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Jay's High Probability Setups

  • #341
  • Aug 16, 2016 2:50am Aug 16, 2016 2:50am
Quoting FX-Jay
The next big high probability trade opportunities will be in JPY. A big JPY strength wave is just around the corner. I see: USDJPY at 100.50 as a first step (will reassess further downside once 100.50 is hit) GBPJPY below 130 NZDJPY at 72 CADJPY below 77
USDJPY at 100.50 as a first step DONE

GBPJPY below 130 DONE

NZDJPY at 72 - Today's low is 72.50, and we're currently trading at 72.65, so 65 more pips to go

CADJPY below 77 - Today's low is 77.60, and we're currently trading at 77.85, so 85 more pips to go
  • #342
  • Aug 16, 2016 2:53am Aug 16, 2016 2:53am
Quoting FX-Jay
The next big high probability trade opportunities will be in JPY. A big JPY strength wave is just around the corner.
This was/still is an extremely rewarding setup too, but unlike the GBP / CHF setups, this one didn't take long.
  • #343
  • Aug 16, 2016 2:59am Aug 16, 2016 2:59am
Quoting Rcubic
{quote} Very nice Jay, and very inspiring as usual, a beautiful example of patience, believe and determination. Keep it coming buddy it's a pleasure to see this kind of trading.
Thanks Rcubic for the positive support, I hope I'm being able to help in some way or another.
As I've always stated, if you believe in your setups, just relax and let the market come to you. It's just a matter of time, whether it's hours, days, weeks, or months .. but eventually the profits will be in your pocket. Longer term trading with good MM removes 90% of the stress/emotions in trading.

All the best,
Jay
  • #344
  • Edited 9:42am Aug 16, 2016 9:28am | Edited 9:42am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Hey Hmsr, Yes I still do use these probabilities, and I don't believe I would ever stop doing so. They have become an innate part of every system I am using, whether it is longer term trend trading or short term anti-trend scalps/trades. Best, Jay

Hello FX-Jay,

Regarding reccurrence, it seems that overall the the usefulness of recurrence in the short term is that around 80% of the time a potential transient zone will fail (When considering about 10-20 candles in general). Hence a 4:1 trade, yet some folks on FF studied it and concluded that the further away price moved the less likely price was to hit the potential transient zone(sounds obvious) and the risk to reward was not great.
So do you mind if I ask what edge/benefit this topic provides you? (not looking for details just a few sentences)

Also your, predictions were right, congrats
-HMSR
HMSR
  • #345
  • Aug 17, 2016 8:41am Aug 17, 2016 8:41am
Quoting Hmsr
{quote} Hello FX-Jay, Regarding reccurrence, it seems that overall the the usefulness of recurrence in the short term is that around 80% of the time a potential transient zone will fail (When considering about 10-20 candles in general). Hence a 4:1 trade, yet some folks on FF studied it and concluded that the further away price moved the less likely price was to hit the potential transient zone(sounds obvious) and the risk to reward was not great. So do you mind if I ask what edge/benefit this topic provides...
Hey HMSR,

First, regarding the statement you mentioned (in green): I don't know where you got the 80% figure from. There are thousands upon thousands of settings based on different permutations of TFs, H values, and K vales. Each one yields a different % (no to mention that the stats should be changing day in day out as more data is being added). So the % to start with can be 80 higher, or lower.

Second, concerning the statement in (red): Yes, I do agree. I have spent countless hours with NorthTrader in order to try to prove/dis-prove this. He did a wonderful job job in proving that yes indeed as price moved away, the PTZ was less likely to be hit using solid statistical data.

I have repeated 100 times if not more that this is not a system by itself. Why would I want to take of the trades that pop up? Actually the question is how can one take all the trades given that at every second that are thousands upon thousands of valid setups due to all the ways you can change the settings of your main values.
The green part is already an edge by itself, add to it a sound risk management and you've got yourself a profitable trading system that has probabilities & PTZ as its basis.

