Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Monday August 28 at 11:15 ET

The confidence level on our short trade on CAD/JPY is medium low. So conservative traders are advised to exit their short positions at 105.30 - 105.35 taking about 40 pips profit. It would not be surprising if CAD/JPY rose again to 106.00 or higher, or it could continue down if USD/JPY nosedives.

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Previous trade signal:

TS#156A Sell CAD/JPY at 105.80 to 105.90 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Friday August 25 13:00 ET

At 9:45 ET CAD/JPY presented the perfect configuration for a short as a probable top of a long downtrend. The price then was 106.00. This was the second time it had risen to approximately this figure, thereby completing the Elliott Wave set. This completed another wave up that we had not accounted for in our previous short signal. There may be another short entry opportunity if it rises to about 105.80 to 105.90.

TS#156A Sell CAD/JPY at 105.80 to 105.90
Stop is 106.10
Target #1 is 103.50
Target #2 is 103.00
Risk is 40 to 50 pips
Reward is min. 170 to 220 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 3.4 to 1 or 5.5 to 1 , depending on the entry price and target met.

For research purposes only.

Hi Itme,

Good Work.

Could you also include annotated charts along with your analyses ?

Look forward to learning more about your strategy.

Thank you.

4x4.

any thoughts on either of these pairs?

thanks in advance for any input.

j9

Tuesday August 29 at 5:00 ET

As the trade signals below indicate, we attempted to predict the reversal point of the GBP/USD on Friday August 25, but were stopped out twice. GBP/USD descended to 1.8829 and then rose to the current price of 1.9020. We see it rising through a series of steps to 1.9040 and then on up to 1.9130.

Elliottician experts see the GBP/USD going either up or down, but they favor the downwards scenario. If it goes up, they put the target area between 1.9095 and 1.9700, with key resistance at 1.9144, which is close to our estimated final target.

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Previous trade signals:

Friday August 24 8:30 ET
TS# 151A Re-Enter Buy GBP/USD at 1.8876
Stop is 1.8855
Target is 1.9040
Risk is 24 pips
Reward is 161 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 6.7 to 1

For research purposes only.

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Friday August 24 8:30 ET

TS# 151 Buy GBP/USD at 1.8920
Stop is 1.8898
Target is 1.9040
Risk is 25 pips
Reward is 117 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.7 to 1

For research purposes only.

gbp-usd is giving me also hard time in these last 2 days...

i was pretty sure the generale move before FOMC would be SHORT ...but looks is not like this...

This is the typical example when I want to see what I think, and Im not seeing what is happening

Hello Itme,

Good Work.

Could you also include charts along with your analysis, So we see your work belong to the analysis?

Look forward to learning more about your strategy.

Thank you.

Tuesday August 29 11:45 ET

TS#158 Buy GBP/USD at 1.8900 or lower

Stop is 1.8865

Target is 1.9030

Risk is 38 pips

Reward is 127 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 3.3 to 1

For research purposes only.

Hello,
What is the reason to buy 1.8900 or lower. If market breaks 1.8900 then the lower side is 1.8860 near about. But your stop is 1.8868, That is very close or buy at the upper level. I think the buy more lower, or near to 1.8850 and stops below. Thanks

jeez.. take it easy, he is not here to educate you.. its just a journal of his trades.. he is not telling you to short it.. so no need of showing a thumps down or up..

Yes, you are absolutely correct. Buying GBP/USD at 1.8850 would be ideal, with a stop below 1.8820. The above trade is risky and has a mediocre upside. It is a low confidence trade, for reasons that you have detailed above. Also, it is not a good reward : risk ratio. It is merely an experiment for us, to test our Elliott Wave counting system and our other confidential model.

We keep testing different theories to see how they work. Like Thomas Edison. This is a research project. Thanks for your input. Very useful.

Finally the expected SHORT came....

Somebody can explain me which is the logic of buying and be so obstinate when the 'immaginary price' considered on a scale '1 to 10' was already 9 and we are in FOMC pre news ??
( I mean when price was around 1,9000)

What is so cleaver to buy when price is 9 to get maybe 1 or 2 point, instead of selling which was the most logic move ?
(Im not referrign to itme)

I dont understand such 'big traders'......
Maybe UK bank holiday is still hanging over...

