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Trap the Market

  • #141
  • Aug 19, 2016 9:35am Aug 19, 2016 9:35am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} GBPUSD opened below yesterday's daily high and is now trading below the monthly pivot. Any bearish move that breaks the daily pivot will be cue for me to trade southwards. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Don't be fooled by the pullback, much likely GBPUSD is still sailing southwards. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #142
  • Aug 21, 2016 10:12am Aug 21, 2016 10:12am
The EURUSD price does not appear to be feasible for swing trading atm. It is largely in a sideways mode, may be a scalper's delight. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #143
  • Aug 22, 2016 5:34am Aug 22, 2016 5:34am
During the weekly scan and analysis of the pairs on my watch list, which I completed on Sunday afternoon, I chose three pairs for possible trading this week. The pairs are: GBPJPY, GBPCAD and GBPNZD. A fourth one, EURJPY, will require a mid-week update before I make a decision on it. My first priority pair for the week is GBPJPY and here is my perspective on it.

GBPJPY: 'A'-rated pair overall; this is first priority trade for the week. On the 4-Hrly time frame which is my setup time frame - price has completed three price waves to the downside and is now in a consolidation mode around the trendline. Price is ranging around my EMA combo which are rather flat and the RSI is not well directed to the upside. However, bulls and bears are equally influential as the candles being formed are neutralizing one another size and number wise. The RSI is a bit upward pointed but lacks momentum. Apparently the southward mode is still in play, more so as the trendline has not been breached to the upside. Wait for an opportunity to trade this pair to the downside.

I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #144
  • Aug 23, 2016 4:21am Aug 23, 2016 4:21am
I wonder why some traders would want to chase the market rather than trap it. A major discovery of my trading career thus far is that you achieve more by doing less, you are more successful by waiting for the market than by rushing into and through the market. Trapping the market is hard, because you do a lot of planning work when there is no market to trade (e.g. on Sundays) and you do a lot of patient (frustrating) waiting for your levels/zones/conditions to be breached/met. But the actual time for the real trading is a few hours during the week - leaving you ample time to enjoy your life.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #145
  • Aug 23, 2016 4:37am Aug 23, 2016 4:37am
Quoting KeenPips
I wonder why some traders would want to chase the market rather than trap it. A major discovery of my trading career thus far is that you achieve more by doing less, you are more successful by waiting for the market than by rushing into and through the market. Trapping the market is hard, because you do a lot of planning work when there is no market to trade (e.g. on Sundays) and you do a lot of patient (frustrating) waiting for your levels/zones/conditions to be breached/met. But the actual time for the real trading is a few hours during the week...

Let's learn to trap the market. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #146
  • Aug 24, 2016 8:00am Aug 24, 2016 8:00am
The major outlook on the EURUSD is bearish. The pair has been trading in an upward channel since August 2 and it is now strongly challenging/testing the lower trendline of the channel on the daily time frame. Most likely if the channel is successfully broken southwards, this may offer an impetus for further southward move, perhaps to test the monthly pivot - which is in confluence with the immediate support zone on the daily time frame. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #147
  • Aug 24, 2016 10:59am Aug 24, 2016 10:59am
Looking at the AUDUSD atm, it seems that price action on it is undergoing a role flip at the daily pivot. That area coincides with the 89 EMA on the 4H as well as a significant S/R zone on the same time frame. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #148
  • Aug 24, 2016 11:06am Aug 24, 2016 11:06am
Quoting KeenPips
Looking at the AUDUSD atm, it seems that price action on it is undergoing a role flip at the daily pivot. That area coincides with the 89 EMA on the 4H as well as a significant S/R zone on the same time frame. Trade safe.
If price breaks below the 200 EMA or 233 EMA on the 4H time frame that would be a significant clue for a further southwards move. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #149
  • Aug 24, 2016 11:27am Aug 24, 2016 11:27am
Technically we are still very much in a northward mood on the cable. The technicals on the HTFs are very much in agreement on this. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #150
  • Aug 28, 2016 11:28am Aug 28, 2016 11:28am
I am still in the process of the weekly scan and analysis of the pairs on my watch list. From my analysis, the EURUSD is still in a bearish mode but the momentum may still be limited, at least earlier in the week. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #151
  • Aug 28, 2016 1:22pm Aug 28, 2016 1:22pm
Quoting KeenPips
I am still in the process of the weekly scan and analysis of the pairs on my watch list. From my analysis, the EURUSD is still in a bearish mode but the momentum may still be limited, at least earlier in the week. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
I have just completed the weekly scan and analysis of the pairs on my watch list. During the week I will look to trade two pairs southwards, EURGBP and AUDUSD, as they meet the criteria for my trading style and techniques. The third pair which I may trade is the GBPNZD but I will step aside from it for now. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #152
  • Edited 4:37pm Aug 28, 2016 4:12pm | Edited 4:37pm
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} I have just completed the weekly scan and analysis of the pairs on my watch list. During the week I will look to trade two pairs southwards, EURGBP and AUDUSD, as they meet the criteria for my trading style and techniques. The third pair which I may trade is the GBPNZD but I will step aside from it for now. Trade safe.
Here is why I want to step aside from the GBPNZD for now, representing my perspective on the pair:

