How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value | Page 25 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

I can predict moves but then I forget how. Why? 20 replies

iCustom Value with another value ? 8 replies

How to get an MA value of first indicators value? 2 replies

Could RSI value show most update value on eur/usd chart? 6 replies

catch large moves! EMA(7) & multiple timeframes 20 replies

Attachments: How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value
Exit Attachments

How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value

  • #481
  • Sep 10, 2016 8:51pm Sep 10, 2016 8:51pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} millipede is who I am at the core but I have moved away from 'building' the millipede and stroking my ego with pip based accounting. My modelling revealed a far better efficient churning and management of 'legs' after seeing 1000s of pips disappear during floating equity drawdown or with breakeven trades.
Thanks for the hints.
  • #482
  • Sep 11, 2016 12:06am Sep 11, 2016 12:06am
Quoting VEEFX
Entries:Realized pnl curve is easily achievable. Smooth Equity curve (floating positions peak to trough) is something that is very hard (I would say it is almost impossible) for traders who trade multipairs portfolios exposed to market volatility which is never in control. Hope this helps bring some enlightenment. I prefer not to cover exits as that is how I make money
PNL curve? just read a little about it. What is your formula for this one?
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #483
  • Sep 11, 2016 12:58am Sep 11, 2016 12:58am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Sure Dennis. You are doing this full-time for a long time and your MM is evident of a solid foundation. For long term survivability, you admit a large capital requirement is a key requirement as your focus and objective is income and capital preservation and not growth. Completely acceptable way to approach this in a professional way. It also requires less discipline and a large dose of patience, especially when you are trying to recover during your equity retrace. You are also scaling in(?)/out which tells me you are not rigid with your...

Aww thanks, This is really Good Stuff. I will get Competent data for you and post. Thanks Appreciated. It will show what a mess I got myself into
  • #484
  • Sep 11, 2016 1:09am Sep 11, 2016 1:09am
Quoting v2vboni
{quote} PNL curve? just read a little about it. What is your formula for this one?

That will be a closely Guarded Secret and for good reason.............Good luck
  • #485
  • Edited 1:28am Sep 11, 2016 1:14am | Edited 1:28am
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} That will be a closely Guarded Secret and for good reason.............Good luck

hahaha! just trying...

My good friend Mr Wiki explained it here --> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PnL_Explained

PnL = Value today - Value from Prior Day

It may create a curve if the above formula applied for current ADR and yesterday's ADR or session highs & lows. These can be presented like moving average curve-- I just took it literally "Pnl Curve" ; )- Then attack the market Buying Lows and Selling Highs
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #486
  • Sep 11, 2016 1:32am Sep 11, 2016 1:32am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Floating equity PnL curve for sure. With my years of research, I have not been unable to find a decent technique to keep max equity drawdown under 10%. I conclude it is just not possible to maintain a well balanced multipair diversified portfolio in spot forex. Mind you, I am saying Account Equity Curve and not Account Balance Curve. Smooth Realized PnL curve is pretty straightforward to achieve but that is just back-office accounting. It's the Account Equity that matters the most and it is the one that truly matters when calculating used/free...

Ah yes. Here is the Answer! well it was not what they Thought is was... https://vimeo.com/20604405
  • #487
  • Sep 11, 2016 1:34am Sep 11, 2016 1:34am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Now what it is but HOW it is accomplished :nerd:
Now that is the right question .....Great Vid up. Risk/ooooops
  • #488
  • Sep 11, 2016 3:07am Sep 11, 2016 3:07am
Hi Dennis,

I would be interested to know your thoughts on if you are following the protocols within the pdf document to a T, what do you think the level of failure rate is on those particular trades? (if you have a stop loss)



Cheers
dabs
  • #489
  • Sep 11, 2016 6:51am Sep 11, 2016 6:51am
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} Ah yes. Here is the Answer! well it was not what they Thought is was... https://vimeo.com/20604405
Some information on the formula on cause on documentary of your link, if someone interessed ->
Inserted Video


JL
Started a blog: terraceman blogspot com
  • #490
  • Sep 11, 2016 8:51am Sep 11, 2016 8:51am
Quoting dabs99
Hi Dennis, I would be interested to know your thoughts on if you are following the protocols within the pdf document to a T, what do you think the level of failure rate is on those particular trades? (if you have a stop loss) Cheers dabs

I think it will be quite High the smaller your stop the greater the risk of failure. I dont use them. Level of Failure not sure what you mean. Currencies Trend Different.

One way to look at it is say whats the daily range average on GU for a year. Then you have a ADR Value. Those are your expected Volatility levels. Then Take a look at the maximum day with the Highest ADR reading over say 2 years. That would be on your rader as the extreme side.

