Agility TRADER - Automate your ideas and expand your mind

Davec
i want to say how happy I am with your wonderful work
I have downloaded the agility trader onto my computer. it seems to work as it has taken a couple of trades already.
I have backtested it with your program. I am not sure that it is working correctly. do I need to get the companion program. If so how much is it and how do I pay.
would you explain how I can program the Traders Dynamic index into the agility trader
I will be greatful if you can help me with this

thanks a million for your work

Geoff Youlden

Set file copy is attached to post.
Test date range is 2016.04.01 - 2016.06.30
Equity graph

In my videos I have explained the differences between MT4 and Agility Trader's methodology.

Having reviewed the results on a trade by trade basis, I noticed that MT4 missed a sell trade on 4th April at 1200 which, as result, put the trading sequence out of kilter because further trades are dependent on other trades not being opened. The first trade in MT4 occurred on my platform on 5th April at 0900. At that stage Agility Trader still had the trade of 4th April 0900 opened and this is characteristic of the differences in trades. I can only assume that MT4 does not factor in a lookback from the beginning of the trade period. When Agility Trader fetches the data for a trading period, it allows for sufficient data prior to the trade period to be included so that the calculations are effective right from the beginning of the trade period.

The other significant point which I explained in my videos is the source of the data. It would be impossible to perform optimization on actual tick data because of the processing time involved. Agility Trader uses tick data amalgamated into the various time series based data and always takes the most pessimistic view and that is that the Stop Loss is processed before any Take Profit calculations. In actual fact the Take Profit may have been reached before the Stop Loss but that is the trade off for speed of processing and given that it is very unlikely that both targets will be reached within the same bar, it is a reasonable but safe assumption that is made.

In summary, you should always be aware that even a slightly different source of data and use of methodology can result in different results.

I have sent you a PM.

A HITCH HIKERS GUIDE TO PROFITABLE TRADING - eighth instalment
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Support and Resistance - A great majority of the time, trading continues in the absence of significant short term news but in the general direction of the established trend. Quite often the pattern will resort to channel trading as shown below with support and resistance points being clearly identifiable and it is possible to make short term trades based on these channels. Of course channels will be eventually broken and, as a rule of thumb, 3 uniform touches at the bottom or top levels of a channel identify the channel.

As with my previous post in this series, these are psychological levels but do need to be respected. We should be alert for channel breakouts. Apart from the obvious news releases, there are known turning points throughout the calendar day.

1. In the hour before London Open - this is the crazy hour and you are likely to see false breakouts with a return to the channel.
2. In the hour after London Open - Breakouts in this period should be respected.
3. In the hours after New York Open - Breakouts in this period should be respected.
4. During the Asian Trading Session - frequently a slow descending channel or a slow rising channel or a flat channel - Respect any breakout.

Where there is a clearly identifiable channel, consider a straddle trade with a reasonable buffer (around 15 pips) after the third touch of a support or resistance point.

Be aware of Item 1 above because of the false breakouts in this period.

A HITCH HIKERS GUIDE TO PROFITABLE TRADING - ninth instalment
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Trading Times and Trading Days - I mentioned in the Post above the crazy hour before the London Open. It seems like the big traders are testing the market and some large moves and counter moves are made but this period is virtually impossible to trade except for scalping trades so I will summarize the trading day. It now very common to calculate pivots on the basis of a trading day ending at Dow Close which is 2100 GMT.

Trading Times

1. 2100 - 0000 No markets are active at this stage except for NZ after 2200 but little guidance is given - only scalpers should look at this period
2. 0000 - 0200 AU Market in play - AU news releases generally around 0030 to 0130 affecting AUD only.
3. 0200 - 0700 JPY and CHN markets also in play. JPY rarely affect markets at large but CHN releases can affect all markets.
4. 0700- 0800 The crazy hour before Euro markets open - Stay away!
5. 0800 - 1330 EUR Markets active - News releases usually in first hour - direction is quite pronounced in this period
6. 1230 - 1330 The hour before NY opens - some US new releases around 1230 - market direction can change in this period
7. 1330 - 1900 Market direction can oscillate in this period if no news releases but can be quite defined with news releases
8. 1900 - 2100 Markets start quietening down - small trading range

The best trading opportunities for defined market movement are 0800 -1200 after the EUR market has opened. During the NY times, market can be defined by significant economic news.

