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  • #141
  • Aug 23, 2016 7:37pm Aug 23, 2016 7:37pm
One to watch near 26.40

SLW (silver miner)(watch silver & gold charts):
current stock price = 28.50

Call Spread:
Buy Oct16 26 Call >>3.35
Sell Oct16 31 Call >> .95
Total Cost = $240
Max Profit = $260 (with stock returning to recent highs)
ROI = 108%

***Both strikes will be different if price falls near 26.40 (buy approx. 2-2.50 ITM)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #142
  • Aug 23, 2016 9:39pm Aug 23, 2016 9:39pm
Quoting srt
Low cost trade. AUY (gold miner) (current price = 5) Call spread: Buy Oct16 4 Call >>1.10 Sell Oct16 5.5 Call >>.25 Total Cost = $85 Max Profit = $65 (ROI= 76.5%) Break Even = 4.85 ***Might watch when/if stock nears 4.00-4.50 ***Not the best looking chart but I think gold chart still looks OK for the bulls. {image}
Ironically, this is one of the fellows I looked at last year when gold bottomed out, and I researched the crap out of gold miners. Shoulda coulda woulda at the uber lows (sadly passed on it for some reason), but still a decent play even now ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #143
  • Aug 23, 2016 9:48pm Aug 23, 2016 9:48pm
Quoting srt
One to watch near 26.40 SLW (silver miner)(watch silver & gold charts): current stock price = 28.50 Call Spread: Buy Oct16 26 Call >>3.35 Sell Oct16 31 Call >> .95 Total Cost = $240 Max Profit = $260 (with stock returning to recent highs) ROI = 108% ***Both strikes will be different if price falls near 26.40 (buy approx. 2-2.50 ITM) {image}
Got 'er on my list (good setup) ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #144
  • Aug 24, 2016 2:54pm Aug 24, 2016 2:54pm
Quoting srt
One to watch near 26.40 SLW (silver miner)(watch silver & gold charts): current stock price = 28.50 Call Spread: Buy Oct16 26 Call >>3.35 Sell Oct16 31 Call >> .95 Total Cost = $240 Max Profit = $260 (with stock returning to recent highs) ROI = 108% ***Both strikes will be different if price falls near 26.40 (buy approx. 2-2.50 ITM) {image}
Reached 26.40 area today on strong sell-off but I'll wait a bit as I think silver will drop to 17.90-18 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Silver.png Size: 40 KB
  • #145
  • Aug 24, 2016 3:01pm Aug 24, 2016 3:01pm
Watchlist for a buy:

OPK (Opko)
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  • #146
  • Aug 25, 2016 7:15pm Aug 25, 2016 7:15pm
Quoting srt
Watchlist for a buy: OPK (Opko) {image}
I'm liking that one ... . A basic summary of what's going on: http://seekingalpha.com/article/4001...ad-opko-health
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #147
  • Aug 25, 2016 7:18pm Aug 25, 2016 7:18pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Reached 26.40 area today on strong sell-off but I'll wait a bit as I think silver will drop to 17.90-18 area. {image}
The whole precious metals complex off a bit, so it's kind of a "pick your poison" moment. I looked at the usual suspects: GDX, GDXJ, but also screened for high IV and looked for gold miners to surface: HL, KGC, AUY are at the top of the IV heap ... . Naturally, don't want to go overboard.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #148
  • Aug 25, 2016 7:23pm Aug 25, 2016 7:23pm
Today:

Bought to cover YELP Sept 16th 35/38 short strangle for a $25/contract net profit. The short call side was tested from the git-go, and I rolled the put side up a couple of times to capture some additional credit. Bailing here for a small profit is better than working a loser ... .

Bought to cover TEVA Sept 16th 42/47.5 short put vertical at 50% max profit (net: $28/contract). I was going to let this hang out there as long as possible, but then the Hill-Dawg had to open her big pie hole about Epi-Pens ... . I never took heat on this trade, but didn't want to "invite heat," either ... .

