Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 398 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #7,941
  • Aug 12, 2016 12:29am Aug 12, 2016 12:29am
Hope you are having a nice week. I am in Singapore right now. I will be running a full live workshop on supply and demand during during the weekend. There are still seats for the workshop so you will be welcome if you are interested.

You can find all the information for this workshop at http://www.set-and-forget.com/workshops_supply_demand
You can register here https://www.set-and-forget.com/amember/signup/workshops

You can watch a 1 hour excerpt of last workshop held in Singapore at this link:
Inserted Video


If you have any questions please send me an email using the contact form in the Set and Forget community at http://www.set-and-forget.com/contact-us

Enjoy your weekend!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,942
  • Aug 12, 2016 1:16am Aug 12, 2016 1:16am
Quoting isaacpeh
Hello Mr Alfonso, I came up to you right before the senimar ended yesterday. What i wanted to ask was about the pair NZD/USD. On your weekly anaylasis being emailed to us not long ago , it stated that NZD/USD is a short bias at that time. Since the MN is already a Down consodilation but WK and D1 is an Up trend , why is it still a short bias? Side note : My short trade was triggered on this pair on the D1 chart but i guess the recent interest rate just made price hit my SL and ran back down omg. Will i be allowed to place another trade after my...
Hello there, thanks for your question on NZDUSD. I remember the weekly analysis I sent, there was short bias, but on the way up things happened that would have prevented us from taking the short. However the D1 supply zone was not a loss, it was overshot but not a loss since you need to add 25 pips or 25% wiggle room to the stop loss, high was taken out by about 20 pips. If you took the short and had a loss it's because you did not add the correct amount of wiggle room to your stop loss as specified by the rules. Trade is playing out even though it's aggressive with the WK bullish engulfing pattern.

Now it's very tricky with those pin candles... Waiting on this one.
Hope this helps.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,943
  • Edited 12:18pm Aug 12, 2016 11:05am | Edited 12:18pm
Hello panoramia ,
Can you tell me if this analisys who I have done at NZDUSD are right?

D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: D1.png Size: 34 KB


H4:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H4.png Size: 43 KB
"In God we trust."
  • #7,944
  • Aug 12, 2016 11:42am Aug 12, 2016 11:42am
Quoting renanc93
Hello panoramia , Can you tell me if this analisys who I have done at NZDUSD are right? D1: {image} H4: {image} H1: {image} Thanks for this topic, we are learning a lot here!
Hello my friend,

H1 charts are not allowed in this thread, could you please remove the H1 chart or request a cleanup of your post so it's deleted and re-upload your analysis without the H1 chart? You must follow the rules, sorry

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,945
  • Aug 12, 2016 11:49am Aug 12, 2016 11:49am
AUDUSD weekly supply level in control, short bias, no longs allowed unless supply is eliminated.

Cheers,
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.jpg Size: 86 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,946
  • Edited 12:50pm Aug 12, 2016 12:29pm | Edited 12:50pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello my friend, H1 charts are not allowed in this thread, could you please remove the H1 chart or request a cleanup of your post so it's deleted and re-upload your analysis without the H1 chart? You must follow the rules, sorry Cheers, Alfonso
Sorry, post edited.
Can you please tell me if the analisys is right?
Thanks
"In God we trust."
  • #7,947
  • Aug 13, 2016 6:38am Aug 13, 2016 6:38am
Hey,
May I ask what the weekly supply on AUDUSD has accomplished since it is valid? It doesn't seem to has taken out any demand or broke ascending TL? However it looks like a reaction to previous Weekly supply.
  • #7,948
  • Aug 13, 2016 11:59am Aug 13, 2016 11:59am
i am going through your thread its a complete information about supply and demand thanx a lot for such information. I am a novice trader with supply and demand following are my questions
1)Where can i find step by step videos on supply and demands?
2)Does supply and demand work on indian stocks (as i am from india)
3)Does it work for lower time frames like 5 min 1 hr ?
4)Any book or study material you suggest to get complete knowledge.
I wanted to share some of my basic charts with supply and demand
Thanx a lot
  • #7,949
  • Aug 13, 2016 1:35pm Aug 13, 2016 1:35pm
Quoting shashank0949
i am going through your thread its a complete information about supply and demand thanx a lot for such information. I am a novice trader with supply and demand following are my questions 1)Where can i find step by step videos on supply and demands? 2)Does supply and demand work on indian stocks (as i am from india) 3)Does it work for lower time frames like 5 min 1 hr ? 4)Any book or study material you suggest to get complete knowledge. I wanted to share some of my basic charts with supply and demand Thanx a lot
1: https://www.youtube.com/user/supplya...ndforex/videos
2: Yes it works with indian stocks too. Some videos are on indian shares.
3: Strongly not recommended . You should trade the 4hr and above TF for this stragety.
4: First post will be enough! Read everything.

Happy trading
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
  • #7,950
  • Aug 13, 2016 7:41pm Aug 13, 2016 7:41pm
Quoting DeanMoar
Hey, May I ask what the weekly supply on AUDUSD has accomplished since it is valid? It doesn't seem to has taken out any demand or broke ascending TL? However it looks like a reaction to previous Weekly supply.
A more aggressive bullish trendline was drawn, that's why. We had several pauses on the way up so we're allowed to draw a more aggressive trendline that createdsupply.

