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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,361
  • Aug 24, 2016 4:59pm Aug 24, 2016 4:59pm
Quoting inuit
ego, for me, is most hardest to crack, it sneeks in slowly, and then strangle...
yes, ego is very strong motivator for success.
when deminishing returns sets in it becomes most dangerous enemy.
creepy huh?

regards
  • #55,362
  • Aug 24, 2016 5:02pm Aug 24, 2016 5:02pm
@ slow.
in thread please.

You use opening as benchmark.
The question is do you understand the significance of opening price in the OTC environment?
Is different from exchange traded opening.

The function is similar but the mechanics is very different.


regards
  • #55,363
  • Aug 24, 2016 5:17pm Aug 24, 2016 5:17pm
Inserted Video
  • #55,364
  • Edited 5:32pm Aug 24, 2016 5:19pm | Edited 5:32pm
Quoting fti
{quote} yes, ego is very strong motivator for success. when deminishing returns sets in it becomes most dangerous enemy. creepy huh? regards
Its greepy that you know all allready���� shows some experience..
  • #55,365
  • Aug 24, 2016 5:32pm Aug 24, 2016 5:32pm
Quoting inuit
{quote} Its greepy that you know all allready����
eeeer i don't know all.
just have a little experience only.

mostly i learn from sifus when i young.
then i learn again when i slap myself. "eeeer why you do that?naughty?"

regards
  • #55,366
  • Aug 24, 2016 5:46pm Aug 24, 2016 5:46pm
lol not so litle, im honored you take time to reply me. know all, i meant market wice of cource🙏
  • #55,367
  • Aug 24, 2016 5:55pm Aug 24, 2016 5:55pm
Quoting inuit
lol not so litle, im honored you take time to reply me. know all, i meant market wice of cource��
likewise
bottoms up tea.

regards
  • #55,368
  • Edited 7:11pm Aug 24, 2016 6:44pm | Edited 7:11pm
Quoting fti
{quote} you can see his training? eeeer was top of the hill performer when hungry, fortune changed his mindset. anyway, his strangle, put leg rot was killing him, mismanaged by ego. If someone had manipulated, engaged no short rules, he might had been saved. But is hard trade against acts of god with ego. regards
wouldn't a credit collar work better? At least to stop bleeding and buy time to rectify problem after the negative swing momentum fizzles off, which might be a few months, and in doing so, might as well let the market pay you for holding the position while lowering basis using credit, then when problem blows over, can slowly reaverage the spot itself to lower average cost to get out of position.
  • #55,369
  • Aug 24, 2016 8:27pm Aug 24, 2016 8:27pm
Quoting fti
@ slow. in thread please. You use opening as benchmark. The question is do you understand the significance of opening price in the OTC environment? Is different from exchange traded opening. The function is similar but the mechanics is very different. regards
Lines in sand.
Waves come in.
Waves come out.
Further in.
Further out.
Mark the line.
Catch the wave.
Ride it as long as you can.

There is no significance.
A moment in time.
A place in space.
Nothing more.
Nothing less.
All else is a mirage.
The mind somethings sees non-existent things.
Do not tell tales.

Cheers Mate
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #55,370
  • Aug 24, 2016 9:36pm Aug 24, 2016 9:36pm
Quoting fti
{quote} yes you are so right. That was why i was thinking about creating the matches game for Alexandria. Help get some feel of prices flow and to develop strategic responses. Old horses dreams. pain managing, i only get steal sleep when pain is controlled. So sleep time become irregular. yes, will do some after i feed this machine some food. regards

Noted, maybe, can tell stories?

Some jazzy pain relief.
Inserted Video



for the rest of us, to soldier on - if need.
Inserted Video



Rgds


I may be away for a few, find that updating my journal thread.... and some chit chat taking quite abit of time away. Hence, till I get back rhythm, need to be in isolation ward. Oops. I mean in my zone.
Will be here, just lurking.


