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Specialize in only one market

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 10, 2016 2:34pm Aug 10, 2016 2:34pm
Hi traders and FF members,

I have been thinking lately about trading ONLY one currency pair/commodities/stock (whatever market you like to trade). There is two reasons why I think it is a good idea. I have a full time job and do not always have much time to spend with the computer going over a lot of different markets. The second reason that have been running through my head is, if you specialize in example GOLD or EUR/USD you should become a "expert" trading the market. Am I wrong?

I opened this thread because I want to discuss the benefits and disadvantages of this type of trading.
  • #2
  • Aug 10, 2016 7:29pm Aug 10, 2016 7:29pm
You have OPEN, HIGH, LOW, CLOSE and Volume. Everything else is derivative. Some just move more than others. Focus on being an expert at "Trading". Even the best Macro traders rarely achieve "expert" status. If you trade the EUR/USD, you are already trading a basket in a sense. I recommend the EURUSD. Low spreads, High Liquidity, Still behaves like all the others but absorbs a bit more shock. Most likely the EURO will fail in the next decade or two unless they pull together.
You can lead a man to knowledge, but you can't make him think.
  • #3
  • Aug 10, 2016 9:18pm Aug 10, 2016 9:18pm
I think that is one way to learn how to become a trading expert.

You could master a single pair and then try out other pairs. Price action and market structure tends to be the same across all pairs. Session timings and daily volatility would be among the changing variables.

Either way, just watch the charts. Nothing can compare to time on the charts.
  • #4
  • Aug 11, 2016 7:25am Aug 11, 2016 7:25am
I think you can trade only one currency pair, that of course has to fit in with your trading plan.

Also having a broader "feel" of what the majors are doing is necessary to know when your pair is more likely
to be in a ranging or trending phase.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #5
  • Aug 11, 2016 8:29am Aug 11, 2016 8:29am
Quoting themanderson
I think that is one way to learn how to become a trading expert. You could master a single pair and then try out other pairs. Price action and market structure tends to be the same across all pairs. Session timings and daily volatility would be among the changing variables. Either way, just watch the charts. Nothing can compare to time on the charts.
Yes. After trading a single pair and get a feel you can try out others. As I said, due my job schedule I do not have much time to spend analyze charts everyday. How much time do you spend everyday on trading?
  • #6
  • Aug 11, 2016 8:36am Aug 11, 2016 8:36am
Quoting Tinderdater
You have OPEN, HIGH, LOW, CLOSE and Volume. Everything else is derivative. Some just move more than others. Focus on being an expert at "Trading". Even the best Macro traders rarely achieve "expert" status. If you trade the EUR/USD, you are already trading a basket in a sense. I recommend the EURUSD. Low spreads, High Liquidity, Still behaves like all the others but absorbs a bit more shock. Most likely the EURO will fail in the next decade or two unless they pull together.
Hi Tinderdater,

I now realize that "expert" is maybe a little to much. In case I decide to trade only EUR/USD, is there any way I can improve my specific EUR/USD trading? It is hard to formulate that question. But what I mean is if there is any specific news, strategies etc to EUR/USD that I can take advantage of.
  • #7
  • Aug 11, 2016 8:41am Aug 11, 2016 8:41am
Quoting swetrader
{quote} Yes. After trading a single pair and get a feel you can try out others. As I said, due my job schedule I do not have much time to spend analyze charts everyday. How much time do you spend everyday on trading?
I honestly can't quantify the amount of hours I've spent in front of charts. I quit my job 7 months ago to dedicate my time to trading.

When I was using the market maker method I would spend at least 3 hours in front of the screen and up to 10 hours. I scrapped that because it was too stressful and took up too much of my time.

I took what I had learned from that method and began using it with candle stick patterns on the daily charts. I'd quickly sweep through every available pair on the daily in about 10 minutes looking for specific patterns at the close of every market day, make note of them in a log book and return to the same pairs at London open and spend about 30 minutes placing pending orders on pivots. If they hadn't hit an hour after open I would close them and go on about my day. The orders that did hit I would monitor them until an hour after open and take some of the profits then and let the rest ride until and hour and a half before London close. That turned out to not be as profitable as I had anticipated.

So, now I trade off the weekly charts. The analysis is quick (maybe 30 minutes at most) and the pairs that have what I'm looking for get pending orders placed. If the orders are activated I hold them at minimum for a week. Some for months. I check the charts every day at market close still just to check up on the actives. But the time I spend in front of a screen has diminished greatly. I have a lot more freedom now and I plan on getting a job just because I'm so bored.

