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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,281
  • Edited 9:27am Aug 20, 2016 8:46am | Edited 9:27am
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} very simple trade with the trend, using 1,3, 5 attack ration and as once aging I quite you some time back " took profit at overbought/oversold areas market not move in a straight line" catch every wave. I do this too. yes VAR 1attack low value 3 attack medium value 5 attack high value at risk and at this time don't stay too long in market it is just bee sting and go away even one can think what happen just now. move finish the last one will be classic stroke of a trader of a chief. like the knife in a batter .
so rigid meh?
11235 is only minimal most stable mm.
111 is for beginners figure out why its inefficient.
the mo depends on the terrain traversing and state of book foreign cap.
as one becomes experienced, the strategic permutations can become very infinite.
If book is red or in bad shape, you force and you can land in very hard place.

you failed see the strategy. rigid.

regards

don't scale if you do not understand the effects of componding risk curve characteristics.
doubling up risk/martingaling is sure way to poor house.
The reason book is scaled is because we never know if we are correct.

If i know market is going up 100 pips. I just buy in full at 0 and sell at 100.
Thats most efficient. Isn't it. But if one is wrong, sorry lor , you stuck. green zero, House takes all.
I not gambler , sorry, not in markets.
Casino i can gamble.

Try understand cost management in mm.
Any way i never know if markets will be 100 up or down. i am never that clever.I wish i was.
BUT i live with my handicap.

But some people claims they KNOW break that line and it will be 100 up.
sometimes it works. When it no works, many these are in poor house.
I think gambling, no one need to teach, everyone knows.
They should say break that line , has 50% chance it may be 100 up, but even that i dare not concurs.
But i may scale and manage to try see if can be 100 up.

Some times i manage it and 50 up i already squared. with 200 in my pocket. sometimes only 20 in pocket.
So long as is not -50. I am happy.
Next adventure.
How I wish every day, we have 200 pips adventures.
Maybe thursdays?
  • #55,282
  • Aug 20, 2016 8:56am Aug 20, 2016 8:56am
still I am.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #55,283
  • Edited 9:47am Aug 20, 2016 9:32am | Edited 9:47am
Quoting priceaction1
still I am.
thats because you have not seen me do 1111111111 50 squared


regards

ok now let you see.

1mio
1mio
1mio
1mio
1mio
1mio
1mio
1mio
1mio
1mio
50mio
squared

P&L=5pips x 60mio

i shy show you the one that break even 0pips x60 mio. infact lost bro , some traded thru interbro.

or the one 11235 cut loss 2pips x12
  • #55,284
  • Aug 20, 2016 9:34am Aug 20, 2016 9:34am
Quoting fti
{quote} your point is you don't understand ro3k. ok noted. You have choice? Try think deeper. But you choose ONE and forgot about watching the others. "why not only watch the ones who look good, and forget the other 2 pairs" So what makes you so sure you didn't choose the one thats crippled/underperformer? How you know which one is mover? unless you watching them all. then you know who's dancing and who's not. You then choose those you can manage. still cannot see? i begining get confused about what you don't understand? How you know which...
so it is simple said, a comparison, choosing which one dances best?

ruben
  • #55,285
  • Edited 10:34am Aug 20, 2016 10:22am | Edited 10:34am
Quoting priceaction1
ok chief I have one direct question. if I want to know the flow for example for JPY. what other pairs I have to see with USD/JPY is it GBP/jpyandUER/JPY or any other too. best regards
ok, lets say cable is up 50 pips.
euro is up 50 pips.
what must you watch to check market?
both is traded againt the ???
Then you will need check if something is happening to the ??? usd.
then you need see if there is stuff happening to the ??? usd/yen
if nothing, then is a europe/usd event.
There are no rules say which you must check.
You check the ones that moves.