Opening: AKS Covered Call: Bought shares at 4.60; sold the Oct 21st 5 call; 4.29 db; $71 max profit (if called away at $5); 16.5% ROC. It was either this or the pricier X ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #149
  • Edited 8:00pm Aug 25, 2016 7:44pm | Edited 8:00pm
JCP (JCPenny):

***CEO bought 50,000 shares today. ($500,000)
stock price = $10

Plan #1:

Call Spread:
Buy Oct16 8 call>> 2.08
Sell Oct16 10 call>> .64
Total Cost = $144
Max profit = $56 (not much but stock doesn't need to rise @ all to make full profit)
ROI = 38.9%

Plan #2:

Call Spread:
Buy Oct16 9 call>>1.26
Sell Oct16 11 call>>.26
Total Cost = $100
Max Profit = $100
ROI = 100%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JCP.png Size: 37 KB
  • #150
  • Aug 25, 2016 7:55pm Aug 25, 2016 7:55pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I'm liking that one ... . A basic summary of what's going on: http://seekingalpha.com/article/4001...ad-opko-health
Followed this company for a long time. Should have held the first time I bought around $6. CEO(Dr. Frost)(very large shareholder) sold his previous company to TEVA for billions.
  • #151
  • Aug 26, 2016 5:14pm Aug 26, 2016 5:14pm
TWLO Sept 16th 41/49 short put vert. This thing's a roller coaster. Sold the 41 long put leg of this spread today for a small profit and rolled the 49 down and out to the Oct 7th 46.5 for an additional .76 ($76)/contract credit to give the thing a little more room to work. It also isn't that liquid, so dumping the long put in profit will make any rolling I need to do easier. Premium's beaucoup juicy ... .

Opening: HL (gold miner) covered call. Bought shares at 5.82; sold the Oct 21st 6 call; whole package: 5.35; $65 max profit (12.1% ROC). This had the highest IV out of a trio that appeared in my screens (AUY, KGC, and HL).

Opening: Sold XME Oct 7th 24.5 put for a .60 ($60)/contract credit.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #152
  • Aug 26, 2016 5:20pm Aug 26, 2016 5:20pm
Quoting srt
JCP (JCPenny): ***CEO bought 50,000 shares today. ($500,000) stock price = $10 Plan #1: Call Spread: Buy Oct16 8 call>> 2.08 Sell Oct16 10 call>> .64 Total Cost = $144 Max profit = $56 (not much but stock doesn't need to rise @ all to make full profit) ROI = 38.9% Plan #2: Call Spread: Buy Oct16 9 call>>1.26 Sell Oct16 11 call>>.26 Total Cost = $100 Max Profit = $100 ROI = 100% {image}
In spite of the fact that I basically hate this company and their stores, I've played this little bugger off and on either as a premium selling play (short straddle) or as a covered call from below (one of my wife's picks in late 2015/early '16; rode it from 7 and hopped off the merry-go-round at 11; nice job, honey!). Liking those directional plays, too ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #153
  • Aug 26, 2016 5:24pm Aug 26, 2016 5:24pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Followed this company for a long time. Should have held the first time I bought around $6. CEO(Dr. Frost)(very large shareholder) sold his previous company to TEVA for billions.
That's one I'll have to look at just selling naked puts in as a precursor to a covered call (if I can get something decent for them below current price). Will have to piddle with it a bit ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #154
  • Aug 28, 2016 6:01pm Aug 28, 2016 6:01pm
Here's my TradingView doppelganger's High IV underlyings, sector ETF, and broad-market ETF list for the beginning of the week: https://new.tradingview.com/chart/RI...-OPTIONS-8-28/

In a nutshell: No surprise, gold and/or miners and O&G is where the majority of the IV is at, although a couple of biotechs top the list ... . And there's an "Olympics are Over" play to be had in EWZ (the Brazil ETF).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #155
  • Aug 29, 2016 6:15pm Aug 29, 2016 6:15pm
Rolled TWLO Oct 7th 46.5 to Oct 21st 46 for an additional .76 credit. This is probably what I should have done in the first instance, since the weeklies are just butt ugly wide ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #156
  • Aug 30, 2016 8:10pm Aug 30, 2016 8:10pm
Covering: RIGL covered call. In for a 1.75 debit; out for a 2.43 credit here on this pop, netting $67.50/100 shares (38.6% ROC).

