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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,001
  • Aug 9, 2016 9:11pm Aug 9, 2016 9:11pm
KC Fed not even going to Jackson Hole this year....
https://www.kansascityfed.org/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,002
  • Aug 11, 2016 1:13pm Aug 11, 2016 1:13pm
CSIQ beat down, will ml rebound over time, unless oil stays in the basement. I could see it coming back to $20 by next year. These long-dated flys have very forgiving profit spreads on the P/L. You do have to hold them but not necessarily til expiry...P/L's below show expiry Jan '18 and about a year from now. I tried a 50c fill on this today, no dice, but will be looking later....CSIQ may keep sliding and could look for $10 if/when oil slides to $35 or lower this Fall
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,003
  • Aug 12, 2016 8:20pm Aug 12, 2016 8:20pm
http://www.businessinsider.com/hsbc-...atility-2016-8

"This surprisingly relaxed outlook suggests that we are entering a new volatility regime. Implied volatility is low despite what should have been significant shocks to the market. Implied volatility is low even though the outlook is filled with plausible risks. This suggests that it is likely to take a serious shock now in order to make the market run for cover."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,004
  • Aug 12, 2016 9:20pm Aug 12, 2016 9:20pm
FOR a grinder trender in the neverending bull market I like a Big Kahuna burger.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,005
  • Aug 12, 2016 10:05pm Aug 12, 2016 10:05pm
short vol....VXX now gives some room to find cheap spreads.......$1 meat for a penny?....try it and see, something closer to the money maybe better, but in any case, give it time...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,006
  • Aug 12, 2016 10:33pm Aug 12, 2016 10:33pm
Quoting The Fool
short vol....VXX now gives some room to find cheap spreads.......$1 meat for a penny?....try it and see, something closer to the money maybe better, but in any case, give it time... {image}
Hello,

I am interested in learning about options. Subscribed to your thread. Looks like a huge bundle of knowledge is present in the thread. Much appreciated.

Thanks

Rajesh
  • #14,007
  • Edited 11:20pm Aug 12, 2016 10:54pm | Edited 11:20pm
"new volatility regime"....rrrrright.....it's called an interminable gang rape of the markets by the CB's of the world. When will it end? Idk. Long Vol?......meh, why? Sep 16/23 puts you in the Sep FOMC week, maybe a surprise there could get something going. The Big Kahuna can have the vertical anywhere it is cheap, so long as it is (well) inside the b/e of the accompanying time spread. Ideally, you pay near nothing for the diagonal or calendar.

There will be clear long vol opps you can set up for well in advance, just might be a long wait for those, that's all....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,008
  • Aug 13, 2016 6:18am Aug 13, 2016 6:18am
Quoting The Fool
http://www.businessinsider.com/hsbc-...atility-2016-8 "This surprisingly relaxed outlook suggests that we are entering a new volatility regime. Implied volatility is low despite what should have been significant shocks to the market. Implied volatility is low even though the outlook is filled with plausible risks. This suggests that it is likely to take a serious shock now in order to make the market run for cover."
Carry trade, anyone? I've noticed that several institutions seem to think that's a good idea at the moment. Especially emerging market FX.
You reap what you sow.
  • #14,009
  • Aug 13, 2016 6:23am Aug 13, 2016 6:23am
Did VXX reverse-split recently, TF? It was trading close to 10 when I last looked (about a month ago), now it's about 37! You can tell I've not been doing many vol spreads recently, can't you? Maybe short vol could be a sneaky winner, as you suggested.
You reap what you sow.
  • #14,010
  • Aug 13, 2016 9:26am Aug 13, 2016 9:26am
Quoting NorthTrader
Did VXX reverse-split recently, TF?
https://www.stocksplithistory.com/

Hey, NT. How've you been? Hope you are enjoying Summer.

you can use the split history website to follow splits. VXX did a 1:4 a week or so ago when it was trading $12.xx, so it split up to about $37.

It's interesting to note the names with recent splits. Most are perennial dogturds not worth trading. Others though are the geared names always sliding south - right after the splits, these can be interesting places to look for short plays. Also I see recently JNUG & NUGT
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,011
  • Aug 13, 2016 9:33am Aug 13, 2016 9:33am
Quoting jrajeshkumar
Hello, I am interested in learning about options.
https://www.dough.com/

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/learn
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,012
  • Aug 13, 2016 9:53am Aug 13, 2016 9:53am
Quoting The Fool
Also I see recently JNUG & NUGT
JNUG will do a 10:1 split down and NUGT a 5:1, in effect 8/24 it appears.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,013
  • Aug 13, 2016 11:28am Aug 13, 2016 11:28am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} https://www.dough.com/ https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/learn
Thanks for taking the time to include the education material...
  • #14,014
  • Aug 13, 2016 3:31pm Aug 13, 2016 3:31pm
https://www.yahoo.com/news/rousseff-...212228188.html

Buy rumor, sell fact? EWZ has nearly doubled since $18 low in January.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,015
  • Aug 13, 2016 7:23pm Aug 13, 2016 7:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}https://www.stocksplithistory.com/ Hey, NT. How've you been? Hope you are enjoying Summer.
Yeah thanks TF, I'm not trading much short-term at the moment, just enjoying the summer like you said. Not been following your trades much sorry, but I get the impression that you're recovering your drawdown nicely. Good job

Thanks for that website, very interesting. I searched for VXX and it was all there. The only strange thing was that the description made no mention of it being a VIX ETN, and kind of implied it was Barclays Bank main stock! But no matter, I'm sure the people who use that site know the difference.
You reap what you sow.
  • #14,016
  • Aug 13, 2016 9:55pm Aug 13, 2016 9:55pm
Quoting NorthTrader
Yeah thanks TF, I'm not trading much short-term at the moment, just enjoying the summer like you said. Not been following your trades much sorry, but I get the impression that you're recovering your drawdown nicely. Good job
No, trading sucks. I still hate the motherfucking Central Banks and I would have a party if somebody started blowing them up.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,017
  • Aug 14, 2016 1:53am Aug 14, 2016 1:53am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}No, trading sucks. I still hate the motherfucking Central Banks and I would have a party if somebody started blowing them up.
Oh... I'm sorry to hear that TF. You deserve better

Party? Just tell me where and when. I'll bring some beer.
You reap what you sow.
  • #14,018
  • Aug 15, 2016 7:14pm Aug 15, 2016 7:14pm
...well-place SPY diag if she keeps grinding up....I might take half off on Minutes day but I guess it's a good target for the end of the week - a bounce off 2,200 ..... risked 12c, maybe net back 20c....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,019
  • Aug 15, 2016 7:36pm Aug 15, 2016 7:36pm
this CREE DC cost 13c, it might be worth 18c tomorrow, ER day.....CREE didn't move, price still at mid zone of the DC, so I will have to close out everything to net out a nickel with heavy comm loss.....iv's dropped 7% ahead of the ER.....there are no guarantees, trading options simply sucks when you're in a premium desert....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,020
  • Aug 15, 2016 7:53pm Aug 15, 2016 7:53pm
everything sucks, so fuck everything and fuck everybody

CSCO kitty cost 10c....10 whole cents.....iv's barely moved, but they are nudging up a little bit, and I could see netting out 10 whole centavos. ER's 8/18.

Nothing "wrong" with set-ups....just no iv, no movement, no point in trading vol in a market devoid of it.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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