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More simple is impossible

  • #7,641
  • Aug 19, 2016 12:20am Aug 19, 2016 12:20am
Quoting PhilippineFX
{quote} Slow day mixed in with a touch of dumbassedness Started late with a nice 12 pip scalp... Followed up with a well timed breakout trade only to let it retrace to BE+3...Why would any sane person not close out for 24 pips at the BRN when ADR is in double digits???{image}
It happens. The best policy IMO is to use several lots or close partial if you think something might go far. Close one at a logical target, let the other run...if one lot, don't let the greed for pips leave you hungry. ( Happens to me ).
Best, Josh
  • #7,642
  • Edited 2:21am Aug 19, 2016 2:04am | Edited 2:21am
Well, today we see if the trend up continues. We are now yet again at 38.2% retracement with a bullish pattern(10). To me, this seems like a 123 for a move up. Now, lets see if it plays out this way or not. If we fail to breach 38.2% again(less likely IMO), then we will most likely go for 200%+ extension of 123 down from yesterday around 10450.(my post from yesterday shows it) Anyway, thats how i read this.
Best, Josh

Edit. Look like the market did not like my 123 idea. Oh well.
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  • #7,643
  • Aug 19, 2016 6:39pm Aug 19, 2016 6:39pm
A FF member who goes by Cat posted this a while back. It rang very true for me. True enough to keep it on my desktop as a sticky to be re-read daily. How a trader identifies the point at which price rejoins the overall momentum is immaterial. You can use a naked chart or an algorithm based robot it maters not.
I have a theory that the Dax like most equity vehicles is driven by the big banks and their incredible algorithm machines. The money they make each day on all these price swings is mind boggling. But like most big machines once in motion they tend to stay in motion. Do not try and pick the top/bottom of these moves. Just grab the easy middle.
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  • #7,644
  • Aug 19, 2016 8:21pm Aug 19, 2016 8:21pm
Quoting PhilippineFX
A FF member who goes by Cat posted this a while back. It rang very true for me. True enough to keep it on my desktop as a sticky to be re-read daily. How a trader identifies the point at which price rejoins the overall momentum is immaterial. You can use a naked chart or an algorithm based robot it maters not. I have a theory that the Dax like most equity vehicles is driven by the big banks and their incredible algorithm machines. The money they make each day on all these price swings is mind boggling. But like most big machines once in motion they...
I have succumbed so many times to this temptation and died a thousand times, however I intend to be reborn soon.
Attached Image
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #7,645
  • Aug 20, 2016 1:44am Aug 20, 2016 1:44am
Quoting PhilippineFX
A FF member who goes by Cat posted this a while back. It rang very true for me. True enough to keep it on my desktop as a sticky to be re-read daily. How a trader identifies the point at which price rejoins the overall momentum is immaterial. You can use a naked chart or an algorithm based robot it maters not. I have a theory that the Dax like most equity vehicles is driven by the big banks and their incredible algorithm machines. The money they make each day on all these price swings is mind boggling. But like most big machines once in motion they...
  • #7,646
  • Aug 20, 2016 1:58am Aug 20, 2016 1:58am
Quoting PhilippineFX
A FF member who goes by Cat posted this a while back. It rang very true for me. True enough to keep it on my desktop as a sticky to be re-read daily. How a trader identifies the point at which price rejoins the overall momentum is immaterial. You can use a naked chart or an algorithm based robot it maters not. I have a theory that the Dax like most equity vehicles is driven by the big banks and their incredible algorithm machines. The money they make each day on all these price swings is mind boggling. But like most big machines once in motion they...
Or as Jesse Livermore put it:

