann"... ??? LOL)
(Jupiter was the name of the best horse I have ever had... a Portuguese Stallion in "Alta Escuela"! RIP!)

Good trading day. Trade always safe.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf W.D.Gann_Articles.pdf   123 KB | 935 downloads
  • #55,723
  • Sep 13, 2016 2:34am Sep 13, 2016 2:34am
Attached Image
  • #55,724
  • Sep 13, 2016 3:07am Sep 13, 2016 3:07am
Quoting Jupiter
{image}
Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,725
  • Edited Sep 14, 2016 2:07am Sep 13, 2016 3:21am | Edited Sep 14, 2016 2:07am
Quoting Jupiter
It's 6.36 in the morning, my time: Italy GMT+1 The start hour of my trading day... I trade each day 6.00-18.00/19.00 I open my DAX chart... and begin the day with a punch on my desk. As always the WS afternoon skrewed all my plans. I hate the pause for NY lunch... and the 2 phase/restart. I was really tired yesterday evening... went out at the first rejection of level50. (Retailer's life...) anyway... We all together did a great job yesterday. Guys I love Indeces...what can I say... they TREND! Always with the spirit of a collective...
nice intro.
Thank you for the gifts.
very inspiring. Makes me feel like rewearing my research hat.
so much more to research and now i have so much time and no pressure,

The indices are great, tier 2 to interbank FX.
But the components underlying companies.
I love how they hide dividends from holders.
How they M&A values for the benefit of a few.
How they hide reserves.
How they allow only buying.
But mostly how they manipulate the price premiums with possible earnings and intangible assets.
I love it when no one trades at NTA.
How based on the dreams they sell, any one could lose their shirt, just on premiums loss.
the impossible dream.
anyway things will improve, maybe.

Ahhh you had long legged lady, that runs very fast,
great huh, reminds me of Dad. He loves those girls. spent every weekend with them at the boxes.
When they turn the corner, wow does he gets excited.
but he lost his stables when his business turned.


Inserted Video

regards




she loved em too.
  • #55,726
  • Sep 13, 2016 3:26am Sep 13, 2016 3:26am
Quoting fti
{quote} the nemisis of OTC markets. The price infraction thingy is a sore that will never heal. So stops are just illusionary safety. You need brokers that you can trust, but you will never find them. Its just life, never will you find that which you truely need. But if they are being unfair to you,and refuse to be honourable. then you have choice of other shams. regards
Hello Fti and Colleagues,

As promised to let you know, an informal broker's reply has been received:
Quote
We've investigated your client issue and found that your clients order was not closed on take profit price due to low liquidity during high volatility market condition. The situation for when there is lack of volume in unique prices for max and min is very common. Understand that every trade has its own volume and if it is a unique price from a certain liquidity provider, it is absolutely possible that this volume will not be enough to execute the closure of all the orders in the waiting list. There are no STP/ECN brokers that execute orders with...

Although, the broker is going to reimburse the loss incurred as their loyalty policy. IMO, it would be just.
Of course, at my levels I have no professional expertise to judge the above quoted reply. It looks, there is a lot of things to challenge and be aware ahead. My Mindset and Market, and Capitalisation.

Best regards, Exnav

Edit: There are no STP/ECN brokers that execute orders with unlimited trading volume. It might be possible with dealing desk technology only.
In this case, the chart clearly show that the price has reached a certain level and price rolled back.
During the release of economic data with similar price movement is not always a sufficient condition for execution
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #55,727
  • Edited 4:09am Sep 13, 2016 3:44am | Edited 4:09am
Quoting fti
{quote} wave count wrong. wave 4 is failure push. wave 4 failed. seems in mid of wave 3 wave 4 is wrong because it took out your wave 1. when curve fitting must foloow elliot wave original research. .....
we can also end up thinking we are getting in on new impulse push but it turns out to be part of wider correction.....impulses feel like impulses and I think corrections feel a bit different (hard work).. (FTI reminded me of the wave 4 thingy before..... I studied Elliott before so please do not use it for set in stone predictions.....)

What gold put out there for us to pick up during Jupiter's trading. Nice music too. Lessons everywhere ... go over everything said why was it said at all..... it'll take me a while (later) to go over it all and understand what I can use....

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,728
  • Sep 13, 2016 3:56am Sep 13, 2016 3:56am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Fti and Colleagues, As promised to let you know, an informal broker's reply has been received: {quote} Although, the broker is going to reimburse the loss incurred as their loyalty policy. IMO, it would be just. Of course, at my levels I have no professional expertise to judge the above quoted reply. It looks, there is a lot of things to challenge and be aware ahead. My Mindset and Market, and Capitalisation. Best regards, Exnav Edit: There are no STP/ECN brokers that execute orders with unlimited trading volume. It might be possible...
noted.

"the broker is going to reimburse the loss incurred as their loyalty policy"
By honour, they making you good. Is .

regards
  • #55,729
  • Sep 13, 2016 4:24am Sep 13, 2016 4:24am
Quoting fti
{quote} scouts only all the way up to neck line. mass will be at neck line. attck begins at neck time window...
@All
Did you draw your neck line?

