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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,101
  • Jul 24, 2016 1:02pm Jul 24, 2016 1:02pm
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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #55,102
  • Jul 24, 2016 9:48pm Jul 24, 2016 9:48pm
Quoting phil13
{image}
good one Phil
  • #55,103
  • Jul 24, 2016 10:27pm Jul 24, 2016 10:27pm
Quoting phil13
{image}
Good stuff Phil.
Thanks for sharing.

heres my to trade, saw it today too.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 773 KB

We all run our own races. Let us not get distracted and focus on Self.

1) Market Structure
2) Self
3) Capitalisation


Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,104
  • Jul 24, 2016 10:32pm Jul 24, 2016 10:32pm
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hi FTI & ALL, Re-reading the thread, found this stumbling block of a pattern variation, I know and understand assassin is reference to broadening, but what does gates and fish bone reference to? Alex have asked it here, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post7627713 In which Jacq replied http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post7628238 However, have this been discussed? the pattern itself? I understand that price reading, HH HL, LH LL is the backbone of all reads and of the most importance....

Anyone up for this?


Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,105
  • Jul 24, 2016 10:53pm Jul 24, 2016 10:53pm
Quoting lovelymonday
hi fti, thanks for replying my pm yesterday. something good really happen last night. lol. i found that some ppl already make progress in begining thread (about page 30s, so thats why i decided to reread). well, currently im at page 36, i used to thought that i need to read till page 600++ before i ask but the more i read, the more confuse i get. T.T what im understand 1. dont trade if im not know about the market 2. focus on pattern, not to indicator 3. when its come to fundamental, dont be rigid. 4. about mm, its like WB, dont lose money coz it...
Hi LovelyMonday,

What a nice nickname. I find Mondays to be the best day of the week and most lovely myself.

A) If you wish, a good book to read for the economic structure is paper money, there is a copy of it in the thread.

B) IMHO, the thing about patterns and indicators;
Picture this. Lets say, you wish to go to the beach for sun bathing. When you look out the window, it is all dark and gloomy. Thunder clouds everywhere with flashes of lightning AND a slight drizzle over the horizon. BUT the meteorologist service says its bright and sunny. And, you live just beside the beach.
What do you do?
About the patterns, just like the clouds and related, ie, wind, time of day, etc. Its an on-going process of reading and analyzing. Furthermore, in this case, you dont really need an indicator to tell you its going to rain when its going to rain. Its all there.

One thing that I helped me greatly when reading the thread would be to write down everything on paper and expand everything I question, then look for it here, or Google. It really help me understand more. But as I read on and on, it dawn upon me that everything loops back to the thread and have already been mention somewhere at some time.

Hope that helps.

Regards
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,106
  • Jul 25, 2016 11:00am Jul 25, 2016 11:00am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hi LovelyMonday, What a nice nickname. I find Mondays to be the best day of the week and most lovely myself.

A) If you wish, a good book to read for the economic structure is paper money, there is a copy of it in the thread.

B) IMHO, the thing about patterns and indicators; Picture this. Lets say, you wish to go to the beach for sun bathing. When you look out the window, it is all dark and gloomy. Thunder clouds everywhere with flashes of lightning AND a slight drizzle over the horizon. BUT the meteorologist service says its bright and...
hi, thank you ray

yeah, i still in progress reading this thread. somehow i feel to early to ask. lol.

i already read that book, paper money, reading that book realized me how little knowledge i have. T.T. im not really understand about market structure, coz when i read that book, wiki page about bretton woods and forex guide by fed, i thought that almost the same like fundamental, but it take longer time to change the market. somehow fti said that theres fundamental that affect market in short tenure and theres affect longer. so i guess the longer fundamental will change the market slow but sure
  • #55,107
  • Jul 25, 2016 5:20pm Jul 25, 2016 5:20pm
Mkt is so quiet...just happy I can send indics out to keep me busy. Not quite sure what the plan is on your wine products, can you re-phrase?



