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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #4,601
  • Aug 24, 2016 3:26pm Aug 24, 2016 3:26pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Aussie looks like it's turtlin at the moment in a southerly direction so may as well load up some more. {image}
Great trades i am with you! As for the confirmations i agree i have some sweet Deals on all gbp pairs and exited to early had to wait for confirmation now all are on sell side.
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  • #4,602
  • Edited 4:35pm Aug 24, 2016 4:12pm | Edited 4:35pm
Quoting teodosy87
{quote} Great trades i am with you! As for the confirmations i agree i have some sweet Deals on all gbp pairs and exited to early had to wait for confirmation now all are on sell side. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Some good trades here and good you're trading without SD indi...

My only humble advice would be to make sure to put a stop in place on all entries. I've noticed on GCHF there's a couple of touch trades that have run offside a bit (without stops on).

Looking at GU, the longs were great (with daily direction) but I can see there's a limit order sell stuck up there. It can work, as it is a supply zone but for swings I do think you want some PA structure.
  • #4,603
  • Aug 24, 2016 4:28pm Aug 24, 2016 4:28pm
A good setup on these swings appears to be something like this USDCHF trade.

We get daily bull engulf then a small pullback on H4 with fresh demand as an entry.... No lower TF would have helped in this situation, it may actually have confused things.

So I don't know at this stage if this is a trend change or just a pullback in a downtrend.

The thing is these setups let you get in with the short term momentum and you can get to safety with almost no drawdown and watch PA unfold. The initial target is at red thumb (about 3:1) but will lock it in and see how this one develops. It could end up being a break even flop but that's fine.
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  • #4,604
  • Aug 24, 2016 4:36pm Aug 24, 2016 4:36pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Some good trades here and good you're trading without SD indi... My only humble advice would be to make sure to put a stop in place on all entries. I've noticed on GCAD there's a couple of touch trades that have run offside a bit (without stops on). Looking at GU, the longs were great (with daily direction) but I can see there's a limit order sell stuck up there. It can work, as it is a supply zone but for swings I do think you want some PA structure.
Well yes sells were triggered on limit order we are in Weekly Supply right now. Looking at example GBPAUD we bounced from weekly demand and that triggered the long side now we are at weekly supply so i expect price to go down. As for the entries i did enter with limit orders but as i said in previous post i had to wait to see where price will show me that will turn and then exit my long positions. I do not like the indicator it clutters my decision a lot.
  • #4,605
  • Aug 24, 2016 4:43pm Aug 24, 2016 4:43pm
What i see in USDCHF for me we just bounced from ignored supply level but the trend is down / at least as i see it/ the bottom side have been tested many times so i do not expect it to have much power but PA will show. I see you are very BIG on Engulfing? what is you criteria for entering a trade what do you look for ?
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  • #4,606
  • Aug 24, 2016 4:46pm Aug 24, 2016 4:46pm
Trade on ignored supply acts as Demand as well as Daily Engulf
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  • #4,607
  • Aug 24, 2016 4:49pm Aug 24, 2016 4:49pm
some on GBPAUD still the move was easy to capture from the bottom, but i started trading this acc on Monday so no data on that.
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  • #4,608
  • Edited 5:14pm Aug 24, 2016 5:01pm | Edited 5:14pm
Quoting teodosy87
{quote} Well yes sells were triggered on limit order we are in Weekly Supply right now. Looking at example GBPAUD we bounced from weekly demand and that triggered the long side now we are at weekly supply so i expect price to go down. As for the entries i did enter with limit orders but as i said in previous post i had to wait to see where price will show me that will turn and then exit my long positions. I do not like the indicator it clutters my decision a lot.
Oh I don't want to knock your trading. I've seen plenty of successful traders trade directly off zones in advance with limit orders and is still the textbook method of S&D trading (see Batus on Simon's thread for some cracking examples).

I can only say from the years I've been watching the market through S&D eyes that I have done better when I can get into a confirmed higher TF direction (with at least some shorter timeframe momentum on my side - some PA structure or engulf). It might not be the best way but with swings, there's no need to rush things as they can often run and run once a trend has been set in motion.

Those GBP longs were great examples as you can see where the market wanted to go and can join in with the flow of the market.

With limit orders, you're always going against the trend (at least on a short term basis) so there's an element additional risk. The zone might not hold. Or it could spike the zone and then reverse.
  • #4,609
  • Aug 24, 2016 5:08pm Aug 24, 2016 5:08pm
Quoting teodosy87
What i see in USDCHF for me we just bounced from ignored supply level but the trend is down / at least as i see it/ the bottom side have been tested many times so i do not expect it to have much power but PA will show. I see you are very BIG on Engulfing? what is you criteria for entering a trade what do you look for ? {image} {image}
Well the current criteria (for swings) is to glance at Monthly/Weekly to get a feel for where we are and then take a good inspection on Daily.