Take care
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,371
  • Aug 25, 2016 12:53am Aug 25, 2016 12:53am
Hi FTI,

When time and opportunity permits, could you elaborate more on;

"When bear, stay thinking bear"
"is it going down, is it going down"
never, "oh i see up pattern"

While reading the thread, I saw this came up a few times, but always touch and go.
I mean, after all, it sounds easy and a simple concept.. but in detail and practise it is much more complex.

tactic to supplement; not limiting,
1) if going down - continue sell @ time window &/ price zones
2) if not going down OR sideways - square/ease
3) if going up fast HH HL - square all?

but in my limited experience, this is best used to ride the trend, and is much harder to .."use" in wide ranging areas or congestion zones.

Am I missing any angle?

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,372
  • Aug 25, 2016 2:10am Aug 25, 2016 2:10am
Quoting fti
{quote} Hi All, sorry guys, OT for a mom there. @ MickD, Your reading of the MM is mostly right, for the example I posted. The 16 lots attack was a decision , derived that the momentum of the swing towards the support. There is no logical mathematics for that, except that it was a decision for a quick and final attack sequence . (note that the my net available exposure can be only 20 for this example. 4 was used and 16 is the residue unused). Notice that the high exposure was not tolerant of stay in the market, and is used to forage for "foreign...

hi ray, just my opinion on this, i think the answer you looking for is in this picture. the rescue into attack might be one scenario which illustrates the if bear, stay bear, but now is upmove, so i wait. look at the entry frequency of attack vs rescue.
  • #55,373
  • Aug 25, 2016 3:39am Aug 25, 2016 3:39am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi ray, just my opinion on this, i think the answer you looking for is in this picture. the rescue into attack might be one scenario which illustrates the if bear, stay bear, but now is upmove, so i wait. look at the entry frequency of attack vs rescue.
Hi Cookie,

Noted - thanks. This pic is a good reminder for gameplay in terrain.

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,374
  • Edited 4:49am Aug 25, 2016 4:14am | Edited 4:49am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Lines in sand. Waves come in. Waves come out. Further in. Further out. Mark the line. Catch the wave. Ride it as long as you can. There is no significance. A moment in time. A place in space. Nothing more. Nothing less. All else is a mirage. The mind somethings sees non-existent things. Do not tell tales. Cheers Mate
OM goodness, i find grave difficulty talk to you.
Please try to vacate your mirage, and don't forget pay the rent.
Please get in touch with these peeps asap.

https://www.imh.com.sg/

goodluck
  • #55,375
  • Aug 25, 2016 11:11am Aug 25, 2016 11:11am
Quoting fti
{quote} you can see his training? eeeer was top of the hill performer when hungry, fortune changed his mindset. anyway, his strangle, put leg rot was killing him, mismanaged by ego. If someone had manipulated, engaged no short rules, he might had been saved. But is hard trade against acts of god with ego. regards
from the mock sparring with you as MM last time + his vid, i have the main outlines. rough pictures. but as retails, is nice knowing only. as no need back office and small funds + no alternative access venues, no clients, no need market make and no big frens to tap in to benchmark. only fren is broker and he knows my blotter 100%

where have they got time to think abt fibo skew in that bloody pit? i could only stand and admire their lightning reflexes. truely, we have one amongst us and thank god for bring you & us together here
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #55,376
  • Edited 9:52pm Aug 25, 2016 6:43pm | Edited 9:52pm
Quoting Jacque
{quote} where have they got time to think abt fibo skew in that bloody pit? i could only stand and admire their lightning reflexes. truely, we have one amongst us and thank god for bring you & us together here

in pits, the skews already habit. some have que shits in their pockets or can consult laptops located at their own booths.
now can have handhelds. they are on all sorts, few knows about fibo.
some of the traders use ear, listen for the intensity of agression in the pits.
some like nic, sits at booth onphone with their office. signal to orderfillers do the filling of the trades.
To destress , we can walk into the pits and do our own shouting and fingerings.
The outer ring, is where professional orderfillers stands. Can fill orders for anyone and give up the trades in settlements by assignment "give up trades" to specific call signs.

