Trading Institutional Order Flow

Hello jsk3010.
here are my thoughts on NZD/CHF

Best wishes

Hello everyone
Update on EUR/CAD.

before and after.

best wishes

Fundamentals also support long EUR CAD

SOURCE: Morgan Stanley

i also found this website by searching for sd. and honestly i could not figure out if he is pro or con sd. on the one hand he is denying whats makes sd zones on the other he still suggest sd zones. look for aweber in the email and its probably a scam. thats just my opinion. please enlight me if i am wrong.

greets
Joe

He is not denying them at all, he is simply showing the power of REAL zones over those that hold no value, countless times I have had per Seiden rules a 100% zone, big push away, long time away from zone etc etc, only for price to blast through it, and these zones which price returns to quickly always react strongly like the cable one I took today. It makes perfect sense, how banks would sell the instrument then still need to fill orders within the same day, it is the cherry on top so to speak to my trading now, I am so thankful to his articles I wish I could just him for a trip to vegas lol.

hi @pipsalon '1.115: sorry, it was to late yesterday for my, my analysis was that, but did not dare to explain her , my second trade is fill!

@Akt: thanks for you Input #1.076

Hello tradermic.

I am not sure what you are thanking me for. You are the one doing all the hard work.
Well done to you.

Best wishes

@Akt: I had not looked at the chart AUDNZD

Dear AKT, all,
Like to check, how do I find AKT's video on Youtube?
Thank you all in advance =)

Storehouse Analytics

Storehouse Analytics
(AKT's video on Youtube)

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBf...x3hHl3g/videos

Hello Akt

What is the name of that indicator that plot lines on swing high/low? I guess it is some sort related to pivot or fractal.

Cheers
Merka

Hello Merka.
good to hear from you. Hope you are well.

Correct, they are swing points.

best wishes

Akt
What is the indicator name on "tradingview"?
On your chart the name is market as "SC" but I can't find anything with that name in the indicators list.
Thanks
Merka

Hello everyone.

Firstly, let me apologize in advance for the length of this post.
It will be longer than usual.
Forgive me.

Lets talk briefly about something very important to our speculative venture. I call it "Trader Math".
We all have a cursory idea that it is important to get at least as much as you put into the market in terms of risk.
So, for example, if you risk 2%, get at least 2% back.

But, something is missing. The missing ingredient is "how often can you get back from the market, at least the minimum of what you risk?".

This is what is commonly referred to as Win rate or Win percentage.

Win rate and R:R have an inverse relationship for the speculator usually.
The higher the win rate of the trader, the more likely the lower their R:R ratio
The lower the win rate, the more likely that trader has larger R:R ratios

The nirvana for the trader is when he/she has a high win rate and a high overall R:R ratio.

The reality remains that as long as the trader with a high win rate continues having a high win rate, he can also make money in the markets.
His challenge will lie in the periods when he goes into draw-down. He may not have enough of a buffer to see him thru this.

Let us use a couple of examples.

2 new traders. Same methodology, same win rate of 30%, same risk of 2%/trade. Both take the same trades as the methodology issues the trade signal.

The difference between the two traders is in their Reward to risk structures.
The first has a R:R ratio of 1:1 and the other has a R:R ratio of 2:1

Over a sample size of 5 trades (can be any number);

First trader scenarios @ a R:R structure of 1:1, risking 2% per trade

1 win, 4 losses. Overall has 2% gain and 8% loss. Net -6% loss
2 wins, 3 losses. Overall has 4% gain and 6% loss. Net -2% loss
3 wins, 2 losses. Overall, has a 6% gain and 4% loss. Net 2% gain
4 wins, 1 loss. Overall has an 8% gain and a 2% loss. Net 6% gain
5 wins and 0 losses. Overall has a 10% gain.

You will notice that this trader has to have a win % of 60% to start to become profitable (winning 3 out of 5 trades)

Now, the Second trader scenarios @ a R:R structure of 2:1, risking the same amount of 2% per trade

1 win, 4 losses. Overall has a 4% gain, and 8% loss. Net -4% loss
2 wins, 3 losses. Overall has a 8% gain and 6% loss. Net 2% gain
3 wins and 2 losses. Overall has a 12% gain and 4% loss. Net +8% gain
4 wins and 1 loss. Overall has a 16% gain and a 2% loss. Net 14% gain
5 wins and 0 loss. Overall has a 20% gain and 0% loss. Net 20% gain.

You will notice that the second trader requires a 40% win rate to be profitable. Also, he gets in gains, double the gains of the 1:1 trader.

You can apply this to a third trader who has a 3:1 reward to risk ratio.

What you will notice is if one has bigger reward to risk ratios, one can afford to lose more trades and still be profitable. The key remains however, having a system that allows the trader achieve these higher R:R ratios frequently.

If the trader is more interested in winning and being right however, then a R:R ratio of 1:1 may suit him/her, as long as he/she understands the inherent risk with that.

The most reputable traders with the most skill and most experience tend to get anything from 40-60% of their trades correct. So, aspiring to this range is a good goal to start with. We all know we will have losing trades so 100% win rate is unrealistic.

I hope this helps traders in considering their reward to risk ratios more closely before deciding on some arbitrary number.

best wishes

book:brent penfold/ the universal principles of successful trading

AUD/NZD Analysis

Price is at weekly demand. Start looking for long opportunities.

4hr chart: Momentum line has been broken. 4 hr demand zone has been created inside weekly demand.
Looking for entries at the blue zones.

Hello Pipsalon
Thank you for sharing your idea with us, much appreciated.

Do you use the weekly, daily, 4hr time sequence please?

best wishes

Hello Michael,

I learned a lot from you videos already. Thanks. I am currently watching them again.
I am still struggling a bit when to enter when price reaches a supply or demand zone.

Can you make a video explaining about when it's the right time entering a trade, compared to when it's too early to enter a trade?
At the weekly, daily and 4 hour timeframes. That would be nice.

Best wishes.