Quoting fti
ok now on to serious matters. i am thinking create a derivative product for trading. need create paper for purchase large plot land. need create paper for build large wine fermentation facility. need create paper for trading the wine being srtored. need make the paper volitility, so that after 18 years , the paper becomes paper and wine becomes mine. may the think tank begin to help. All ideas will be considered. The more ewil , i can impliment in it, the more sucessful it would be, i think. How to make sure no one gets killed and be the wiser for...
  • #55,108
  • Jul 25, 2016 7:16pm Jul 25, 2016 7:16pm
Quoting lovelymonday
{quote} hi, thank you ray yeah, i still in progress reading this thread. somehow i feel to early to ask. lol. i already read that book, paper money, reading that book realized me how little knowledge i have. T.T. im not really understand about market structure, coz when i read that book, wiki page about bretton woods and forex guide by fed, i thought that almost the same like fundamental, but it take longer time to change the market. somehow fti said that theres fundamental that affect market in short tenure and theres affect longer. so i guess...
Hi Lovely Monday,
No worries at all, yea, I am re-reading it too. Always finding nugget here and there. It took me a very long time before I was ready to ask, and I always felt I sounded silly asking them lol.
I remember FTI saying, fundamental data, news etc, takes about a quarter or so to filter through(depending on which and what), while very high impact news like NFP, FOMC or Central bank releases/hints etc gets a quicker reaction due to the nature of it. And then theres the expectation vs fact one, where market expects one, but gets another. This one can get violent and messy quickly too in my experience.
We have potential one very big red flag coming up in the shape of BOJ potential easing. Currently market is expecting additional easing and quite a huge one. Should BOJ disappoint, we can see a violent move down to 100. As of now, I believe big boys is doing profit taking and covering.
I believe, with respect to news, it is like what FTI said a few pages back, all depend on how well big boys are position. If they been well position, then we get lesser volatility, with regards to a badly position one, it be more violent. For example, like Swiss black swamp thursday where they unpeg themself against the euro vs recent GBP referendum.

Hope that helps, I stand corrected if otherwise.

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,109
  • Jul 26, 2016 12:13am Jul 26, 2016 12:13am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hi Lovely Monday, No worries at all, yea, I am re-reading it too. Always finding nugget here and there. It took me a very long time before I was ready to ask, and I always felt I sounded silly asking them lol.

I remember FTI saying, fundamental data, news etc, takes about a quarter or so to filter through(depending on which and what), while very high impact news like NFP, FOMC or Central bank releases/hints etc gets a quicker reaction due to the nature of it.

And then theres the expectation vs fact one, where market expects one, but gets...
hi ray, thank you. i write in a paper now, its for the first time i take a note again after quit school lol. i continued to read n found my answer about market structure in post #749. i feel my question so silly after i reread it, rotfl

ah, so need to filter which news n fundamental data have high impact quick reaction n which one not. btw how do u know big boys position?

im at post 800s now, still long way to go
regards
  • #55,110
  • Jul 26, 2016 7:28am Jul 26, 2016 7:28am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hi Lovely Monday, No worries at all, yea, I am re-reading it too. Always finding nugget here and there. It took me a very long time before I was ready to ask, and I always felt I sounded silly asking them lol. I remember FTI saying, fundamental data, news etc, takes about a quarter or so to filter through(depending on which and what), while very high impact news like NFP, FOMC or Central bank releases/hints etc gets a quicker reaction due to the nature of it. And then theres the expectation vs fact one, where market expects one, but gets...
Sorry for being off topic, I just wonder WHY markets react so swiftly on the important news (basically in the very next second after release). Everywhere I see these are important news and it sets further financial relations between economic agents, but nothing more. Are these purely speculative moves or there is something more behind that?
  • #55,111
  • Jul 26, 2016 8:01am Jul 26, 2016 8:01am
Quoting lovelymonday
{quote} hi ray, thank you. i write in a paper now, its for the first time i take a note again after quit school lol. i continued to read n found my answer about market structure in post #749. i feel my question so silly after i reread it, rotfl ah, so need to filter which news n fundamental data have high impact quick reaction n which one not. btw how do u know big boys position? im at post 800s now, still long way to go regards
Hi LovelyMonday,

No worries. Remember to read it slowly and understand it properly. Dont read it too quickly like what I did previously. There is no rush, the slower the better. Like a good whiskey or wine.
No need to feel that way. We all did that, haha.
From what I experience and infer from my reading, its best to square position before risk event or tighten it. It is very bad to carry position into event.

