AceTraderFx : Intra-day Market Moving News and Views on Majors

BOJ will support growth and be heedful to risks posed by the global economy

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
05 Aug 2016 01:05GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Reuters just reported Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said today that the government would work with the Bank of Japan to use all policy tools to support growth while paying heed to risks posed by the global economy.
Japan's economy continues to recover moderately despite some weakness, Aso told reporters after a cabinet meeting, noting downside risks such as a slowdown in China and other emerging markets and Britain's decision to exit the European Union.

He was reappointed to his post in a cabinet reshuffle on Wednesday, also said he would make a decision on the increase in issuance of 40-year government bonds based on careful dialogue with market participants.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has sought to lift the economy out of two decades of stagnation through a three-pronged mix of big government spending, ultra-loose monetary policy and structural reforms.
While pay increases and higher spending are key for the success of Abenomics, wage gains inflated by low prices may not spur private consumption, which remains sluggish.

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AceTraderFx Aug 05: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Aug 2016 09:01GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Reuters just reported Italian seasonally adjusted industrial output unexpectedly fell for a second consecutive month in June, national statistics office ISTAT said on Friday, signaling continued weak growth for the euro zone's third-biggest economy.

Industrial output dropped 0.4 percent in June after declining 0.6 percent in May, far below the median forecast in a Reuters' poll of 14 analysts estimating a 0.3 percent gain.
Italian output shows a close correlation with gross domestic product (GDP), which has faltered this year after recovering in 2015 from three years of recession.

Italy's GDP expanded 0.3 percent in the first quarter from the previous one. Preliminary second quarter GDP is scheduled to be published on Aug. 12.
Italian manufacturing activity grew at its slowest rate in 18 months in July, PMI data showed earlier this week, and industrial orders have slumped twice since March.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi took power a little over two years ago pledging to revive economic growth. He now faces darkening growth prospects ahead of a crucial referendum over constitutional changes in the autumn that risks triggering the collapse of his government.
Renzi has targeted 1.2 percent growth for this year, but most analysts now expect GDP to expand less than 1 percent, while Britain's vote to leave the European Union is expected to hurt growth next year.

In June, industrial output was weak across the board, with production of consumer and investment goods and energy declining from the month before, while output of intermediate items was flat.
On a work-day adjusted year-on-year basis, output in June fell 1.0 percent, compared with a 0.6 percent decline in May. The media forecast was for a 1.0 percent gain on the year in June.

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AceTraderFx Aug 08: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
08 Aug 2016 01:16GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Reuters just reported the Bank of Japan must conduct a thorough assessment of the effects of its existing stimulus programme to consider how best to achieve its 2 percent inflation target, BOJ expanded stimulus on July 29 by doubling purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETF), yielding to pressure from the government and financial markets for bolder action.
It also said it will conduct an assessment of the effects of negative interest rates and its massive asset-buying programme in September, suggesting a major overhaul of its programme may be forthcoming.
Reuters then reported stark divisions in the views of Bank of Japan board members were highlighted on Monday, with some defending unlimited easing of monetary policy and others arguing the BOJ had done enough - to the point of driving big market swings and sapping bond market liquidity.

The debate underscores the challenges the central bank face as it attempts to address stagnant price growth and entrenched economic weakness with a dwindling set of policy tools.
The BOJ expanded stimulus at the July 28-29 meeting by doubling purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETF), yielding to pressure from the government and market for bolder action, but the move fell short of market expectations.

The BOJ said it will assess at its September meeting the effects of its negative interest rates on some bank deposits and its massive asset-buying programme - suggesting an overhaul of its stimulus programme may be in the works.
Board members Takehiro Sato and Takahide Kiuchi, both of whom are economists, dissented to the decision to expand ETF purchases, arguing that it would distort market functions and expose the bank's balance sheet to excessive risk.

The summary of the July debate offered no clues to what specific policy steps could result from the BOJ's assessment of its existing stimulus programme.

