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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,521
  • Sep 6, 2016 1:34pm Sep 6, 2016 1:34pm
ISM disappoint, USD bull retreat for now.
what a day, long one. usd was tight since nfp
futures pricing, 2-y, 10-y, dxy all dive.. index were happy.. just wondering how overheat can they get. madness.

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


The world need man of talent to lead.. not fools and clowns!

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,522
  • Edited 2:31pm Sep 6, 2016 1:51pm | Edited 2:31pm
like i was telling jupiter.
i never know, if i am right or wrong on the trades until its squared.
i just do my job as per my training.
my job is to try not lose pips, and staying within safe line limits, with complete discipline.
The discipline keeps me alive.

What the world needs?
Is God.
Man is not trustworthy.
The mind, its too deceived, sometimes evil.

I try very very hard daily, not to end up on someones dinner platter mostly.

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage...A6&version=KJV

regards
  • #55,523
  • Sep 6, 2016 1:53pm Sep 6, 2016 1:53pm
Quoting fti
like i was telling jupiter. i never know, if i am right or wrong on the trades until its squared. i just do my job as per my training. my job is to try not lose pips, and staying within safe line limits, with complete discipline. The discipline keeps me alive. What the world needs? Is God. Man is not trustworthy. The mind, its too deceived, sometimes evil. regards
Agree

Just wondering, have you ever read this book?
http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3...s_Many_Masters

Rgds

oops, 0000000 1010 000 101111 ... moving again
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,524
  • Sep 6, 2016 2:04pm Sep 6, 2016 2:04pm
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Agree Just wondering, have you ever read this book? http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3...s_Many_Masters Rgds oops, 0000000 1010 000 101111 ... moving again
This is a great book, imho.
  • #55,525
  • Sep 6, 2016 2:13pm Sep 6, 2016 2:13pm
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Agree Just wondering, have you ever read this book? http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3...s_Many_Masters Rgds oops, 0000000 1010 000 101111 ... moving again
No , not yet.

regards
  • #55,526
  • Sep 6, 2016 3:25pm Sep 6, 2016 3:25pm
Quoting Jupiter
From my archive. A reminder... Don't fight the tape. {image}

An explanation for why the home office didn't notice what was going on is offered by Nick at about 5 min in (video below).
Short story; the IT guy didn't recognize the "five eights account" (the trash can) and threw out the data.

The question in my mind is how could the bank give Nick an additional one billion to trade with if it only took 1.3 billion to
break the bank?

" In January 1995 SIMEX expressed concern to the bank about Leesons dealings, but to no avail as the bank still wired him $1 billon to continue his trading."
https://knowledgecitizens.wordpress....1/hello-world/


Inserted Video
If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #55,527
  • Sep 6, 2016 11:31pm Sep 6, 2016 11:31pm
Quoting fti
... i never know, if i am right or wrong on the trades until its squared... my job is to try not lose pips, and staying within safe line limits, with complete discipline.

Great spirit.
Great trader.
Great teacher.
Thank you fti, Sir.
It's an honour to be here.
  • #55,528
  • Edited 11:53pm Sep 6, 2016 11:37pm | Edited 11:53pm
And to all the readers of this thread...
1) A little piece of music to begin your trading day with...
2) Something to read (or to read again... I read it once a month!)

PS. @alex... What do I think?
To make a long story short...
- all you need is inside this thread.
- the bases of what I do are inside the Pring's document.
(Back to the future... Gann was the greatest Swing Trader of all, and just a few know it!)
I wrote too much. Back to my cave.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mp3 Frank Zappa - What's the Ugliest Part of Your Body (CUT).mp3   500 KB | 402 downloads
File Type: pdf M. Pring - Peaks and Troughs.pdf   181 KB | 707 downloads
  • #55,529
  • Sep 6, 2016 11:52pm Sep 6, 2016 11:52pm
Quoting Jairo
{quote} This is a great book, imho.
it is isnt it, helped me understand myself lot better. Read it twice.

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,530
  • Sep 6, 2016 11:59pm Sep 6, 2016 11:59pm
Quoting fti
{quote} No , not yet. regards
Ok. let me know if keen.

