trying to plant a long GA position based on simple trend lines | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Simple Long vs Short position % return question 3 replies

Tiger trend trading -long term position trading 346 replies

A simple EMA based trend following system 8 replies

Trend Smasher - Profitable Mechanical Long Term Position Trading 109 replies

Long position or short position 6 replies

Attachments: trying to plant a long GA position based on simple trend lines
Exit Attachments

trying to plant a long GA position based on simple trend lines

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 13, 2016 7:57am Aug 13, 2016 7:57am
this is the gbpaud weekly chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly ga.jpg Size: 118 KB


as you can see it usually moves up and down in a channel with specific angle


this is the daily chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.jpg Size: 101 KB



what about we wait for it to rebound from the lower trend line (if that happens)
then wait for it to build an uptrend with the same angle it is used to
then wait for it to be on the lower trend line of the newly formed channel
and plant longs (targeting the green line for now) (700 pips)




note that it still have ~80 pips down chance based on this 15 minute chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: m15.jpg Size: 129 KB


and from there (1.6790) or if it goes down more to touch the lower weekly TL (1.6730) we can start watching/waiting the new uptrend.
  • #2
  • Edited 5:18am Aug 14, 2016 4:19am | Edited 5:18am
Quoting j_snail
this is the gbpaud weekly chart {image} as you can see it usually moves up and down in a channel with specific angle this is the daily chart {image} what about we wait for it to rebound from the lower trend line (if that happens) then wait for it to build an uptrend with the same angle it is used to then wait for it to be on the lower trend line of the newly formed channel and plant longs (targeting the green line for now) (700 pips) note that it still have ~80 pips down chance based on this 15 minute chart {image} and from there (1.6790) or if...
looked at my chart, looked again and than i looked again i have to say, this is not a pair that i usualy trade but i think that is not such a bad idea to go long even if the level is (for me) not the best for a long (my longs are way lower :-)). So here is my plan: I go out below 1.6760, BE at 1.7050 TP 1 at 1.7150 and TP 2 at 1.7450 TP3 open for the 1.7600
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: my.png Size: 32 KB


notice: break out of the range below maybe a good short?
(.)(.) think first ...
  • #3
  • Aug 15, 2016 4:10am Aug 15, 2016 4:10am
thanks for the replay.
yes after thinking about it it may not be the best level for a long, but it may be a good one for a short-term long.
I like that your entry/tp levels are near mine.

yes a breakout means short but it may be a dangerous counter-trend game (false break/retouch broken level) that I don't have patience to play so usually i do a small scalp sell and run away with whatever i can get.

even the long plan won't be with a big lot size at the start because i know market makers like to play around those areas, so i'll start small and build-up slowly.
  • #4
  • Edited 7:32am Aug 15, 2016 7:22am | Edited 7:32am
Quoting j_snail
thanks for the replay. yes after thinking about it it may not be the best level for a long, but it may be a good one for a short-term long. I like that your entry/tp levels are near mine. yes a breakout means short but it may be a dangerous counter-trend game (false break/retouch broken level) that I don't have patience to play so usually i do a small scalp sell and run away with whatever i can get. even the long plan won't be with a big lot size at the start because i know market makers like to play around those areas, so i'll start small and build-up...
...usually i do a small scalp sell and run away with whatever i can get. i would do it also
sometimes are even the "not the best levels" worth for a try. Sounds that you have plan and control your risk.
(.)(.) think first ...
  • #5
  • Sep 12, 2016 9:45am Sep 12, 2016 9:45am
the plan worked, GA went up (~900 pips)




it's now going up while respecting the same angle in many channels

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture-174222.jpg Size: 196 KB



now we have to catch the correct formation of the upper trend line, and enjoy the ride down (from around 1.7770)


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture-174354.jpg Size: 196 KB
  • #6
  • Edited 8:32am Sep 16, 2016 8:09am | Edited 8:32am
250 pips so far


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture-160818.jpg Size: 131 KB
  • #7
  • Sep 16, 2016 8:22am Sep 16, 2016 8:22am
here is a picture showing the current situation

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture-161703.jpg Size: 177 KB


so far we will assume the following:

- the top trend line has been formed (the blue line)
- the price now is going to form the bottom line
- the first red line is an existing bottom ..........
- it can't be the bottom line of the channel because in previuos observations GA likes to draw wider channels
- theoretically the second red line (or somewhere near it) should be the bottom

on H4 the break of 1.7500 should give a good short signal
  • #8
  • Sep 16, 2016 2:47pm Sep 16, 2016 2:47pm
1.7500 broke
135 pips so far

(going to 1.7349 for now)



every prediction I said is presented in a green circle ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud-h4-.png Size: 93 KB


stay tuned, once we find the true bottom of this channel, the milking process will start
  • #9
  • Sep 20, 2016 11:21am Sep 20, 2016 11:21am
310 pips


enough, now we have good signs of rebound from 1.7161
it can be a small rebound then it can go back down to look for another bottom, even in this case we can scalp a few pips

or it can go high to ~1.7800

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture-191348.jpg Size: 222 KB


anyway we have a nice buy here, breaking the red bottom line will cancel it (SL around 1.7050)
  • #10
  • Sep 21, 2016 7:17am Sep 21, 2016 7:17am
1.7161 wasn't the actual trend changer but as I mentioned we had ~50 pips rebound from it

now it went back down to meet 1.7088 (the red line) , we already had a ~30 pips rebound from it, I'm expecting more, lets see...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDH4-l.png Size: 95 KB
  • #11
  • Sep 21, 2016 7:41am Sep 21, 2016 7:41am
So, do you test this theory, or you trade it?
The week is a lot. Perhaps you have a large margin deposit for this trading.
Looking for partners
  • #12
  • Last Post: Sep 21, 2016 11:44am Sep 21, 2016 11:44am
it's just basic trend line trading.
yes the idea was born off the weekly time frame but I don't do long-term trading
see all the entry points I mentioned, stop loss hardly reached 50 pips
so you can just use this to capture the rebounds and/or use it to confirm other analysis

IF it's a theory that would go like "find the most respected up/down channel angle in the weekly then use it to forecast the future channel"
then it's hard to apply it on lots of pairs


applying it to eurusd is a joke

usdjpy shows some potential but its hard to rely on it to predict anything

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture-191711.jpg Size: 161 KB





but here it's almost always the same angle

remember this picture I made to predict the new channel
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1473691401
compare it to the last one
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1474460174
I just changed the colors from green to grey
0 traders viewing now