{quote} Thanks SB, it's nice to know that my memory has not completely failed me (YET)
(I forgot what they are LOL)
It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are - E.E. Cummings
Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
- #5,902
- Aug 24, 2016 2:24am Aug 24, 2016 2:24am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
USDCAD Heads-Up...
- #5,903
- Aug 24, 2016 2:26am Aug 24, 2016 2:26am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Always do whatever's next. | 788 Posts
{quote} Right, had a quick look. Worked through January this year to start with, for Cable (GBPUSD). Obviously I'm not going down into the nitty-gritty of the price movement inside each H4 bar but you are going to have to give H4 trades a fair bit of breathing room. So for the sake of clarity - and because I am not going to be spending a hell of a lot of time on this - here's the numbers. These (very guestimated) figures are for the highs of the trigger-bars, or occasionally when noted, a run across two or three bars which went without much of any...
Maybe you can post a picture later ?
It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are - E.E. Cummings
- #5,905
- Aug 24, 2016 2:31am Aug 24, 2016 2:31am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
EURCAD Went South a bit earlier...
- #5,906
- Aug 24, 2016 2:32am Aug 24, 2016 2:32am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
USDCHF Some potential here...
- #5,907
- Aug 24, 2016 2:37am Aug 24, 2016 2:37am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
Narrow ranges and some...err...''interesting''...behaviour on screen this am. Think I may be letting things develop for a while till the US gets involved.
USDCAD moves into profit though, so fair enough...
USDCAD moves into profit though, so fair enough...
- #5,909
- Aug 24, 2016 2:44am Aug 24, 2016 2:44am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
USDCAD...and we're off...don't you just love this game?!
TRADE #3
Pair: USDCAD
Position: Short at 1.29368 (H1 Lighr Open 1.29368)
SL at 1.29519
Risk: 15.1 pips ( 23,38 $)
Entry: Stop order at 1.29368
Exit: by SL at the ask price (1.29227)
Position size: 0.20 lot
Trade duration: 00:29:09
P/L: + 14.1 pips (21,82 $)
Spread: +/- 2.3 pips
Comments:
- I decided move my SL before bid price hit my +20 pips purple line. I did that because I expected some pullback after such a strong move. Next time maybe will be better partial close my position.
- To trade this method definitely I need broker with tighter spread. At some moments I had spread about 3.0 pips
Pair: USDCAD
Position: Short at 1.29368 (H1 Lighr Open 1.29368)
SL at 1.29519
Risk: 15.1 pips ( 23,38 $)
Entry: Stop order at 1.29368
Exit: by SL at the ask price (1.29227)
Position size: 0.20 lot
Trade duration: 00:29:09
P/L: + 14.1 pips (21,82 $)
Spread: +/- 2.3 pips
Comments:
- I decided move my SL before bid price hit my +20 pips purple line. I did that because I expected some pullback after such a strong move. Next time maybe will be better partial close my position.
- To trade this method definitely I need broker with tighter spread. At some moments I had spread about 3.0 pips
- #5,911
- Edited 7:02am Aug 24, 2016 3:25am | Edited 7:02am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
{quote} Yes, been there done that. Years of education and "education" proven to be useful to know it's not very useful to make decisions at the hard right edge. Its usefulness limits itself to the "educators". I don't like using the word "losing" by the way. I prefer "cost". The cost of doing business. This is business, not gambling
Language is so powerful - we sometimes forget that. The language we hear in our heads in life and as we trade, colours our way of thinking on every decision we make. This is why I previously warned against moaning about ''losing out'' on a +20pip move (negative energy) and forgetting/ignoring the +4pips you did gain (positive energy).
Recent research published shows that if you think of yourself as happy and act as if you are happy, you will become happy. Sounds trivial but it is actually a profound discovery. Like attracts like. The same research showed that if you told a set of students that they had attained a certain performance-level mark and another set of students that they had attained a higher mark, the ones given the higher mark performed better in the tasks given going forward. Both sets of students had been given random results. The results were false - the effects of those results were real.
Tell yourself you are stupid - you will become stupid. No-one likes stupid. He sits in the corner and wears a silly hat. No one invites him to parties.
Practice...unlearn all the crap you ''learned'' elsewhere on your search for The Holy Grail...practice some more. Be they guy who practices that kick 10,000 times. Perfect it. Practice some more.
It's all good.
I am trying to figure out a method which use HOLO to trade larger tf and requiring less monitor time to trade.
First I check some statistics based on daily chart of usdcad.
