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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,381
  • Aug 26, 2016 12:05pm Aug 26, 2016 12:05pm
Quoting fti
{quote} nonono you do not understand. there is nothing wrong in your post. but your mind is disillusioned. you quote that everything is a mirage. But your mirage is illusional. i explained and asked you if you understand about your assumptions. Its very clear to me you never been there. so you not understand except that you made assumption that is base on your mirage. If you unable understand and you insist your assumption is correct, then you can learn from the markets. It does not affect anyone else. Its your own business, But its wasting my energy...
When you talk about someone, you make it personal.
Challenge my method, idea, system.
We can have a civil debate.

Now, you claim I make assumptions.
I make no assumptions.
Yes, when you give something a name ( support, supply, trend, etc...), you are creating a mirage.
When I draw a line at the high, it is fact, at the time.
There will either be a new high or there won't.
Not 50/50.

Open to learn what I can.
Please tell me what you believe to be inaccurate.
Yes, retail markets are "fictional".
Many of us play in that sandbox.
We are not able to play in other sandbox.
We do the best we can, where we are and with what we have.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #55,382
  • Aug 26, 2016 12:13pm Aug 26, 2016 12:13pm
Quoting fti
@ slow. in thread please. You use opening as benchmark. The question is do you understand the significance of opening price in the OTC environment? Is different from exchange traded opening. The function is similar but the mechanics is very different. regards
What opening price?
Hourly?
Daily?
Weekly?
Monthly?

They have no significance to me.
Then have no meaning.
I assign them no meaning.
They are lines on the chart.
The only thing possible to be considered as significant is the fact once drawn, never moved.
Price will move away from the open.
Price will move toward the open.
Price may cross the open and move away.
Price may turn around, cross the open and move away.
Knowing and applying those at the right time with the right leverage can result in significant profits.

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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #55,383
  • Aug 26, 2016 12:18pm Aug 26, 2016 12:18pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} The market has no probabilities (future). They market only has statistics (past). Maybe I am not the one who is disillusioned.
Hello to all, very insightful thread this one; i was almost desparing to find good stuff on FF.
I still am reading, around page 53 so i'm staying behind the curtains for now, but I am far away from the quoted post: I would say that is right the opposite and would add that trading statistics or probabilities it is a losing strategy in both of the cases: past means nothing and future is unpredictable.
In trading environment there is no right nor wrong: most of the issues traders face with belongs from the inability to grasp this concept; as us all have been educated since we were kids to see things as right or wrong, thereafter we have been conditioned to stay as much as possible on the right side.
Now in most of the cases everything is done in trading is an attempt to decifer what market will do because people think that the main thing is to be right.
The truth is that on each trade, whatever indicators or systems or other fancy things are used, the probability of being right or wrong is always around 50%, more or less.
This is the hardest task to win, those who have figured it out make pips day in and day out whether they are right or wrong.
  • #55,384
  • Aug 26, 2016 12:19pm Aug 26, 2016 12:19pm
Quoting fti
If you not need help, you have your own thread. do what you wish there. you have no standing here. This is my thread and you disrupting others. already some had blocked you. your ego don't understand, do you? Truth is i find nothing wrong with your posts. Except what you talk about and what you do, is not in sync. already asked you no hang goat head and sell dog meat. can think? have brain? If you try explain, maybe we can discuss. But if you insist, then .............. If you really believe everything is a mirage....
I offered to quit posting in your thread.
Not sure how my post disrupts anyone.
Anyone can scroll by or ignore any post and continue on with their lives.