Trading Days

1. Mondays - best to avoid, direction seldom well defined because of of lack of economic news
2. Tuesdays - Thursdays - best trading days
3. Fridays - can be very volatile due primarily to US news releases.

In summary 0800-1200 Tuesdays to Thursdays give best opportunities for defined market movement.

Thanks David

Sure helps to clarify my experience.

Hi Dave,
How happy am I with your trading system. But I was asking myself using your trading system to program a " Straddle trade". Would you please of a help in this occasion
best, Ziad

Hello Ziad - I intend to cover the straddle trade at the end of my series - Hitch Hikers Guide to Profitable Trading within the next couple of days with a full discussion on this subject because it is one of the most under utilized trading facilities yet can be a very diligent way of trading.

Also I have replied to your email but my reply bounced back with the message that you were over your quota and I have resent the message.

A HITCH HIKERS GUIDE TO PROFITABLE TRADING - tenth instalment
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Market Hours and the Significance Trading during market hours where there is little or no movement can be a real test on your own discipline if you are trading manually because there is always the temptation to increase the size of your wager to achieve a meaningful result.

The active market hours are during the London and New York share trading sessions. Each session normally has economic news announcements at the beginning of the session (within the first 1.5 hours). I personally plan my trading week based on the news announcements by ranking the announcements and planning straddle trades 15 to 30 minutes after each news announcement using 30 mins on the more historically volatile announcements.

With the US Non Farm Payroll, the straddle trade is particularly successful because of the ability for the market to reverse even with news which should swing the market in a particular direction but does the opposite because of prior positioning of the large trades.

Homework is the essence, and I print out all the charts for each announcement in the last 12 months and research the commentaries related to each announcement. Look at the results v predictions and look the the resultant movements. This all ties in with the overall strategy of trading active markets where a trend is established - Tues - Thurs during London and New York markets. The latter is a little more tricky and that is why the trailing stop is crucial. Do not leave positions open over Weekends unless you are a long term trader (because of News events over the weekend).

In the absence of news announcements, trade support and resistance levels which I have covered in my previous discussions, also watching the RSI for overbought and oversold positions. This is quite important for scalpers even on the 1 minute chart.

Tomorrow I will wrap up this series with a trading blueprint with emphasis of trading away from the standard market orders.

Hi Dave
thank you for your reply to my question re the TDI. I understand that I must put it in the custom area but could you give me any clue as how i would go about setting it up.
also you mentioned about the companion. is this necessary to be able to backtest and optimise correctly. I wonder without it is it possible to have an accurate backtest.
thank you for all your helpful threads
Geoff

You have asked a number of questions!

Relating to TDI, it will help if you read through the thread. Buffer values are being evaluated and this is detailed in my videos.

Custom Indicators are for people who understand what they are doing and best left alone otherwise. Please PM me with your requirements. If you give your exact specifications then I will provide a set file, You cannot backtest a custom indicator with the companion because the logic is intrinsic to mql.

Dave

I understand your frustrations most traders don't or maybe can't realize that the money they make here must be justified by the work they put in in understanding the rationale for the market movement which having or using EA cannot replace. They EA must keep changing and add to our ever improving skills. An EA alone cannot make a successful trader....after all it's just an advisor.

Hello Don

I am putting in a fair amount of thought into the summation of this series. Most people regard Forex trading as a bit of a hobby but this is a profession for me with the resultant amount of work required, just as with any other job.

Prior preparation prevents poor performance.