"To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate." ~ Jesse Livermore
Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #7,647
  • Aug 20, 2016 2:35am Aug 20, 2016 2:35am
Quoting PhilippineFX
A FF member who goes by Cat posted this a while back. It rang very true for me. True enough to keep it on my desktop as a sticky to be re-read daily. How a trader identifies the point at which price rejoins the overall momentum is immaterial. You can use a naked chart or an algorithm based robot it maters not. I have a theory that the Dax like most equity vehicles is driven by the big banks and their incredible algorithm machines. The money they make each day on all these price swings is mind boggling. But like most big machines once in motion they...
Hey Philippine, it is a sound theory.
The way I see it is this - what will happen and the sequence it will happen in depends on the profitability of the Banks. Banks have access to the true depth of the market.(in stocks you would call it L3 access). Now, the general idea is to form false signals and moves that cost little, until you have bought/sold to prepare for the next move up or down. Now, as you see exactly where the orders are relative to the volume you want(banks want huge), you can calculate the cost of getting there. Example, you are looking to secure a short position. There is 1000 orders at 1.1 level.(maybe SLs from people that got in already-usually all at a same level-textbookSL) We are now at 1.05. Between 1.05 and 1.1 there are only 100 orders...push the market there, spend 100, hit those 1000 at 1.1, and you are set for the move down with the best possible price. ( Just look at any news event on EURUSD - starts with a fake push in one direction, then moves in the other...and sometimes, reverses after that again! Kansas City Shuffle right there.)
Now, wouldn't it be dandy if we could see volume to give us a clue as whats going on....instead, we can watch and speculate, see those big pin bars aka fake pushes and make calls based on that. Unfortunately, sometimes they make fake pushes both ways, by logic of a quick flip, or what I call a crazy ivan. But enough ramble from me, i am off to the beach.
Have a good weekend all.
Best, Josh
  • #7,648
  • Aug 20, 2016 9:04am Aug 20, 2016 9:04am
Quoting Intrepidpips
{quote} I have succumbed so many times to this temptation and died a thousand times, however I intend to be reborn soon. {image}

I have been trying to wrap my head around the concept of 1,2,3 up or 1,2,33 down and (please forgive me I'm set in my ways so if a concept does not seem simple and clear from the beginning, I may just switch off) it's looking like I have my own take on it, a very simplistic one at that which is not fuzzy or technical.
For now I've not proven it 100% maybe because of the diverse factors that move the market making it difficult to have a set in stone approach to how the market should behave.

Simply define your trend with a moving Average, above the MA is bullish and reverse for bearish.
The base of the move that crosses the MA is 1, the higher after the cross is 2, and the next low is 3 and expect an up movement up or down.

Choosing the MA is easy, take your proffered HTF MA and multiply by 4 to obtain a "replica" in your LTF
Your MACD will tell you when point 2 is thru, and when point 3 is done.

7 out of 10 times you will laugh to the bank with this formation and times the market will just be crazy, but you will always recover your losses after the market trends, just to pull the trigger when you recognize the pattern.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #7,649
  • Aug 20, 2016 9:20am Aug 20, 2016 9:20am
Some more examples.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #7,650
  • Aug 20, 2016 9:26am Aug 20, 2016 9:26am
The HTF sums up the 1,2,3 but the LTF gives the points more clearly.

Couldn't sleep till past 3 am, trying to narrow it down for myself now that is one potent weapon for the arsenal.
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Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #7,651
  • Aug 20, 2016 9:28am Aug 20, 2016 9:28am
Quoting Intrepidpips
The HTF sums up the 1,2,3 but the LTF gives the points more clearly. Couldn't sleep till past 3 am, trying to narrow it down for myself now that is one potent weapon for the arsenal. {image}

Couldn't help noticing the repetition of HDs at point 3.
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #7,652
  • Aug 22, 2016 3:06am Aug 22, 2016 3:06am
Quoting PhilippineFX
A FF member who goes by Cat posted this a while back. It rang very true for me. True enough to keep it on my desktop as a sticky to be re-read daily. How a trader identifies the point at which price rejoins the overall momentum is immaterial. You can use a naked chart or an algorithm based robot it maters not. I have a theory that the Dax like most equity vehicles is driven by the big banks and their incredible algorithm machines. The money they make each day on all these price swings is mind boggling. But like most big machines once in motion they...
Dax .....+37......resistance broken at 10,550....new trend shows its hand.... in long on the 1/2/3/4........out at resistance on the renco 20[a touch early].....
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  • #7,653
  • Aug 22, 2016 3:53am Aug 22, 2016 3:53am
First day back from travels. A little rusty.