I get this numbers.
Friday close (that is also weekly close) is in average 152,79 pips from the highest daily open or the lowest daily open in that week.
In 91% the weekly close is more than 50 pips from daily HO or LO
In 78% the weekly close is more than 70 pips from daily HO or LO
In 67% the weekly close is more than 90 pips from daily HO or LO
In 54% the weekly close is more than 110 pips from daily HO or LO
Median = 119,9 pips
I took larger number for above stats. For example if Friday close was 23 pips below HO and 123 pips above LO I took 123 pips.
Next I test simply strategy. I’ll try to catch HO or LO of the week.
If Monday Op> Friday Op - short at the Monday open (reverse for long)
If Tuesday Op> Monday Op – short a the Tuesday Open (reverse for long)
….
If Friday Op> Thursday Op – short at the Friday Open (reverse for long)
Close always on Friday Close. No Sl or TP.
As a result we get five trades every week. All of them close at Friday close.
Overall if we use above strategy we will lose money.
So I test next idea. What if we will not look at last week. We start trading from Tuesday and our reference point will be Monday open.
The rules are the same as in the first case so no SL, no TP, close at Friday Close. Start from Tuesday. 4 trades per week.
We received quite different results:
As you can see there is some potential to further work.
I use Excel for those kind of things. It is time consuming and often some limits. But I will look deeper and if find some interesting I share with you.
My English is far from perfect but I think that you can get some useful info from above text.
First I check some statistics based on daily chart of usdcad.
I get this numbers.
Friday close (that is also weekly close) is in average 152,79 pips from the highest daily open or the lowest daily open in that week.
In 91% the weekly close is more than 50 pips from daily HO or LO
In 78% the weekly close is more than 70 pips from daily HO or LO
In 67% the weekly close is more than 90 pips from daily HO or LO
In 54% the weekly close is more than 110 pips from daily HO or LO
Median = 119,9 pips
I took larger number for above stats. For example if Friday close was 23 pips below HO and 123 pips above LO I took 123 pips.
Next I test simply strategy. I’ll try to catch HO or LO of the week.
If Monday Op> Friday Op - short at the Monday open (reverse for long)
If Tuesday Op> Monday Op – short a the Tuesday Open (reverse for long)
….
If Friday Op> Thursday Op – short at the Friday Open (reverse for long)
Close always on Friday Close. No Sl or TP.
As a result we get five trades every week. All of them close at Friday close.
Overall if we use above strategy we will lose money.
So I test next idea. What if we will not look at last week. We start trading from Tuesday and our reference point will be Monday open.
The rules are the same as in the first case so no SL, no TP, close at Friday Close. Start from Tuesday. 4 trades per week.
We received quite different results:
As you can see there is some potential to further work.
I use Excel for those kind of things. It is time consuming and often some limits. But I will look deeper and if find some interesting I share with you.
My English is far from perfect but I think that you can get some useful info from above text.
- #5,918
- Aug 24, 2016 5:57am Aug 24, 2016 5:57am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Always do whatever's next. | 788 Posts
{quote} Yes, now I am happy that I closed that trade. However I belive the most important thing in trading is your trade managment or risk managment. I think that we have to think in probability way and that is often in conflict with our human nature. If we check what is the probability of series of 9 lower closing bars we get that approx. less than 0,10%. But probability that next bar will close lower is about 50%. My work is to find a method that allow me earn money in the long term. The way of trade managment that will allow me make money in long term. I don't care about single trade.
It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are - E.E. Cummings
- #5,919
- Aug 24, 2016 6:30am Aug 24, 2016 6:30am
{quote} Remember to take your pills mate
Ahhh....the pills Pippy.. Where to start.
Which one to take?
Did I already take that one?
What time is my next one?
Now this one is to fix this ailment......but I also have to take this one as well, to offset the side effects of the other one.
And I like it that they are different colours.......that helps.....until they change the colour.
It all gets a bit confusing sometimes, and I get quite distraught and anxious about it all.
But it's all fine and dandy.......because I have a pill for that as well.
Now I am 60, and on a site like this, I can probably say things like...........Ohhhh.....you have it easy these days. Back in MY day, we had it tough.
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=...0225&FORM=VIRE
- #5,920
- Aug 24, 2016 6:57am Aug 24, 2016 6:57am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Always do whatever's next. | 788 Posts
{quote} Ahhh....the pills Pippy.. Where to start. Which one to take?
Classic. Love it
A good 4 years ahead of me - there's still hope
It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are - E.E. Cummings