However USD JPY got triggered in Asia and moved it to BE
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
Fundamentals + sentiment + order levels rationale
- #201
- Sep 8, 2016 4:35am Sep 8, 2016 4:35am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
- #203
- Sep 8, 2016 7:11am Sep 8, 2016 7:11am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #204
- Edited 5:06am Sep 10, 2016 4:19am | Edited 5:06am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
We see some crazy dollar buying/stocks selling because of positioning before FOMC meeting. Strong reaction was seen because:
from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...n-real-to-rand
He is dove which started talking like a hawk and this is unusual. Fed doesn't like to surprise markets (unlike Swiss, Japan and Euro central banks). More and more people think they can hike in September or at least in this year.
So the theme for next week will be trailing big money in buying dollar against currencies with weak sentiment.
A gauge of the greenback jumped after Fed Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren warned that waiting too long to raise interest rates threatened to overheat the U.S. economy and could risk financial stability.
from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...n-real-to-rand
He is dove which started talking like a hawk and this is unusual. Fed doesn't like to surprise markets (unlike Swiss, Japan and Euro central banks). More and more people think they can hike in September or at least in this year.
So the theme for next week will be trailing big money in buying dollar against currencies with weak sentiment.
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #205
- Edited 3:27am Sep 12, 2016 1:03am | Edited 3:27am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Trade: Aussie short
- Best opportunity (according to sentiment?, risk events, sentiment shift, immediate catalyst for move, which currency)
Copper and commodity prices are falling (copper to 2 months low), strong dollar on hawkish Fed,
- Best price entry (is near support/resistance?, daily Fibo, daily TL, still room according to ADR?)
Near resistance on the hourly downtrend. TP near support.
- R:R 1:2 or more
1:2
Conviction: 7 /10
Trade management rules:
- 20-30 pip SL
- Move to breakeven when over 50% to the TP
3. Result
4. Reason for the result
5. Lesson from the result
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #206
- Sep 12, 2016 1:18am Sep 12, 2016 1:18am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Today's highlight is Fed's Brainard. Will this dove also sing as a hawk? If so, USD will fly and stocks will dump together with commodities.
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #207
- Sep 12, 2016 2:11am Sep 12, 2016 2:11am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Trade: USD JPY short 
Conviction: 7/10
Trade management rules:
- Best opportunity (according to sentiment?, risk events, sentiment shift, immediate catalyst for move, which currency)
Risk off sentiment on European stock markets in the open following the US 2% drop on Friday.
- Best price entry (is near support/resistance?, daily Fibo, daily TL, still room according to ADR?)
Bounce from round number 102.5 according to daily trend.
- R:R 1:2 or more
Conviction: 7/10
Trade management rules:
- 20-30 pip SL
- Move to breakeven when over 50% to the TP
3. Result
4. Reason for the result
5. Lesson from the result
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #208
- Sep 12, 2016 3:24am Sep 12, 2016 3:24am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Trade: Kiwi short 
Trade management rules:
- Best opportunity (according to sentiment?, risk events, sentiment shift, immediate catalyst for move, which currency)
Risk off sentiment, dollar strong on Fed dove speaking hawkish
- Best price entry (is near support/resistance?, daily Fibo, daily TL, still room according to ADR?)
Bounce from psych level + resistance in downtrend, still room in ADR, more than in Loonie, Aussie have strong barrier to go further down
- R:R 1:2 or more
1:2
Conviction: 7/10
Trade management rules:
- 20-30 pip SL
- Move to breakeven when over 50% to the TP
3. Result
4. Reason for the result
5. Lesson from the result
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #209
- Sep 12, 2016 3:26am Sep 12, 2016 3:26am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #210
- Edited 12:26pm Sep 12, 2016 10:28am | Edited 12:26pm
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Today was good example how the risk sentiment can change with US stock market open. Before it, there was risk off since Friday and then risk on after New York open.
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #211
- Sep 12, 2016 12:08pm Sep 12, 2016 12:08pm
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #212
- Sep 12, 2016 12:24pm Sep 12, 2016 12:24pm
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
I made some pips on EUR on Brainard. Text of the speech was released on 19:15 and it was quite dovish. However not much surprise, since she is a dove.
Only 18.6 pips on buy/sell stops before the release. Exit manually at resistance.