(-16 x 2), (-15 x 2), BE, +94 +103

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  • #7,654
  • Aug 22, 2016 4:55am Aug 22, 2016 4:55am
dax,,,+21.......another 1234 this time short
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  • #7,655
  • Aug 22, 2016 6:15am Aug 22, 2016 6:15am
dax...+55....that was interesting
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  • #7,656
  • Aug 22, 2016 7:49am Aug 22, 2016 7:49am
Quoting PhilippineFX
{quote} Dax .....+37......resistance broken at 10,550....new trend shows its hand.... in long on the 1/2/3/4........out at resistance on the renco 20[a touch early].....{image}{image}

That's how to wait for the market to come to you, 1,2,3,4 very simple.
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #7,657
  • Aug 22, 2016 7:52am Aug 22, 2016 7:52am
Tried my hands on some 1,2,3 up but had to leave to wait for another possible entry.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RENKO 246.png Size: 66 KB
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Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #7,658
  • Aug 23, 2016 4:26am Aug 23, 2016 4:26am
Quoting Intrepidpips
{quote} I have been trying to wrap my head around the concept of 1,2,3 up or 1,2,33 down and (please forgive me I'm set in my ways so if a concept does not seem simple and clear from the beginning, I may just switch off) it's looking like I have my own take on it, a very simplistic one at that which is not fuzzy or technical. For now I've not proven it 100% maybe because of the diverse factors that move the market making it difficult to have a set in stone approach to how the market should behave. Simply define your trend with a moving Average,...
Hi Intrepidpips,
Just wanted to check a point on your maths and how you arrived at taking the HTF MA and multiply by 4 to get the replica in the LTF.

If your HTF is 10 renko and the moving average you use is say 50 EMA and your LTF is 5 renko, surely as LTF is exactly half the HTF you would multiply the MA by 2 (not 4) giving you a 100 EMA in the 5 renko LTF. If I look at 5 renko chart with 100 EMA and 10 renko chart with 50 EMA side by side they look the same to me. Price is crossing the MA in exactly the same place on both. Am I correct?

See the image below. It is the blue MA on both chart I'm referring to. I had to zoom out the Renko 5 to see the same bars on the 5 and 10.

Nelson

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  • #7,659
  • Aug 23, 2016 7:03am Aug 23, 2016 7:03am
Quoting Nelson35a
{quote} Hi Intrepidpips, Just wanted to check a point on your maths and how you arrived at taking the HTF MA and multiply by 4 to get the replica in the LTF. If your HTF is 10 renko and the moving average you use is say 50 EMA and your LTF is 5 renko, surely as LTF is exactly half the HTF you would multiply the MA by 2 (not 4) giving you a 100 EMA in the 5 renko LTF. If I look at 5 renko chart with 100 EMA and 10 renko chart with 50 EMA side by side they look the same to me. Price is crossing the MA in exactly the same place on both. Am I correct?...
Good question Nelson, I didn't come up with the maths it was by observation, but afterwards I gave it a long thought why is it so?

The answer is simple, consider that a moving average is the representative average of the number of bars you chose it represent, if you choose, it to represent 25 periods, it takes the number of bars you chose and obtains the average then with successive bars it gives a new reading.
For the Renko bar, the higher Time Frame represents double of one Lower Time Frame bar, and occasionally it will contain a reversal bar that is 4 times the regular bar of the LTF. The HTF will even at times contain pin bars that may be 0.4 pips away from being 4 times the size of the regular LTF.

To prove this you must determine the close of the HTF bar and see where that is on the LTF MA. In the example I've providd, price closed in the HTF chart below 131.5200, below the 20LWMA and the LTF chart shows you where that is below the 80LWMA.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RENKO 248.png Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: RENKO 249.png Size: 77 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #7,660
  • Aug 23, 2016 7:11am Aug 23, 2016 7:11am
Quoting Intrepidpips
{quote} Good question Nelson, I didn't come up with the maths it was by observation, but afterwards I gave it a long thought why is it so? The answer is simple, consider that a moving average is the representative average of the number of bars you chose it represent, if you choose, it to represent 25 periods, it takes the number of bars you chose and obtains the average then with successive bars it gives a new reading. For the Renko bar, the higher Time Frame represents double of one Lower Time Frame bar, and occasionally it will contain a reversal...

BTW I prefer LWMA Shift 2 Typical price, don't know if that contributes but it makes my MA smoother.
Let it turn and find your entry.
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