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AceTraderFx Aug 08: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
08 Aug 2016 09:03GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Reuters just reported investor sentiment in the euro zone recovered in August, a survey showed today, as markets digested the initial shock of Britain's vote to leave the European Union and took a sanguine view of its future impact.

The Frankfurt-based Sentix research group's index rose to 4.2 from 1.7 in July. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a reading of 3.0.
Last week's move by the Bank of England to cut interest rates and unleash billions of pounds of stimulus has also heartened investors, with a recession in Britain now appearing less likely, Sentix said.
Reflecting the improved mood, the sub-index measuring expectations rose to 4.8 from -2.0 in July.
However, the sub-index gauging the euro zone's current conditions deteriorated to 3.8 from 5.5, marking the lowest reading since February last year.

The euro zone economy has so far showed a degree of resilience to Britain's shock vote to leave the EU, with euro zone economic sentiment improving last month.

An index tracking Germany showed the mood in Europe's largest economy improved to 19.8 from 18.4. Investors were more positive about the outlook for Germany and the index measuring expectations rose to 7.0 from 2.7.
Economists also expect Europe's powerhouse to weather the impact of Brexit better than originally feared.

The DIW economic institute said last week economic growth in Germany would be reduced by 0.3 percent as a result of the British vote. It had previously forecast a reduction of half a percentage point.
The Ifo economic institute sees Brexit shaving 0.1 percentage points off growth this year.

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AceTraderFx Aug 09: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Aug 2016 01:04GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Cable tumbles in early Asian trading on 'dovish' comments by MPC member Ian McCafferty despite release of upbeat U.K. data.
British retail spending bounced back in July as sales promotions and good weather outweighed any immediate concern about the consequences of Britain's decision to leave the European Union, a survey showed on Tuesday.

The British Retail Consortium reported on retail spending in July was 1.9 percent higher than a year earlier, the biggest rise in six months and up sharply from 0.2 percent growth in June, when bad weather added to uncertainty around June 23's referendum.
On a like-for-like basis - a measure which strips out changes in floorspace and corresponds more closely with retailers' results - sales were up 1.1 percent on the year in July, compared with a 0.5 percent dip in June.
But economists have warned against using retail sales as a guide to the health of the economy, due to the data's sensitivity to the weather and because they expect it to lag other drivers of a post-referendum slowdown.

The BoE and others expect business and housing investment to slow first, and for consumer spending to hold up until the inflationary effects of sterling's post-referendum slump and a likely rise in unemployment hit households.
Next year the BoE predicts real-terms household consumption growth will slow to just 1 percent, less than half the rate it forecasts for this year.

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AceTraderFx Aug 09: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Aug 2016 09:10GMT

GBP/USD - ...... The British pound fell sharply to 1.2979 in Asia on dovish comments from BoE's McCafferty (see previous MMN), then lower to session low at 1.2967 at European open.
Later, cable staged a short-covering rebound to 1.3003 in European morning before retreating again.

Price showed muted reaction to the release of UK industrial data.
In a report, the U.K. Office for National Statistics said that manufacturing production decreased by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in June, worse than expectations for a decline of 0.2% and following a drop of 0.6% a month earlier that was revised down from an initial 0.5% decrease.

The report also showed that industrial production inched up by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in June, in line with forecasts and following a decline of 0.6% in the preceding month that was revised from the previous estimate of a 0.5% decrease.

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AceTraderFx Aug 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Aug 2016 01:32GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Reuters reported Japanese machinery orders rose more than expected in June in a sign that companies are gradually becoming more willing to increase capital expenditure.
Companies also expect core machinery orders, a leading indicator of capital expenditure, to rise in July-September, suggesting that business investment is starting to stabilise after a rocky performance in the previous quarter.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has compiled a stimulus package that focuses on infrastructure, which should support capital spending heading into next year, but risks remain that overseas economic turmoil could curb business investment.
Core machinery orders rose 8.3 percent, well ahead of the median estimate for a 3.1 percent increase, Cabinet Office data showed on Wednesday.
Manufacturers' orders rose 17.7 percent, while orders from the services sector rose 2.1 percent, the data showed.