This is second type of trade when I trade the news and not only fading the S/R.
Only 18.6 pips on buy/sell stops before the release. Exit manually at resistance.
This is second type of trade when I trade the news and not only fading the S/R.
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #213
- Sep 13, 2016 12:09am Sep 13, 2016 12:09am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Trade: Aussie long 
Trade management rules:
- Best opportunity (according to sentiment?, risk events, sentiment shift, immediate catalyst for move, which currency)
Brainard yesterday did not speak hawkish, seems like Sept hike is off the table, very good data from China, which will support AUD, when EU will start
- Best price entry (is near support/resistance?, daily Fibo, daily TL, still room according to ADR?)
AUD USD just broke and pulled back to hourly S/R
- R:R 1:2 or more
1:2
Conviction: 7 /10
Trade management rules:
- 20-30 pip SL
- Move to breakeven when over 50% to the TP
3. Result
4. Reason for the result
5. Lesson from the result
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #214
- Sep 13, 2016 12:21am Sep 13, 2016 12:21am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Trade: Cable long 
Conviction: 7 /10
Trade management rules:
- Best opportunity (according to sentiment?, risk events, sentiment shift, immediate catalyst for move, which currency)
Good CPI expected, following good PMI data from last month.
- Best price entry (is near support/resistance?, daily Fibo, daily TL, still room according to ADR?)
Buy limit from last S/R
- R:R 1:2 or more
1:2
Conviction: 7 /10
Trade management rules:
- 20-30 pip SL
- Move to breakeven when over 50% to the TP
3. Result
4. Reason for the result
5. Lesson from the result
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #215
- Sep 13, 2016 1:18am Sep 13, 2016 1:18am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #216
- Sep 13, 2016 4:03am Sep 13, 2016 4:03am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Liquidity is at support/resistance
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #217
- Sep 13, 2016 4:11am Sep 13, 2016 4:11am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Trade: Cable long Best opportunity (according to sentiment?, risk events, sentiment shift, immediate catalyst for move, which currency) Good CPI expected, following good PMI data from last month. Best price entry (is near support/resistance?, daily Fibo, daily TL, still room according to ADR?) Buy limit from last S/R R:R 1:2 or more 1:2 {image} Conviction: 7 /10 Trade management rules: 20-30 pip SL Move to breakeven when over 50% to the TP 3. Result 4. Reason for the result 5. Lesson from the result
It seems there is a lot of buyers at this support. Anyway I am at BE already.
The same questions always: will the current bearish sentiment be stronger than buy orders at this level?
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #218
- Sep 13, 2016 6:14am Sep 13, 2016 6:14am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
AUD short
Trade: 
Conviction: 6/10
Trade management rules:
Trade:
- Best opportunity (according to sentiment?, risk events, sentiment shift, immediate catalyst for move, which currency)
Commodities are falling, USDX stronger today
- Best price entry (is near support/resistance?, daily Fibo, daily TL, still room according to ADR?)
From resistance, a lot of room in ADR
- R:R 1:2 or more
Conviction: 6/10
Trade management rules:
- 20-30 pip SL
- Move to breakeven when over 50% to the TP
3. Result
4. Reason for the result
5. Lesson from the result
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #219
- Sep 13, 2016 6:44am Sep 13, 2016 6:44am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
AUD short Trade: Best opportunity (according to sentiment?, risk events, sentiment shift, immediate catalyst for move, which currency) Commodities are falling, USDX stronger today Best price entry (is near support/resistance?, daily Fibo, daily TL, still room according to ADR?) From resistance, a lot of room in ADR R:R 1:2 or more {image} Conviction: 6/10 Trade management rules: 20-30 pip SL Move to breakeven when over 50% to the TP 3. Result 4. Reason for the result 5. Lesson from the result
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #220
- Sep 13, 2016 6:49am Sep 13, 2016 6:49am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
{quote} Manually exit with minimal loss, as cable went to 1.33. I entered later short on worse than expected CPI from UK from resistance. I hope it will break 1.329, since dollar is rebounding from support of USDX. {image} It seems there is a lot of buyers at this support. Anyway I am at BE already. {image} The same questions always: will the current bearish sentiment be stronger than buy orders at this level?
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)