If you're still developing a strategy there is nothing more important than time on the charts. You get to know price action very well and I don't think there is anything more important than that.
  • #8
  • Aug 11, 2016 11:11am Aug 11, 2016 11:11am
Quoting swetrader
Hi traders and FF members, I have been thinking lately about trading ONLY one currency pair/commodities/stock (whatever market you like to trade). There is two reasons why I think it is a good idea. I have a full time job and do not always have much time to spend with the computer going over a lot of different markets. The second reason that have been running through my head is, if you specialize in example GOLD or EUR/USD you should become a "expert" trading the market. Am I wrong? I opened this thread because I want to discuss the benefits and...
I think you will be an expert at what you are doing, but you should follow more currencies to have a more detailed image about the market.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #9
  • Aug 11, 2016 1:32pm Aug 11, 2016 1:32pm
Quoting themanderson
{quote} I honestly can't quantify the amount of hours I've spent in front of charts. I quit my job 7 months ago to dedicate my time to trading. When I was using the market maker method I would spend at least 3 hours in front of the screen and up to 10 hours. I scrapped that because it was too stressful and took up too much of my time. I took what I had learned from that method and began using it with candle stick patterns on the daily charts. I'd quickly sweep through every available pair on the daily in about 10 minutes looking for specific patterns...
Great post. I like that you have tried out some different types of trading, I guess that is the way to find your personal trading style.

I am still developing a strategy for more short/medium (you get what I mean) term trades (some days - max 1 month). If you want, please share some information about your strategy!
  • #10
  • Aug 11, 2016 1:37pm Aug 11, 2016 1:37pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} I think you will be an expert at what you are doing, but you should follow more currencies to have a more detailed image about the market.
Hi.

Yes, it is a very good idea to follow more currency markets but I am still thinking about only trading one major e.g. EUR/USD or USD/JPY.
  • #11
  • Edited 6:39pm Aug 11, 2016 4:16pm | Edited 6:39pm
Quoting swetrader
{quote} Great post. I like that you have tried out some different types of trading, I guess that is the way to find your personal trading style. I am still developing a strategy for more short/medium (you get what I mean) term trades (some days - max 1 month). If you want, please share some information about your strategy!

100% agree with you. The only way to find what works for you is to endure the things that don't.

I use this strategy because it is low maintenance. It begins with analyzing charts just before or after market open. I don't leave the weekly charts because I found that trying to shuffle through time frames gave me more confusion than clarity and caused me to spend a lot of time trying to figure out when to get in. I look for reversal patters such as a solid M formation at the top of charts and solid W formations at the bottom of charts. I wait for those to post and then set pending orders on the wicks of candles in the consolidation zones withing the Ms and Ws. Price may reach back into these areas. I feel inclined to hold these positions longer (weeks to years). I also trade particular candlestick patterns such as variations of morning stars and evening stars, as well as engulfing. I feel inclined to hold these for shorter periods of time (week to weeks) which I close just before market close.

I rarely place market orders. I like setting pending orders with take profits and stop losses. This allows for little maintenance which means little stress for me.


In this example there was a M formation at the top of the chart with a few strong up outside bars into a consolidation zone and a few strong down outside bars out of the consolidation zone. This, for me, qualifies as a M formation in which I set a pending order on wicks of the previous consolidation zone sfter the strong down outside bar posts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNOK.PNG Size: 69 KB
  • #12
  • Aug 11, 2016 7:19pm Aug 11, 2016 7:19pm
Quoting swetrader
{quote} Hi Tinderdater, I now realize that "expert" is maybe a little to much. In case I decide to trade only EUR/USD, is there any way I can improve my specific EUR/USD trading? It is hard to formulate that question. But what I mean is if there is any specific news, strategies etc to EUR/USD that I can take advantage of.
In regards to the EUR/USD specifically?
Non farm payrolls, and sometimes jobs data and ECB announcements may turn your good trade into a bad one very quickly, keep an eye on the economic calendar. If you can scalp them, good for you. I get a few successful scalps on the non farm payrolls every month, but it can be tricky.
Also the EUR/USD often trends harder than you might expect on market opens. When it is trending, there are plenty of fake reversals.
Long term would you buy the Euro? The british have left, terrorism is rampant in france and belgium, the threat of russia is real, if greece and italy and spain turn themselves around and germany pulls the whole mess together, it could go back to 1.23. But I dont see that happening anytime soon. The united states is such a strong currency because its UNITED. So im bearish on EURUSD. I guess what I mean is watch the news too. If its a new low for europe in the news, chances are its a new low for the euro.
You can lead a man to knowledge, but you can't make him think.
  • #13
  • Aug 11, 2016 7:30pm Aug 11, 2016 7:30pm
Quoting swetrader
{quote} Hi. Yes, it is a very good idea to follow more currency markets but I am still thinking about only trading one major e.g. EUR/USD or USD/JPY.
Stay away from the Major pairs. They have the big moves sure but they can hurt you too.
Find a "Friendly" pair on the Daily.
Around 95% of Forex traders are failures. !!!!!!!!!!!
Stands to reason why. 99% are DAY & intraday traders battling manipulation, BS news announcements, FOMC etc.
Forex traders are conditioned from day one to be day & intraday traders, therefore, conditioned to fail