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,531
  • Sep 7, 2016 2:16am Sep 7, 2016 2:16am
Quoting fti
{quote} i didn't know. sold because ...........
sold so that i could bid catch some ducks.trying recover some of the earlier loss.

....when i saw how they was all ON him.

sorry.....FTI gone to the beach now......
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,532
  • Edited 3:44am Sep 7, 2016 3:31am | Edited 3:44am
Quoting mclon
{quote} An explanation for why the home office didn't notice what was going on is offered by Nick at about 5 min in (video below). Short story; the IT guy didn't recognize the "five eights account" (the trash can) and threw out the data. The question in my mind is how could the bank give Nick an additional one billion to trade with if it only took 1.3 billion to break the bank? " In January 1995 SIMEX expressed concern to the bank about Leesons dealings, but to no avail as the bank still wired him $1 billon to continue his trading." https://knowledgecitizens.wordpress....1/hello-world/...
there you have it.
key word is IT.

One must understand.
Software is made by humans.
There are hidden soft switches every where, not withstanding back doors and secret passages.
AND bugs, a bug here a bug there, solve a bug, create another 100 solving it.

Me, i run things in 1 page.(maybe the reason why i like ff, important stuff all in 1 place.)
anything amist, and i want to know which module did it and out it goes.
The computer is just a machine.
If the chap behind its development is not honourable.
Then it cannot be trusted to bring it home.

If fact , shouldn't ask me.
I don't allow any machine manage my anything. esp where money is concerned.
I only work with humans,even though they not trustworthy.
They naughty and they hangs.
You have a choice, or you can kick the computer.
I found that kicking the computer , iy doesn't work, only i feel the pain.
Its up to you.


regards
  • #55,533
  • Sep 7, 2016 3:32am Sep 7, 2016 3:32am
Quoting Jupiter
And to all the readers of this thread... 1) A little piece of music to begin your trading day with... 2) Something to read (or to read again... I read it once a month!) PS. @alex... What do I think? To make a long story short... - all you need is inside this thread. - the bases of what I do are inside the Pring's document. (Back to the future... Gann was the greatest Swing Trader of all, and just a few know it!) I wrote too much. Back to my cave. {file} {image}
Thanks - yeh I think we can all agree that we try to be with trend. But there is so much more to it........trend can be strong (small bouncy retrace) or weak deep very strong reaction so are big boys playing there or weak trend legs - what is higher time frame doin? Is news event around? What if trend looked good but then I am trapped the other way by strong move against me? This takes a long time to figure best way to cope in market I think. Rigidity is never good so we we need to be more fluid that just trend is the trend I think and try to pick up market clues. Mostly as a skill we need lots of doin and lots of learnin (for ever learning).

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,534
  • Sep 7, 2016 3:36am Sep 7, 2016 3:36am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} sold so that i could bid catch some ducks.trying recover some of the earlier loss. ....when i saw how they was all ON him. sorry.....FTI gone to the beach now......


regards
  • #55,535
  • Sep 7, 2016 3:42am Sep 7, 2016 3:42am
Quoting fti
{quote} there you have it. key word is IT. ..........
Havin worked in IT many years, can say most businesses manage their infrastructure pretty badly - managers treat IT as some sort of vague thingy that happens over there by peeps that I do not understand and do not ask/question or even worse tell "IT" what to do when the manager has no real depth of knowledge and wants sth on their CVs or just wants to do what they are used to. They mostly forget the true value of data and do not look after it. Working in it is a hard job and staying true to profession is very hard at times. But it can also be magical - my man worked on stuff that identifies tumours now. Not an easy life there.

We use god's computer here on FTI thread......

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,536
  • Edited 4:06am Sep 7, 2016 3:48am | Edited 4:06am
@alex
Yes... absolutely. There is more. But Laws of price behaviour don't change.
I don't want to disturb the conversation here.
I'm a fanatic of Peaks and Troughs analysis in the "Old Style/Old School"...
I don't know if you notice... but I have launched you a message to open a DAX chart on 5m a few minutes ago.
Have a look now. And try a "Tape Read".
A big battle between a BIG M (in open market) and a Big W ( as Bull response)...
Look at the pulse between Hi and Lo... and the failure and the change of front.
I just made my day with both the parties...
And now the Bulls made a new high by just one point! Defeating the M... And I'm waiting for the development.
Oh, I miss the handhold lessons of fti... very very much.

