The Paradox System

Yes, you are right. I saw the H2 getting in the upswing and THOUGHT it would go through daily ROMAR, instead of acknowledging the resistance. It's hard for me, because I'm not even aware of all the analyzing and anticipating, but I will get there eventually. Need to take a breather for now, so the rest of the week I will spend on studying and creating multiple trading plans throughout the day without posting, and practice on seeing the moment and the moment only. Next week I will be back with my improved trading plans. See you all next week!

EURJPY
Date: 2016-09-07 2100 NY time
News for USD EUR JPY: HIGH 0815 local

Daily:
ROMAR: R DN
EMA: S UP
PSAR: S UP
Last MACD 0 crossing: UP - before EMA arrow
Last EMA Alert Arrow: DN
Last DB Attachment: 116.352 T
Last SAR Attachment: 113.841 B
Fibo up or down: UP
Notes: W crossed P, Parabolic is eliminated and market is below EMA support

1HR: Open Price: 114.764
ROMAR: R DN
EMA: R DN
PSAR: R DN
Last MACD 0 crossing: DN
Last EMA Alert Arrow: DN
Fibo up or down: UP
Notes: 4H dowmward

2HR:
ROMAR: R DN
EMA: R DN
PSAR: R DN
Last MACD 0 crossing: DN
Last EMA Alert Arrow: DN
Last DB Attachment: 113.841 B
Last SAR Attachment: 113.841 B
Fibo up or down: DN
Notes: Fibo flipped recently, 4H are downward, Gold divergence attached with SAR and DB

Notes for all 3 charts: System is in Consolidation, H1 and H2 are in sync and trending downward

Entry: “No trade is better than a lost trade" At the moment, H1 and H2 are in sync and moving down. I'll enter short at the next retrace.

Daily:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - down after macd up
Last DB Attachment - 116.352 - SAR 113.802
Fibo up or down - down (flipped)
Notes: ROMAR crossed purple and white, white and purple have made a cross.

2 HR:
OPEN PRICE - 114.053
ROMAR - resistance
EMA - resistance
PSAR - resistance

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - down before MACD
Last DB Attachment - DB: 113.002
Fibo up or down - up
Notes: all horsemen down, gold divergence attached

1 HR:
ROMAR - resistance
EMA - resistance
PSAR - resistance

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - down before MACD
Fibo up or down - up
Notes: all horsemen down

Entry:
Consolidation:
Long: the horsemen turn around on the 2 hour with a PSAR flip. P/W cross and opening above smooth / EMA
Short: I'm not entirely sure, on the candle opened below the PSAR and the PSAR didn't flip so theoretically it should continue in the uptrend. we also have the SAR attachment. I think I will enter short with a retracement into the horsemen on the 2H

I know I said I wasn't going to be back until next week, but after a long hard thought (thinking is something I seem to be good at ;-)) I remembered the example dove posted on post 5027 and how none of our plans actually look like it. He goes much more into detail as we did so far, so why not do exactly like that example and name everything you notice on the charts. If we all start to do this we can see in the plans of one another what we missed in our own plans and we can learn to spot everything there is to see together.

Let me begin and I hope you will study dove's example in post 5027 too and come to the same conclusion as me that so far we weren't very effective in planning. By practicing with a very precise plan we should be far more able to beat the market. I don't say that my plan below is a good one, but the setup at least is. I can say I've worked a lot harder on this plan than the previous ones I made and hopefully I will be able to take a better look at the moment. Anyhow, being more detailed in my trading plan will be a step in the right direction.

Date: 07-09-2016 - 6.00 GMT

Daily:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down after MACD up
Last DB Attachment - DB top at 116.352; SAR bottom at 113.802
Fibo up or down - Up
Notes: Daily is in consolidation: Purple/White have crossed down and open candle is below PSAR, which is support. We have a bottom SAR attachment below PSAR
which could indicate getting back up or indicating a new trend down.

2 HR:
OPEN PRICE - 114.053
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down before MACD down
Last DB Attachment - Bottom 113.802 for continuance of downtrend
Fibo up or down - Up
Notes: 4 horsemen in downtrend with open candle at Purple. We are at the bottom of the chart with Fibo green.

1 HR:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down before MACD down
Last DB Attachment - n/a
Fibo up or down - Up
Notes: 4 horsemen are down with Purple at White and open candle at Smooth. We are at the bottom of the chart with Fibo green.

