{quote} the advantage doesnt lie in their occurrence. Trading occurs. Price moves. Buys occur, sells occur. Nothing special. advantage is knowing where they occur.
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What is obvious is often unseen.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
{quote} Thanks. I am happy to note that you agree on the short side.of the kiwi dollar. The tp might vary which is fine. I am a bit busy today. Will post more around 8 hours from now.
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Hi Colin, first thanks for sharing your thoughts. To me the market has not already shown its hand/downward bias, not before clearing the 0.715/0.717 area, but I know I can be (considered) too conservative.
Below that level a drop will be likely for me too, but what I don't understand is your TP. The double top you're looking at has already been broken many times, why do you consider it still valid?
As you said there's support @ 0.695/0.697 that's where the price got stopped twice after bouncing off the 0.725, don't you think that once the price breaks that level it might drop a lot further than just 50 more pips?
Thanks
{quote} Hi Colin, first thanks for sharing your thoughts. To me the market has not already shown its hand/downward bias, not before clearing the 0.715/0.717 area, but I know I can be (considered) too conservative. Below that level a drop will be likely for me too, but what I don't understand is your TP. The double top you're looking at has already been broken many times, why do you consider it still valid? As you said there's support @ 0.695/0.697 that's where the price got stopped twice after bouncing off the 0.725, don't you think that once the...
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Thanks for your inputs to the thread. I have posted a weekly chart of NZDUSD again with my TP marked. Now, when you look at the weekly chart, you can see that the level has not been broken on the weekly as easily as it looks on the daily chart. In fact, there has been a clean break only once. Also, price is always attracted towards round numbers cos thats where the vanilla options and the buys/sells sit. So, it is natural for price to gravitate towards that.
{quote} Thanks for your inputs to the thread. I have posted a weekly chart of NZDUSD again with my TP marked. Now, when you look at the weekly chart, you can see that the level has not been broken on the weekly as easily as it looks on the daily chart. In fact, there has been a clean break only once. Also, price is always attracted towards round numbers cos thats where the vanilla options and the buys/sells sit. So, it is natural for price to gravitate towards that.
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Thanks for your answer. I think I get your point but in this case I have a different reading. I agree with you about round numbers but the PA around that level (last 2 weeks of April and first of May) makes me think it's not a valid support anymore, that's why I'd put my TP lower. Time will tell, anyway thanks it's always useful to compare opinions and chart readings.
{quote} Thanks for your answer. I think I get your point but in this case I have a different reading. I agree with you about round numbers but the PA around that level (last 2 weeks of April and first of May) makes me think it's not a valid support anymore, that's why I'd put my TP lower. Time will tell, anyway thanks it's always useful to compare opinions and chart readings. M.
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it indeed is useful. Also, as i said before, i will be also watching the PA around the region and if there is a continuous stall of price around 6950, i will be glad to exit.
here is another fun way to find SR regions. This also shows how amazing charting can be. and it can be fun too ! I have just taken a chart at random. not handpicked them. i have posted a EURTRY daily chart. Look at the bar marked A. You see that the bar is abnormally long. Find out such bars in a chart, mark their close and low and these would then act as excellent SR regions. I have marked the close of the bar A with a red line. You can see how beautifully it acts as a support and resistance region after that. amazing, isnt it?
here is another fun way to find SR regions. This also shows how amazing charting can be. and it can be fun too ! I have just taken a chart at random. not handpicked them. i have posted a EURTRY daily chart. Look at the bar marked A. You see that the bar is abnormally long. Find out such bars in a chart, mark their close and low and these would then act as excellent SR regions. I have marked the close of the bar A with a red line. You can see how beautifully it acts as a support and resistance region after that. amazing, isnt it? {image}
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It is. Any possible explanation of why those bars are usually pretty good S/R zones?
Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
{quote} It is. Any possible explanation of why those bars are usually pretty good S/R zones?
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as is obvious, large bars are created due to sudden movement of price (up or down). due to this sudden movement, a lot of traders (fund managers/retail/HNIs) are caught unawares due to this big move. So, they almost always try to retrace the price to the starting point of the big move (just like how a weekend gap works), so that they can handle their holding positions as they had planned to do before this sudden movement. So, once the retrace back to the first point is complete, there is not much need to move the price further up or down and thats why it acts as a SR region. i believe this can be explained in other ways as well but i am just trying to explain it in the most simplest of ways.
Attached is the current EURUSD H1 chart. It shows a reverse umbrella (called as the cup) being formed currently. Such formations usually break to the upperside, sooner or later.
