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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #55,061
  • Jul 21, 2016 10:30am Jul 21, 2016 10:30am
Quoting fti
ok, .... flags. assasins. gates. fish bones. congestion patterns should be treated as continuation patterns unless superceded by new dorminant pattern. retracements takes forms abc waves. trends takes form 5 waves to 7 waves. Advance patterns reading, compounded patterns, interlocking patterns. You can find explanations of these in any good technical analysis books. Pattern recognision and stategic mm , read thread also hand held sessions. I know anyone who has read TA would know this. Really? is good know. Do you KNOW how use it? Advance...
Hi FTI & ALL,
Re-reading the thread,
found this stumbling block of a pattern variation, I know and understand assassin is reference to broadening, but what does gates and fish bone reference to?


Alex have asked it here,
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post7627713

In which Jacq replied
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post7628238

However, have this been discussed? the pattern itself?
I understand that price reading, HH HL, LH LL is the backbone of all reads and of the most importance. I just wish to fill in the blank for that variation.

Is anyone up for discussion with it?
As with congestion variations, I am guessing fish bone suggest a narrowing channel.. Gates a parallel channel?


Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #55,062
  • Jul 22, 2016 7:43am Jul 22, 2016 7:43am
Quoting Exnav
Dear Fti, thank you hugely for your welcome and the video/ sound hint. "la danse de la mer est trs bien droul ou ne danse pas du tout" - it seems easy to navigate the sea depicted and stay relaxed beyond it - ashore. So, it should be as well comfortably to attack and resque if a breeze is blowing. Then, once in rough seas... or ashore having some tzunami and eartquake... With my last real account it occured to me twice at the beginning of this year to accept significant losses 2% and 3% of deposit capital (no news trading, perhaps, those...

3 SD deviations does happens every now and again. Had seen lots of that.
Being nimble react to it mostly meant they are turned into fortune opportunities from dangerous waters as one aligns on wind. Also easier if one is high up on the feed chain.


Most underfunded trading would suffer these, due to the shock factor. Many responds like deer in headlights. BUT if one is experienced, then one regroup books and do the right things align for profitablity, while ego argues and debates.
What you described in terms of wide prices and hung platforms. This not that the services trying to get you. Its just that when markets are in illiquidity, there's just no prices. Everyone is shivering in their pans. Until they stop shivering everything is in hung animation. Mostly if the brokers gets a price in these circumstances,they probably need it bail themselves positions. Will not filter to the masses until markets cools off.

These the reasons why, professionals have many diversified sources of prices and market access.
Mostly direct. Indirect access to markets like broking, cannot be depended on when sheets are hitting fences mostly.
This the reasons why one should always trade the most liquid markets.
But people don't listen. Sometimes they have no choices.
But excuses does not make anything right. changes nothing.

regards
  • #55,063
  • Jul 22, 2016 7:57am Jul 22, 2016 7:57am
Quoting appleboy
hello fti, when i try to dance intra day on the 5m, mostly in the same direction as the daily trend, i find that i almost always have to carry on the campaign to days or weeks. my size is small relative to my pot but still trying to dance the waves to a profit within the same day is quite an impossibility ( to me at least ). can you please provide some guidance ? many thanks always grateful.
wah this request may cause the thread extend to way after my lifespan leh.


generally this can be caused by 2 factors.

1.markets volitility and liquidity.

2. YOU.

regards

"trying to dance the waves to a profit within the same day is quite an impossibility."
think carefully, HIS STATEMENT CANNOT BE TRUE.

hints later: while i enjoy some reprieve.hahahahahahahahastill have fever leh.
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  • #55,064
  • Jul 22, 2016 8:37am Jul 22, 2016 8:37am
Quoting fti
{quote} wah this request may cause the thread extend to way after my lifespan leh. generally this can be caused by 2 factors. 1.markets volitility and liquidity. 2. YOU. regards "trying to dance the waves to a profit within the same day is quite an impossibility." think carefully, HIS STATEMENT CANNOT BE TRUE. hints later: while i enjoy some reprieve.hahahahahahahahastill have fever leh. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1VKcz62U5w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bdkcql0ZEM
Hope usa ok -

I would also like to ask - when we are on wrong side of trend or trend has suddenly changed against us so we find ourselves on wrong side - should we close all down at once to limit losses ie so loss cannot keep building - or is it safe to leave it letting losses build (assuming we have the money for it) - for example after wave 5 it may pull back a little deeper and so we could try to recover even against trend - or is it always best to close down if on wrong trend and rescue book(not trade) by getting in in correct direction with trend only (unless it is looking way overdone)? I have sometimes let losses keep running and I do not like it at all - even tho I rescued the trades later I have wondered why I was so silly?

