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Trap the Market

  • #101
  • Jul 21, 2016 7:15am Jul 21, 2016 7:15am
Quoting KeenPips
After doing my pre-weekly scan and analysis, I am choosing three pairs from the ten pairs on my watch list for trading opportunity this week. The three pairs I may likely trade are: EURJPY, GBPCAD and GBPNZD....
The technicals on GBPNZD are mixed at the moment. Therefore, I will not trade it until there is alignment and the GBP's fundamentals have improved.

Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #102
  • Jul 21, 2016 7:54am Jul 21, 2016 7:54am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Price has just broken down the trendline I drew on on Sunday on the daily EURJPY chart. That has already offered over 110 pips southwards and has the potential to double that figure. Trade safe.
Although the 'panic' news on Japan, which has now turned out to be an old interview granted the BBC by Kuroda in June, spiked the price upwards on EURJPY, the 62 and 50 Fib levels seem to be 'restraining' further move upwards for a potentially further move southward. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #103
  • Jul 24, 2016 11:07am Jul 24, 2016 11:07am
I have just completed my weekly scanning of the 10 pairs on my watch list. After the first of six steps, I found five pairs potentially favourably tradable for my style as a short-term swing trader: AUDJPY, EURNZD, EURUSD, GBPJPY and GBPUSD. However after the third step, involving further analysis, it was apparent that EURUSD should be dropped from the list. At the end of the scanning and analysis, AUDJPY, EURNZD, GBPJPY and GBPUSD technically met the conditions I set. Why did I drop EURUSD from the final selection for this week?. Here is my perspective on the pair.

EURUSD: Although there is potential for a bearish move further down, the quality of the candles and the price structure do not offer a compelling condition to trade in that direction. Overall price action favoured a downward disposition but the momentum was not strong. There is need to wait for clarity and for further price action. This is more so considering that the market has been ranging for weeks and in the same zone. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #104
  • Jul 24, 2016 4:23pm Jul 24, 2016 4:23pm
After my pre-week analysis, I will be waiting for the right time to trade GBPUSD, one of the four pairs I selected to trade this week. Here is my perspective on the pair.

GBPUSD: The market is in a consolidation mode. The market structure indicated that price has not yet retested the Brexit level created on June 24 and that price action is still in a weekly S/R zone. Overall, the order flow was that of a market in consolidation, looking for effective direction. Much likely good GBP fundamentals will help the pair re-test the Brexit level and the monthly pivot, which is still far above current price level. As there may be an upward move to test the Brexit level and the monthly pivot, I will wait until price action shows clarity of direction.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #105
  • Jul 25, 2016 4:17am Jul 25, 2016 4:17am
The AUDJPY pair is my priority trading pair for this week and this is my perspective on it.

AUDJPY: The market structure indicated that price was re-testing the long bearish move created by fundamental news re-Brexit on June 24, 2016 and the price action was at a weekly resistance zone. Much likely the price will reject the zone to the downside.

I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #106
  • Jul 25, 2016 11:15am Jul 25, 2016 11:15am
Quoting KeenPips
The AUDJPY pair is my priority trading pair for this week and this is my perspective on it. AUDJPY: The market structure indicated that price was re-testing the long bearish move created by fundamental news re-Brexit on June 24, 2016 and the price action was at a weekly resistance zone. Much likely the price will reject the zone to the downside. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Price has indicated a rejection of the zone I was targeting and I now have a southward trade on this pair.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY_4HSetUp_July_25,_2016.png Size: 27 KB
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #107
  • Jul 25, 2016 11:35am Jul 25, 2016 11:35am
Although EURNZD is the second pair on my selected pairs for trading this week, I'm not trading it yet. Here's why, giving my perspective on the pair.

EURNZD: The market structure indicated that the price action was re-testing the level from which the Brexit-price move downwards started/rejected on June 24, 2016, it was at a weekly resistance zone and the monthly pivot. The RSI pointed downwards from 50 and the ADX was bearing up but still under 25 an indication that a bear pressure was still in play and gained momentum. Overall, the order flow context favoured a rejection of the zone to the downside. I will wait for price to re-test the Brexit zone and reject the weekly resistance zone and then look for a bearish-trade opportunity. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #108
  • Jul 25, 2016 3:14pm Jul 25, 2016 3:14pm
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Price has indicated a rejection of the zone I was targeting and I now have a southward trade on this pair. {image}
Market ranging, out with a marginal profit. Will stay on the side line for momentum to pick up. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #109
  • Jul 27, 2016 12:23pm Jul 27, 2016 12:23pm
Quoting KeenPips
Although EURNZD is the second pair on my selected pairs for trading this week, I'm not trading it yet. Here's why, giving my perspective on the pair. EURNZD: The market structure indicated that the price action was re-testing the level from which the Brexit-price move downwards started/rejected on June 24, 2016, it was at a weekly resistance zone and the monthly pivot. The RSI pointed downwards from 50 and the ADX was bearing up but still under 25 an indication that a bear pressure was still in play and gained momentum. Overall, the order flow context...
Price has now rejected a confluence of weekly pivot and 200 SMA on the EURNZD 4 Hr chart to southward. A further bearish move below the daily pivot is likely to give impetus to further move to the downside. The ADX on the 4HR is strongly supportive of the momentum southward. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #110
  • Jul 29, 2016 5:02am Jul 29, 2016 5:02am
The big players own the market; they drive market moves. They trade levels or predetermined zones. To be successful, good retail traders should follow in their wake, as closely as possible. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #111
  • Jul 31, 2016 5:37am Jul 31, 2016 5:37am
I have just completed my pre-week scanning and analysis of the pairs on my watch list. As a swing trader, I will not be looking to trade EURUSD at least in the early part of this week, rather I will look for an opportunity to trade EURJPY or GBPJPY southward. Here is why I will step aside from trading EURUSD; representing my perspective on the pair.

