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Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

  • #5,921
  • Aug 24, 2016 7:00am Aug 24, 2016 7:00am
Sometimes Higher Opens turn...GBPUSD...
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Sometimes they don't...GBPHF...
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  • #5,922
  • Aug 24, 2016 7:11am Aug 24, 2016 7:11am
Quoting MichaelG
{quote} Ahhh....the pills Pippy.. Where to start. Which one to take? Did I already take that one? What time is my next one? Now this one is to fix this ailment......but I also have to take this one as well, to offset the side effects of the other one. And I like it that they are different colours.......that helps.....until they change the colour. It all gets a bit confusing sometimes, and I get quite distraught and anxious about it all. But it's all fine and dandy.......because I have a pill for that as well....
Ah, always remember, no matter how tough it may seem, it's only a scratch...
  • #5,923
  • Aug 24, 2016 7:13am Aug 24, 2016 7:13am
TRADE #4

Pair: USDCAD

Position: Short at 1.29368 (H1 Higher Open 1.29368)
SL at 1.29463 (by mistake I took YH)
Risk: 9.5 pips ( 14,69 $)
Entry: Stop order at 1.29368
Exit: by SL at the ask price (1.29358)
Position size: 0.20 lot
Trade duration: 00:18:54
P/L: + 1.0 pips (+1,55 $)
Spread: +/- 2.3 pips

Comments:
- SL in wrong place.

Entry:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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SL moved to BE+:
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SL hit:
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  • #5,924
  • Edited 10:34am Aug 24, 2016 7:48am | Edited 10:34am
Quoting fabiog
I am trying to figure out a method which use HOLO to trade larger tf and requiring less monitor time to trade. First I check some statistics based on daily chart of usdcad. I get this numbers. Friday close (that is also weekly close) is in average 152,79 pips from the highest daily open or the lowest daily open in that week. In 91% the weekly close is more than 50 pips from daily HO or LO In 78% the weekly close is more than 70 pips from daily HO or LO In 67% the weekly close is more than 90 pips from daily HO or LO In 54% the weekly close is more...
You are talking about ''playing the hot hand''...(some on here will know that particular phrase from someone else's playground).

I will tell you what I told TS when we first met. (This is slightly oversimplified but it really needn't be any more than this). A staple of fund trading, one which is left to quietly tick over in the background, the one the Office Junior gets to run, is Daily Return Trading. They take the High and Low of previous day (not Monday, so well spotted) across every major pair. Two lines are drawn. They let price move up through the High and when it comes back through they Sell. They let the price move down through the Low and when it comes back up, they Buy. 1-2-3 on a grand scale.

Now there are obviously subtleties to this - they have ''lesser'' interior lines, a median point, some like cloud dynamics etc - but the basis is true. They go in with the lot size you use when you have millions at your disposal. Every pip buys a Ferrari. They will use weight-of-money techniques alongside order-flow data and move the market the way they want it to move (at the expense of the little fry who get suckered in to Buy when they are looking to Sell). They do it over and over again. This is simple stuff.

Even simpler is the fact that on USD pairs, if the market drops after the UK open, it will, more times than not, rise after the US Open and vice versa.

If you want a steady-Eddie way to trade away from your desk while you work at your ''real'' job, then you are heading in the right direction but just bear in mind that all the info you need is already out there if you can find it.

You are certainly on the right track. HOLO works on all time-frames, as TS has said before.

Before I stop rambling on - well, it is a slow day - I will mention one other method used, that of a follow-cap, where after every bar, the trader will drop the trigger-line to the level of the last closed bar and then trade any breaks backwards through those lines. (Follow above a dropping bar for Buys, Below for Sells). This can be real in-and-out stuff and is used to give new traders a feel of blood on the knife. These quick trades (well, as quick as trading daily bars can be) will obviously have every potential of catching a major turn but mostly they just track along behind price and pick up scraps, like seagulls behind a trawler (image of Eric Cantona flashed before my eyes there).

Scraps maybe but on a Daily tf, those ''scraps'' are substantial and very low risk.

Add-On Edit: Now you got me thinking about it, there's an even simpler version of this Follow-Cap method used, which can bring bigger bang-for-your-buck. That is, the follow-line is placed at the open of the previous bar and that line is traded. Small moves become bigger, big moves buy a house, while the principle remains the same.
  • #5,925
  • Aug 24, 2016 8:44am Aug 24, 2016 8:44am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} You are talking about ''playing the hot hand''...(some on here will know that particular phrase from someone else's playground). I will tell you, what I told TS when we first met. (This is slightly oversimplified but it really needn't be any more than this). A staple of fund trading, one which is left to quietly tick over in the background, the one the Office Junior gets to run, is Daily Return Trading. They take the High and Low of previous day (not Monday, so well spotted) across every major pair. Two lines are drawn. They let price move...
Can you mark that up on a chart?
Thanks
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #5,926
  • Aug 24, 2016 8:44am Aug 24, 2016 8:44am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #5,927
  • Aug 24, 2016 8:46am Aug 24, 2016 8:46am
Demo trade #1

OK, working from home today so can try this method with the H1 open.

Missed earlier chance, but entered on candle A, almost hit SL on candle B and finally went into profit on candle C
Moved SL to BE+1 and stopped out with 1 pip profit.