Attached is the current EURUSD H1 chart. It shows a reverse umbrella (called as the cup) being formed currently. Such formations usually break to the upperside, sooner or later. {image}
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Thank you for the explanation. On your attached picture, there was also a huge candle with the retracement after the close.
Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
EURUSD looks like a very large H&S pattern... Think the USD still appreciates 6-12 months but closely watching this. We still want to take macro long USD positions but the GBP has just been too easy of a trend. In reference to the areas on the EURUSD yesterday/today - it's always interesting to hear people talk about the option barriers. They often do work, and the psychological barriers in FX are more than helpful. Every round number has a specific set of action tied to it. In this case, EURUSD 1.2250 is a major one. Take a look at our chart below, we know the ADRH (white line) and DR1 (red line) today is at about 1.1210 - without any data events this will likely contain price. Remember, the key word here is likely because eventually, and sometimes for no reason, support and resistance levels fail - so that's why risk management matters.
Risk Disclaimer: All performance metrics are shown for demonstration purposes only. Past results are not indicative of future results. These statistics are subject to change upon being updated on a timely basis. Any information contained herein is for market commentary only, and does not constitute investment advice. Trading carries a high level of risk, and can result in substantial loss. Please consult with a registered advisor for further consultations. Thank you for stopping by our thread.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
{quote} Certainly, although I'm not sure about their significance on lower TFs. {image}
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ah yes. I thought you were pointing to my earlier chart on EURTRY. anyways, as you can see, it works on the lower TFs also, like the hourly. You had the abnormally long bar and the close of that bar serves as support/resistance, then you have the retracement back to the bottom and then up again to the close of the bar. The cup shaped pattern shows that the big boys want to take it back up again. lets wait for them to show their hand.
i believe that the big guys are beginning to show their hand on EURUSD. They are carrying NZDUSD with them. Lets see.
This commercial section of FF is proving to be a bit too restrictive for me. I like feedback and i like to talk to other traders and share ideas and thats why i came in here. But i have been pushed into this commercial section (rightly so, i agree) where there isnt much interaction. hmmm.
i believe that the big guys are beginning to show their hand on EURUSD. They are carrying NZDUSD with them. Lets see. This commercial section of FF is proving to be a bit too restrictive for me. I like feedback and i like to talk to other traders and share ideas and thats why i came in here. But i have been pushed into this commercial section (rightly so, i agree) where there isnt much interaction. hmmm.
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Maybe you have to cancel the links to the other thread or ask the moderators how to get back to the non commercial section.
According EU, it's actually the USD under a sell off. I hope EU will get to 1.16 (gone long @1.114), with a minimum target @ 1.14.
{quote} Maybe you have to cancel the links to the other thread or ask the moderators how to get back to the non commercial section. According EU, it's actually the USD under a sell off. I hope EU will get to 1.16 (gone long @1.114), with a minimum target @ 1.14.
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well, i want to do FX mentoring. So thats what i offer. and i understand that it is commercial and hence all my threads have to stay in this section. But it sucks that i cant post anywhere else. Anyways, rules are rules and i accept that.
Yes, as i had said before, the banks would not allow EU to go down, especially after Brexit and it was always supported below. And the move was telegraphed by the cup formation.
{quote} Maybe you have to cancel the links to the other thread or ask the moderators how to get back to the non commercial section. According EU, it's actually the USD under a sell off. I hope EU will get to 1.16 (gone long @1.114), with a minimum target @ 1.14.
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as for the target, yes it should be 1.1420 based on the top of the long bar on the daily.
{quote} well, i want to do FX mentoring. So thats what i offer. and i understand that it is commercial and hence all my threads have to stay in this section. But it sucks that i cant post anywhere else. Anyways, rules are rules and i accept that. Yes, as i had said before, the banks would not allow EU to go down, especially after Brexit and it was always supported below. And the move was telegraphed by the cup formation.
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I'm sorry for you in this section you won't get so much interest.
As for EU, yes that's the first natural target but it's too close to my entry so I think I'll go for the 1.16.
{quote} I'm sorry for you in this section you won't get so much interest. As for EU, yes that's the first natural target but it's too close to my entry so I think I'll go for the 1.16.
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yeah i can see that. i guess i will just start a blog where i can write what i want to and do what i want to. i mean, i am not trying to rip off anyone. i am geneuinely interested to mentor people to become better traders.
1.14 might be a tough nut to crack, atleast in the beginning. unless US buries itself during the fomc.