EURUSD: Price in consolidation/sideways mode on weekly, choppy on daily and volatile on 4-Hrly time frames. In summary, the market structure or order flow context is not favourable to my swing trading strategy/style. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #112
  • Jul 31, 2016 6:14am Jul 31, 2016 6:14am
Here is my take on the GU after my pre-week analysis. The pin bar on the monthly tf portends a rejection of further southward move. GU is ranging and in a sideways mode (about 170 pips in range) after having moved below the Brexit support created on June 24. I expect a breakout to either side. Trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #113
  • Aug 3, 2016 1:24am Aug 3, 2016 1:24am
Quoting KeenPips
Here is my take on the GU after my pre-week analysis. The pin bar on the monthly tf portends a rejection of further southward move. GU is ranging and in a sideways mode (about 170 pips in range) after having moved below the Brexit support created on June 24. I expect a breakout to either side. Trade safe. KP
I am tracking this pair. It has moved above the range it created since July 18. It has breached the range to the upside and now doing a re-test. Any successful rejection of the zone to the upside, which is a few pips above the daily pivot, is likely to start the beginning of another move to the north. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #114
  • Aug 3, 2016 5:43am Aug 3, 2016 5:43am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} I am tracking this pair. It has moved above the range it created since July 18. It has breached the range to the upside and now doing a re-test. Any successful rejection of the zone to the upside, which is a few pips above the daily pivot, is likely to start the beginning of another move to the north. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Zone rejected to the upside. I have now set up a 'buy stop order'. I may be wrong. Trade safe.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_4H_Stop_Buy_Order_August_3,_2016.png Size: 24 KB
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  • #115
  • Aug 4, 2016 1:44am Aug 4, 2016 1:44am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Zone rejected to the upside. I have now set up a 'buy stop order'. I may be wrong. Trade safe. {image}
Price has remained rather ambivalent for over 19 hours; not healthy for swing trading. So, buy stop order cancelled. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #116
  • Edited 12:19pm Aug 4, 2016 8:55am | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Price has remained rather ambivalent for over 19 hours; not healthy for swing trading. So, buy stop order cancelled. Trade safe.
Good decision to stay out of an ambivalent market. GBPUSD plummeted! Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #117
  • Aug 4, 2016 3:20pm Aug 4, 2016 3:20pm
It may be interesting to note that the overall disposition of GBPUSD is still southwards, any northward move is temporary and merely corrective. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #118
  • Aug 5, 2016 10:25am Aug 5, 2016 10:25am
Tip: The strategic use of fundamentals in combo with top-down technical analysis is potent for long-term trading success. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #119
  • Aug 7, 2016 11:28am Aug 7, 2016 11:28am
I am yet to conclude my weekly scanning and analysis. Nevertheless, from the first two steps in my scanning process, I know I will be stepping aside on the EURUSD as I expect a sideways market situation on the pair. From the standpoint of technical analysis on the weekly time frame, the southward move is still in play but the momentum is weakening. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #120
  • Aug 7, 2016 12:16pm Aug 7, 2016 12:16pm
Quoting KeenPips
I am yet to conclude my weekly scanning and analysis. Nevertheless, from the first two steps in my scanning process, I know I will be stepping aside on the EURUSD as I expect a sideways market situation on the pair. From the standpoint of technical analysis on the weekly time frame, the southward move is still in play but the momentum is weakening. Trade safe.
I have now completed my weekly analysis and the two priority pairs I will be looking to trade - from the 9 pairs on my watch list - are GBPJPY and EURJPY. I have a trade ongoing on GBPJPY and so will not be opening another trade on it until it gets to another level I will be watching. Besides, I will be doing a mid-week update on the GBPUSD which currently does not offer profitable R:R southward (its current bias) and may require an upward push to be feasible for my swing trading style.

Regarding EURJPY, the downward momentum is strong on weekly but upward move is in play on daily perhaps a corrective one as the overall direction is to the downside. I will look for opportunities for a sell trade during the week, much likely after a retracement to the upside to a significant resistance zone. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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