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Trading on the Right Side of the Market (Hopefully)

  • #21
  • Aug 18, 2016 12:44pm Aug 18, 2016 12:44pm
Quoting wizlon32
{quote} Took an entry on this one a bit higher than I initially intended as it moved up on US news. It has now broken and closed below the TL and my SL is at break even + a couple of pips. {image}
Lower TF Stochastics are all over sold now, including H1. I want to be sure of taking some profit so I have moved my SL so it will be hit if price breaks out of the current M5 down channel. I have also placed a TP at the recent lows.

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  • #22
  • Edited 2:00pm Aug 18, 2016 1:42pm | Edited 2:00pm
Quoting wizlon32
EURGBP H1 Keeping an eye on this for a short entry if price breaks below the pink TL. The blue TLs and the 50% Fib add confluence in the area that I would like to short from. I will adjust the pink TL as it develops. I will also consider shorting before a TL break if we get a nice rejection pin bar. {image}
Entered short based on my earlier analysis on the H1 TF and what I am seeing on M5. M5 chart shows just broke below the lower TL of a rising wedge. SL above 61.8% Fib. Got the feeling I might be a bit early but we will see.

Edit: SL moved to above H1 River (28 pips above entry).

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  • #23
  • Edited 2:02pm Aug 18, 2016 1:44pm | Edited 2:02pm
Quoting wizlon32
{quote} Lower TF Stochastics are all over sold now, including H1. I want to be sure of taking some profit so I have moved my SL so it will be hit if price breaks out of the current M5 down channel. I have also placed a TP at the recent lows. {image}
Well UJ broke out of the M5 channel and came very close to my SL, but has now dropped back inside the channel. Im hoping it hits my TP.

Edit: SL hit. Trade closed + 40 pips.

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  • #24
  • Aug 19, 2016 2:30am Aug 19, 2016 2:30am
Trading on strong trending days.

The Dax can be a bit of animal - I have probably lost more money trading Dax than any other instrument. When it goes pop it just doesn't stop!

Here is an H1 and a M5 view of Dax on 9th of this month. It was like a rocket and it was very hard to get an entry on H1. But by dropping down to M5 there was plenty of chances to get in.

The yellow lines are bracketing the same period of time on each TF.

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  • #25
  • Aug 19, 2016 2:34am Aug 19, 2016 2:34am
Quoting wizlon32
{quote} Well there was a decent break below the TL with a nice bearish candle. I was waiting for the a re-test and rejection to enter but it doesn't seem like it's ready after all. Lets see how it reacts now to the upper TL. {image}
Well it seems that Dax finally decided to drop. The horizontal resistance line that I drew in yesterday proved to be important. I didn't get an entry.

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Edit: Actually I did take a trade on this yesterday - unfortunately it was on my Demo account.

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  • #26
  • Aug 19, 2016 2:38am Aug 19, 2016 2:38am
Here is a Demo trade I took yesterday on Silver H4.

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  • #27
  • Aug 19, 2016 2:52am Aug 19, 2016 2:52am
USDCAD H4

Possible counter trend trade here. If price breaks and closes above the yellow TL I will watch for a retrace to it and a rejection to go long.

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  • #28
  • Aug 19, 2016 3:22am Aug 19, 2016 3:22am
nice analysis. can you share your template? thanx
  • #29
  • Aug 19, 2016 3:22am Aug 19, 2016 3:22am
Consolidation Breakouts

The River becomes turbulent, twisting and turning, when the market is ranging. When this happens it is best to wait - an opportunity is coming.

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  • #30
  • Aug 19, 2016 3:23am Aug 19, 2016 3:23am
Current Gold H4

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  • #31
  • Aug 19, 2016 3:25am Aug 19, 2016 3:25am
EURJPY H4

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  • #32
  • Edited 7:05am Aug 19, 2016 3:31am | Edited 7:05am
Quoting wizlon32
{quote} Entered short based on my earlier analysis on the H1 TF and what I am seeing on M5. M5 chart shows just broke below the lower TL of a rising wedge. SL above 61.8% Fib. Got the feeling I might be a bit early but we will see. Edit: SL moved to above H1 River (28 pips above entry). {image}
Still in EURGBP short. It looks like it wants to go down.

EDIT: Stopped out -15 pips.

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  • #33
  • Aug 19, 2016 4:52am Aug 19, 2016 4:52am
Quoting wizlon32
Here is a Demo trade I took yesterday on Silver H4. {image}
Silver is dropping well. Looks like a triangle breakout so we could see a nice drop if itcan close outside of it.

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  • #34
  • Edited 6:50am Aug 19, 2016 5:14am | Edited 6:50am
Golden Nugget #2

Trading High Volatility News Events

Trading certain news events is one sure way to blow your account if you don't know what you're doing. It is definately not for the faint hearted. One way to improve your chances is to hedge your trade (either same pair hedgeing or on negatively correlated pairs)

Example

NFP Release - Buy EURUSD 0.01 lots and set sell stop 0.02 lots 20 to 30 pips below current price, 1 min before release time.

Negative number = you profit if it goes up at 0.01 lots.

Positive number = you lose 30 pips at 0.01 until sell stop is activated and you start to profit at 0.02 pips.

Profit will potentially very quickly outweigh the loss resulting in a profitable trade.

Close both trades at the same time when you hit profit target or you see weakness and possible reversal.

The volume traded can be as small or large as you want as long as the stop order is double the initial order.

Replicating thistrade on several USD pairs would maximise profit potential.

This genuinely works but whipsaws can be a problem when they happen. More info and an EA can be found here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=496994
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  • #35
  • Aug 19, 2016 7:10am Aug 19, 2016 7:10am
GBPJPY H4

Watching for a break of the pink TL to short.

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  • #36
  • Aug 19, 2016 7:11am Aug 19, 2016 7:11am
Gold H4

Breakout?

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  • #37
  • Aug 19, 2016 7:38am Aug 19, 2016 7:38am
Quoting wizlon32
USDCAD H4 Possible counter trend trade here. If price breaks and closes above the yellow TL I will watch for a retrace to it and a rejection to go long. {image}
OK so it was helped on it's way by negative CAD news. Hopefully the next H4 candle will give us a retrace for a chance to get in long. If we manage to make a new HH then I will watch for a retrace from that point to a Fib level to go long again.

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  • #38
  • Aug 19, 2016 8:39am Aug 19, 2016 8:39am
Quoting wizlon32
{quote} OK so it was helped on it's way by negative CAD news. Hopefully the next H4 candle will give us a retrace for a chance to get in long. If we manage to make a new HH then I will watch for a retrace from that point to a Fib level to go long again. {image}
This was the entry I wanted but I missed as Iwas doing some jobs in the house. I will wait now for another chance.

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  • #39
  • Aug 19, 2016 8:41am Aug 19, 2016 8:41am
Quoting wizlon32
GBPJPY H4 Watching for a break of the pink TL to short. {image}
GBPJPY broke out strongly. No retrace so far and no entry for me yet.

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  • #40
  • Edited 10:03am Aug 19, 2016 9:26am | Edited 10:03am
Quoting wizlon32
{quote} GBPJPY broke out strongly. No retrace so far and no entry for me yet. {image}
GBPJPY entered short. 2 positions.

Note: This in line with what I'm seeing on H4 TF.

Edit: Both positions closed for small profit at close oflast H1 candle. Going to see what this next H1 candle wants to. Will try to sell again but at the pink TL this time.

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