Reliable ECN broker with good USDTRY or USDZAR swap | Forex Factory

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Reliable ECN broker with good USDTRY or USDZAR swap

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 2, 2016 8:10am Aug 2, 2016 8:10am
Anyone can recommend ECN broker with good swap for USDTRY or USDZAR for long term carry trade?
Of course those broker must allow 1:100 above leverage for these exotic pair.
Any recommendation?
  • #2
  • Aug 2, 2016 1:13pm Aug 2, 2016 1:13pm
Quoting amenlo9
Anyone can recommend ECN broker with good swap for USDTRY or USDZAR for long term carry trade? Of course those broker must allow 1:100 above leverage for these exotic pair. Any recommendation?
Hi Amenlo,

While I don't have a recommendation for you, I was curious about your approach and was wondering if you would be willing to share your thoughts. If not, I understand.

In order to earn swap (rollover interest) on USD/TRY, you must short the pair. Carry trading is a long term trading strategy, and if you look at the monthly chart for USD/TRY it's been trending upwards for the past several years.

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Any swap you earn could be more than offset by losses on your short position, if the price continues higher. Do you believe the uptrend in USD/TRY will reverse soon? Also, I'm curious how you would apply 100:1 leverage to a long term carry trading strategy. In my experience, carry traders tend to use much less leverage.
  • #3
  • Aug 2, 2016 6:21pm Aug 2, 2016 6:21pm
hi mate cant see a big profit from the try sell swap , but zar and Mexican are much bigger sell swap
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  • #4
  • Edited 2:27pm Aug 3, 2016 6:09am | Edited 2:27pm
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} Hi Amenlo, While I don't have a recommendation for you, I was curious about your approach and was wondering if you would be willing to share your thoughts. If not, I understand. In order to earn swap (rollover interest) on USD/TRY, you must short the pair. Carry trading is a long term trading strategy, and if you look at the monthly chart for USD/TRY it's been trending upwards for the past several years. {image} Any swap you earn could be more than offset by losses on your short position, if the price continues higher. Do you believe...
this is how you play the game...minimum time period 1-2 years of open trades

you create this cocktail of positive swaps...case in point....this pool earns $1000 a week...$52000 a year

also hedging any dolllar moves with a mix of usd buys and usd sell to prevent portfolio overhung

DD with this strategy is 30%

*testing theory on demo

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  • #5
  • Aug 3, 2016 2:09pm Aug 3, 2016 2:09pm
Quoting avibe
{quote} this is how you play the game...minimum time period 1-2 years of open trades you create this cocktail of positive swaps...case in point....this pool earns $1000 a week...$52000 a year also hedging any dolllar moves with a mix of usd buys and usd sell to prevent portfolio overhung DD with this strategy is 30% *testing theory on demo {image}
Hi Avibe,

To clarify, you've been testing this theory for a little over a week, and so far you've earned $1422.68 in swaps and lost $16,334.58. Have I read this correctly? What's your cutoff point if your losses get worse?
  • #6
  • Aug 3, 2016 2:17pm Aug 3, 2016 2:17pm
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} Hi Avibe, To clarify, you've been testing this theory for a little over a week, and so far you've earned $1422.68 in swaps and lost $16,334.58. Have I read this correctly? What's your cutoff point if your losses get worse?
Hi Jason sorry for posting half a picture....

Those are open trades so 16k is floating pnl thus far...

am testing $100k demo...1:500 leverage...

my theory is max dd in 1-2 years will be between 30-40k...

meanwhile each year earning 52k in swaps....by year 2...rake in $104 000 in pure profits...enough to cover any floating loss during liquidation ..


risk is if central banks change rates ...remember LTCM in 1999?
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  • #7
  • Aug 3, 2016 2:42pm Aug 3, 2016 2:42pm
Quoting avibe
{quote} Hi Jason sorry for posting half a picture.... Those are open trades so 16k is floating pnl thus far... am testing $100k demo...
Thanks for your reply, Avibe

Again, please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems I did read this correctly. You are floating a 16k loss on your demo after running this strategy for less than 2 weeks. (I'm assuming this time since you said you earn 1k per week in swaps, and so far you've earned 1.4k) What makes you believe your risk is limited to 40k over 2 years?
  • #8
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:51am Aug 4, 2016 11:51am
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} Thanks for your reply, Avibe Again, please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems I did read this correctly. You are floating a 16k loss on your demo after running this strategy for less than 2 weeks. (I'm assuming this time since you said you earn 1k per week in swaps, and so far you've earned 1.4k) What makes you believe your risk is limited to 40k over 2 years?
24hrs later this pool has earned $468.5 in positive swap...while dd has decreased...

