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How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value

  • #421
  • Sep 8, 2016 1:31am Sep 8, 2016 1:31am
Hi Dennis,
Meaning that for what ever reasons there seems to be a bit of a lull in the thread, at the break neck speed it was moving I think it was to be expected, can I just ask a couple of basic if not silly questions, lets suppose that I never carry any open positions over the weekend, which means I look for new trades from Monday onwards, So as the guys have spotted the AUD-USD looks a player, now if I understand correct because it opened above Wkly pivot and I had spotted an entry point I could have entered long, now again if I understand correct meaning that I have based my entry on Wkly pivot my target would be R2 which as now easily been surpassed, so would the logic say bank your profit and move on expecting a retest. Yes I am aware that the Monthly pivot as not reach is R2 yet but just want to get the weekly trade sorted in my head first, before merging it with any other pivots, any comments would be welcome.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDSBH1.png Size: 99 KB
  • #422
  • Sep 8, 2016 3:51am Sep 8, 2016 3:51am
Hello Dennis,

Any thoughts on eurusd today, there was only 7 pips on the val, would stop go just below bc or lower down?

cheers
dabs
  • #423
  • Sep 8, 2016 4:20am Sep 8, 2016 4:20am
Quoting vwap
{quote} {image}

Now thats a pro charting package
  • #424
  • Sep 8, 2016 4:21am Sep 8, 2016 4:21am
Quoting vwap
{quote} {image} Inspired by Dennis! {quote} {image}​
So much easier to figure out - point of reference
  • #425
  • Sep 8, 2016 4:22am Sep 8, 2016 4:22am
Quoting FireFries
{quote} With a higher value relationship, we are looking for break of high, which happens to be around Previous day High and IB range High. Confluence and off to a Trend day. Hope I am right on this?
Totally right
  • #426
  • Sep 8, 2016 4:26am Sep 8, 2016 4:26am
Hi All,
- For today EUR hight news, u must Short EUR,
- I think AUD still strong so lets keep AUD Long , lets see and have a nice day
  • #427
  • Sep 8, 2016 4:29am Sep 8, 2016 4:29am
Quoting dcbsod
Hi All, For today EUR hight news, u must short EUR, lets see and have a nice day

Thats the plan, will cover long with short then release on a finger, below last handle if we Gap through , thats why hedge long with short, confirmation after fade
  • #428
  • Sep 8, 2016 4:31am Sep 8, 2016 4:31am
Pivot Width Forecasting
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_JPY_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 141 KB
  • #429
  • Sep 8, 2016 4:48am Sep 8, 2016 4:48am
Quoting Dennis1468
Pivot Width Forecasting {image}
Your showing the Aud-Jpy ? checked my Pivots for that pair and I am not even on the same pitch as you, oh dear !!!
  • #430
  • Sep 8, 2016 5:32am Sep 8, 2016 5:32am
Quoting dcbsod
Hi All, - For today EUR hight news, u must Short EUR
Coming back to my side
  • #431
  • Sep 8, 2016 5:42am Sep 8, 2016 5:42am
Quoting dcbsod
{quote} Coming back to my side

Today game is really some how, i don't understand
  • #432
  • Sep 8, 2016 7:56am Sep 8, 2016 7:56am
Ok lets see the USD according to EIA Crude Oil Stocks change

SHORT USD....
  • #433
  • Sep 8, 2016 8:15am Sep 8, 2016 8:15am
Quoting dcbsod
Ok lets see the USD according to EIA Crude Oil Stocks change SHORT USD....
This one seem good, lets see the next 3-4h
  • #434
  • Sep 8, 2016 10:13am Sep 8, 2016 10:13am
thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fa.png Size: 41 KB

Attached File(s)
File Type: rar PivotsDaily v3.rar   23 KB | 541 downloads
The Average Discount Everything
  • #435
  • Edited 11:08am Sep 8, 2016 10:49am | Edited 11:08am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Your showing the Aud-Jpy ? checked my Pivots for that pair and I am not even on the same pitch as you, oh dear !!!