Oh, there is back office settlements for every individual trader in the pit, also assigned limits of positions(corps & locals) and trade arbitration and disputes settlements depts. Also rules compliance and behaviour & price infraction councils. every thing is cctv recorded. every movement and signal can be seen.

serious violations and trader is debadged.

regards
  • #55,377
  • Aug 26, 2016 12:00am Aug 26, 2016 12:00am
Quoting fti
{quote} OM goodness, i find grave difficulty talk to you. Please try to vacate your mirage, and don't forget pay the rent. Please get in touch with these peeps asap. https://www.imh.com.sg/ goodluck
The feeling is mutual.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #55,378
  • Edited 1:49am Aug 26, 2016 1:00am | Edited 1:49am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} The feeling is mutual.
nonono you do not understand.

there is nothing wrong in your post.
but your mind is disillusioned.
you quote that everything is a mirage.
But your mirage is illusional.

i explained and asked you if you understand about your assumptions.
Its very clear to me you never been there.
so you not understand except that you made assumption that is base on your mirage.

If you unable understand and you insist your assumption is correct, then you can learn from the markets.
It does not affect anyone else. Its your own business,
But its wasting my energy and time try explain to you that you never seen or understand.

You say in PM that i hurling you insults.
Why would i want to do that, i don't even know you.
Only i find you disillusioned and if you not want to be helped.
I can accept.
But if you affect others with your illusions then you need be disciplined.
i can only discipline you ego, market will teach you your folly.

If you not need help, you have your own thread.
do what you wish there. you have no standing here.
This is my thread and you disrupting others. already some had blocked you.
your ego don't understand, do you?

Truth is i find nothing wrong with your posts.
Except what you talk about and what you do, is not in sync.
already asked you no hang goat head and sell dog meat.
can think? have brain?
If you try explain, maybe we can discuss.
But if you insist, then ..............
If you really believe everything is a mirage.
You can test go high high , i assure you when you land your mirage stops.


regards
  • #55,379
  • Edited 7:25am Aug 26, 2016 4:08am | Edited 7:25am
a friend asked if i may be too harsh.

Let me show my friends here if my take on his illusion is correct.

His criteria of using the opening price as benchmark for positioning has no logic advantage.
In the OTC markets opening price is prices which dealers test market to uncover orders that had moved over from west coast USA.
This range is actively probed by wellington based on where NY closed.
So normally the opening bar would begin from around where NY closed.
Unless there is market moving news releases during the twilight sector before wellington comes on opening would be around where NY closed.
Mostly large orders, goes timbaktu?

Anyway on charts,OTC markets are deemed continuous not withstanding dealers meal breaks.
If one break the daily chart into hourly there would be opening prices marked but that does not mean any sectors opened or closed markets hourly. Is just markings where market continued on the next hourly bars.
So there is no advantage make benchmarking on closing or opening prices. Or mHL, Or wHL, as decision processes. There is no advantage to be gained. Every price has a 50/50 chance of contination or reversal depending on the state of the markets.

For peeps who are babysitting prices, They watch the behaviour of (read thread) determine decision process.
For those not baby sitting market. Any benchmarked price has 50/50 probabilities.
Some peeps like using robotic criteria determine their entry exit decision processes.
But in reality there is no advantage. Only their preference.
And i have not sighted any studies that had determined advantage by doing so.
Only for peeps not on markets, they may have excuse for decision process.
But where the advantage? Only illusional and self serving.

Does it mean that if a bar closes high, means next day will trade higher?
Only if its in trending, otherwise may congest on range or reverse.
where the advantage?


regards


some peeps like use preferences as benchmark, and during trending seasons they look like so smart.
in congestions and distributions , they dead as a nail, killed by 1000 arrows.
for me, who pacing markets, they just look like robots. gambling robots.
eeer maybe if i wanted sell a back tested, curve fitted black box, any buyers?
  • #55,380
  • Aug 26, 2016 11:51am Aug 26, 2016 11:51am
Quoting fti
Any benchmarked price has 50/50 probabilities.
The market has no probabilities (future).
They market only has statistics (past).
Maybe I am not the one who is disillusioned.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
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