High Probability Insight: Day-Trade Daily Momentum on M1/M5TF

UK Manufacturing PMI climbs to ten-month high in August


August saw solid rebounds in the trends in UK manufacturing output and incoming new orders.

Companies reported solid inflows of new work from both domestic and export sources, the latter
aided by the sterling exchange rate. Employment rose for the first time in the year-to-date.

At 53.3 in August, the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI )
recovered sharply from the 41-month low of 48.3 posted in July following the EU referendum.

The month-on-month increase in the level of the headline PMI (5.0 points) was the joint-greatest
in the near 25-year survey history.

Manufacturing production increased at the fastest pace in seven months during August, an improvement
on the contraction registered in the prior month. All three of the market groups covered by the survey
returned to growth, with the strongest expansion registered in the consumer goods sector....

Prior to the news release, I was able to position myself ahead of time, because I knew the momentum to the
upside was very solid, and it would take a big Jump before going down after the News...Little did I know, the
number came out positive, and the rest was a fun ride....

Current Market Condition/Sentiment (Observation Only )



It makes no sense at all to hold a position for 3 days, and only getting 30+pips out of it....

Well, I made a decision to reduce my exposure instead of closing it out...Too bad, I got stopped out
on stupid spread.....

It's alright...At least, I know how far my patience can go....LOL!

GBP/JPY Insight: Where do we go from now?

US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate: ( For Friday, Sept 2nd 2016 )

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

What to Expect:

Job creation in July topped estimates as the economy expanded by 255,000 positions. The unemployment rate
remained steady at 4.9%.

The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.8%. Hourly wages also improved, rising by 8 cents or an annualized
pace of 2.6%, while the average workweek edged up to 34.5 hours.

Economists expected an increase of 180,000 jobs with a decline of the unemployment rate to 4.8%.This great report
shows the labor market continues to strengthen as domestic demand increases.

Economists expect the US economy will gain 186,000 jobs in August, and the Unemployment rate will decline to 4.8%.

Note: I will be watching GBP/JPY or USD/JPY

Current Market Condition/Sentiment:




I am only watching GBP/JPY...

It's Non-Farm Payroll Day. The market hasn't been moving for me for the past hour or 2. So, I decided to
place a Trailing stop on that trade, and get what I can get...Then, Later, I will scalp the market till the end
of the week....



Good Luck Yall!

Payrolls in U.S. Rise by 151,000 in August; Jobless Rate Steady

U.S. payrolls grew at a slower but solid pace in August while measures of labor slack were little changed,
signs the job market is cooling as the economy approaches full employment.

Payrolls climbed by 151,000 last month following a 275,000 (Revised from 255k) gain in July that was
larger than previously estimated, a Labor Department report showed Friday in Washington. The median
forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 180,000. The unemployment rate and labor participation rate
held steady, while wage gains moderated and hours worked were the lowest since 2014.

The August figure is consistent with a simmering-down of payrolls growth so far this year as the world’s
largest economy slogs through a period of weak investment and some companies have difficulty finding
workers.

Analysts were divided on whether the report gives Federal Reserve officials a green light to raise the
benchmark interest rate in September for the first time in 2016, while futures traders slightly pared
bets on a move.

“Overall, it still looks like the job market is doing well,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan
Securities LLC in New York, who projected a 150,000 gain in payrolls. Even so, “this probably takes a little bit
away from the case for a September move,” with the shorter workweek “a bit of a concern,” said Feroli, who
projects the Fed will raise rates in December.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said they see a 55 percent probability of a rate hike this month, and
Janus Capital’s Bill Gross also said the Fed is likely to move in September.

A sustained slowdown in hiring would raise questions about America's consumer-driven expansion as the Fed
debates whether to increase rates as soon as this month, or wait for more signs of faster inflation. Chair Janet
Yellen said last week that the case for rate hikes "has strengthened in recent months."