Final Notes for all three charts: We have all 3 ROMAR's as resistance. H1 and H2 are in sync with 4 horsemen running down. Though there are some conflicting
indicators on H1 and H2 with the 4 horsemen downtrend:
- Fibo green on H1 and H2
- Negative OSMA bars on H1 going up and close to 0
- Purple at White for possible crossing
Also Daily chart is in consolidation with EMA and PSAR holding support, while ROMAR is resistance and White already crossed Purple down. Open candle below PSAR
support.

Entry:
Consolidation:
Long: With H1 market consolidating and Daily market below PSAR support a long entry could be a possibility, but for that H1 market must first turn around with
PSAR flip.
Short: With H1 market being inside 4 horsemen for a beginning consolidation I would wait for an open candle below Purple to go short if H2 horsemen are still in downtrend.

Notes for readjustments:
8.00 GMT - On H1 MACD arrow up appeared, open candle above Smooth and Purple close to Smooth for crossing. On H2 market opened inside horsemen below Smooth.
10.00 GMT - On previous H1 candle Green arrow appeared, but disappeared afterwards. White/Smooth are crossing up. On H2 White is sliding on top of Purple, no crossing yet, so still in downtrend.
12.00 GMT - On H1 Green arrow was confirmed on previous candle. Purple/White/Smooth sliding under EMA and PSAR hasn't flipped, so both still resistance. On H2 White slightly crossed Purple and open candle above Smooth.
13.00 GMT - H1 EMA and PSAR resistance is holding at the moment and red arrow appeared and confirmed at open of current candle, which is below Purple/White/Smooth slider. Current H2 candle made a down movement to Smooth and Purple/White are now sliding. For a moment I wanted to sell at this open H1 candle, but I rather open a position on a new H2 candle.
14.00 GMT - H1 in a tight slider with horsemen still under EMA resistance, but PSAR flipped on current candle to support. On H2 candle opened above Smooth and Smooth is heading for Purple. So far 12 hours of going nowhere.
16.00 GMT - H1 is still in a very tight slider. On H2 Smooth has crossed Purple and the MACD up arrow appeared. I also see that Green arrow has appeared on current candle, so not yet confirmed.
18.00 GMT - Before this H2 candle opened I was considering to go long when Green arrow was confirmed. I didn't because of the following: with the way the market is ranging it will be a long shot to get 40 pips and a 20/20 trade is a risk, because a retrace into H2 support would take me out in no time and with the pace the market is ranging a slider on H2 for the continuance of the downtrend is a good possibility. Also market bumps from below against PSAR on Daily chart. Although it's support, now that we're below it, it could act as resistance.

News:
No high impact news today.

very nice, I'll also refer to the post for my plan tomorrow

I'm with you on this. I believe the more detailed we make our plans, the better our entries. I'll start tomorrow

SAR attachment,

after yesterday I find it difficult to judge now if this is an indication of a new trend or to short back into the DB. in the moment I would think go short because of the ROMAR/EMA, PSAR still resistance. although we also do have purple / white / smooth cross and the green EMA arrow followed by the MACD. besides the 1 hour trend is also down with the horsemen up. the daily PSAR is still support, but also eliminated by the P/W cross

any opinions?

EURJPY
Date: 2016-09-08 2100 NY time
News for USD EUR JPY: HIGH 1845 local

Daily:
ROMAR: R DN
EMA: S UP
PSAR: S UP
Last MACD 0 crossing: UP - before EMA arrow and near 0
Last EMA Alert Arrow: DN
Last DB Attachment: 116.352 T
Last SAR Attachment: 113.802 B
Fibo up or down: UP
Notes: W,S crossed P, Parabolic is eliminated and market is below Parabolic and EMA support, ROMAR is about 100 pips above market.

1HR: Open Price: 114.289
ROMAR: R DN
EMA: S UP
PSAR: S UP
Last MACD 0 crossing: UP before EMA arrow
Last EMA Alert Arrow: UP
Fibo up or down: UP
Notes: W,S crossed P for a downward swing, ROMAR resistance is about 70 pips above market

2HR:
ROMAR: R DN
EMA: S UP
PSAR: S UP
Last MACD 0 crossing: UP
Last EMA Alert Arrow: UP
Last DB Attachment: 114.536 T
Last SAR Attachment: 114.536 T
Fibo up or down: UP
Notes: Fibo flipped recently, 4H are upward, DB and SAR have Magenta outer box connection, ROAMR resistance is about 30 pips above market.