Study any pair with a proven "trending" pattern on a Daily chart & you will find that whilst trending, retracenments within the trend seldom surpasses any candle 2 days back. When it does, the result is more often than not a wave 2 or 4. OR. A trend change.

Try this System using Daily chart to trade.
Min' chart size 1D. SL At least 2 days back (on Daily chart)
"Manual" trailing stop.
SL is moved daily, but not if price is retraceing back towards your SL.
Do not add on until 1st trade is at BE or better.
Don't listen to other peoples opinions. Including mine. Let the charts do the talking.

Clear your charts of the xmas tree look. Only one indicator required.
Look for pairs that are "Trending" At the moment only 2 come to mind. GA & GC.
Make sure the pair is committed to a trend.

2 charts posted to show what to look for & what to avoid.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDDaily.png Size: 28 KB
Without having an understanding of down, you can never appreciate up.
  • #14
  • Aug 12, 2016 12:11am Aug 12, 2016 12:11am
I agree with you. It is better to specialise in one market . By this I mean focusing to develop your technique in one currency pair. If it is the EURUSD you have chosen, then you take a strategy you can develop in that particularl pair. It is not the best trading EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD all at the same time.
  • #15
  • Aug 12, 2016 5:08am Aug 12, 2016 5:08am
Quoting swetrader
{quote} Hi. Yes, it is a very good idea to follow more currency markets but I am still thinking about only trading one major e.g. EUR/USD or USD/JPY.

I don't say you should trade all pairs, but if you want to buy EURUSD and for example EURJPY is bearish you can avoid buying it and sell it. If you find what is moving relative to other pairs and what is moving against, then you can trade one pair more easy. See: forex correlation
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #16
  • Aug 12, 2016 6:23am Aug 12, 2016 6:23am
You could trade your favoured currency pair and keep one eye on the rest using a currency strength meter.
There are many available on this forum.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #17
  • Aug 12, 2016 9:04am Aug 12, 2016 9:04am
Quoting themanderson
{quote} 100% agree with you. The only way to find what works for you is to endure the things that don't. I use this strategy because it is low maintenance. It begins with analyzing charts just before or after market open. I don't leave the weekly charts because I found that trying to shuffle through time frames gave me more confusion than clarity and caused me to spend a lot of time trying to figure out when to get in. I look for reversal patters such as a solid M formation at the top of charts and solid W formations at the bottom of charts. I wait...
Thank you for sharing your trading strategy.
  • #18
  • Aug 12, 2016 9:11am Aug 12, 2016 9:11am
Quoting anonymousey
{quote} Stay away from the Major pairs. They have the big moves sure but they can hurt you too. Find a "Friendly" pair on the Daily. Around 95% of Forex traders are failures. !!!!!!!!!!! Stands to reason why. 99% are DAY & intraday traders battling manipulation, BS news announcements, FOMC etc. Forex traders are conditioned from day one to be day & intraday traders, therefore, conditioned to fail Study any pair with a proven "trending" pattern on a Daily chart & you will find that whilst trending, retracenments within the trend seldom surpasses...
Hi anonymousey. Thank you for your contribution to the thread. If you are planning to post more in this thread please try to keep it at the same font and size because it is just getting messy when you mix up the font/sizes.

The strategy you share seems simple and good. How is your results? What is the indicators in your chart?
  • #19
  • Aug 12, 2016 9:12am Aug 12, 2016 9:12am
Quoting signalmaster
I agree with you. It is better to specialise in one market . By this I mean focusing to develop your technique in one currency pair. If it is the EURUSD you have chosen, then you take a strategy you can develop in that particularl pair. It is not the best trading EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD all at the same time.
Hi signalmaster. I am planning to only trade one pair but still follow the major pairs like said before in the thread.
  • #20
  • Aug 12, 2016 9:14am Aug 12, 2016 9:14am
Quoting Shabs19
You could trade your favoured currency pair and keep one eye on the rest using a currency strength meter. There are many available on this forum.
Hi Shabs19. That may be a good idea. Never had any experience with a currency strength meter so not 100% sure how to use one correctly.
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