Manufacturers surveyed by the Cabinet Office forecast that core orders will rise 5.2 percent in July-September, which compares with a 9.2 percent decrease in April-June.
Abe's cabinet last week approved an economic stimulus package with 13.5 trillion yen in fiscal measures as a precaution in case Britain's exit from the European Union undermines global economic conditions.

Many policymakers and economists have said capital expenditure is crucial because it creates jobs and increases productivity, both of which Japan's economy needs to be more vibrant.

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AceTraderFx Aug 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Aug 2016 02:18GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr gains respite in subdued Asian trading as Japanese financial markets are closed for Mountain Day holiday (this is an extra day off - Japan now has 16 public holidays a year - became law in 2014 but is just taking effect).

Despite initial weakness to 101.03 at Asian open, buying interest emerged above yesterday's low made in New York at 100.97 and lifted the pair, suggesting range trading is in store until European open.
For now, bids are reported at 101.00-100.85 area with stops below there, more stops are touted below last week's low of 100.68.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 101.40/50 with stops reported above 101.60, suggesting selling dlr on recovery due to broad-based weakness in the greenback in last 2 days is favoured.

Later today, U.S. will release the usual weekly jobless claims and July import and export prices.
The most important U.S. data for the week is Friday's key retail sales n traders are paying attention if July's reading will show a monthly increase 0.4% vs previous reading of 0.6%, if actual comes below forecast, then expect further usd bashing.

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AceTraderFx Aug 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Aug 2016 08:26GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Reuters reported that the German Economy Ministry pointed out on the dynamism of German economy has slowed somewhat, and the external risks have increased largely due to Brexit vote in Britain.
While German growth remains robust but it was weaker in the second quarter, the private consumption probably increased less strongly in the second quarter than previously.
Economists from the International Monetary Fund have urged the European Central Bank to concentrate on asset purchases rather than cutting its already negative interest rates again, if it needs to stimulate the euro zone economy again.

A blog published on the Fund's website suggested the ECB had limited room for further substantial rate cuts without hurting the profitability of banks, which in turn might have negative knock-on effects.
And with additional rate cuts could weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy if lending rates fail to adjust or customers withdraw cash from banks.
Instead, it suggested in focusing on asset purchases would raise asset prices and aggregate demand, while also supporting bank lending. This would also facilitate the pass-through of improved bank funding conditions to the real economy.

The paper, which carried the caveat that it represents only the view of its authors - Andy Jobst and Huidan Lin, both economists in the IMF's European Department - added that negative rates had been successful in pushing down borrowing costs as well as supporting the ECB's programme to buy more than 1.5 trillion euros ($1.67 trillion) of bonds.

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AceTraderFx Aug 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views DLR/MAJORS

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Aug 2016 01:05GMT

DLR/MAJORS - The greenback rose in New York afternoon on Thursday where some traders attributed to hawkish comments by Fed official. Reuters reported the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates further this year, a top U.S. central banker said in an interview published on Thursday, reflecting improved labor market conditions and the likelihood that inflation is heading higher.
San Francisco Fed Official was quoted to say that as the economy gets closer to its goals, they can again pull our foot off the gas a bit and hopefully execute a nice, soft landing over the next couple of years.

President John Williams told the Washington Post in an interview conducted this week. Asked if the Fed's gradual rate increases should include any rate hikes this year, He replied that in my view, it does.
The Fed raised benchmark U.S. rates last December for the first time in nearly a decade, but did not continue to lift them as it had anticipated in order to cushion the economy from the slowdown in China and financial market turmoil.
John Williams had at the beginning of the year expected the Fed to raise rates several times in 2016, but global events have caused him to pencil in "a little more gradual pace of increases," he told the Washington Post.

Williams is not a voter this year on the Fed's policy-setting panel, but his comments are closely watched because his views are seen as reflecting those of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who was his boss when she ran the San Francisco Fed before she moved to Washington in 2010.