Notes for all 3 charts: System is in Consolidation, H1 and H2 are not in sync and ROMAR's are resistance

Entry: At the moment, Daily SAR is attached alone at the bottom of a bar and PSAR didn't flip indicating long bias. H2 DB is indicating the beginning of an uptrend although without the ROMAR. If all else stays the same and H1 and H2 come into sync, I'll be patient (for a change) and enter long at the bottom of a mini-swing. I will post a new trade plan if readjustments are needed.

Elflaco;

18.00 GMT - Before this H2 candle opened I was considering to go long when Green arrow was confirmed. I didn't because of the following: with the way the market is ranging it will be a long shot to get 40 pips and a 20/20 trade is a risk, because a retrace into H2 support would take me out in no time and with the pace the market is ranging a slider on H2 for the continuance of the downtrend is a good possibility. Also market bumps from below against PSAR on Daily chart. Although it's support, now that we're below it, it could act as resistance.

"Also market bumps from below against PSAR on Daily chart. Although it's support, now that we're below it, it could act as resistance." This is interesting but I don't remember that in the rules. It seems to be doing that today also. Maybe coincident?

Well, I haven't read the situation about PSAR, but I have read it about EMA and ROMAR. Like in post 4119, where snfx says he's looking for a TP above EMA for a short, although EMA is resistance, because it could act as support. I saw Shinny considering the same thing with a Daily EMA with market above EMA resistance in post 4006. He took entry just above EMA resistance, because he expected a reaction from it.

So I remembered those posts and thought the same thing could be happening with PSAR support. But I must say the biggest reason in holding me back to enter a trade was the tight ranging the pair was in all day.

You sure come up with post numbers quickly - do you have them indexed or something?

Haha no, I just remember how they worded their explanation, so it's easy to look up through FF.

Date: 08-09-2016 - 4.00 GMT

Daily:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Down - on current candle
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down before MACD arrow
Last DB Attachment - DB top at 116.352; SAR bottom at 113.802
Fibo up or down - Up
Notes: Daily is in consolidation: The Daily is turning around for getting into the downtrend with Purple crossing Smooth. Open candle was below PSAR (eliminated) support and didn't get above it so far. The MACD arrow appeared on the current candle. Still have the bottom SAR attachment that was made yesterday for possible indication of a new trend.

2 HR:
OPEN PRICE - 114.369
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down - on current candle so not yet set in stone
Last DB Attachment - 114.536 top for continuance of uptrend
Fibo up or down - Up
Notes: Market is tight with Purple/White sliding over EMA and Smooth. Red EMA arrow appeared on current candle. The high of the day with 114.536 had magenta divergence attached to it and was also a hit on Daily PSAR (eliminated) support. 23.6 Fibo line seems to be doing a good job holding the market as well.

1 HR:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down - on current candle so not yet set in stone
Fibo up or down - Up
Notes: H1 is in tight consolidation with a almost flat slider of Purple/White/Smooth just above EMA. The positive OSMA bars are decreasing and close to 0 and red EMA arrow just appeared. So signs are showing the next move will be down, but both not set in stone yet.

Final Notes for all three charts: It seems like all charts are setting up for the downtrend, with H1 and H2 EMA arrows (not set in stone as of yet) and Daily that is turning around. On H1 OSMA bars are getting close to 0 and on Daily the MACD arrow has already appeared with EMA arrow already appeared 3 days ago. So signs are showing the next move will be down, but have to be confirmed before going any further. Also all 3 ROMARs are resistance, but we do have conflicting indicators:
- All Fibo's are up
- All EMA's are support. H1 and H2 EMA are in slider with market now going below slider and appearing EMA arrows, so thing could turn around quickly
- All PSAR's are support, but on H1 and H2 could flip soon with Purple close to EMA. On Daily PSAR is eliminated but could hold the market down as it has done yesterday and today so far

Entry:
Consolidation:
Long:
Short: I will enter short when PSAR on H2 flips to resistance with H1 horsemen in downtrend.