The purple line shows +5 pip profit location

I think I did this first one right?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HOLO demo trade 1 USDCADM15.png Size: 47 KB
  • #5,928
  • Aug 24, 2016 8:53am Aug 24, 2016 8:53am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} You are talking about ''playing the hot hand''...(some on here will know that particular phrase from someone else's playground). I will tell you, what I told TS when we first met. (This is slightly oversimplified but it really needn't be any more than this). A staple of fund trading, one which is left to quietly tick over in the background, the one the Office Junior gets to run, is Daily Return Trading. They take the High and Low of previous day (not Monday, so well spotted) across every major pair. Two lines...
Yes. A very nice playground. There are a few flowers growing on top of the sludge or something like that. That place is the equivalent of a flower. Like needles in a haystack they can be found on this very site. Thanks for reminding me
It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are - E.E. Cummings
  • #5,929
  • Aug 24, 2016 8:54am Aug 24, 2016 8:54am
Quoting Nostromo
Demo trade #1 OK, working from home today so can try this method with the H1 open. Missed earlier chance, but entered on candle A, almost hit SL on candle B and finally went into profit on candle C Moved SL to BE+1 and stopped out with 1 pip profit. The purple line shows +5 pip profit location I think I did this first one right? {image}
Did you enter short at the highest H1 open?
Yes/No?
Yes = "right".
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #5,930
  • Aug 24, 2016 9:02am Aug 24, 2016 9:02am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} You are talking about ''playing the hot hand''....
Very good stuff LM
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #5,931
  • Aug 24, 2016 9:57am Aug 24, 2016 9:57am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Can you mark that up on a chart? Thanks
Daily Return, or Follow Cap?
  • #5,932
  • Aug 24, 2016 10:04am Aug 24, 2016 10:04am
Quoting Nostromo
Demo trade #1 OK, working from home today so can try this method with the H1 open. Missed earlier chance, but entered on candle A, almost hit SL on candle B and finally went into profit on candle C Moved SL to BE+1 and stopped out with 1 pip profit. The purple line shows +5 pip profit location I think I did this first one right? {image}
Sorry but am I missing something here? Have I OD'd on tea this afternoon? Where is your H1 trigger line? Sorry if I'm being dense...
  • #5,933
  • Aug 24, 2016 10:18am Aug 24, 2016 10:18am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Daily Return, or Follow Cap?
Both
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #5,934
  • Aug 24, 2016 10:25am Aug 24, 2016 10:25am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TooSlow.png Size: 55 KB
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #5,935
  • Aug 24, 2016 10:26am Aug 24, 2016 10:26am
Hi TooSlow
I noticed in another thread you posted a chart showing the folllowing
Attached Image

Care to share the indicator and any info on it? Thanks and happy trading!
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #5,936
  • Aug 24, 2016 10:29am Aug 24, 2016 10:29am
It occurs to me that some may be wondering why no trades after the early one, LM? What's going on? Are we missing something?

Valid questions and they deserve an honest answer.

After my first trade, I posted that there were BreakOuts all over the charts today. Not just your run-of-the-mill kind of stuff - but big, strong, kick sand in your face kind of BreakOuts, virtually right across the board. First warning - such wide-spread moves tell you something is working away under the surface that is big...maybe not quite Moby Dick big but big enough to tip your boat over if it catches you unawares.

Sure, LM but you love 1-2-3 trades, no? Oh yeah, I do - but as I noted...there were tons of them. All over the place. So...if I was tempted, which one to choose? I can usually run a couple at a time easily enough but get to trying to place three or even more at pretty much the same time and you're pushing it. So, again...which one to choose? Well, here's the rub - with so many and not being able to take them all, I took none. Not one. Zero...Purely because it is the Law of Sod The Magnificent, that whatever one I chose, it would lose - the others would win.

There is no logic to this - don't ask me to break it down for you - I can't. Here's the thing...It's gut feeling...something's not right. Simple.

Then as time ticks on, the second warning kicks in and continues the theme. The Breakouts have Breakouts...

When we see those same BreakOuts continuing on, not falling back, then even 1-2-3 trades are going to get you into trouble. There is no safe light at the end of that tunnel, it's Pippy's train coming.

Anyway, you can boil all this down to one phrase: ''When in doubt, stay out...''

Rule #5: There's always another trade...Rule #5a: There's always tomorrow.
  • #5,937
  • Aug 24, 2016 10:29am Aug 24, 2016 10:29am
Quoting mrcreosote
Hi TooSlow I noticed in another thread you posted a chart showing the folllowing {image} Care to share the indicator and any info on it? Thanks and happy trading!
That indicator is from another "galaxy".
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #5,938
  • Aug 24, 2016 10:37am Aug 24, 2016 10:37am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Both
Lol - will do, I opened the door, it's only fair. Will be a bit later on tonight though.
  • #5,939
  • Aug 24, 2016 10:38am Aug 24, 2016 10:38am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Lol - will do, I opened the door, it's only fair. Will be a bit later on tonight though.
No rush, Mate.
Cheers
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #5,940
  • Aug 24, 2016 11:32am Aug 24, 2016 11:32am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TooSlow.png Size: 60 KB
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
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