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AceTraderFx Aug 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views DLR/MAJORS

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Aug 2016 03:02GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr pares initial gain ahead of Tokyo lunch break. Despite a brief pullback to 101.77 on profit taking following overnight strong gain to 102.05 in New York afternoon as gain to record highs in the S&P 500, Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq on the same day boosted risk sentiment, another bout of broad-based yen-selling emerged after the Nikkei rose at the open sent the dlr to intra-day high of 102.21, however, price quickly retreated on lack of follow-through buying.

Looks like range trading below 102.21 is in store until European open.
However, intra-day dlr's broad-based gain in the dlr (except vs sterling) suggests buying the pair on dips is recommended.
Bids are noted at 102.00 and more at 101.80-70 with stops touted below 101.50.
Offers are tipped at 102.20/25 with stops above 102.30, however, more selling interest is reported at 102.60/65.

Although there has not been any important U.S. data so far this week to influence price movement, market is eager awaiting the release of U.S. retail sales for further clues on the state of the U.S. economy especially after yesterday's upbeat comments by San Francisco Fed President John Williams (see previous update for details).
Street forecast for July monthly retail sales to come in at 0.2% vs previous reading of 0.4%.
However, if actual figures turns out to a a tepid growth, then be ready to sell the greenback.

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AceTraderFx Aug 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Aug 2016 03:08GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1156... Despite opening slightly higher in New Zealand, the single currency met renewed selling at 1.1173 and resumed its fall from Friay's high at 1.1222 towards 1.1154 at Asian open and continues to remain under pressure in Asian morning, due partly to cross-selling of euro vs sterling.

Trading is expected to be relatively thin today as Italy and France will remain closed for market holiday and offers are now seen at 1.1170/80 and more above at 1.1190/00 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.1100/10, suggesting choppy trading with downside bias would be seen.

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AceTraderFx Aug 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Aug 2016 02:34GMT

EUR/USD - .... The single currency rallied from yesterday's Asian low at 1.1154 to session high at 1.1203 in New York morning due to active-cross buying of euro vs sterling (eur/gbp rose to a fresh 2-1/2 year high at 0.8703). However, price pared its gains and retreated to 1.1175 at Asian open today.

Market focus will now be on the release of EZ and Germany ZEW sentiment data at 09:00GMT.
Downbeat data would signal at spillovers from Brexit and send euro lower.

Bids are now lowered to 1.1160/70 and more below at 1.1130/40 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.1220/30, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen.

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AceTraderFx Aug 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Aug 2016 04:00GMT

GBP/USD - ...... The British pound met renewed selling at 1.2945 in early Europe yesterday and tumbled to session low at 1.2865 in New York morning on active cross-selling of sterling especially vs euro.
However, cable pared its losses n staged a short-covering rebound to 1.2893 at Asian open.

UK will release a slew of inflation figures at 08:30GMT. Forecasts for headline readings CPI mm and yy are -0.1% n 0.5% vs prevoius readings of 0.2% and 0.5% respectively.

Offers are now raised to 1.2910/20 and more above at 1.2930/40 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.2840/50, suggesting choppy trading with downside bias would be seen.

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AceTraderFx Aug 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Aug 2016 09:02GMT

EUR/USD - ...... The single currency from intra-day 7-week high of 1.1277 on profit-taking after mildly downbeat ZEW sentiment index. The mood among German analysts and investors improved slightly in August, a survey showed on Tuesday, in a further sign that the impact of Britain's decision to leave the European Union on Europe's biggest economy could be limited.
Mannheim-based ZEW said its monthly survey showed a rise in its economic sentiment index to 0.5 points in August after a fall to -6.8 the previous month. However, that was still weaker than the Reuters consensus forecast for a reading of 1.8.
A separate gauge of current conditions jumped to 57.6 points from 49.8 in July. This was better than the Reuters consensus forecast which predicted a reading of 50.0.
Reuters just reported the euro zone's trade surplus with the rest of the world grew by more than expected in June, as the currency bloc's imports fell faster than its exports, the European Union's statistics office said on Tuesday.
With unadjusted exports falling 2 percent and imports falling 5 percent compared with the same period last year, the euro zone's trade surplus increased to 29.2 billion euros ($32.91 billion), above the 25.8 billion expected in a Reuters poll of six analysts.

