Fundamentals + sentiment + order levels rationale

Newsflow from G20:

1. Kuroda to expand QE http://www.reuters.com/article/g20-c...Name=bondsNews
USD JPY to rise on Monday.

2. GBP USD to continue falling.
Data out of Britain on Friday seemed to bear out fears. A business activity index posted its biggest drop in its 20-year history, a sign that Britain's economy appears to be shrinking at the fastest rate since the financial crisis in the wake of last month's Brexit vote.
On Friday, Hammond said the UK could reset fiscal policy if necessary, his strongest comments to date on how policy may change after Britain's historic decision to leave the European Union.

If nothing new happens reversing the above, I will look to enter from S/R lines in direction of the above sentiment.

1. Long USDJPY from 106 or if broken from 105.69
2. Short cable from 1.3115 - 1.3135

Transferring my account from Vipro to Darwinex on Monday, so no trading.

Why vipro to darwinex mate?

Because I want to build some nice track record and manage Other People's Money.

Case for lower oil mid-term:
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/07/25/cru...-fracklog-duc/

Still waiting for money from Vipro, so no trade today.

Nice summary Tuesday 26.07.16

http://www.marctomarket.com/2016/07/...c+to+Market%29

Although CPI for AU was as expected, fat cats only waited for getting a better price to sell AUD. Probability of a rate cut increased. I will look to short after it breaks this hourly S/R.

USD JPY is just one big confusion on Abe's declaration of stimulus. Everybody waits for BOJ meeting.

EUR USD is waiting for FOMC tone, zzzz 24 range pips for today.

USD CAD in play today because of Crude inventories. Still a lot to go today. Probably will exit before FOMC.
Based on some rumours: https://www.tixfx.com/at-grades-of-w...ines-observed/

Long 1.3182

GBP USD playing range long

I agree with this guy, good overview.

http://www.marctomarket.com/2016/07/...lus-while.html

Best money are done on surprises like Crude inventory surprise today. Instead of draw down we have build.

Limit long USD CAD

Again many mistakes done today, because of psychology... cable entry was good, but my mistakes were:

Exiting cable prematurely (fear) and then chasing the move and exiting again with a loss (greed + fear).

"A great trader is like a great athlete. You have to have natural skills, but you have to train yourself how to use them." Marty Schwartz

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I am flat before FOMC. Will try to find the good entry 30 minutes after the dust settles.

Market reaction to not-so-dovish FOMC = selling dollar, buying GBP and AUD? Ridiculous, but market is always right and I am down 20%. First levels did not hold, second levels maybe will hold.

It just shows, that market expected more hawkish Fed.

With yesterday's FOMC I was focused on:

and was buying dollar

Market was focused on:

and was selling dollar.

I think I was tired and not performed at my best. It was 8 pm after whole day. I need to rest before such event.



Now I have to come back from this drawdown.

Good catch today in cable. This is what this strategy is all about. Looks like selling of USD stopped.

I saw repeated reactions to R and shorted to the next S/R

No indicators will predict this:



Because this just happened on news wires:

Today USD CAD long (oil falling because of end product glut, bad data from CA expected, good data from US expected),
USD JPY long (overextended pair to the downside),
GBP USD short (stream of bad sentiment data from UK)

And everything was wrong. Fortunately I catched some pips of EURUSD long and USD JPY short after bad GDP from US.

Week 22-29.07.2016
Overall this week was very rich in learning opportunities and very poor in profits.

What I have to change:
1. Forget about fundamentals when trading intraday. GBP USD, AUD, NZD were going higher against fundamentals of rate cut plans. Only trade sentiment and fresh story, which is a surprise. Not be biased, that this pair cannot go up, because rate cut plans.
2. Avoid like a plague at market orders, only when there is non-planned surprise news. Use limit orders. When trading planned news, only stop orders around logical levels which are to be broken.
3. S/R level around which price is going up and down becomes equilibrium level and should be deleted - it is not actionable anymore.

Like here:


4. Don't tinker with running trades, unless some news/story changes the sentiment. Leave it to go to SL or TP.
5. Set TP as nearest S/R level and not further. What happened on USDJPY today: I would catch 44 pips to closest S/R and instead got BE, because TP was behind the level.