If it move 5 pips then whats there to check?
historically, the movers are normally usd events.
You always watching out for xnormal moves.
Then you try detect which currency is creating the unbalance. then you check charts look for possible technical clues.

i can't tell you what i am watching.
I watch the majors and the crosses and try see if i can see runaway prices.
they run i chase. they stop i straegise try not lose the spreads i just gave away, keep trying improve my position cost.

i don't know how to answer your question. There is no answers.
regards

its not what i watch that makes the pips. Is the managing of my cost and average cost of my positions that makes it.
I have no indicators, I am watching the whole markets. It hippups and i will be try to detemine if i have opportunity catch the runs.
Otherwise i keep making the bid offer differentials until i can detect that is a trend is developing. Then i go 1 way, trend way.
  • #55,286
  • Edited 11:07am Aug 20, 2016 10:38am | Edited 11:07am
Quoting ruben7222
{quote} so it is simple said, a comparison, choosing which one dances best? ruben
nonono is a matter if I can dance the dance, cope with market or if i am flat footed with bias and paralysed.
I

I manage my positions, markets can do whatever they like.
What ever they do i strategise, i cannot tell market what to do.
I have to adjust my positions and costing to markets continueously stay above water.
If MY positions goes underwater i need adjust that it not drowns, that i cannot resurface to square out.

When i am on the wagon I manage my positions and costing squeeze all maket is willing to give.
They stop , i square out check my pockets.

regards

AND i never look back and ask, WHAT IF?

I don't get to choose the dance.
They dance and i try manage dance along with best I can.

Sometimes they dance way over what i can.
I cut loss and live dance again another day.

RULE 1 preservation of capital
RULE 2 preservation of capital
RULE 3 Don't forget rule 1

regards

There's no holy grail methodology.
  • #55,287
  • Aug 20, 2016 11:34am Aug 20, 2016 11:34am
Quoting ruben7222
{quote} no i am still by the ro3k subject you said it is just looking to the 3 pairs, and look which one of the 3 or all 3 pairs are dancing dances whereby i can strategize on. so ro3k is simple said looking to which one is dancing nicely? i am probably still not get it, do i? Ruben
Have you read R3k?
its very complex how one managing system, responding to what the other is doing.
Its not simple at all.
There is no such thing as dancing nice.
They dance and you need have ability to manage your positions to their dance.

One day they dance this way another day they change stance. And you have to cope along with best practise adjusting your positions to the moves. Sometimes they dance is clear, other days you may be scratching head , trying to decipher, what is happening.
BUT you must respond, because you may have exposures.

I suspect you not read R3k nor understood much of this thread.

You are trading the major currencies, you must watch the primary markets charts, then you need watch their derivative secondary markets.
In fact i have on immediate call to 51 charts, including Gold, Brent crude Oil.........................
Also news wire on news and breaking news highlights, when i am trading.

regards
  • #55,288
  • Edited 12:04pm Aug 20, 2016 11:43am | Edited 12:04pm
Quoting fti
{quote} Have you read R3k? its very complex how one managing system, responding to what the other is doing. Its not simple at all. There is no such thing as dancing nice. They dance and you need have ability to manage your positions to their dance. One day they dance this way another day they change stance. And you have to cope along with best practise adjusting your positions to the moves. Sometimes they dance is clear, other days you may be scratching head , trying to decipher, what is happening. BUT you must respond, because you may have exposures....
no indeed probably was searching for a ro3k holy grail answer, or like a huge advantage in trading from it, but i am realising that it is not.

i think i do understand a bit of this thread (maybe my thinking is incorrect, who knows) but the ro3k i need to figure out a little bit more.


i understand that one can have more chart like the oil and gold which can you clues about what is happening, but when you are trading a pair, the only thing that you want to know is what is my pair(s) doing, i think all the info is all in your pair, and what your pair is doing, there you must react on. it is same like news i think, it can be positive for usd, but say USDJPY is still falling.

thanks for your replies

Ruben
  • #55,289
  • Aug 20, 2016 12:18pm Aug 20, 2016 12:18pm
Quoting ruben7222
{quote} no indeed probably was searching for a ro3k holy grail answer, or like a huge advantage in trading from it, but i am realising that it is not. i think i do understand a bit of this thread (maybe my thinking is incorrect, who knows) but the ro3k i need to figure out a little bit more. i understand that one can have more chart like the oil and gold which can you clues about what is happening, but when you are trading a pair, the only thing that you want to know is what is my pair(s) doing, i think all the info is all in your pair, and what...
yes, the minimum you must know is what is your trading instrument doing.
also i like to highlight to you.

For example, The EuroUSDis trading in bullish stance and you are heavily long Euros.
What would you do to your position size , if you received information that there is possible rate hike on USD in the works?
You understand that the more you babysitting the Pair, the more feel you will have of it.