I dont know.. its opinionated(mine) and not factual. Which is a bad habit. So dont go on guessing like me....

FTI mention, trader job = manage self and capital. Economist find reason and predict, we dont. We manage ourself and protect our book.

Hope that helps.

Rgds

AOW
5. Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never
been seen associated with long delays.

1. Sun Tzu said: Whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the
enemy, will be fresh for the fight; whoever is second in the field and has
to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,112
  • Edited 7:53pm Jul 26, 2016 8:04am | Edited 7:53pm
Quoting leebsurag
{quote} Sorry for being off topic, I just wonder WHY markets react so swiftly on the important news (basically in the very next second after release). Everywhere I see these are important news and it sets further financial relations between economic agents, but nothing more. Are these purely speculative moves or there is something more behind that?
I asked the same question here once too.
The reply I got was, why do I need to know why? Our job as trader is just to follow market and dance with her. And not to ask why she move. She move I move, she stop I stop.

But generally, I infer, if there is a huge movement, market is position differently OR beat expectation OR fail expectation OR many other reason. Doesnt matter.

I am sorry, I got no answer.
Perhaps others could assist.

Rgds

AOW
27. All men can see the tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is
the strategy out of which victory is evolved.

28. Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your
methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances.

29. Military tactics are like unto water; for water in its natural course runs
away from high places and hastens downwards.

32. Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are
no constant conditions.

33. He who can modify his tactics in relation to his opponent and thereby
succeed in winning, may be called a heaven-born captain.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,113
  • Edited Jul 27, 2016 3:01am Jul 26, 2016 8:31pm | Edited Jul 27, 2016 3:01am
Gentlemans, Abe about to announce the package. Rumour 27TRL + 50Y BOND. Waiting for the fact for explosion! Already exploded on it rumours, looking pumped now, careful!

T-30MINS


Rgds

Rumours of 50yr bond false! claims MOF
UJ SOLD!


Ok, I be away, just thought I post that.... since we were on "buy the rumour sell the fact" analogy earlier

update: meeting appear to be postpone! lots of noise
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,114
  • Jul 27, 2016 9:39am Jul 27, 2016 9:39am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} I asked the same question here once too. The reply I got was, why do I need to know why? Our job as trader is just to follow market and dance with her. And not to ask why she move. She move I move, she stop I stop. But generally, I infer, if there is a huge movement, market is position
Well the better you understand the markets the more chances you have to be ahead of crowd. And this simply question shed light to very intriguing points of market sentiments, psychology and help to develop better strategy to post-news trading.
Anyway thanks, I will keep digging in this direction
  • #55,115
  • Edited 6:50am Jul 28, 2016 6:31am | Edited 6:50am
Everyone wants to know.
who is God?

wisdom
an ant finds some sugar.
eats i piece.
then thinks, tomorrow.
i will carry this whole hill of sugar, into my little hole.
there is no fool, like an intelligent fool?


all the ants wants to know.
What is a human.
When they meet a human they thinking, what the fish is that?

Every one wants to be a successful trader.
When they meet a successful trader.
What the fish is that. He only knows how to make pips?
No trills? no special spaceship?
ok show your secret.

regards

eeeer secret?


yes whats in your right hand?


eeeer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6389068-Durian--Stock-Photo-durian-fruit-durians.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #55,116
  • Jul 28, 2016 6:58am Jul 28, 2016 6:58am
thanks fti, we get the drift...
  • #55,117
  • Jul 28, 2016 8:30am Jul 28, 2016 8:30am
Quoting fti
Everyone wants to know. who is God? wisdom an ant finds some sugar. eats i piece. then thinks, tomorrow. i will carry this whole hill of sugar, into my little hole. there is no fool, like an intelligent fool? all the ants wants to know. What is a human. When they meet a human they thinking, what the fish is that? Every one wants to be a successful trader. When they meet a successful trader. What the fish is that. He only knows how to make pips? No trills? no special spaceship? ok show your secret. regards eeeer secret? yes whats in your...
Noted - thanks.

But why the humble Durian?


