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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,081
  • Aug 28, 2016 8:45pm Aug 28, 2016 8:45pm
Quoting peterdrill
In STX (Seagate Tech) now at the Sept strike 31 Call. Pattern seems to be breaking out to the upside today indicating its next leg higher.
Even better for STX: Sept 2nd expiration 32 strike call. STX has a SOIR of 1.34 and is in the 96th percentile of its annual range. SVI is just 1% point from a 12 month low.

More for this week Sept 2nd expiration that I will be entering:

AIG 58 strike call.
MET 43 strike put
MBLY 46.50 strike call
GLD 127 strike put
TRIP 63 strike put
  • #14,082
  • Aug 29, 2016 1:26pm Aug 29, 2016 1:26pm
Quoting The Fool
I expect a thin week pre-Labor Day and pre-NFP. The Sept NFP sets up a good buy rumor opp: another big NFP number will get the jawbones working about a hawkish Sept FOMC, so we could see some actual (down) movement in equities in Sept up to the 9/21 FOMC show. A Sept ffr hike gets the CB divergence juices working: stronger USD, weaker commodities, less support for equities, etc. I am shopping cheap SPX 2-day or 5-day SPX put calendars in the FOMC week into the following week; also shopping the old cheap UVXY call verts in the same time frame.
btfd forever foo, you prolly won't even live long enough to see the shit unwind
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,083
  • Aug 29, 2016 4:14pm Aug 29, 2016 4:14pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}btfd forever foo, you prolly won't even live long enough to see the shit unwind
It's a crazy market. If you can't beat them, might as well just join them.
  • #14,084
  • Aug 29, 2016 6:13pm Aug 29, 2016 6:13pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}btfd forever foo, you prolly won't even live long enough to see the shit unwind
leave me in your will, i'll probably live long enough - if nothing else to do right by you

Why don't you trade futures?
  • #14,085
  • Aug 29, 2016 8:39pm Aug 29, 2016 8:39pm
My new one for Tuesday:

Debit spread on CTAS (Cintas).
Buy Nov $115 calls at $4.70.
Sell Nov $125 calls for $0.50.

If price projected to $123.40, ROI would be 99.35%. That's to say that CTAS goes up 5.77% in the next 12 weeks.
  • #14,086
  • Aug 29, 2016 9:53pm Aug 29, 2016 9:53pm
Quoting Pharm0r
leave me in your will, i'll probably live long enough - if nothing else to do right by you Why don't you trade futures?
I can't trade futures in IRA accounts that I have. I'm giving up on trading, anyway. The "markets" have been hijacked by the Central Banks. Trading won't be good again until they finally and utterly, if not maybe completely collectively....fail.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,087
  • Aug 29, 2016 9:56pm Aug 29, 2016 9:56pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I can't trade futures in IRA accounts that I have. I giving up on trading, anyway. The "markets" have been hijacked by the Central Banks. Trading won't be good again until they finally and utterly, if not maybe completely collectively....fail.
I agree but giving up on that. The bulls have taken my soul. Their's still some good opportunities around
  • #14,088
  • Aug 30, 2016 6:27pm Aug 30, 2016 6:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I can't trade futures in IRA accounts that I have. I'm giving up on trading, anyway. The "markets" have been hijacked by the Central Banks. Trading won't be good again until they finally and utterly, if not maybe completely collectively....fail.
Something to look forward too. Question is and has been - when?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get...rop-2016-08-30
  • #14,089
  • Sep 1, 2016 1:37pm Sep 1, 2016 1:37pm
Life is full of disappointments. The NFP will be fair to middling. The Fed will play the same old song in September. BTFD, maybe not forever, but for a while yet....

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,090
  • Sep 1, 2016 1:43pm Sep 1, 2016 1:43pm
Quoting The Fool
The NFP will be fair to middling.
...and equities will bounce. I bought some SPX 9/6-9/7 2185 call calendars for 75c....(a 1-day calendar )......this a sharpshooter exercise. I already have SPX put spreads set up for Sep FOMC week.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,091
  • Sep 1, 2016 2:36pm Sep 1, 2016 2:36pm
VIX $13.5/$13.0 9/7 puts cost me 15c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,092
  • Sep 2, 2016 9:30pm Sep 2, 2016 9:30pm
Have a good Labor Day, man ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,093
  • Sep 2, 2016 9:52pm Sep 2, 2016 9:52pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Have a good Labor Day, man ... .
Same to ya bro. I'll be working straight thru, working on piling up cash.....maybe there will be some good trading opps again in my lifetime...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,094
  • Sep 2, 2016 10:03pm Sep 2, 2016 10:03pm
https://www.yahoo.com/news/hanjin-ba...--finance.html

"The bankruptcy is having "a ripple effect throughout the global supply chain" that could cause significant harm to both consumers and the U.S. economy...."