YES INDEED
thanks itme
i have been following and watching your posts with interests. this time i was in rime ro catch up with your trade alert or what ever you call it.
thanks, again. it had turned out to be a drean run in no time for 75 pips for me
THANKS

Our Trade Signal #158 ( Buy GBP/USD at 1.8900 or lower) performed well, delivering about 100 pips of movement up to 1.9000 in just 2.3 hours, which represents about 43 pips per hour. The interim top of 1.9000 would have been a good interim exit point, waiting for the wave four correction. The original target of 1.9030 to 1.9040 is still in our sights.

Long and thoughful consideration and study of the movement has lead us to the view that the current CAD/JPY downtrend is most likely a corrective wave, not the beginning of a new downtrend. Therefore revise target to 104.94, which still gives a healthy profit of about 75 pips if this target is met.
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Previous trade signal:

TS#156A Sell CAD/JPY at 105.80 to 105.90 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Friday August 25 13:00 ET

At 9:45 ET CAD/JPY presented the perfect configuration for a short as a probable top of a long downtrend. The price then was 106.00. This was the second time it had risen to approximately this figure, thereby completing the Elliott Wave set. This completed another wave up that we had not accounted for in our previous short signal. There may be another short entry opportunity if it rises to about 105.80 to 105.90.

TS#156A Sell CAD/JPY at 105.80 to 105.90
Stop is 106.10
Target #1 is 103.50
Target #2 is 103.00
Risk is 40 to 50 pips
Reward is min. 170 to 220 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 3.4 to 1 or 5.5 to 1 , depending on the entry price and target met.

For research purposes only.

Hi Itme,
Your trade gbp/usd was perfect correctly . I got 120 pips for buying gbp/usd.
Good forecasted signal . How could you predict the long of gbp/usd when every body called for short ? A little secret revealed possible?.
Anyhow , a good trading call itme . Thanks again.

Hi FXNewbie,

You've been trading for some time now, so you are semi-experienced. Perhaps you have learnt quite a few things that you could share with others newer than yourself.

We would like to help everyone, but in this case it is quite impossible to explain. There is two years of full time study and research, and quite a complex theory which is still in the process of development. It is similar to theories that have been around for thousands of years about how everything in creation operates. We have found that there are some repeating patterns in the market, and we are trying to determine what exactly they are. The Elliott Wave is very real, for instance, but it is not simple to identify. We have our own theories of how the Elliott Wave really works. Plus we also have our own original theory based on observation of market patterns in the Forex market that is somewhat like Elliott Wave, but complements it. It deals with the perimeters of the movements. We suspect that our own theory is the fundamental dynamic of what the market is doing. The Elliott Wave theory describes how it goes about doing it. Together, if we can get both theories working and coordinated, we can hopefully eventually predict the endpoints of many moves quite precisely, plus the path between those endpoints.

But we couldn't and wouldn't explain anything about our two theories right now, except to say that they are based on careful and longstanding empirical observations and backtesting of hypotheses. This work is far from complete.

Tuesday August 29 22:30 ET

TS#159 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2295

Stop is 1.2314

Target is 1.2075

Risk is 23 pips

Reward is 216 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 9.4 to 1

For research purposes only.

Tuesday August 29 23:00 ET

EUR/JPY has been engaged in a very lengthy and grand corrective wave, or an upwards impulse wave, depending on one's interpretation of it, since we made the following comment on August 24th:

Quote:

EUR/JPY rose and fell, and will now rise again <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Friday August 24 11:00 ET

EUR/JPY rose as predicted to 149.45, then fell 74 pips this morning to 148.71. We expect it to do a corrective complex upwards wave now for the rest of the day before resuming its downwards trend, with a topside target of between 1.4915 and 149.40.

Unquote

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We now expect it to reverse at 150.40, which will be the beginning of a new downwards trend.

TS #160 Sell EUR/JPY at 150.40

Stop is 150.86

Target is 148.00

Risk is 50 pips

Reward is 236 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.7 to 1

For research purposes only.

Tuesday August 29 23:00 ET

TS #161 Sell GBP/JPY at 222.20

Stop is 222.61

Target is 220.10

Risk is 50 pips

Reward is 201 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

Tuesday August 30 00:15 ET

TS #162 Sell USD/JPY at 116.90

Stop is 117.17

Target is 115.90

Risk is 30 pips

Reward is 97 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 3.2 to 1

For research purposes only.