Cheers,
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,951
  • Aug 14, 2016 7:22am Aug 14, 2016 7:22am
Hi everybody,

Hope the workshop was great! I want to ask why can't the monthly supply on AUDUSD be in control? Why weekly and not monthly?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd monthly.PNG Size: 44 KB
  • #7,952
  • Aug 14, 2016 7:35pm Aug 14, 2016 7:35pm
Quoting Forexbeaver
Hi everybody, Hope the workshop was great! I want to ask why can't the monthly supply on AUDUSD be in control? Why weekly and not monthly? {image}
That is not a monthly supply level on AUDUSD, it did not remove any opposing demand zone.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,953
  • Aug 14, 2016 9:29pm Aug 14, 2016 9:29pm
Quoting Forexbeaver
Hi everybody, Hope the workshop was great! I want to ask why can't the monthly supply on AUDUSD be in control? Why weekly and not monthly? {image}
Hi,
Referring to following Monthly AUD/USD chart
Why we are not considering zones marked on left of current price as demand?
1) Lower zone:- although it is not a perfect 50% candle it is the poss in market as compared to succeeding & preceding candle.
2) Upper level:- Clear Morubozu candle

These two levels are inherent levels & are taken out by the pink supply imbalance which is now in control.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,954
  • Aug 14, 2016 10:12pm Aug 14, 2016 10:12pm
Quoting Vsm
{quote} Hi, Referring to following Monthly AUD/USD chart Why we are not considering zones marked on left of current price as demand? 1) Lower zone:- although it is not a perfect 50% candle it is the poss in market as compared to succeeding & preceding candle. 2) Upper level:- Clear Morubozu candle These two levels are inherent levels & are taken out by the pink supply imbalance which is now in control. {image}
Is Morubozu candle demand/supply area?
  • #7,955
  • Aug 16, 2016 1:03am Aug 16, 2016 1:03am
USDCAD falling for 7 days straight now... trendline broken and the daily demand from Friday also broken..
  • #7,956
  • Aug 16, 2016 11:48pm Aug 16, 2016 11:48pm
GBPJPY low in weekly curve. Daily demand area nested in weekly demand area.
H4 broken out of descending trend line off of an old demand area. Waiting for new demand areas to go long:

Weekly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-08-17 GBPJPY-W1.jpg Size: 128 KB


H4:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-08-17 GBPJPY-H4.jpg Size: 127 KB
  • #7,957
  • Aug 17, 2016 8:20am Aug 17, 2016 8:20am
I would love to hear your opinion on this setup on GBPAUD. Is the nested H4 demand valid after the TL break?

Monthly is still in downtrend but reached Monthly demand
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDMonthlyasis.png Size: 39 KB


Weekly seems to be breaking the TL soon
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDWeekly.png Size: 36 KB


Daily breaking TL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDDaily.png Size: 39 KB


H4 broke TL, considering going long at the demand
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDH4.png Size: 36 KB


I will appreciate any comments!
  • #7,958
  • Aug 17, 2016 8:40am Aug 17, 2016 8:40am
hello sir,
I understood how to confirm uptrend(demand levels respected supply levels rejected) vice versa for down trend.
1)But what is the exact way to find out sideways trend ?
2)If we doing analysis on monthly weekly and daily then what you mean by removal of zone? ((i)price touched proximal
ii)price cut through zone (touched distal)
iii) close of candle below distal?
3)please help me to fill attached image
thank a lot
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trend.PNG Size: 45 KB
  • #7,959
  • Aug 17, 2016 9:51am Aug 17, 2016 9:51am
Hi guys and Mr. Alfonso

I have a short set up from yesterday, is a sell at a new supply zone. so far so good
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyh4.PNG Size: 64 KB
passion and discipline
  • #7,960
  • Aug 17, 2016 12:35pm Aug 17, 2016 12:35pm
Quoting shashank0949
hello sir, I understood how to confirm uptrend(demand levels respected supply levels rejected) vice versa for down trend. 1)But what is the exact way to find out sideways trend ? 2)If we doing analysis on monthly weekly and daily then what you mean by removal of zone? ((i)price touched proximal ii)price cut through zone (touched distal) iii) close of candle below distal? 3)please help me to fill attached image thank a lot {image}
hey shashank0949!
i think it is not easy to decide longs or shorts.
example:
1, monthly up, weekly up , daily up => set n forget long at daily demand zone.
2, monthly up ( but monthly supply in control and monthly supply fresh, original), weekly up, daily up.
- set n forget long at daily demand zone is low odds, we need new levels to be created for longs.
- set n forget long at weekly demand zone is the best way to go.
3. monthly up ( but M supply in control, monthly supply is used up), weekly up, daily up
=> set n forget long at daily and weekly demand zone)
4. monthly up ( monthly supply is overshot), weekly up. daily up.
- set n forget long at daily demand zone is low odds, we need new levels to be created for longs.
- set n forget long at weekly demand zone is high odds.
Pursue excellence, and success will follow
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