Dave a simple tip Go to action forex pivot point then use your pp to calibrate against theres...................AJ live chart - Position trader covering on R1 monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_JPY_15 Mins_abc.png Size: 55 KB
  • #436
  • Edited 11:11am Sep 8, 2016 11:00am | Edited 11:11am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} probably you are already in the correlation trade or at least thinking about that eh added into i see.. mm trade . dont know whats your risk .but seems 104 is getting off. whats wrong with folding the wrong hand and reentering . eventually throwing risk on and the keys on the table could mean hard landing on that turn you aint expecting

I never close a loosing trade! as that is down to your perspective on time and fear, for me its a opportunity to make money, I was forced to double up on EU which took me into a small profit overall. On the other side As mentioned I bought UJ Weekly PP which went into loss then bought daily CPR now at 102.50 current price I am twice the size as the current price of the loss. AS PP UJ Trade is now + 21 pips and CPR trade is now + 90 pips up.

If I took a direct hedge i.e short on UJ and Long. That just locks you in. I only hedge direct hedge profits instead of a close.

You get used to in and out , only way you can be in danger is to over leverage, Losing trades are similar to winning ones. Dont fiddle to much just input a little when needed. As stated in this thread many times ! Let the market work for you even when your in a loosing trade. Give yourself time to be wrong but right later on. So I am right now. Dont over leverage.


Disappointing UJ did not reach monthly S1 that would have been a awsome place to buy but current move at 101 50 on the CPR is value
  • #437
  • Sep 8, 2016 11:19am Sep 8, 2016 11:19am
Quoting vwap
{quote} {image} Inspired by Dennis! {quote} {image}​
You got it thats all I do to have pips all over the charts,

Time dont matter..........Time is only a perspective. Price matters and so do targets. No one pays overnight commissions
anymore, back then time did matter.
  • #438
  • Sep 8, 2016 11:21am Sep 8, 2016 11:21am
Quoting dabs99
Hello Dennis, Any thoughts on eurusd today, there was only 7 pips on the val, would stop go just below bc or lower down? cheers dabs
Its done the fade back no harm in first entry long on the fade always a bounce for some pips. continuation or not its a good trade.
  • #439
  • Sep 8, 2016 11:27am Sep 8, 2016 11:27am
Quoting OAPDave
Hi Dennis, Meaning that for what ever reasons there seems to be a bit of a lull in the thread, at the break neck speed it was moving I think it was to be expected, can I just ask a couple of basic if not silly questions, lets suppose that I never carry any open positions over the weekend, which means I look for new trades from Monday onwards, So as the guys have spotted the AUD-USD looks a player, now if I understand correct because it opened above Wkly pivot and I had spotted an entry point I could have entered long, now again if I understand correct...

Its a good point about when to bank as its better to bank something then nothing.

Needs a mixed approach.

1 - Big pip Target. Small leverage on entry. Start loading on more positions if its well in profit
2 - Smaller pip target 20 to 50 slightly higher leverage and take half profit at anything above 10 pips

Most days market dont go any place. If you dont do number 2 you will see 20 pips up 15 pips down. Keep banking keep trading. Keep yourself tuned.
  • #440
  • Edited 12:04pm Sep 8, 2016 11:40am | Edited 12:04pm
Leverage

Having a good size account is a must to be full time in this business. How else can you have a good life unless you can keep stress and risk to a minimum and still make good money.

For me I am super stingy on leverage because has huge benefits.

Benefits:

No Stress
No loss
Time to be right even if your entry was wrong

I use: If your Account Leverage is set by Millions these are my leverage levels: ( 0.010 Per Every 10 k of Equity in Account. Which means basically I would loose 100 usd if UJ went from 102 to 101 per every 10 k of account size.

My Current use of leverage with all open trades now is 2% which is 1 % more then I normally use

If we assumed my account was 50 k then the above would be a 500 usd loss. Thats absolutely nothing on 50 k at 100 pips -

Lets assume I can make 400 pips a week (Actually most traders can do that) Then at 50 k account with minimal risk no heartbreaks you can turn 2 K profit a week.


Maximize size, minimize risk The concept of maximizing size and minimizing risk is a vital ingredient to any successful trading strategy
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