Cheers,
Jay
  • #346
  • Edited Aug 18, 2016 12:37am Aug 17, 2016 9:59am | Edited Aug 18, 2016 12:37am
Thanks Jay I realise the answer to my question was already stated in your first post. Nonetheless thanks for your response.

Keep this journal active if you have the time, it will be great follow journey.

-HMSR
HMSR
  • #347
  • Aug 24, 2016 1:37am Aug 24, 2016 1:37am
Hope everyone's ready for the next wave of JPY strength.

This is going to be good

Targets for CADJPY & NZDJPY remain the same (we were just few pips away from the targets last time around, and the market decided to give an extra opportunity for entry)

USDJPY to 99.50 again. I expect a larger move to the downside, but I'll have to re-asses once 99.50 gets cleared.

AUDJPY first target is 76 , followed directly by 75.81 ; I'll re-assess once those are reached (we are pretty close)

GBPJPY once again below 130

Trade smart, watch out for any stop hunt spikes in the other direction, these will be good opportunities to enter (if they do occur)
  • #348
  • Aug 24, 2016 2:54am Aug 24, 2016 2:54am
When do you expect these targets to be met?
HMSR
  • #349
  • Aug 25, 2016 1:22am Aug 25, 2016 1:22am
Quoting Hmsr
When do you expect these targets to be met?
As I explained before, I don't put time limits to my medium term trend trades.
I let the market do its thing on its own time, and she always end up coming to my targets like a good girls

This time, the signal is so strong that I expect the targets to be met quite quickly (by next week max).
I very rarely get a bunch of high probability setups at the same time all pointing to the exact same direction (which is JPY strength)

I wish I knew what will be the trigger for this coming big move. I can only assume it'll be something coming out of Jackson Hole.
Or, it may be just a random move out of nowhere as we've seen so many times before; and then the media will find some 'news' to blame it on after it happens
  • #350
  • Aug 25, 2016 1:44am Aug 25, 2016 1:44am
Here's a recommendation for whoever reads this and is planning on buying into the recent GBP strength wave:

I've been probably the most bearish person on GBP and I've been vocal about it since early July.
On August 16th, I got out of all my short GBP positions as previously mentioned (here & here)

Call it luck or whatever you want to call it, but GBP started its strong rebound less than an hour following my post.

I've been on the sidelines since then, and shifted my focus into the JPY strength trades (which finished round 1, and are getting ready for round 2)

I'm not going to be shorting GBP yet (only shorting GBPJPY for now since it requires JPY strength), but I am highly confident that a huge wave of GBP weakness is just around the corner! We will see new lows or at least a re-test of the recent lows in most if not all GBP pairs (highs in the case of EURGBP).

I do not recommend selling yet, but I do recommend being extremely cautious with long positions on GBP;
you're better off missing an opportunity rather than get stuck in an extremely bad trade
  • #351
  • Aug 25, 2016 3:33am Aug 25, 2016 3:33am
very good trader!
congrats for ur results and work!
MY telegram channel: https://t.me/https://t.me/tnavieurusd
  • #352
  • Aug 25, 2016 4:42am Aug 25, 2016 4:42am
FX JAY, I must admit that your way looks extremely interesting to trade forex. Yes, you right when you said mm is very important. I am presently more of a day trader, and I must admit that at times even with good mm, there is still some level of stress. This way will be definitely way less stressful. I will follow you link. As tnavi said, good work and good results. Keep this running, others will follow shortly.
  • #353
  • Aug 25, 2016 8:18am Aug 25, 2016 8:18am
Hello FX-Jay

This article has highlighted the GDP & JPY with the NZD with the potential to react on Friday. Study was done by Goldman Sachs. So I assume this is relevant.