to answer your question 40k max dd is a bit biased on my side


looking at past data...this strategy would not have survived 2014- Ruble devaluation

2015 - CHF meltdown

2015 ZaR, TRY, MXN crush...shorts were killed...unless you also take long bets on their stockmarkets..

overall...good idea...but be careful with black swans

only a hedge fund can pull off such a carry strategy

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  • #9
  • Aug 4, 2016 11:30pm Aug 4, 2016 11:30pm
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  • #10
  • Aug 6, 2016 3:38am Aug 6, 2016 3:38am
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  • #11
  • Aug 6, 2016 4:15am Aug 6, 2016 4:15am
Quoting avibe
{image}
hi mate well done
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  • #12
  • Aug 6, 2016 4:25am Aug 6, 2016 4:25am
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} Thanks for your reply, Avibe Again, please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems I did read this correctly. You are floating a 16k loss on your demo after running this strategy for less than 2 weeks. (I'm assuming this time since you said you earn 1k per week in swaps, and so far you've earned 1.4k) What makes you believe your risk is limited to 40k over 2 years?
well Jason I have seen some very good traders using the swap I am one of them , just so people can understand no broker including fxcm like giving money away I have had one account stoped by a broker because I use the positive swap to make money thay did pay up , it does work if people have the dollers in the account to keep spikes at bay ,not written in books ;;;;;;;;;;;; WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN , AND WHAT GOES DOWN MUST GO UP , just look at the charts for historical highs and lows and work out the positive swaps
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  • #13
  • Aug 9, 2016 3:08pm Aug 9, 2016 3:08pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} well Jason I have seen some very good traders using the swap I am one of them , just so people can understand no broker including fxcm like giving money away I have had one account stoped by a broker because I use the positive swap to make money thay did pay up , it does work if people have the dollers in the account to keep spikes at bay ,not written in books ;;;;;;;;;;;; WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN , AND WHAT GOES DOWN MUST GO UP , just look at the charts for historical highs and lows and work out the positive swaps
Hi Aussi,

First, congratulations on using swap successfully as part of your trading strategy! However, I would like to address a misunderstanding you have about FXCM. We have no problem with our clients using a swap-based trading strategy.
  • #14
  • Aug 9, 2016 3:13pm Aug 9, 2016 3:13pm
Quoting avibe
{quote} 24hrs later this pool has earned $468.5 in positive swap...while dd has decreased... to answer your question 40k max dd is a bit biased on my side looking at past data...this strategy would not have survived 2014- Ruble devaluation 2015 - CHF meltdown 2015 ZaR, TRY, MXN crush...shorts were killed...unless you also take long bets on their stockmarkets.. overall...good idea...but be careful with black swans only a hedge fund can pull off such a carry strategy {image}
Hi Avibe,

Thanks for your reply and for continuing to share updates on the performance of this strategy. I'm sure I'm not the only one curious about how it will play out over the long run. So far, the day-to-day volatility in P/L has been quite dramatic!
  • #15
  • Aug 9, 2016 5:21pm Aug 9, 2016 5:21pm
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} Hi Aussi, First, congratulations on using swap successfully as part of your trading strategy! However, I would like to address a misunderstanding you have about FXCM. We have no problem with our clients using a swap-based trading strategy.
I have no misunderstanding Jason
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  • #16
  • Aug 9, 2016 9:41pm Aug 9, 2016 9:41pm
Earning via swap is something pretty long shot, i would say surely better ways to earn available??
  • #17
  • Aug 9, 2016 9:48pm Aug 9, 2016 9:48pm
Quoting Fedricks
Earning via swap is something pretty long shot, i would say surely better ways to earn available??
like ?
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  • #18
  • Aug 10, 2016 5:27am Aug 10, 2016 5:27am
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} So far, the day-to-day volatility in P/L has been quite dramatic!


so true...update thus far..

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  • #19
  • Aug 10, 2016 5:35am Aug 10, 2016 5:35am
Quoting avibe
{quote} so true...update thus far.. {image}
well done and keep the faith in the swap trading no matter what the brokers are saying here
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  • #20
  • Edited 10:41am Aug 10, 2016 10:23am | Edited 10:41am
Quoting avibe
{quote} so true...update thus far.. {image}
Thanks for the continued updates, Avibe! Please know despite what Aussi says I'd love for you to have success swap trading.

I have questions about this particular strategy only because of the high amount of leverage you need to implement it. You mentioned having a 30% drawdown when the Floating P/L was -15k, so I assume your demo account started with a 50k balance. You also said "only a hedge fund can pull off such a carry strategy". How much equity do you think it would take to make this strategy viable over the long run in a real account?
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