1/ My right eye 2/ My left eye 3/ My nose ... however I am not sure in which order
- #63
- Jan 17, 2015 5:24pm Jan 17, 2015 5:24pm
- Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,542 Posts
{quote} How clever are you to leave out your brain....
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
By far number one (nothing else has remotely as much effect on my results) is time of day. For example, for the last few months I've primarily used two setups -- one a trending one the other support / resistance reversal. I day-trade a fast chart (mostly a one pip range chart on EURUSD but occasionally GBPUSD or EURJPY). I've attached results from the last couple hundred trades in my log (earlier trades were kept in a different format, but results by time periods were similar). Most of the trades from 3 am to 4:15 am EST and from 8 to 9:45 am are real trades (I typically only trade 3 hours a day). The rest are hypothetical based on chart review. Real trades are net of actual commissions, slippage, and spread. Hypothetical trades are net of 2 pips to cover these.
There tend to be post-open trending periods followed by consolidation periods. Of course, the 6:45 to 8 EST period is when Londoners are at lunch and they start going home around 9:45 EST.
I quit gathering data on afternoons and middle-of-the-night stuff years ago. It's just not "efficient" trading -- way to much butt time for the pips.
I'm not saying there are no good or even great trades for my setups in the "not-so-hot" time periods, there are. It's just that they're much fewer and farther between and you have to wade through an enormous amount of chaff (i.e., losses) to get to the wheat. So, the long-term hourly pip rate tends to be abysmal. I make my living trading 3:00 am to 4:15 am, going back to bed and then trading 8:00 to 9:45 with an occasional visit to the post Asia open. Google "bifurcated sleep" -- when done right it's a healthy sleep pattern. If I limit the 4:15 to 5:30 and 6:15 to 8:00 time periods to only days when there is significant news during them I can get them a bit above breakeven but why bother? I'd rather sleep. I also eliminate the half hour prior to major news announcements, so sometimes I start at 8:30 instead of 8.
Number two for me is a combination of volume and velocity (how much volume and how fast are my range bars painting?).
Number three are stochs on two higher level charts (3 pip and 9 pip). Here I want to make sure that BOTH stochs are not against me (they don't have to both be with me). The win rate when both are against me is about 15%.
I use just a few other indicators (primarily SMAs, VWAP, and pivots), but the above are my "Big 3."
There tend to be post-open trending periods followed by consolidation periods. Of course, the 6:45 to 8 EST period is when Londoners are at lunch and they start going home around 9:45 EST.
I quit gathering data on afternoons and middle-of-the-night stuff years ago. It's just not "efficient" trading -- way to much butt time for the pips.
I'm not saying there are no good or even great trades for my setups in the "not-so-hot" time periods, there are. It's just that they're much fewer and farther between and you have to wade through an enormous amount of chaff (i.e., losses) to get to the wheat. So, the long-term hourly pip rate tends to be abysmal. I make my living trading 3:00 am to 4:15 am, going back to bed and then trading 8:00 to 9:45 with an occasional visit to the post Asia open. Google "bifurcated sleep" -- when done right it's a healthy sleep pattern. If I limit the 4:15 to 5:30 and 6:15 to 8:00 time periods to only days when there is significant news during them I can get them a bit above breakeven but why bother? I'd rather sleep. I also eliminate the half hour prior to major news announcements, so sometimes I start at 8:30 instead of 8.
Number two for me is a combination of volume and velocity (how much volume and how fast are my range bars painting?).
Number three are stochs on two higher level charts (3 pip and 9 pip). Here I want to make sure that BOTH stochs are not against me (they don't have to both be with me). The win rate when both are against me is about 15%.
I use just a few other indicators (primarily SMAs, VWAP, and pivots), but the above are my "Big 3."
- #71
- Nov 10, 2015 5:10am Nov 10, 2015 5:10am
- | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2009 | 2,376 Posts
price ,price ,price
all have a nice day
all have a nice day
focus while relaxed to see better
throw me a Doge: D9eyP5TFYGDaN1JpjyU4jaU9ypg2wUk8Zp