But you have my attention.
You claim what I talk about and what I do are not in sync.
In what way are they not in sync.
Please be specific.
No analogies or cute retorts - be real.
It is possible many will learn from our discussion if we keep it civil, on-topic and clear rather than esoteric.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #55,385
  • Aug 26, 2016 12:21pm Aug 26, 2016 12:21pm
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} Hello to all, very insightful thread this one; i was almost desparing to find good stuff on FF. I still am reading, around page 53 so i'm staying behind the curtains for now, but I am far away from the quoted post: I would say that is right the opposite and would add that trading statistics or probabilities it is a losing strategy in both of the cases: past means nothing and future is unpredictable. In trading environment there is no right nor wrong: most of the issues traders face with belongs from the inability to grasp this concept; as...
Right?
No.
Wrong?
No.
Only profit or loss.
End of the day, only matters profit or loss.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #55,386
  • Aug 26, 2016 12:29pm Aug 26, 2016 12:29pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Right? No. Wrong? No. Only profit or loss. End of the day, only matters profit or loss.
well, sorry but this sounds a bit obvious to me: we still are inside the concept of right/wrong here; try to go out of this box and "think different"
  • #55,387
  • Aug 26, 2016 4:43pm Aug 26, 2016 4:43pm
Quoting fti
{quote} nonono you do not understand. there is nothing wrong in your post. but your mind is disillusioned. you quote that everything is a mirage. But your mirage is illusional. i explained and asked you if you understand about your assumptions. Its very clear to me you never been there. so you not understand except that you made assumption that is base on your mirage. If you unable understand and you insist your assumption is correct, then you can learn from the markets. It does not affect anyone else. Its your own business, But its wasting my energy...
"disillusioned" means "having lost faith or trust in something".

I did several long term backtests and I proved at least, to myself that the market is mostly trending. You may say "but the market may change" , YES it may change just like everything else! and we always base our decisions on past data, right !?
  • #55,388
  • Aug 26, 2016 5:45pm Aug 26, 2016 5:45pm
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} well, sorry but this sounds a bit obvious to me: we still are inside the concept of right/wrong here; try to go out of this box and "think different"
What is obvious is often unseen.
Outside of the profit/loss box?
Outside of the end of day box?

Today was a very profitable day for me.
Trading short at the highest H1 open.
Trading long at the lowest H1 open.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #55,389
  • Edited 11:29pm Aug 26, 2016 10:00pm | Edited 11:29pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} What opening price? Hourly? Daily? Weekly? Monthly? They have no significance to me. Then have no meaning. I assign them no meaning. They are lines on the chart. The only thing possible to be considered as significant is the fact once drawn, never moved. Price will move away from the open. Price will move toward the open. Price may cross the open and move away. Price may turn around, cross the open and move away. Knowing and applying those at the right time with the right leverage can result in significant profits. {image} {image}
Very tempting proposition.
Still not made decision yet.

Thinking, if it rots , then very smelly.
lots flip flops coming here also.
Should I?
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  • #55,390
  • Edited 10:38pm Aug 26, 2016 10:03pm | Edited 10:38pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} "disillusioned" means "having lost faith or trust in something". I did several long term backtests and I proved at least, to myself that the market is mostly trending. You may say "but the market may change" , YES it may change just like everything else! and we always base our decisions on past data, right !?
Maybe only you.
Go climb a tree.

You have habit go everywhere open your mouth , say anything you like?
Learn have some manners, who the fish are you?
Its very tense here now. Bewary of stray bullets.

whats your point?
What is the topic you discussing?
Here we discussing , tooslow brought his mo into my thread.
and i find it incompatible.
what's it to you?

what are you saying.
If i think you saying what you saying . just buy and sell the moving averages,be a millioaire and drink coffee everyday.
and go everywhere shoot your mouth out.
  • #55,391
  • Edited Aug 27, 2016 12:39am Aug 26, 2016 11:20pm | Edited Aug 27, 2016 12:39am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} What is obvious is often unseen. Outside of the profit/loss box? Outside of the end of day box? Today was a very profitable day for me. Trading short at the highest H1 open. Trading long at the lowest H1 open.
OK , that does it.
NO SNAKEOIL SALEMEN ALLOWED.

GET OUT OF HERE AND STAY OUT.
TODAY IS SATURDAY.