Note: As a trader, it's important to understand the talking points, and analyse all the speculations, but at the
end of the day, the News doesn't really matter. What matters is which group is doing the BUYING and SELLING
when the News hits. And because of that, I was able to create a system that is so easy to understand and easy to
Execute. I hope that you guys understand the value of that system and take Full Advantage of it....

Yep...following your preceps, I got my feet wet yesterday with the JPY crosses and managed to pocket 130 pips. Thanks for your advice and encouragement!

BC2

Ka-ching!!!!! Ka-ching!!!!

Well done mate, and you are on the right path....

It takes a certain level of knowledge and confidence to make that many pips within a short period of time....I salute you for that BC2.

Now, it's time for you to develop your own Daily Routine and stick to it....

Have a great weekend!

Jay

Upcoming Risk Event for Asian Session Traders



Note:

AUD ....................Cash Rate Decision / RBA Rate Statement

Australia’s Central Bank cut rates by a quarter point to an all-time low of 1.5% in August,
the second rate decrease was done to move the economy away from deflation and restrain
a too-strong currency.

This move was widely expected. Economists anticipate more easing measures in the coming
months with a 68% chance for another cut in December.

Current Market Condition/Sentiment ( AUD pairs are in focus for the next 2 hours )




Sidenote: AUD sentiment can change at any given moment (before or after the news Release )

There's no guarantee for a DROP since the Current Sentiment is still Bullish, but when I get into
the mind of the other traders (Buyers). I realized that they would prefer the market to drop a little bit
for much better Long Entries...

Anyway, this is just my speculation:

Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent. The global
economy is continuing to grow, at a lower than average pace.

Several advanced economies have recorded improved conditions over the past year, but conditions have
become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies. Actions by Chinese policymakers
have been supporting growth, but the underlying pace of China's growth appears to be moderating.

Commodity prices are above recent lows, but this follows very substantial declines over the past couple
of years.

Australia's terms of trade remain much lower than they had been in recent years...

Taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy at its May and August meetings,
the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with
sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.

Note: AUD strength is fading a little bit, but USD is so freaking WEAK right now; and as a result it is so difficult
for AUD/USD to drop....I am just going to walk away from this trade and find something else to trade later or
tomorrow....

Take care yalll!

Poor Services ISM Sends Greenback Reeling

The US dollar was already trading with a heavier bias before the shockingly poor service ISM. The August
non-manufacturing ISM tumbled to 51.4, a six-year low, from 55.5 in July. Markit, which does its own
survey, showed a smaller decline in its August read to 51.0 from 51.4 in July. This was up slightly from
the preliminary 50.9 estimate.

In any case, the weakness in the manufacturing ISM, the softer than expected employment data, and now
the weaker services ISM makes some economists fret about Q3 GDP and lower the odds of a rate hike by
the FOMC later this month.

Recall that before the weekend, after the employment and trade figures, the Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker pointed
to 3.5% Q2 GDP, up from 3.2% previously. The NY Fed's model was little changed on the week at 2.8%.

I was going for a small drop, and it didn't happen....Instead I got crushed by that ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
news...

First Trade was a lost and second trade was a small gain through trailing stop.

USD/JPY Insight:

Some people are calling for a 94 Drop. Let's trade this pair one bite at a time...It's just not realistic to place
a small position here and walk away....The market moves in a certain way that creates opportunity for
everybody whether you want to go Short or Long.

I kept telling myself that this pair was going to be UP throughout the week, and walked away from a nice
Short Trade Setup. Gosh!

Anyway, I have 2 different stories there.

H4TF



M30TF

I hope that some of you took advantage of that DROP during the Asian Session. I was able to walk away with
a quick 60+pips.

USD/JPY, M30TF Trade Setup:

Slow Day for a quick 1:1

EUR/JPY, H1TF Trade Setup : Waiting for a Trigger Signal




Note: A SellSignal has been triggered on M15TF, but I would prefer to get an entry after the London Open

EUR/GBP, H1TF Trade Setup:

Waiting for a clear Signal after the London Open

what does your equity curve look like right now?