Thank you
Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,065
  • Edited 9:34am Jul 22, 2016 9:19am | Edited 9:34am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Hope usa ok - I would also like to ask - when we are on wrong side of trend or trend has suddenly changed against us so we find ourselves on wrong side - should we close all down at once to limit losses ie so loss cannot keep building - or is it safe to leave it letting losses build (assuming we have the money for it) - for example after wave 5 it may pull back a little deeper and so we could try to recover even against trend - or is it always best to close down if on wrong trend and rescue book(not trade) by getting in in correct...

i not think is silly at all.

Makes me think of a soldier, carried 300 rounds ammo into battle. Carried 250 rounds back.
may look a little silly.
But consider the wise/efficient soldier who carried 3 rounds into battle.
Didn't come back.

regards

If one took pain sustained position , is probably because the situation then did not allow exit, or one saw was a temporarily situation.
otherwise would not be sensible mount a rescue.
So the managing is still acceptable. nothing silly.
  • #55,066
  • Jul 22, 2016 9:26am Jul 22, 2016 9:26am
Quoting fti
{quote} i not think is silly at all. Makes me think of a soldier, carried 300 rounds ammo into battle. Carried 250 rounds back. may look a little silly. But consider the wise/efficient soldier who carried 3 rounds into battle. Didn't come back. regards
Not sure I understand this? My feeling is why do I let losses grow even bigger by leaving all men out there to bleed when I could close down to limit bleeding ie losses and rescue book when terrain is more friendly or rescue them in a flip? Bigger losses means more to rescue - strong trend could keep running for ages so more bleeding. When I am trying to rescue I can lose the will to flip even when I should.

check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,067
  • Jul 22, 2016 9:40am Jul 22, 2016 9:40am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Not sure I understand this? My feeling is why do I let losses grow even bigger by leaving all men out there to bleed when I could close down to limit bleeding ie losses and rescue book when terrain is more friendly or rescue them in a flip? Bigger losses means more to rescue - strong trend could keep running for ages so more bleeding. When I am trying to rescue I can lose the will to flip even when I should.
yes,but if you leave em out there just because you are very rich/powderful.
then they are out there for wrong reasons.

They should only be left out there bleeding, if you have plan bring em back.
Otherwise there isn't enough ammo take all em out.
There's a sucker born every second. Can't catch em all. No boat big enough. limited pokeballs.

regards
  • #55,068
  • Jul 22, 2016 9:42am Jul 22, 2016 9:42am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Not sure I understand this? My feeling is why do I let losses grow even bigger by leaving all men out there to bleed when I could close down to limit bleeding ie losses and rescue book when terrain is more friendly or rescue them in a flip? Bigger losses means more to rescue - strong trend could keep running for ages so more bleeding. When I am trying to rescue I can lose the will to flip even when I should.
that is why u need to learn to read terrain, TA and FA.

at daily turning points, u shd be nimble and be ready to turn into the chg in trend
in a strong daily trend, u shd not be rescuing against the trend. if rescuing in the trend, u shd be targeting to rescue at sweet spots in conjuction with reading the dance.

if you just cut ur losses at every instance without considering the terrain i.e. without a strategy then isnt it the same as giving up ur territory without thinking everytime ur enemy kills some of your soldiers stationed at the outpost?
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THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #55,069
  • Jul 22, 2016 9:45am Jul 22, 2016 9:45am
Quoting fti
{quote} yes,but if you leave em out there just because you are very rich/powderful. then they are out there for wrong reasons. They should only be left out there bleeding, if you have plan bring em back. Otherwise there isn't enough ammo take all em out. There's a sucker born every second. Can't catch em all. No boat big enough. limited pokeballs. regards
Thank you - will think about your wise words.

Hope you are doing ok.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,070
  • Edited Jul 23, 2016 4:41am Jul 22, 2016 10:00am | Edited Jul 23, 2016 4:41am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} that is why u need to learn to read terrain, TA and FA. at daily turning points, u shd be nimble and be ready to turn into the chg in trend in a strong daily trend, u shd not be rescuing against the trend. if rescuing in the trend, u shd be targeting to rescue at sweet spots in conjuction with reading the dance. if you just cut ur losses at every instance without considering the terrain i.e. without a strategy then isnt it the same as giving up ur territory everytime ur enemy kills some of your soldiers stationed at the outpost?
Thank you for your reply.