GOODBYE
  • #55,392
  • Edited 1:00am Aug 27, 2016 12:41am | Edited 1:00am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} "disillusioned" means "having lost faith or trust in something". I did several long term backtests and I proved at least, to myself that the market is mostly trending. You may say "but the market may change" , YES it may change just like everything else! and we always base our decisions on past data, right !?
thats where what you say might not be totally right about basing decisions on past data, i don't just base my decision on past data, and i don't think this thread ever said that. here, we study and follow price, to understand what has happened, then we also seek to understand the primary drivers thats should most likely be the driving factor and stimulating the market(a lack of which can show divergence, and if there is no trend, we are probably in a market making range) and we can get confirmation by seeing when hit in 1 direction (we do not trade news here just to be clear, but how price moves after news tells us how the market is like), how price responds and take the orders, a.k.a liquidity and market depth, but as retail, we have to guestimate from price action, then we enter positions and manage risk as per the mo outlined here. the reason why jackson hole is making the market so jittery is because it has alot of fundamental information which can lead to market environment change, thats why we see gbpusd going for the stops up there since before jackson hole, dealers net long by the COT report would want to square more positions down or get a good position and protect exposure. jackson hole is a huge wildcard here and that makes everyone jittery, especially those very exposed.

you should watch some of the older documentaries of how pit traders trade and what the emotion is like when orders come in,it should show on the candle sticks through the speed of the move and how illiquid to 1 side the market is,that was when i finally understood the message behind price action.

the main thing is the management of the position, that one is the one that is profitable.

the thing i have with back testing is this, it does not show the mood of the markets through fundamental data and news release, so we do not understand the exact conditions which the market was trading in, so it can get misleading, that is strategies which are profitable and curve fitted without understanding market conditions and stimulus.

ever wonder why dealers or market makers can survive nearly all market conditions? because they have excellent position management skills.
  • #55,393
  • Aug 27, 2016 1:11am Aug 27, 2016 1:11am
Hi ALL

Inserted Video


Happy weekend.

RGds

Inserted Video
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,394
  • Edited 1:50am Aug 27, 2016 1:26am | Edited 1:50am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} thats where what you say might not be totally right about basing decisions on past data, i don't just base my decision on past data, and i don't think this thread ever said that. here, we study and follow price, to understand what has happened, then we also seek to understand the primary drivers thats should most likely be the driving factor and stimulating the market(a lack of which can show divergence, and if there is no trend, we are probably in a market making range) and we can get confirmation by seeing when hit in 1 direction (we do...
My friends, i am so very sorry dragged everyone thru this.

I asked for a little more rope. because long time ago, there was a man, an old man by the call sign of slow something.
He was in Dutchangels's year book.
Was a nice old man.

Many not know, long time ago when i was nearing 300+ pages, i think.
Dutchangel and mamood grouped the traders together and surprised me with a yearbook about who was following the thread.
She published a very nice year book profiling some 50 traders.

I was hoping that it was him found his way and came back help some others slong.
He was also a Lee fan, if i remember correctly.

Unfortunately is not him.
maybe i am getting very soft already.

Anyway i think i gave enough rope already.
This chaps's mo is robotic using open prices on EOD data.
Thats why he thinks today is Friday, because he just received his EOD( end of day data ) and probably was doing his reads.
this is a non trader, i think. He forgets i am a Pro.

Nevermind we move on.

regards
  • #55,395
  • Aug 27, 2016 1:29am Aug 27, 2016 1:29am
Quoting RelaxRay
Hi ALL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ue8RSDMZVOQ Happy weekend. RGds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6W6y7YhHdVE
I am ok , my friend.


regards
  • #55,396
  • Aug 27, 2016 1:34am Aug 27, 2016 1:34am
Quoting fti
{quote} My friends, i am so very sorry dragged everyone thru this. I asked for a little more rope. because long time ago, there was a man, an old man by the call sign of slow something. He was in Dutchangels's year book. Was a nice old man. I was hoping that it was him found his way and came back help some others slong. He was also a Lee fan, if i remember correctly. Unfortunately is not him. maybe i am getting very soft already. Anyway i think i gave enough rope already. This chaps's mo is robotic using open prices on EOD data. Thats why he...
Inserted Video




No drag, dont mention. Is fine.
Nice hazy Saturday here.

Logging off now, just on for abit to post and read my journal for abit.
Hv a good weekend.