Then within those levels or above them its up to you to decide in which place to set your Envelope. Then you can analyses if your levels Volatility Risk levels are being breached by the Market.

I trade within the lower extreme ( -500 pips) if the Market is attacking the levels then for me its clearly not for me to expand risk beyond that.

Trading with small stops requires a lot of screen time as you cant just leave a buy limit order as market will pick up both virtually the same time and the stop.
  • #491
  • Sep 11, 2016 8:56am Sep 11, 2016 8:56am
Read all pages so far.
Buying UJ and then buying EU is a synthetic EJ.
Am I mistaken?
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #492
  • Sep 11, 2016 10:29am Sep 11, 2016 10:29am
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} I think it will be quite High the smaller your stop the greater the risk of failure. I dont use them. Level of Failure not sure what you mean. Currencies Trend Different. One way to look at it is say whats the daily range average on GU for a year. Then you have a ADR Value. Those are your expected Volatility levels. Then Take a look at the maximum day with the Highest ADR reading over say 2 years. That would be on your rader as the extreme side. Then within those levels or above them its up to you to decide in which place to set your Envelope....

On the ACD entry you mention where to place the stop for the different type of entry. I was trying to see what the winning percentage of these trades is usually. This is to use as a guideline if I happen to be above average losing trades as I must be doing something wrong. cheers
  • #493
  • Sep 11, 2016 11:31am Sep 11, 2016 11:31am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TooSlow2.png Size: 38 KB


This is only my first day looking here.
Please bear with me.
It appears waiting for price to cross a pivot line before applying the highest/lowest open method may reduce stop outs.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #494
  • Sep 11, 2016 11:36am Sep 11, 2016 11:36am
Quoting dabs99
{quote} On the ACD entry you mention where to place the stop for the different type of entry. I was trying to see what the winning percentage of these trades is usually. This is to use as a guideline if I happen to be above average losing trades as I must be doing something wrong. cheers

Yes I know what you mean, I guess I mean I dont trade anything mechanically so no back testing with EA. For me, its purely a fluid approach I see confluence of different things and make the call as you have noticed.
  • #495
  • Sep 11, 2016 11:40am Sep 11, 2016 11:40am
Quoting TooSlow
{image} This is only my first day looking here. Please bear with me. It appears waiting for price to cross a pivot line before applying the highest/lowest open method may reduce stop outs.
Ok good but suggest you go over thread again from beginning. Its a little more to it.

.
  • #496
  • Sep 11, 2016 11:41am Sep 11, 2016 11:41am
Quoting TooSlow
Read all pages so far. Buying UJ and then buying EU is a synthetic EJ. Am I mistaken?

EU up UJ down
  • #497
  • Sep 11, 2016 11:43am Sep 11, 2016 11:43am
Types of Professional Traders

"Your ability to determine which market participants are influencing price will allow you to judge the conviction and behavior of price movement"

1 Investors
2 Position Traders
3 Swing Traders
4 Day Traders

Without over Complicating things we could ask ourselves which one are we from Above

So we have Charts with Daily, Weekly and monthly pivot points. We using those to set realistic targets.

So if your a Position Trader your targets are aimed at the Monthly Levels, Swing - Weekly Day - Daily .................

Thats why you see the market react at these levels as traders are influencing price.
  • #498
  • Sep 11, 2016 11:55am Sep 11, 2016 11:55am
Footprints
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_15 Mins_snapshot.png Size: 61 KB
  • #499
  • Sep 11, 2016 5:42pm Sep 11, 2016 5:42pm
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} Ok good but suggest you go over thread again from beginning. Its a little more to it. .
Perhaps, you did not understand the point I was making.
When I view what others do, it is with the intention of deciding if their methods offers something to add in my bag of tricks.
In this case, I can see the benefit of waiting for price to pass PP, S1 or R1 before applying my method.
That is all.
Not being negative about your method.
I do understand what you have presented so far.
May I suggest you spell out the steps in one post or document.
I need to understand it as a process so I can repeat it.

Attached Image
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #500
  • Sep 11, 2016 7:07pm Sep 11, 2016 7:07pm
Ozzie $ looks weak across the board here but a bounce back to the NY session Friday high which is also the cp today would be ok. The thing that clouds my thoughts are that this would then run contrary to the IB up then down, so ideally ozzie pops up slowly during the asia session which sets it up for the new London IB. If ozzie arrives prior to the London session at the Friday high/pp then unfortunately I have to make a decision lol.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.gtlM15.png Size: 41 KB
3 traders viewing now