Opening: ZIOP covered call. Bought shares at 5.27; sold the Oct 21st 6 call; 4.82 debit; $118 max profit (24.5% ROC).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #157
  • Aug 30, 2016 8:17pm Aug 30, 2016 8:17pm
Today's Top IV Lists

Attached Image


Since I'm already somewhat nipple deep in gold (GDX, CDE, AUY (in a trade), IAG) and petro (SDRL, WFT, WLL (in a trade), CHK (in a trade), NE (in a trade)), I'll probably focus on GNW (financial), GLNG (solar), VRX (biotech; oh, no, not again), PSTG (semiconductor), and POT (basic materials/ag) for possible plays ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #158
  • Sep 2, 2016 6:01pm Sep 2, 2016 6:01pm
Covering TWLO Oct 21st 46 short put for a 2.95 debit.

Here's the full chain:

Sell to Open: Sept 16th 41/49 short put vert for a 1.37 credit
Rolling: Sept 16th 49 short put to the Oct 7th 46.5 for a .70 credit
Closing: Sept 16th 41 long put for a .68 credit
Rolling: Oct 7th 46.5 short put to the Oct 21st 46 for a .76 credit
Closing: Oct 21st 46 short put for a 2.95 debit.

Net Profit: $45/contract (after fees/comms)

Glad to be out of that little fella. So illiquid ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #159
  • Sep 5, 2016 1:54pm Sep 5, 2016 1:54pm
AMD Covered Call or Naked Short Put

My "guess" is that AMD will not hold onto this level (I briefly considered going "monied" with the short call with the covered call setup, selling the 7 strike instead of the 8). However. implied volatility is fairly high here (64.6%), and my mechanical approach to most of these setups is basically to "ditch the guessing" and pull the trigger; price will go where it goes ... .

Covered Call Metrics:
Buy 100 Shares at 7.51
Sell Oct 21st 8 Call
Whole Package: 6.93 db (off hours; 6.93 will be my cost basis in the stock)
Max Profit: $107 (if called away at 8)
ROC%: 15.4%

Notes: As an alternative, I looked at selling a put in the Oct 21st expiry below current price. The Oct 21st 7 short put, for example, currently offers up .54 ($54) in premium at the mid. The notion there would either be to (a) keep the premium if AMD finishes above $7 at expiry; (b) look to be put the stock at $7 if it doesn't; or (c) roll the short put down and out for additional credit if price breaks $7. Anything below the $7 strike in the Oct 21st expiry won't offer you much premium at the moment (e.g., the 6 strike offers .25 at the mid, which approaches "not worth it"). At NY open, I'll probably just "flip a coin" as to whether I go with the naked put or the covered call.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #160
  • Sep 5, 2016 2:05pm Sep 5, 2016 2:05pm
Top IV stocks/ETF's

A few new names, but in the "same places" (precious metals complex, mining, oil and gas):

NVAX (195.0) (biotech)
RTRX (132.4) (biotech)
GNW (100.3) (financial)
WLL (80.5) (petro)
CLF (76.1) (iron ore/mining)
AG (75.6) (silver miner)
CHF (73.9) (petro)
AKS (70.0) (steel)
EGO (62.7) (gold miner)
VRX (61.9 (biotech)
AMD (61.8) (semicon)
AUY (61.6) (gold miner)

GDX (43.7) (gold miners ETF)
XME (39.2) (mining SPDR)

Notes: I'm in the NVAX as a "spec" (speculative) trade. It's biotech R&D with a pipeline as wide as a drinking straw -- a single RSV vaccine; I won't bore you with the details of the vaccine here; suffice it to say, there are issues with the vaccine that could be resolved either way in Q4, which has made the stock a target for speculative short sellers who are betting on the stock caving hard. RTRX is another company that has Martin Shrkeli fingerprints on it; if I'm going to roll the dice, it'll be on VRX, which is more liquid and has got weeklies. I know that Andrew Left thinks that VRX is a "to 0" play, but I don't think it's dead yet ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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