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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #4,421
  • Jul 22, 2016 7:11am Jul 22, 2016 7:11am
Quoting AlexC
Wow, Simon, Neil, Tim, Daud and myself are here. We are the original expendables.

Haha - yea, the expendables.

Ditto on pound - we'll see..

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  • #4,422
  • Jul 22, 2016 8:19am Jul 22, 2016 8:19am
Quoting AlexC
Wow, Simon, Neil, Tim, Daud and myself are here. We are the original expendables.
Haha, still room for more.
  • #4,423
  • Jul 22, 2016 10:16am Jul 22, 2016 10:16am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Haha - yea, the expendables. Ditto on pound - we'll see.. {image}
So... full disclosure - and why not, it's only trading.

I've ended up being in a trade that my plan doesn't allow me to be in. Schoolboy error and something that I even posted about recently. This entire price region is actually a H4 Zone.

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For my plan then it's quite simple that I shouldn't really be looking at trading any signal below the H1. There's nothing my side at this current time that would indicate any H1 bulls in this market.

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As I say, it's a mistake I've made in the past, it's liable to happen again sometime, and it's something that I need to look at and factor into my routine going forward. For anyone long, I'm not saying I don't think we could see a push higher, this is just an error my side and I'm unable to expand the current stop due to the M15 position sizing.

Anyhows, wanted to show a mistake in action.
  • #4,424
  • Jul 22, 2016 10:39am Jul 22, 2016 10:39am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} So... full disclosure - and why not, it's only trading. I've ended up being in a trade that my plan doesn't allow me to be in. Schoolboy error and something that I even posted about recently. This entire price region is actually a H4 Zone. {image} For my plan then it's quite simple that I shouldn't really be looking at trading any signal below the H1. There's nothing my side at this current time that would indicate any H1 bulls in this market. {image} As I say, it's a mistake I've made in the past, it's liable to happen again sometime, and...
Not to worry, I made a ton of schoolboy errors this week.

The main issue against buying the GU H4 demand is being a Friday afternoon after a big dump in price can often become stationary.

So to get the RR on it would have meant a probably weekend hold also (price can gap up out of this level but it's a risky hold).

These kind of trades are very seductive though and I've done enough of these in my time!
  • #4,425
  • Jul 22, 2016 10:48am Jul 22, 2016 10:48am
Damn.... I wish I could do this every-time on every pair!

It's one of those trades where everything lined up, daily, H4 and even H1 PA. This could go further but it's the end of the road for me.
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  • #4,426
  • Jul 22, 2016 10:52am Jul 22, 2016 10:52am
Quoting C-12
Damn.... I wish I could do this every-time on every pair! It's one of those trades where everything lined up, daily, H4 and even H1 PA. This could go further but it's the end of the road for me. {image}
  • #4,427
  • Jul 22, 2016 10:54am Jul 22, 2016 10:54am
Here's another one I've just sat on... I'm going to try more of this and less flip flop on M5 (which usually ends up giving good pips away in the end).

It was initially an M15 zone scalp but daily was telling me to stick with it.
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  • #4,428
  • Jul 22, 2016 11:00am Jul 22, 2016 11:00am
And AU... Would be great to just be able to put positions on early in the week and close em out on a Friday,

It doesn't always work this way but maybe there is something in that idea.....
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  • #4,429
  • Jul 22, 2016 11:09am Jul 22, 2016 11:09am
EJ M5 .....

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  • #4,430
  • Jul 22, 2016 11:13am Jul 22, 2016 11:13am
Quoting mrhb30jr
EJ M5 ..... {image}
Nice trade, downtrend and pullback into zone. Good RR.

Not sure what it is about JPY pairs but can't seem to make work, although the PA looks really good this week.

Looks like we'll print a fresh H4 supply level here.
  • #4,431
  • Jul 22, 2016 11:27am Jul 22, 2016 11:27am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Nice trade, downtrend and pullback into zone. Good RR. Not sure what it is about JPY pairs but can't seem to make work, although the PA looks really good this week. Looks like we'll print a fresh H4 supply level here.
Hi C12,...

thxs C12, H4 candle 30 minutes before close .... i keep hold my short ...
nice supply look like in this area ..
  • #4,432
  • Jul 22, 2016 11:38am Jul 22, 2016 11:38am
Quoting mrhb30jr
{quote} Hi C12,... thxs C12, H4 candle 30 minutes before close .... i keep hold my short ... nice supply look like in this area ..