Hello Dave,
I've been taking a look at your thread from time to time and was convinced to give it a try before, and version 2 seem to be great and much more easier to use.
I've downloaded and played around with your nice progie, strategy builder and optimizer part of it and i have to admit i like it. I may try full version soon.
And now, question bomb.
Do you think if we find multiple "strategies" that seem to be profitable using optimizer for multiple pairs and letting them run live we may end in good profit ?
I was thinking of finding 5 buy and sell settings with profitability 3 or higher for 10 pairs and letting it all run.
Have you tried it live? What are results compared to those you got in backtests ?


Also, I was thinking about some kind of "strategy brainstormer" where the program picks one or two random indicators and random comparison and tries to find profitable strategies using optimizer kind of method with switching parameters and values. Process would take some time but I have belief it would allow us to find some nice strategies easily.

Sorry for flood

i think just there is anorher product who does the same thing it isa linked to a broker
if i remember it is called quants or something like that.. but. yf you want to try with
agiliti panel the same.. it is not bad idea. for long backtesting it is to remain connected for some days

A HITCH HIKERS GUIDE TO PROFITABLE TRADING - Final Instalment
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Discipline:

I have been thinking about the wrap up for the Hitch Hikers Series and both of the above posts can be covered.

There is no Holy Grail. There is no Expert Adviser which will work perpetually. StrategyQuant to which the above poster alluded, optionally generates a random series of scenarios which you can back test, optimize, forward test in an attempt to obtain a convincing set of results. Any prior set of results can be optimized to produce compelling results.

Here is the thing - The market is constantly changing because the news is changing and our attitudes constantly change. What did work in the past will most probably not work in the future.

You have to work hard and most importantly take the emotion out of your trading. That is why you should be considering an EA. Money management is the thing that will sink you. You need to have an arsenal of weapons including the factors that I have mentioned in the last 2 weeks of the Hitch Hikers series.

The Wrap Up

1. Avoid Mondays because of lack of Economic News
2. Trade News Events after the event
3. Be very respectful of Support and Resistance levels including Fibonacci and Pivots
4. Use Straddle trades, Limit trades and Stop trades.
5. You don't need to be in the market unnecessarily
6. Use back testing and optimization to refine your money management.
7. Never violate your money management rules (first mistake of amateurs)
8. Don't get tied up with technical analysis. It is about the fundamentals. (second mistake of amateurs)
9. Be very meticulous and do your homework before each trade.

In the coming week, I will cover the mechanics of the Straddle Trade and a more detailed explanation of User Indicators.

The Straddle trade in an under utilized method of trading and is most commonly associated with news releases where significant movement is expected but the direction is uncertain.

It consists of 2 orders placed at the same time, a buy stop and a sell stop to be triggered at some level beyond the current position. That buffer, say for example 15 pips allows sufficient margin to clearly identify the direction of the move. My advice with News Events is to wait until after the release when the pattern should start to stabilize, around 15 to 30 minutes. Don't try to guess the direction, use the straddle trade.

There are other situations where straddle trades can used

1. Approaching significant Fibonacci levels.
2. Approaching the the channel boundaries of support and resistance.
3. After the open of the London or New York sessions.

It's important to realize that this type of trade makes no assumptions on direction and when one of the stop trades are activated, the other stop trade is cancelled so the buffer needs to be sufficiently large to define the direction. Each currency has it's own "DNA" and that is why back testing and optimization is so important. 60 pips of movement in the GBPUSD is only equivalent to 30 pips of movement of NZDUSD for example.

I have enclosed a sample Straddle set file (rename to Straddle.set) This is based on a Straddle at the beginning of the London Trading Day - Tue to Thu.

You may also care to experiment with a continuous straddle where straddle orders are automatically placed when the current order is completed either by TP or SL. Just remove the conditions in the set file and add one dummy condition such as Close(1) = Close(1)

Enclosed is an update to the exe companion and the ex4 EA. There are a number of very minor changes.

Thanks For Sharing your experience with us Dave.

There are all kinds of nuggets and fundamental rules that you covered that have been very helpful in improving my technique.

Great Job. Thanks