@fti

... and I think I saw you in the smoke and the clangor of the battle... maybe I'm wrong... not sure 100%... but...
Inserted Video
  • #55,730
  • Sep 13, 2016 4:26am Sep 13, 2016 4:26am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Did you draw your neck line?
no i don't draw lines.
can guesstimate them already.
drawing lines makes me married. limits my ability maneuver.
i can see them in the mind.amongst other things like volatility+++.


regards
  • #55,731
  • Sep 13, 2016 4:33am Sep 13, 2016 4:33am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} @fti ... and I think I saw you in the smoke and the clangor of the battle... maybe I'm wrong... not sure 100%... but... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhxrzU49ItQ
no, its not me.
my horsee is parked at the corner.
I still waiting see if i can wake up from the box.
I like to saddle up, but my body keeps saying . also mom.

regards
  • #55,732
  • Sep 13, 2016 4:34am Sep 13, 2016 4:34am
"no i don't draw lines.
can guesstimate them already."

I know that!!!!!
Next time I'll write down... @All (with the exclusion of fti, sir!)
  • #55,733
  • Edited 5:45am Sep 13, 2016 4:58am | Edited 5:45am
Quoting fti
{quote} The indices are great, tier 2 to interbank FX.
Sometimes they are so clear...
You could really see all the different "Strategies" the different traders use, all at work.
Every hurdle is perfectly readable... in line one after the other...
and you could litteraly see the "HFT Machine" patrol the Moving Averages...
What I hate is the Stop Hunting of WS... its costant "cleaning the tail" as yesterday is mortal!
But when you know that... sometimes all is nice... as this morning.
Maybe it was my trading with/for you (thanks Alex)... but I was in the Zone like Petrucci.
Hi-Lo... Move-PB.... whack/whack and whack again...
But yesterday afternoon I suffered, must admit.
When I have to fade the PB (as I call it) I'm not at my ease.
(Maybe the load... yesterday I pushed!)
(This morning... less)
At 10.50 my time I turned and followed the first bounce up... squared at 468 and now waiting.

I saw some buying during the decline... but who knows?
We just try to ride the bucking bronco.
I love this one... LOVE!

But... if they want to close the open gap again... I made a mistake.
12.44 Now Test of the Open Channel... rejection?
Bye
  • #55,734
  • Sep 13, 2016 5:46am Sep 13, 2016 5:46am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Sometimes they are so clear... You could really see all the different "Strategies" the different traders use, all at work. Every hurdle is perfectly readable... in line one after the other... and you could litteraly see the "HFT Machine" patrol the Moving Averages... What I hate is the Stop Hunting of WS... its costant "cleaning the tail" as yesterday is mortal! But when you know that... sometimes all is nice... as this morning. Maybe it was my trading with/for you (thanks Alex)... but I was in the Zone like Petrucci. Hi-Lo... Move-PB.......
Good, every tick is income. Best make a tick than loose it.

I try no analyse the policies any more.
Whats clear to me is, with this kinda wierd no rates policies and In the name of spuring growth.
Those that don't need goes to the borrowing counter. Those who needs , they cannot get to the window.
At least with premium loading they could attract some risk takers.
At zero rates, who wants take risk lend to higher risk profiles.

Anyway , what do i know, i am at best only trader.i just sit hope my stock options not die before i do.


regards
  • #55,735
  • Sep 13, 2016 7:02am Sep 13, 2016 7:02am
Quoting fti
{quote} Good, every tick is income. Best make a tick than loose it. I try no analyse the policies any more. Whats clear to me is, with this kinda wierd no rates policies and In the name of spuring growth. Those that don't need goes to the borrowing counter. Those who needs , they cannot get to the window. At least with premium loading they could attract some risk takers. At zero rates, who wants take risk lend to higher risk profiles. Anyway , what do i know, i am at best only trader.i just sit hope my stock options not die before i do. regards...
maybe they getting desperate, sit on the problem from last year till now.
  • #55,736
  • Edited 10:11am Sep 13, 2016 8:55am | Edited 10:11am
Are you following the WS opening bell?
Did you see how they play? Artists of killing...
Scaled out on fear as yesterday! Mistake again!
Watch out... could be "Hairy".
I'm reloading... always in control... beware of spikes... and deep PB.
Eyes on Hi e Lo.
Need to go below 430/25 at least
  • #55,737
  • Edited 1:36am Sep 14, 2016 1:20am | Edited 1:36am
We were there together, fti Sir and I, yesterday evening (my time) watching the last point down!
These last days we had a distinguished, gentlemanly, sophisticated WAR ROOM... here.
Great job.
As far as I am concerned, I think I have done what I wanted to do... for the thread discussion.
So, now, back to my cave. Trade safe.

@fti
Your Dad... Teresa, enchanting and charming...
I'm touched and honoured by your sharing.
  • #55,738
  • Sep 14, 2016 2:01am Sep 14, 2016 2:01am
Quoting Jupiter
We were there together, fti Sir and I, yesterday evening (my time) watching the last point down! These last days we had a distinguished, gentlemanly, sophisticated WAR ROOM... here. Great job. As far as I am concerned, I think I have done what I wanted to do... for the thread discussion. So, now, back to my cave. Trade safe. @fti Your Dad... Teresa, enchanting and charming... I'm touched and honoured by your sharing.
Thank You.

regards
  • #55,739
  • Sep 14, 2016 4:06am Sep 14, 2016 4:06am
Quoting fti
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl1ov97q3nE
Cannot listen nice music.... got company in office....

Those London boys had a laugh with those ducks..... Phil's crocodile turned up for the duck fest.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,740
  • Sep 14, 2016 4:11am Sep 14, 2016 4:11am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Cannot listen nice music.... got company in office.... Those London boys had a laugh with those ducks..... Phil's crocodile turned up for the duck fest. Alex

"Phil's crocodile"


regards
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