EJ H4 .....

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  • #4,433
  • Jul 22, 2016 11:48am Jul 22, 2016 11:48am
EU M5 .....

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  • #4,434
  • Edited 4:46pm Jul 22, 2016 4:20pm | Edited 4:46pm
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Yea, GU's interesting because of where that supply zone's formed. Obviously no predictions here, just outlining what I know may setup my side (with obviously no guarantees it'll work out even if does setup). These days I'm quite happy to sit and watch things unfold - if it takes a day or two, so be it. Like you say, the discipline is not just to keep out of bad stuff, it's also to pull the trigger on the good stuff. Funny thing, that discipline {image}
That was a good analysis and oddly did take a couple of days to unfold.

It's quite interesting how you can watch a level form but you never know the route it will take along the way.

Also we know GU loves a good stitch up....

It actually seems like the market spent 2-3 days solely to create this sting.. That old chestnut of supply just above a swing point to suck in all the breakout buyers.
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  • #4,435
  • Edited 4:15am Jul 23, 2016 4:00am | Edited 4:15am
Quoting C-12
Also we know GU loves a good stitch up....
It certainly does love a good stitch up, and the ambush often occurs around news

GJ performed pretty well this week, particularly if one prefers to trade PA at the levels.

The H4 reaction here looked pretty tepid, but on the other hand, the H1 was clear enough. Trick is to make sure to be looking in the right TFs as and when the action is setting up. This is something I often forget to to do, so routine is something I want to focus on going forward.

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  • #4,436
  • Jul 23, 2016 4:49am Jul 23, 2016 4:49am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} It certainly does love a good stitch up, and the ambush often occurs around news GJ performed pretty well this week, particularly if one prefers to trade PA at the levels. The H4 reaction here looked pretty tepid, but on the other hand, the H1 was clear enough. Trick is to make sure to be looking in the right TFs as and when the action is setting up. This is something I often forget to to do, so routine is something I want to focus on going forward. {image}
Yeah it looks nice PA on H1/M30. Solid engulfs across those time frames.

You could have actually nailed it even tighter on M15 but I'm leaning towards moving away from M15 since I think you can get more confusion and lose sight of the field of view.

I don't actually trade this pair (or any crosses atm) but it would probably be useful to to have GU and UJ in view when trading it.

If you saw this PA on GJ, it might not have made that much sense on it's own.
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  • #4,437
  • Jul 23, 2016 8:11am Jul 23, 2016 8:11am
Quoting C-12
If you saw this PA on GJ, it might not have made that much sense on it's own.
Yea exactly. If we added a bit of hand-drawn S/R in to the mix as well...


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  • #4,438
  • Jul 23, 2016 5:04pm Jul 23, 2016 5:04pm
I like where NZDUSD is at the moment for a base to build for longs... We have potential lowering of interest rates on kiwi in august. So if that is to happen ideal time to lower would be at higher prices, but for now prices have been lowering in expectation of this... I have a sell limit at around 0.74.. Currently we are sat on some support within a monthly bull engulf.. Will be interesting to see if we can get buyers here to move us up and also what may come out in the media to drive this ahead of the official cash rate... And if none of this happens then forget i ever said anything lol

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  • #4,439
  • Jul 25, 2016 1:42pm Jul 25, 2016 1:42pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
I like where NZDUSD is at the moment for a base to build for longs... We have potential lowering of interest rates on kiwi in august. So if that is to happen ideal time to lower would be at higher prices, but for now prices have been lowering in expectation of this... I have a sell limit at around 0.74.. Currently we are sat on some support within a monthly bull engulf.. Will be interesting to see if we can get buyers here to move us up and also what may come out in the media to drive this ahead of the official cash rate... And if none of this happens...
Well, it's a big timeframe but one to watch when we get up into the zone.
  • #4,440
  • Jul 25, 2016 1:45pm Jul 25, 2016 1:45pm
UJ was looking quite tasty on the daily so had to add it to the menu. Some good PA on M30 and a great little M5 pullback earlier.
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