XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

We've been posting about looking to trade the bounce off support in the hope of getting in early for a break-out of the major trend line resistance level.

Price tested it, but resistance held again.

Trade your levels!

I trade monthly charts with 10,000 pip+ targets in currencies now. A 2,000 pip knee-jerk reaction to surprise economic data, a not altogether uncommon occurrence, isn't something I concern myself with anymore, other than to add to my positions. The larger the time scale you trade on, the far less stressful (not to mention, more profitable) trading becomes. It just requires a little more confidence in your own analysis and a lot more patience for your trades to set up and pay off. Now I have better ways to find excitement than biting my nails (figuratively -- nasty habit, that) while watching 1-minute charts like I used to when I started scalping years ago, not to mention a lot more free time to enjoy my retirement.

You were around here years ago when Xtrade and Beebs and I posted regularly, so you know I made a good amount of money trading gold on the way down. going short within $2 of the 2012 top. I plan to make even more this time on the way back up. The eight banks that hold roughly 50% of all gold and silver paper short positions have lost hundreds of billions so far this year, and one had to be bailed out last week of their gold short position (I've seen two suggestions that it was Scotiabank). While it's possible they could keep issuing increasingly large naked shorts hoping to drive silver and gold prices down enough to recover their losses, and there's a prominent pundit who says exactly that (but he's a metal permabear who still denies we're in a bull market), I think the global economy is working against them, and the bailout of one of their members shows their resolve and resources are weakening.

JP Morgan, having accumulated the largest physical silver holdings in history, has a good hedge against their own loses, but I think the smaller of the eight will have to start exiting out of their short positions on pullbacks to start recovering their losses and get on the winning side of the trade which will force the rest to follow suit. As someone else posted, we're about at the downtrend line drawn from the 2011-2012 highs for gold, so it's make-or-break time for the the eight.

If we don't see a full-scale reversal, not just a short-term pull-back, buyers are going to step in on mass and push gold through the descending trend line, and even the permabears will have to concede we're in a bull market if that happens, and while the eight may have a lot of money, they can't stem the tide of the world buying into a confirmed bull market. I expected to see a further pullback in the Asian market open to take advantage of Friday's momentum, but now it's the start of the European session already and there's still no continuation of the pullback. If we don't see it before the North American open, then that $35 drop may have been all there is.

Gold has short balance and market phase is range. On last week we had top and now, i think, we will see movement to bottom of it.

hello guys how are you today? this is my view and analysis on GOLD today

Although you stated what you do - you were also offering advice to others. Which why bother much with entry point if a wide stop is used?

And I really wish people would talk in dollars since some of us actually trade gold and not the currency (which it really is not but that's beside the point) - pips equivalence in points depends on how many decimal points a broker quotes in. But a US. dollar is a U.S. dollar is a U.S. dollar.

In any case I would think if someone trades just like you your advice may help. If not .....

That's why I prefaced my response the way I did and didn't offer any entry or exit suggestions for that reply, just generalities on comparative strengths and weaknesses. To clarify pips, I used the same 5 decimal places (3 for Yen pairs) Forex Factory displays on Market charts. In other words, 1,000 pips would be to the second decimal place (i.e. cents in U.S. dollar terms) and 10,000 pips would be to the first decimal place (i.e. dimes in U.S. dollar terms), moving it a further two places to the left for Yen pairs.

Honestly, I usually think in terms of "cents" as well when I'm looking at my positions, even though it makes no sense for many currency pairs, and I make my trades based on whole and half "cents" and mostly ignore less significant digits. I apologize for any confusion.

I'll look to long ~1290-1295 if price keeps moving as it is right now and rejects there. Meanwhile looking for a rejection on the 4H in the 1324-1305 area.

If neither price points gets rejected upward I will be waiting for the W1 trendline and the demand zone down there (main scenario - W1 trendline gets temporarily broken and 1263-1250 gets rejected, trapping bears).

For now have a short stop set under yesterday's low, based on unsuccessful rejection upward from D1 trendline and break under it in last 2 trading days. Moving SL to BE after price moves 30-40 pips in the trade's direction

Here's a chart

Looking at monthly chart.

hello guys this is my analysis and strategy for gold today, hope its can help you

My Gold Analysis...

maybe a good chance for shorts today

Short trade didn't trigger. Took some willpower to not open a short position at 1342 deleting the sell stop

Now I'm looking at 1358-1367 to see if there is enough momentum to break up or if the area will get rejected and price will accumulate some more.

Chart

Gold is coming to the best point for open short, but you should wait for conformation on less time frame

my analysis and strategy for GOLD today,,,

did not do well yesterday but if it works today or this week at all, d1

There is a shooting star candlestick on the four-hour time-frame below the resistance at $1,355, so we might see a move to the downside, but I doubt that's the end of the rally.

U.S. dollar has been weakening last couple of days which means gold strengthens.

Does nobody here include the time element? XAg is burning time due to the fast rise earlier and XAU does not look any different to me.There is easy money to be made waiting for short down moves which again and again come back but do not reach as far as the pivotal high

don't see price going past 1355 today I think we will go down to at least 1345 waiting for 15.30GMT I think the new will make it kick off

Looks like volume is dropping again, another wait n see?