GBPNZD: This pair is rated B on my system; the technicals are mixed suggesting a pair in a ranging mode. On the 4H time frame, which I use for my set up, price has been on the downside mode since July 20. Since then, two long price waves have been completed to the downside. After the first price wave, there was a strong and long retracement to the upside which tested a major consolidation zone created during the first price wave southward. The zone was strongly rejected downwards with a long bearish purely a fundamentls-induced one which was shortly followed by a retracement.

The second price wave southwards started with a bearish rejection of the August monthly pivot, which was in confluence with the 23.6 Fib level. This second price wave southwards resulted in the current consolidation mode. This consolidation mode, interspersed with a stint of bullish thrust, started on August 12, and formed a horizontal channel after a mixed upward move in which both bulls and bears were struggling for market control. Thus, since August 18, the market has been in a consolidation mode albeit with a long range of about 270 pips. At the high of the consolidation range, a bear pin-bar formed in rejection of the level and in reaction to the fundamentals-energized long bullish move.

It is probable that the price may move further southwards to retest the low of the range taking out the influence of the fundamentals-energized long bullish move; this may see price test the support zone around 1.79401 1.78955. Otherwise, particularly if there is high impact fundamentals favorable, price may move to retest the immediate resistance zone around 1.82450 1.83016.

Technically, it is much likely that the pair is in retracement downwards for an upward move and my bias is for at least a short-term northward move.

I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #153
  • Aug 28, 2016 4:46pm Aug 28, 2016 4:46pm
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} I have just completed the weekly scan and analysis of the pairs on my watch list. During the week I will look to trade two pairs southwards, EURGBP and AUDUSD, as they meet the criteria for my trading style and techniques. The third pair which I may trade is the GBPNZD but I will step aside from it for now. Trade safe.
Here is why EURGBP is my priority trade this week, representing my perspective on it:

EURGBP: This pair is rated B+ on my system; the technicals and momentum favour a downside move. On the 4H time frame, which I use for my set up, price has been on a northward move since August 4. Since then four full price waves (1-2-3) upwards have been completed.

The first price wave was energized by fundamentals largely. In regard to the market order context, the bulls had been dominant with moderate-size bull candles and the bears made a struggle with smaller and fewer bear candles. After a bull spike to squeeze out and manipulate stops/buy orders at the end of the fourth wave, a southward price wave was put in play by a relatively big bearish engulfing candle. The retracement after the first southward price wave tested the resistance created earlier and rejected it with a bull pin-bar/shooting star, representing a continuation of price move to the south.

The second price wave southwards has just ended with a retracement upwards with price rejecting the 38.2 fib – which is in confluence with the 60 EMA.