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,397
  • Aug 27, 2016 1:50am Aug 27, 2016 1:50am
Quoting fti
{quote} My friends, i am so very sorry dragged everyone thru this. I asked for a little more rope. because long time ago, there was a man, an old man by the call sign of slow something. He was in Dutchangels's year book. Was a nice old man. Many not know, long time ago when i was nearing 300+ pages, i think. Dutchangel and mamood grouped the traders together and surprised me with a yearbook about who was following the thread. She published a very nice year book profiling some 50 traders. I was hoping that it was him found his way and came back...
Don't worry man, but I would ask you to just let go and relax, after all you have to let them experience the market for themselves then they will understand your lesson you wrote here, if they really are interested in learning your method, they will eventually learn it, either from here, or directly from the market.

though this I think relates to the emporer moth story, you can't walk their path for them. Just like the AOW mindset, unless they been dealt a curve ball, they not gonna learn how to deal with it effectively, so just let them go and experience it for themselves.

So tbh, I think the bb game will help, probe their true nature, for better or worse, if their mindset break, at least it's in the game, not real money,because its whether one day they got dealt a hard problem by the market(real money on the line) or you simulate for them(no real money on the line), those that survive, probably will trade more risk adjusted too.
  • #55,398
  • Aug 27, 2016 2:35am Aug 27, 2016 2:35am
Hi Fti

I post a chart and then you say...

It's called: "The week that was"

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Time hides Nothing
  • #55,399
  • Aug 27, 2016 2:38am Aug 27, 2016 2:38am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} When you talk about someone, you make it personal. Challenge my method, idea, system. We can have a civil debate. Now, you claim I make assumptions. I make no assumptions. Yes, when you give something a name ( support, supply, trend, etc...), you are creating a mirage. When I draw a line at the high, it is fact, at the time. There will either be a new high or there won't. Not 50/50. Open to learn what I can. Please tell me what you believe to be inaccurate. Yes, retail markets are "fictional". Many of us play in that sandbox. We are...
Hello Fti and Thread Contributors/ Followers,

It has been an interesting discussion because it is giving some reflection. At the moment, as far as I am concerned, TwoSlow set of pillars looks rather contradictory. Still, when and how many Highest Open, Lowest Open during 24/5. How often SL is triggered. How often BE+1, +5 turned to be negative due to spreads movements, e.g., on market news or sentiments. Probabilities or not, 50/50 or not... The system and mindset suggested, are not they inconsistent?

Well, in retrospective, yesterday, I would have shorted U/Y at 15.03, then longed at 15.33, then again shorted at 17.03, etc., Higherst Open H1 of the Day, Lowest Open M30 of the Day. The same 15.00 GMT was either highest or lowest. I would have become a rich man yesterday using a smart system. But I am not... I did not apply the smart system but made some pips along the moves. I did not listen to prediction that U/Y would go to 102.000 level after FED speech possibly hinting to rate rise expectation. Very logically, the sentiment move price high (take Stops higher), then low to Support 100.00 and take Stops there, and only thereupon to target 102.00.
What I did was a position management (mentioned by Cookie Monstra). I was neither rigid nor predictive. And my learning path is far to go to the level of FTI or, e.g., MaMood. Remember him making more than 50% of deposit a day.

Maybe it is me who is Too Slow since I have to work a lot more on the Mindset, MO, make the Ants work to be very nimble and adaptive to market changes, her flow as well as to keep STEADY AS SHE GOES.

That is where I am on Saturday morning.

Have a nice week-end!
Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #55,400
  • Aug 27, 2016 2:46am Aug 27, 2016 2:46am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Don't worry man, but I would ask you to just let go and relax, after all you have to let them experience the market for themselves then they will understand your lesson you wrote here, if they really are interested in learning your method, they will eventually learn it, either from here, or directly from the market. though this I think relates to the emporer moth story, you can't walk their path for them. Just like the AOW mindset, unless they been dealt a curve ball, they not gonna learn how to deal with it effectively, so just let them...
yes , understood.
sometimes i still have wishful thnking to develop the best.

regards
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