Or you can trade just with sight to chart only. Wondering why trades may be flat for long time, only to discover that every one was sitting on their hands because they all awaiting release of critical economic figures, while you hammered your way in markets wondering, why isn't it moving?

regards
  • #55,290
  • Edited 1:04pm Aug 20, 2016 12:49pm | Edited 1:04pm
Quoting ruben7222
{quote} 'the minimum i must know is what my pair is doing'? you lost me completely here, going with her is what you must do, to understand the dance? Ruben
Oh i just meant to highlight that although one can see lots of information from charts.
Some critical market moving information may not be evidently there, and is horrible have counter swings against you trades and not know what's happening. esp if not took precautions, protect against it.esp if one took the stance to willfully ignore it.

Just that, as one's managing experience expands , there lots more clues, that can help one formulate effective trade size strategies.
Trading isn't just about when to buy and when to sell.
Also how much to buy and sell safely and under what condition to do it in.

regards
  • #55,291
  • Aug 20, 2016 2:28pm Aug 20, 2016 2:28pm
masterpiece, fti
the gambler
the devils apprentice Return Today: na
  • #55,292
  • Aug 20, 2016 5:51pm Aug 20, 2016 5:51pm
Quoting fti
{quote} nonono is a matter if I can dance the dance, cope with market or if i am flat footed with bias and paralysed. I I manage my positions, markets can do whatever they like. What ever they do i strategise, i cannot tell market what to do. I have to adjust my positions and costing to markets continueously stay above water. If MY positions goes underwater i need adjust that it not drowns, that i cannot resurface to square out. When i am on the wagon I manage my positions and costing squeeze all maket is willing to give. They stop , i square out...
When you dance with the market, the markets always leads.
If you try to lead, you get stepped on.

Attached Image
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #55,293
  • Aug 20, 2016 5:54pm Aug 20, 2016 5:54pm
Quoting fti
You are trading the major currencies, you must watch the primary markets charts, then you need watch their derivative secondary markets. In fact i have on immediate call to 51 charts, including Gold, Brent crude Oil......................... Also news wire on news and breaking news highlights, when i am trading. regards
Or you can just watch the price action
And dance with the market.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #55,294
  • Aug 20, 2016 6:02pm Aug 20, 2016 6:02pm
Quoting MyTbo
I can pick the top or the bottom, but I don't know when to enter the attack . I can't enter it too early, since market is too close to my initail entry, in the same time I can't enter it when market has gone a significatn distance from my entry, since the chance to retrace or reverse is greater.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TooSlow1.png Size: 64 KB


When to enter?
Sell at H1 or M30 highest open of the day.
Buy at H1 or M30 lowest open of the day.
Follow the rules.
Bank pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #55,295
  • Aug 21, 2016 12:40am Aug 21, 2016 12:40am
So has anyone been able to actually take what FTI has taught in this thread and use it to start trading full time and making good money?
  • #55,296
  • Aug 21, 2016 2:02am Aug 21, 2016 2:02am
Quoting Bulletproof9
So has anyone been able to actually take what FTI has taught in this thread and use it to start trading full time and making good money?
as a student I so lazy and dumb, what lesson I got and I hold it tightly is only sentence "PRESERVATION OF CAPITAL" and that make my account undestructible, up&down on growing slope.
the gambler
the devils apprentice Return Today: na
  • #55,297
  • Aug 21, 2016 3:49am Aug 21, 2016 3:49am
Quoting Bulletproof9
So has anyone been able to actually take what FTI has taught in this thread and use it to start trading full time and making good money?

Yes, and most of them are just quiet and laying low... living a boring life most of them if not all experienced the highest of highs and the lowest of lows... and few of them realize that a trader's life is lonely.
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #55,298
  • Edited 7:06am Aug 21, 2016 5:56am | Edited 7:06am
Quoting fti
{quote} ....... {image}
How did they work out the correct pivot points for balancing balls-heavier an item on one side then I need to move my pivot closer to that one?
-weight of huge ball on one side balanced by lots of balls on other - unless they super glued it all - hard work that balancing act.