In your post 55224 you can see the same pattern... a Big M Defeated. It' a classic Pattern! Nothing new in WS!
Anything could happen... but when happens, it follows the rules of Price Behaviour: Tide, Wave and Ripples.
Support and Resistance. Half signal and signal completed. Ducks Roasted.
  • #55,537
  • Sep 7, 2016 3:56am Sep 7, 2016 3:56am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Havin worked in IT many years, can say most businesses manage their infrastructure pretty badly - managers treat IT as some sort of vague thingy that happens over there by peeps that I do not understand and do not ask/question or even worse tell "IT" what to do when the manager has no real depth of knowledge and wants sth on their CVs or just wants to do what they are used to. They mostly forget the true value of data and do not look after it. Working in it is a hard job and staying true to profession is very hard at times. But it can also...
my god's computer, it's become old.
still looking for way rejuvinate it before it rust away.
problem is I no have the full manual and flow chart.

Mom also no have.
Mom only have maintainance manual.

And they telling me, 1618 bit machines, no have spare parts
the audio have high pitch interference.
the graphic interface is very blur already.
also the power switch, its intermitten on and off.


regards
  • #55,538
  • Edited 4:40am Sep 7, 2016 4:05am | Edited 4:40am
Quoting Jupiter
@alex Yes... absolutely. There is more. But Laws of price behaviour don't change. I don't want to disturb the conversation here. I'm a fanatic of Peaks and Troughs analysis in the "Old Style/Old School"... I don't know if you notice... but I have launched you a message to open a DAX chart on 5m a few minutes ago. Have a look now. And try a "Tape Read". A big battle between a BIG M (in open market) and a Big W ( as Bull response)... Look at the pulse between Hi and Lo... and the failure and the change of front. I just made my day with both the parties......
Just had a look........nice one......... sure get what you are sayin.....think we are in agreement. Will have a look at pattern again tho - I think of these big Ms and big Ws as traps sometimes. Still movin your way....

Your big W formed nicely (price + time) so form is important.

You are trading half signal ... if looks good (I would have)?
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,539
  • Edited 4:41am Sep 7, 2016 4:16am | Edited 4:41am
fti, Sir, be gentle with me... LOL... not too harsh.
I'm only an humble student of the market.
Nothing to teach and nothing to show off.
Please.

Pattern can mutate, transform, in costant evolution.
Flexibility is to follow: listen and accept.
Facts and not opinions. Rules&Discipline.
But the waves always leave signs on the sand...
(I wrote a post to Vic 6 years ago about this issue...)

DAX - failure in breaking yesterday low and following the rising valleys... HL HL
Move- PB - Move - PB
If previous Valley is taken... have your choice!
  • #55,540
  • Edited 4:49am Sep 7, 2016 4:35am | Edited 4:49am
Quoting Jupiter
fti, Sir, be gentle with me... LOL... not too harsh. I'm only an humble student of the market. Nothing to teach and nothing to show off. Please. Pattern can mutate, transform, in costant evolution. Flexibility is to follow: listen and accept. Facts and not opinions. Rules&Discipline. But the waves always leave signs on the sand... (I wrote a post to Vic 6 years ago about this issue...)
no worrys.
harsh is ok, what don't kills one only serves make one stronger.

The journey, there will be errs and mistakes.
Just don't let any of it kills the book. work within your credit limits, and with "safe" margin.
This is actually how we learn.if we have humble mind.

regards

in swing charts , one can feel the pulse and timing.
in term charts one has birds eye view of the impact of the timing.
In interbank , there is a name attached to his pricing, we even know which yoyo is scuttering .
Don't need to know why, Only that he may need help.

The learning curve is not a singular thing. or approach.
Is a combination analysis, that one can master.
And for everyone, our personality creates the drama.
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