I think you might fancy this.
http://momentum.travel/style-culture...+Amplification

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,118
  • Jul 28, 2016 8:38am Jul 28, 2016 8:38am
Quoting fti
ok, chart reading patterns. reversal patterns. ----------------- double tops , and bottoms. triple tops and triple bottoms. head and shoulder neck breaks, inverted head and shoulder neck breaks. congestion patterns ------------------- triangles. flags. assasins. gates. fish bones. congestion patterns should be treated as continuation patterns unless superceded by new dorminant pattern. retracements takes forms abc waves. trends takes form 5 waves to 7 waves. Advance patterns reading, compounded patterns, interlocking patterns. You can find explanations...
*Repost
(change the quote as this way it be easier to refer rather then clicking the quote twice)

Any one care to indulge me, or share the same puzzle?

Re-reading the thread,
found this stumbling block of a pattern variation, I know and understand assassin is reference to broadening, but what does gates and fish bone reference to? And, interlocking pattern.


Alex have asked it here,
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post7627713

In which Jacq replied
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post7628238

However, have this been discussed? the pattern itself?
I understand that price reading, HH HL, LH LL is the backbone of all reads and of the most importance. I just wish to fill in the blank for that variation.

Is anyone up for a discussion with it?
As with congestion variations, I am guessing fish bone suggest a narrowing channel.. Gates a parallel channel? And interlocking is pattern mutation?


Or... I dig around some of the technical books mentioned in thread.


Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,119
  • Jul 28, 2016 8:48am Jul 28, 2016 8:48am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} *Repost (change the quote as this way it be easier to refer rather then clicking the quote twice) Any one care to indulge me, or share the same puzzle? Re-reading the thread, found this stumbling block of a pattern variation, I know and understand assassin is reference to broadening, but what does gates and fish bone reference to? And, interlocking pattern. Alex have asked it here, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post7627713 In which Jacq replied http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post7628238...

you ask what is gates and fish bone referring to? sorry, i not know. when you go on battlefield, is no real importance to know whether the enemy is called jack or john. u just observe his weak point and take him down in one slash.

cheers
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #55,120
  • Edited 9:22am Jul 28, 2016 9:10am | Edited 9:22am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} you ask what is gates and fish bone referring to? sorry, i not know. when you go on battlefield, is no real importance to know whether the enemy is called jack or john. u just observe his weak point and take him down in one slash. cheers
I get where you are coming from. I do. And to be frank, you repeated what i have said and to be entirely honest, was of no help at all. your reply was exactly what i have said so myself. In which, I totally agree.

Perhaps you would like to take another read at it.
Do note, I am not looking for a reference, just a face to the name if you will, I like to know what my enemies are, and features they have. They might not always look the same, but its not too difficult telling the difference of a gun from a stick.

Someone once mention in the thread, a trained technical analyst probably subconsciously remembers thousands if not millions of pattern variation. I am not looking for a singular c/p pattern. I am looking for a reference or a feature, a face?


This reminds me of a story that happen quite a few years ago. How you reacted is exactly how I did when my pilot friend told me he is trained to read clouds. I told him, why do you need to do that? isnt it just sunny, gloomy, stormy, clearing? He said no, obviously not. There are names to cloud, and it is mandatory every pilot goes through this lesson and not fly into those "dangerous" ones. One of which, that I remember till now is the CB cloud or Cumulonimbus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulonimbus_cloud) . because of the way it sounds. (joke between him and me)
The idea is not to know all the clouds in the sky, but know and understand the feature of what can hurt you.
Now, he is flying high, got his wings, have not met him in awhile. Nice guy, very patient and grounded.


Rgds

Further more, this was posted in thread and hence, I believe discussion is still encourage here. I was just surprise that at that point that it was posted, it got entirely side swapped.

As a matter of fact, someone reply almost exactly like yourself too.
What is the importance of that?
Here was FTI reply.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...80#post6223880

"... if you monitoring prices, these the things you see.
there's the relevence.
mm without analysis , so what mm going to do?
still need get feel on what happening.

you can try get feel , or you can guess, or you can toss coin or throw darts.
managing give you best practices for survival, and thats that.

everyone's trying apply all sorts filters get that feel.
be they lines, crossings, clouds, bands ...........
I just read prices and watch their body language patternsvia charts.
.......
"
I guess the word I was looking for, is the body language of "gates.. fish bones.. interlocking(?).."

What I am saying is, very possibly, its out there, in the charts, just like up in the sky, we see it, but we dont know her face.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
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