For the European Union as a whole, the trade surplus fell slightly to 7.7 billion euros in June, compared to June 2015.
In the first six months of the year, EU exports and imports of energy fell sharpest, followed by raw materials. There was a slight increase in the import of chemicals as well as machinery and vehicles into the EU in the January to June period, Eurostat said.

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AceTraderFx Aug 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Aug 2016 01:16GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Despite yesterday's selloff to 99.54 on broad-based buying of yen, the greenback rallied to 100.53 in New York on hawkish comments from Fed officials.
Dlr found renewed buying at 100.16 in Australia today and rose to 100.68 at Tokyo open due to the initial rise in Nikkei-225.

Market focus is now on the release of FOMC minutes today at 18:00GMT.
Traders will be looking closely for hints on when policymakers would look to hike interest rates next.

Bids are now seen at 100.20/30 and more below at 100.00/10 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 101.20/30, suggesting choppy trading with upside bias would be seen.

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AceTraderFx Aug 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Aug 2016 04:03GMT

GBP/USD - ...... The British pound rallied yesterday after the release of upbeat UK inflation figures and hit session high at 1.3051 in New York afternoon, helped by active cross-buying of sterling especially vs euro.
Cable ratcheted higher to 1.3073 in Australia today, however, price swiftly pared its gains and retreated to 1.3026 ahead of Asian open n continues to remain under pressure.

Mkt focus is now on the release of UK claimant count and ILO unemployment rate at 08:30GMT. Whilst the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%, the claimant count is expected to rise to 10.0K from previous reading of 0.4K.

Bids are now lowered to 1.2980/90 and more below at 1.2960/70 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.3090/00, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen.

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AceTraderFx Aug 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Aug 2016 01:22GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Japan's exports tumbled in July at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis with a resurgent yen and weakness in overseas economies weighing on overseas shipments - a warning that Japan cannot rely on exports to drive growth.
Economists say there is a growing risk that weakness in exports will persist as global economic uncertainty shows little sign of receding, which could undermine Japanese policymakers' efforts to re-energise the economy.
Exports in July fell due to lower shipments of cars to the United States, ships to Central America and steel to Italy, the data showed.

Exports to China - Japan's largest trading partner - fell an annual 12.7 percent in July, extending the 10.0 percent decline seen in June.
U.S.-bound shipments fell 11.8 percent year-on year, versus a 6.5 percent annual decline in the previous month.

The yen has risen around 20 percent versus the dollar so far this yea and further gains would cut deeply into exporters' earnings and increase deflationary pressure by lowering import prices.
The Bank of Japan will conduct a "comprehensive review" of its quantitative easing and negative interest rate policy at its meeting next month after repeatedly pushing back the timing for its 2 percent inflation target.
Some economists say the BOJ could use the review to ease monetary policy, potentially weakening the yen if bond yields decline further.

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AceTraderFx Aug 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Aug 2016 01:09GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The greenback proved quite tricky to trade as despite initial rise from Asian low at 99.65 to 100.35, price briefly retreated to 99.74 in early Europe before rising to intra-day high at 100.50 in Europe.
However, dlr pared its gains n dropped to 99.85 in New York afternoon before rebounding again to 100.44 at Asian open today.

Since there is no major economic data due today, price is likely to trade in choppy fashion.

Bids are now seen at 99.80/90 and more below at 99.60/70 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 100.90/00.

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AceTraderFx Aug 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Aug 2016 02:09GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Although the greenback opened significantly higher to 100.92 in New Zealand today on weekend news of comments from BoJ's Kuroda (see previous MMN), profit-taking offers there capped intra-day gains and price retreated sharply to 100.30 ahead of Asian open.
Dlr pared its losses and staged a recovery to 100.75 at Tokyo open before retreating again.

Since there is no major economic data due today, further choppy trading would be seen.
Bids are now seen at 100.20/30 and more below at 100.00/10 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 101.20/30.

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