This is one of those things that comes out of the blue, could end up being noticeable in the US in various ways. Prolly not as bad as the Teamsters strike that shut down the west coast ports a year or so back, though....

I rode the ferrires in/out of Seattle several times in the last week, saw Hanjin loaded ships all over the place, nowhere to go. Now I know why. Good business for the tugs....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,095
  • Sep 3, 2016 8:18pm Sep 3, 2016 8:18pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Same to ya bro. I'll be working straight thru, working on piling up cash.....maybe there will be some good trading opps again in my lifetime...
Well, as it turned out, selling in May and going away for the summer would not have been a totally bad idea, ironically ... . Brexit itself was a minor hoot, but immediately after that, all the vol pissed out of the market ... . Out of the last ten weekly VIX candles, only one has been green, and there hasn't been a Daily candle with part of its body above 15 since July 7th ... . So much for the wonks saying "higher volatility is here to stay for a while" ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #14,096
  • Sep 3, 2016 9:32pm Sep 3, 2016 9:32pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... . So much for the wonks saying "higher volatility is here to stay for a while" ... .
yeah....I have lost money post-Brexit day.....most loss came from DC's I set up for August ER's and the volscape was so flaccid there was hardly any vol rise into ER's across the board......the major takeaway, and an expensive lesson learned: it generally is not worth the time and capital risk to try to trade options in dead vol markets. I'm better off spending time doing the things I do that pay and just piling cash. These low vol stretches can last for years.....I ain't getting any younger, either....

Long vol?....meh....I have my doubts now that it is possible to trade "scheduled" long vol, not with the CB's sitting on the bid non-stop. Otherwise, you can have long vol trades running non-stop to try to catch something exogenous, but that gets exepensie, even when you know how to get in those trades with super cheap spreads....

Short vol? Nope, check the charts - the ^vix will scrape along a bottom rail literally for years...

The Brexit vote was a great short vol/long risk assets opp, SPX has come up near 300 pts.....but we are even so still only 50 pts above the high range of last summer.

I have been thinking of plowing my IRA money into a trustee-managed deal where I could do RE investing. The RE market sucks, too - totally bubblicious here in the PacNW.

so, yeah...everything sucks so fuck everything.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-09-03_1919SPX.png Size: 55 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,097
  • Sep 3, 2016 11:29pm Sep 3, 2016 11:29pm
Quoting The Fool
Long vol?....meh....I have my doubts now that it is possible to trade "scheduled" long vol, not with the CB's sitting on the bid non-stop. Otherwise, you can have long vol trades running non-stop to try to catch something exogenous, but that gets exepensie, even when you know how to get in those trades with super cheap spreads....
UVXY calls - diag/vert combo - the Big Kahuna - maybe you can fill em cheap, but rarely what is shown overnight gets filled in rmh, try to fill as close to itm as possible.....as shown it's a 8:1 r:r for a perfect finish front legs, then the back leg runs alone....but, you can put these on til the cows come home and make no money if there's no vol upside.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-09-03_2119uvxy.png Size: 80 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,098
  • Sep 4, 2016 2:04am Sep 4, 2016 2:04am
Quoting The Fool
UVXY calls - diag/vert combo - the Big Kahuna -
etc....nice to do the 1-month wide diags, long-dated....maybe have to spread the diag strikes as shown to get in cheap, and that ties up bp...but if you do one a month you would alsways be in the hunt, with one diag coming into expiry and a back long leg (from the previous month set) also ... maybe all worthless, ok, but you can always stuff cash under the mattress and shoot at anybody comes near the house.

...the verts set the trades up, I would always fill those and then fill the diags behind them.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-09-03_2346uvxy2.png Size: 80 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,099
  • Sep 4, 2016 6:33pm Sep 4, 2016 6:33pm
what's the other side?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nowhe...100000837.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,100
  • Sep 5, 2016 11:40pm Sep 5, 2016 11:40pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}yeah....I have lost money post-Brexit day.....most loss came from DC's I set up for August ER's and the volscape was so flaccid there was hardly any vol rise into ER's across the board......the major takeaway, and an expensive lesson learned: it generally is not worth the time and capital risk to try to trade options in dead vol markets. I'm better off spending time doing the things I do that pay and just piling cash. These low vol stretches can last for years.....I ain't getting any younger, either.... Long vol?....meh....I have my doubts...
Speaking of "fucking everything":

Inserted Video
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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