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Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

  • #841
  • Aug 9, 2016 6:55am Aug 9, 2016 6:55am
oil thread...seat taken,nice one.
43.35 was an s/r...still expect price to hit 44.20 even at that before a re-trace to 39.xx for a final buy upwards.
Nothing stands in the way of a person's will -THE MYSTICS
  • #842
  • Aug 12, 2016 9:02pm Aug 12, 2016 9:02pm
Let's see what it does in Wholesale Price Area.

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  • #843
  • Aug 13, 2016 3:49pm Aug 13, 2016 3:49pm
Thanks to OPEC oil ministers' crude oil freeze talks. WTI has gone up last two days. Will WTI keep going up? The fundamental of crude oil is still weak. Current surge may not be sustainable.
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  • #844
  • Aug 14, 2016 1:58am Aug 14, 2016 1:58am
Inserted Video
  • #845
  • Aug 16, 2016 8:56am Aug 16, 2016 8:56am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Given the present reaction of price at this level, I've taken a nibble long. Lets see if we move back to the highs. It appears the 200 day sma has provided dynamic support but a close below the 41.50 level will put me back on the bench. Trade Safe
I will be holding my long but am moving my stop to cover at 46.72. Target remains 52 area. *Patience*
  • #846
  • Edited 3:04pm Aug 16, 2016 2:23pm | Edited 3:04pm
PA coming up on a daily trendline/61.8 fib cross (46.8 - 47.2 area). Buy the rumour, sell the news?? Bullish weekly divergence and that head and shoulders formation on the weekly have me a little more on guard for a sell though.
  • #847
  • Aug 16, 2016 3:44pm Aug 16, 2016 3:44pm
Looks bulls run more and more...
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -168
  • #848
  • Aug 17, 2016 2:15am Aug 17, 2016 2:15am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} I will be holding my long but am moving my stop to cover at 46.72. Target remains 52 area. *Patience*
Holding for information:
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-Ne...ine-Build.html

Oil inventory and FOMC.

Caution: event risk
  • #849
  • Aug 17, 2016 3:17am Aug 17, 2016 3:17am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} I will be holding my long but am moving my stop to cover at 46.72. Target remains 52 area. *Patience*
Hi there, if reaches 52 - second top - than down to 35 ?
  • #850
  • Aug 17, 2016 4:43am Aug 17, 2016 4:43am
Quoting RiderKBP
{quote} Hi there, if reaches 52 - second top - than down to 35 ?
Interesting thought, the trend is reversed bullish, so I would limit the downside targets.

When the AB=CD pattern formed it spoke to a downside of 37.26 on a retracement of 61,8 of the pattern, however price respected the 200 day sma and capped that view for now, we will need to see a much more Bearish wave to believe that Oil will go deeper. I think the supply=demand scenario is beginning to bring about price stability and we are more likely to see 60's in the final part of the year than we will see 30's.

The downside risks are related to the dollar, so keep watching FOMC for dollar strength, it does seem that the Fed is out of bullets for now though.

Short scenario chart from 6th July...
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Trade safe
  • #851
  • Aug 17, 2016 9:35am Aug 17, 2016 9:35am
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
  • #852
  • Aug 17, 2016 9:45am Aug 17, 2016 9:45am
Quoting JimmyC
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
I can't really interpret the report. What does it mean? Oil price up or down?
  • #853
  • Aug 17, 2016 10:04am Aug 17, 2016 10:04am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I can't really interpret the report. What does it mean? Oil price up or down?
As always the report is open to market interpretation but:

Demand was higher than supply and storage was used:
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week.

Refineries operated at 93.5% of their operable capacity last week.
Supply is under pressure but coping, refineries are busy.

If you review this with the past data these data point show stable supply but increasing demand, both number are marginal. The headline number however indicates that there is increasing demand and therefore price should rise marginally.

Since there is no real market surprise and FOMC with its $ effect on price the market response will be muted.
  • #854
  • Aug 17, 2016 10:09am Aug 17, 2016 10:09am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} As always the report is open to market interpretation but: Demand was higher than supply and storage was used: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week. Refineries operated at 93.5% of their operable capacity last week. Supply is under pressure but coping, refineries are busy. If you review this with the past data these data point show stable supply but increasing demand, both number are marginal. The headline number however indicates...
Thanks so much! it's a learning for me. GL to you!
  • #855
  • Aug 18, 2016 3:04am Aug 18, 2016 3:04am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} As always the report is open to market interpretation but: Demand was higher than supply and storage was used: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week. Refineries operated at 93.5% of their operable capacity last week. Supply is under pressure but coping, refineries are busy. If you review this with the past data these data point show stable supply but increasing demand, both number are marginal. The headline number however indicates...
Hi JimmyC, still 52 as you expected? 50 is quite hard resistance.. but touched and little above which is actually mark for me that second try will be soon.
  • #856
  • Aug 18, 2016 6:30am Aug 18, 2016 6:30am
Quoting RiderKBP
{quote} Hi JimmyC, still 52 as you expected? 50 is quite hard resistance.. but touched and little above which is actually mark for me that second try will be soon.
I have key resistance at 50.21
I have capital protection stop at 46.72
My trading plan is 80% profit at 52 and trade hourly swings with stop for the rest.
Sticking to the plan, currently no rules for exit.

Fundamentals continue to support the plan. But will need to review next Wednesday

Trade safe
  • #857
  • Aug 18, 2016 10:42am Aug 18, 2016 10:42am
Brent Oil H1

Interesting PA flirting with 5100 level.

Not useful I know but since no one else has intra-day charts I thought I'd share...


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  • #858
  • Aug 18, 2016 11:06am Aug 18, 2016 11:06am
Record shorts = record pain

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...20#post9060432
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #859
  • Aug 18, 2016 4:23pm Aug 18, 2016 4:23pm
Quoting Kurosh
AB=CD from my vision Miror {image}
Next Step and now Price is : 48.93
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Life is too short , So keep smiling
  • #860
  • Aug 19, 2016 3:32am Aug 19, 2016 3:32am
Quoting JimmyC
Brent Oil H1 Interesting PA flirting with 5100 level. Not useful I know but since no one else has intra-day charts I thought I'd share... {image}
I have exit rules,
Stop / Take Profit moved to 4973.8
Swing exit.
Locked
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