If I can see something of interest, like a solid trend with space... or a fresh D1 demand or supply form at a place of interest, then would drop to H4 and see if there's a pullback and an engulf entry to get involved.

In the case of USDCHF it's pretty tightly range bound on the daily but the solid engulf (which now become fresh demand was interesting). Your USDPLN buy was exactly the same thing.
  • #4,610
  • Aug 24, 2016 5:16pm Aug 24, 2016 5:16pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Well the current criteria (for swings) is to glance at Monthly/Weekly to get a feel for where we are and then take a good inspection on Daily. If I can see something of interest, like a solid trend with space... or a fresh D1 demand or supply form at a place of interest, then would drop to H4 and see if there's a pullback and an engulf entry to get involved. In the case of USDCHF it's pretty tightly range bound on the daily but the solid engulf (which now become fresh
demand was interesting). Your USDPLN buy was exactly the same thing. ...
Hi c12 you said you used h1/m30 with m15/m5 ... what i was looking at doing was looking at h1 zones and trading them of off h5 purely just of engulfs within that hourly zone on m5 is that what you done or ? ...
  • #4,611
  • Aug 24, 2016 5:26pm Aug 24, 2016 5:26pm
Quoting nathzcinco
{quote} Hi c12 you said you used h1/m30 with m15/m5 ... what i was looking at doing was looking at h1 zones and trading them of off h5 purely just of engulfs within that hourly zone on m5 is that what you done or ? ...
Oh yeah, I used to trade H1 zones and use M5 PA (sometimes M1)... It was the way most of us were taught via Redsword11 (Price is Everything). Definitely a valid strategy.

However,if you take a look at EU on the H1.. Noticed the two H1 zones (upper and lower) I've highlighted some PA in yellow boxes.

Would M5 have helped in these situations? Would M5 have added additional noise or clarified things? Would M30/M15 been clearer or was H1 PA good enough for entry?

These days (if scalping) I'd tend to use M5 as engulfs to bring me in direction of the H1 move with H1 confirmation (not necessarily when price was inside the H1 zone)... if this makes sense.
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  • #4,612
  • Edited 5:48pm Aug 24, 2016 5:36pm | Edited 5:48pm
Say if I pull up M5 and scroll back to the H1 upper zone area.

In this case, the M5 PA at the top within yellow box was good .. but nothing you couldn't also see on M15/M30 or H1 or even H4.

I've highlighted red arows as to how I would use M5 pullback-engulfs as entries on this chart.
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  • #4,613
  • Aug 24, 2016 5:46pm Aug 24, 2016 5:46pm
Here's H4, same boxes. same zones.
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  • #4,614
  • Aug 25, 2016 3:53am Aug 25, 2016 3:53am
currently all gbp pairs are going strong i have sell on most of them. this is CBPCHF fisrt 2 entried were not pinpointed will change that in the future. I also have a good buy trade on EURGBP .
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  • #4,615
  • Aug 25, 2016 3:56am Aug 25, 2016 3:56am
unfortunatelly on EURNZD sl got hit i was expecting price to return cause we have ignored demand that turns in to a supply, next time will change the SL accordingly.
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  • #4,616
  • Aug 25, 2016 6:58am Aug 25, 2016 6:58am
EG M30

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  • #4,617
  • Aug 25, 2016 7:03am Aug 25, 2016 7:03am
Quoting mrhb30jr
EG M30 {image}
Very good trade!
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  • #4,618
  • Aug 25, 2016 7:11am Aug 25, 2016 7:11am
Quoting teodosy87
{quote} Very good trade! {image}
Nice trade Teo.... late entry on EG but still ok bro ..
  • #4,619
  • Aug 25, 2016 7:15am Aug 25, 2016 7:15am
Quoting mrhb30jr
{quote} Nice trade Teo.... late entry on EG but still ok bro ..
Well good thing is to be in it, still not every time is possible to enter at the tip still i follow your trades and i really like what i see pure professional! We might have some good down move on EG righ now ...
  • #4,620
  • Aug 25, 2016 7:23am Aug 25, 2016 7:23am
Quoting teodosy87
{quote} Well good thing is to be in it, still not every time is possible to enter at the tip still i follow your trades and i really like what i see pure professional! We might have some good down move on EG righ now ...
I would like to see EG more Higher or possibility back to the supply area .... but who knows ..???
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