Notes for readjustments:
5.30 GMT - I see I missed the fact that PSAR is at considerable distance of EMA on H2, so a flip might just take a while.
6.00 GMT - In the meantime red arrow on H1 was confirmed, but on previous candle green arrow appeared and is now confirmed with new candle. On H2 red arrow disappeared. Open H2 candle is below Purple/White slider, so tight consolidation is still ongoing and at this point nothing is indicating an entry for me, not long, not short. With down indicators not set in stone could be more likely with H1 and H2 sliders above EMA and PSAR.
8.00 GMT - When creating my plan everything looked like it would go for short, but nothing was confirmed at the time. So red EMA arrows eventually were not confirmed or changed to green again, so I now have taking a long position (20/20), because H1 and H2 indicators are setup for long looking at this moment. I chose 20/20 because there isn't much space towards H2 ROMAR and the target is just above H1 ROMAR. Distance between EMA and PSAR on H2 is still large, so the uptrend is in. Also the 20 SL is behind the wall of horsemen/EMA support, so should keep me safe. Haven't forgotten about PSAR on Daily, but I want to see is this upswing is strong enough.
10.30 GMT - Got 20 pip profit.

High impact news:
11.45 GMT - EUR: Deposit Facility Rate
11.45 GMT - EUR: Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
12.30 GMT - EUR: ECB President Draghi Speaks
15.00 GMT - USD: Crude Oil Inventories

This is a revised entry for my trade plan. The first one didn't have my short entry. So here it is:

Entry: At the moment, Daily SAR is attached alone at the bottom of a bar and PSAR didn't flip indicating long bias. H2 DB is indicating the beginning of an uptrend although without the ROMAR. If all else stays the same and H1 and H2 come into sync, I'll be patient (for a change) and enter long at the bottom of a mini-swing. Short entry: Wait for H1 PSAR flip, EMA crossing Purple and MACD down arrow. On H2 we need PSAR flip and EMA crossing Purple. Enter short at first resistance.

Daily:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Down - up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down after MACD
Last DB Attachment - DB top at 116.352; SAR bottom at 113.802
Fibo up or down - up
Notes: Daily is in consolidation: purple has crossed down white and smooth. the SAR attachment is holding down at 113.802

2 HR:
OPEN PRICE - 114.426
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - up before MACD
Last DB Attachment - 114.536 top
Fibo up or down - Up
Notes: purple / white / smooth and EMA are very tight together. the magenta attached to show the swing high. the bollinger band is just above the ROMAR showing we're near the top of the trading zone.

1 HR:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - up
Fibo up or down - Up
Notes: also a tight consolidation of EMA/ purple / smooth / white.

Final Notes for all three charts: all TF's are down however the horsemen on the 1 and 2 hour are up nearing ROMAR. besides that we do also have all the fibo's which are up and the EMA / MACD arrows which are also still up. so we are in a strict consolidation waiting for a breakout.

Entry:
Consolidation:
Long: technically a long could be taken now for possibly 20 pips but I don't want to risk it
Short: enter short when PSAR on H2 flips to resistance with H1 horsemen in downtrend.

High impact news:
11.45 GMT - EUR: Deposit Facility Rate
11.45 GMT - EUR: Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
12.30 GMT - EUR: ECB President Draghi Speaks

Entered long at H2 open above Purple/White. H1 Purple, White and Smooth separated also.

same thing. going for 20 pips, so my target is just a bit above the 1H ROMAR

edit: profit taken

Got my 20 pips and happy with it. Especially because when I created my plan this morning things looked like they would develop for a short with H1 and H2 EMA arrows down, H1 OSMA bars close to 0 and Daily MACD arrow down. All of them weren't set in stone, disappeared and on 8.00 GMT candle it looked good for a long. So there was definitely a thin line between long and short.

Closed my trade because H2 ROMAR as resistance stopped it. +27 pips

nice trade.

the difficulty I find is to know in this case where to take profit. I decided to take it close at the 1H ROMAR. how can we know, if at all where it will stop. as one time it will stop at the 1 hour romar another time it will blow through. it's definitely safest not to put your target past the 2 hour romar but how much "weight" do we give to the confluence factors is a difficult matter. we do know it to a certain extent in the sense that ROMAR is the heaviest support / resistance, followed by EMA and the PSAR etc but to have working everything together is not an easy thing!