https://www.efxnews.com/story/33845/...-goldman-sachs
HMSR
  • #354
  • Aug 26, 2016 6:54am Aug 26, 2016 6:54am
Quoting tnavi
very good trader! congrats for ur results and work!
Thanks Tnavi for you continuous support
Fell free to share your market view around here at any time
  • #355
  • Aug 26, 2016 6:55am Aug 26, 2016 6:55am
Quoting Superwolf
FX JAY, I must admit that your way looks extremely interesting to trade forex. Yes, you right when you said mm is very important. I am presently more of a day trader, and I must admit that at times even with good mm, there is still some level of stress. This way will be definitely way less stressful. I will follow you link. As tnavi said, good work and good results. Keep this running, others will follow shortly.
Hey Superwolf,

Thanks for your positive message. I sure hope to keep this running, I'm working on optimizing things on a continuous basis. Towards the start of the new year I will have something great & complete to share here that will make so many people happy to say the least

There's nothing better than trading with a clear mind with no pressure on your back, and in order to achieve that, good MM tops the list of things one needs to master.

All the best,
Jay
  • #356
  • Aug 26, 2016 7:01am Aug 26, 2016 7:01am
Quoting Hmsr
Hello FX-Jay This article has highlighted the GDP & JPY with the NZD with the potential to react on Friday. Study was done by Goldman Sachs. So I assume this is relevant. https://www.efxnews.com/story/33845/...-goldman-sachs
That's an interesting read!
I do agree with GS on this one. Even though our reasoning is different, I agree with the end result.
But unlike them I'm also sharing the direction that I believe the market will go no matter what news comes out today

Using my model, GBP & USD should be the weakest currencies while JPY & NZD should be the strongest.
I just need to wait and see if the weakness/strength will happen in a form of a sharp/spiky move or if it will play out little by little over the course of the next few days/weeks
  • #357
  • Aug 26, 2016 7:21am Aug 26, 2016 7:21am
There is only one little thing that is worrying me at the moment.
This may sound funny to some, but here goes:

As a follow up to the equity curve post made in July (here), you can see that yes history did repeat itself as expected and the DD did reverse very nicely.
This time around, however, we are at new equity highs, meaning that if the last 8 months' history is to be taken into account, a new cycle of DD is around the corner.
The history isn't in our favor this time.
The question is, will we have a higher high in equity before the new DD cycle or it's now time?

The reason I use the cycle of my test account's equity curve in trying to predict the next market move is because my entries are very systematic and have nothing to do with emotions, and I have came to the realization that this particular system is extremely accurate in knowing the next move, but quite lagging in predicting the timing.

I'm working on optimizing things little by little, but in the end DD is part of the game. No risk = No reward (1st thing I learned in Finance 101 in uni)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 32 KB
  • #358
  • Aug 26, 2016 7:27am Aug 26, 2016 7:27am
Quoting FX-Jay
I'm working on optimizing things little by little, but in the end DD is part of the game. No risk = No reward (1st thing I learned in Finance 101 in uni) {image}
As part of the system optimization, I'm first tackling the DD issue.
As you can see from the graph below, I'm capping the DD levels at lower %s as time passes.

The ultimate aim is to reach a max peak DD of 25%. I'm doing this gradually & smartly in order not to totally compromise the growth of the account at the expense of decreasing DD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DD.PNG Size: 18 KB
  • #359
  • Aug 26, 2016 8:00am Aug 26, 2016 8:00am
There goes NZD flying

As I always say, the market does what the market got to do, there shouldn't always be a catalyst
  • #360
  • Aug 27, 2016 9:21am Aug 27, 2016 9:21am
Quoting FX-Jay
There is only one little thing that is worrying me at the moment. This may sound funny to some, but here goes: As a follow up to the equity curve post made in July (here), you can see that yes history did repeat itself as expected and the DD did reverse very nicely. This time around, however, we are at new equity highs, meaning that if the last 8 months' history is to be taken into account, a new cycle of DD is around the corner. The history isn't in our favor this time....

What's your myfxbook link?
I see your daily DD are almost as big as your winnings lol but a win is a win I guess or is it a gamble?
I don't call big DD a high probability set up, do you? A high probability trade has very little DD...want to see what that looks like?
I can show you.
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