I expect the price wave to continue southwards during the week barring any high impact fundamentals to upset the move; which would likely see price move northwards to retest the resistance zone around 0.86960.

I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #154
  • Aug 29, 2016 4:42pm Aug 29, 2016 4:42pm
Cable is now on a retracement upwards for a further southward move. See attachment. I may be wrong. Trade safe.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_4H_View_Augst_29,_2016.png Size: 17 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_1H_View_August_29,_2016.png Size: 17 KB
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #155
  • Aug 29, 2016 5:10pm Aug 29, 2016 5:10pm
GBPNZD is making a move northwards, possibly to retest the weekly pivot, which is in confluence with the immediate resistance zone on the 4H tf. If it successfully bounces off it, that is likely going to see the pair trade southwards targeting the immediate support around 1.78995-1.78116. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #156
  • Aug 30, 2016 1:35pm Aug 30, 2016 1:35pm
You can enjoy the beauty of cable's southwards move for much of the rest of the week. All technicals stay focused on that, except there is any significant fundamentals to upset the direction. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #157
  • Aug 31, 2016 1:51am Aug 31, 2016 1:51am
Quoting KeenPips
You can enjoy the beauty of cable's southwards move for much of the rest of the week. All technicals stay focused on that, except there is any significant fundamentals to upset the direction. Trade safe.
Have you wondered about the cable's northward sentiment since 12 hours ago when I made the last post? If you were me, you'd see it as a mere corrective move - just 40 pips to the north in 12 hours could not be regarded a big deal for a swing trader with a bearish bias on the pair. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #158
  • Sep 2, 2016 4:00am Sep 2, 2016 4:00am
I still maintain a bearish bias on EURUSD unless high impact fundamentals upset the direction. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #159
  • Sep 4, 2016 6:45am Sep 4, 2016 6:45am
I have just completed the weekly scanning and analysis of the pairs on my watch list and I will look for an opportunity to trade the NZDUSD northwards based on the following analysis, representing my perspective on the pair.

NZDUSD: The pair was rated 'B+' overall on my system. On the 4-Hourly time frame, my set-up time frame, the pair has been clearly on an upside move since July 26 although the momentum has been rather choppy. One significant price wave upwards has been completed. This price wave to the upside was followed by a series of wild pull-backs that eventually breached my medium-term EMA. An attempt was made for a second price wave but it resulted in a rather choppy move, basically an ascending channel pattern, with a series of lower highs and pullbacks towards the medium-term EMA which was not breached until fundamentals' inspired price action spiked the market upwards and violently pushed down to breach the medium-term EMA on August 26. This broke the ascending channel southwards but price pulled back to a significant short-term EMA just below the channel and traded briefly southwards and began another ascending channel. Price later tested the lower trendline of the initial ascending channel and rejected it by a relatively big bull candle with a long upper tail followed by a relatively big bear candle with a long lower tail. On the daily time frame, this pattern is a shooting star in an ascending channel. With the EMAs well directed to the upside, there is higher probability for price to continue a northward push. However, failure to break above the lower trendline of the upper channel and take out 0.73217 or thereabout, the significant resistance zone created in July following the June 24 Brexit price action, may see the price recoil to within the lower channel towards the monthly pivot around 0.72374. Apparently, the sentiment favours a northward move at least in the short term.

I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #160
  • Sep 4, 2016 7:29am Sep 4, 2016 7:29am
Quoting KeenPips
I have just completed the weekly scanning and analysis of the pairs on my watch list and I will look for an opportunity to trade the NZDUSD northwards based on the following analysis, representing my perspective on the pair. NZDUSD: The pair was rated 'B+' overall on my system. On the 4-Hourly time frame, my set-up time frame, the pair has been clearly on an upside move since July 26 although the momentum has been rather choppy. One significant price wave upwards has been completed. This price wave to the upside was followed by a series of wild...
See attached.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_Sept_4,_2016_ChartView.png Size: 32 KB
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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