Never seen the Leeson film before excellent lessons what I learnt from it

  1. He bought from one market at a price and his mate in the other market sold it for nice profits for his customers - his customers did not include his bank (at first)
  2. He did not care about his customers - he wanted the orders and business
  3. He used his trading floor guys to set up a dummy for peeps to think he was going one way big for him to then go the other - he had a strategy for doing it with his peeps in advance so he got better prices for nice profits - he was considered informed and so when he made a move or attempted to move the others paid attention to him
  4. He wanted to be liked and thought of well - it was more important to him than the bank's liquidity - state of mind(?) changed from egor to fear the kind that makes you physically sick and not think straight. Found a documentary interviewing him - he has a weird personality and blamed the bank managers(??) for not stopping him
  5. There were no checks and balances ie limitations on losses n - no sound money management - unbelievable that he was able to keep getting more funds making the bank his customer so he could trade their funds - at one point 3/4 of banks funding was being gambled/martingaled by Leeson - surely it will turn around at some point (crystal ball thinking).
  6. None of us not any of us can direct the market/hold it up ever ever ever - he thought he could and who has never ending funds - trading against trend!!!!
  7. Bad things can happen unexpectedly in the market - eg earthquakes.
  8. He could have cut the losses at the outset - man on the roof story - trading is like chess sometimes you have to take the hit and sacrifice the men in the short term to win the war in the longer term.
  9. When things went wrong - he booked the loss on the bank and traded their money ie bank is now customer to try to turn the market - but still it fell.
  10. Dealers love customers buying and selling matches - they make money .
  11. Dealers love ranges/churn - pigs - they make more money
  12. Not every dealer knows what he is doing - experts can be wrong too - the market is always right.

When GBPUSD fell on referendum news - MM are now holding too much sterling - they must try to put customers off selling more by price and spread (they still get spread price) - can sell some of it to someone else fast and go the other way and/or hold some of it for future - create some churn ie more customers for them - balance it with other holdings on book and/or trade other stuff eg futures - must be lots of balancing options open to them - what a tricky job and lots of this must be automated now anyways that may change their ops.

Thanks FTI

Alex

check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,299
  • Aug 21, 2016 7:21am Aug 21, 2016 7:21am
Quoting ruben7222
{quote} no indeed probably was searching for a ro3k holy grail answer, or like a huge advantage in trading from it, but i am realising that it is not. i think i do understand a bit of this thread (maybe my thinking is incorrect, who knows) but the ro3k i need to figure out a little bit more. i understand that one can have more chart like the oil and gold which can you clues about what is happening, but when you are trading a pair, the only thing that you want to know is what is my pair(s) doing, i think all the info is all in your pair, and what...
Re RoK - have a look at Friday morning eurusd -pre GBP morning news event - what happened before the news & after it - what happened in eurgbp - compare eurjpy/ gbpjpy./usdchf /gbpusd- have a good look and see what there could be to learn - what clues about what was moving when.

I traded short eurusd briefly Friday morning with care and got out too due to RoK and news event timing and feeling etc etc - every little helps a lot - but who knows what market will do anyways. We need to watch the crosses and majors to learn from market what is useful. We need to have an overview of where market is at I think - look at some ranges too and see where market was when it was ranging in a particular pair - it should be instructive to you.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,300
  • Edited 10:36am Aug 21, 2016 8:29am | Edited 10:36am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Re RoK - have a look at Friday morning eurusd -pre GBP morning news event - what happened before the news & after it - what happened in eurgbp - compare eurjpy/ gbpjpy./usdchf /gbpusd- have a good look and see what there could be to learn - what clues about what was moving when. I traded short eurusd briefly Friday morning with care and got out too due to RoK and news event timing and feeling etc etc - every little helps a lot - but who knows what market will do anyways. We need to watch the crosses and majors to learn from market what is...
hi,

first, thanks for trying to help me.

but you know what it is, i believe everything i need to know is on my chart (taking in account the news events off course).

i think it doesn't give me an advantage to look what is GBPUSD doing if i want to trade EURUSD, because gbpusd can move, but that doesn't mean eurusd has to move.

i first had for every currency (not pair) 6 different pairs, for example for USD, e/u a/u g/u u/j u/c u/s(gd), i tought well now i can see the 'flow' and it gives me an extra advantage, for trading a pair, but it doesn't i realised later.

because all one need to know is on the chart(with a view minor exceptions), i believe.

Ruben

i think i am seeing a little advantage in it too, namely a little bit extra feel of a pair.

thanks for 'pushing' me to dig a bit further on this subject
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