  1. If I am with trend - I rescue based on PA (eg abc PB )- if it pulls back very deep inside my last trend wave then I need good reason to get back in with trend (from FTI) market must show me
  2. if I am wrong and against trend then I need a strong plan and that should determine what I do (FTI) - lack of plan means rabbit in headlights or finger crossing - hope (abandon hope all ye)
  3. if cap is in threat pull plug

I use mostly h1/m15 for my direction with an eye to d1.
You are correct if I try to rescue against trend then sometimes the pull backs are very small - so I pay attention to higher time frame/big round number type points and if price is already overcooked so needs to pullback and then wait for PA to show me - against main trend is no fun unless as FTI says I have a plan (AOW) to implement. Also strength of move counts here and pullbacks- rescuing with trend is always easier either in flip or stay with trend

I think planning is key as well as skills in following price.


Alex

Thank you.

check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,071
  • Jul 22, 2016 6:17pm Jul 22, 2016 6:17pm
I read the first few pages of this thread and I'm not sure if fti's original method is still followed now.

I wonder how many people have blown their accounts trying this way of trading. I have never seen a worse trading method in my life! While it may be good for a bank that has unlimited capital, it is a disaster for retail traders especially the ones that are still new to this game. Using no SL, adding larger positions to a losing trade, this is martingale and it is a recipe for disaster unless you have the skills of fti, and you don't.

WARNING!!!

If you are new to trading, don't ever attempt this method of trading! You WILL blow your account asap. If you put a trade and you are down 70-100 pips and add more positions hoping for a retracement then you don't understand what you are doing. You simply picked the wrong direction and you should have closed your trade long time ago.

Fti I believe you are a great trader but please don't teach MM strategies to retail traders. These are 2 completely different worlds. Also using art of war for trading is one big ROFL. You are better off using a psychology or physics textbook. It relates way more to the markets than AOW.
  • #55,072
  • Jul 23, 2016 1:52am Jul 23, 2016 1:52am
Hello Fti,
Thank you for your kind reply. I have been in reflection about the Most Dangerous Scenario (one of them) and will try to shape it in my comment to Trickshady and Alexandria if I may. I think that is very important what Trickshady has raised and will look at the point from my perspective.
I consider that your teaching is a very valuable grant to develop successful traders.
Regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #55,073
  • Jul 23, 2016 2:28am Jul 23, 2016 2:28am
Hello Trickshady,
I am certainly not in capacity to reply on behalf but would like to express my opinion on the point you raised. First of all, I totally agree on the Warning necessity. However, the Thread and Fti' s gererous contribution (due to his knowledge and experience) must be respected and taken into consideration.
I am with Forex since 2008 trading live almost 1,5 year. This is not much at all and I am a Learner.
I do not know what is your personal experience but can see that of Fti. Apart from his 26 years with banks, I assume he himself has been a Forex retailer since 2007 - 2008. Thus, a priceless twofold experience.
From the very beginning Fti has been stressing on Preservation of cap, cautioning on not taking the teaching blindly as well as of high risk. Therefore, Mindset, Market knowledge and Capitalization (3 pillars). Please look at my posts/ concerns (previous page) and following response by Fti and to that of Alexandria.
New traders must certainly take your WARNING for serious but also read the Thread carefully and apply it rightly. Demoing and the smallest live trading should build the necessary skills and agility. The Fti's method might take years to learn/ train.
Otherwise, for me as a retailer, the Most Dangerous Scenario would be a sudden gap in price against for 1000+ pips. I do not trade any expected news but one cannot foresee CHF CB moves, terrorist attacks, war and other disasters Whatever SL I would put, my bank would close my positions at the gap price emptying, e.g. 5K, 25K account within a couple of minutes. And that is exactly about the Capitalization. How much an ordinary Forex ratailer might be able to withstand, especially, for those using leverage. Even 1:2 might be a high risk for undercapitalized.
And I concur, the Fti's Mindset or psychology pilllar is worthwhile anyway.
Have a consistently saccessful trading! Regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #55,074
  • Jul 23, 2016 4:41am Jul 23, 2016 4:41am
Quoting trickshady
I read the first few pages of this thread and I'm not sure if fti's original method is still followed now. I wonder how many people have blown their accounts trying this way of trading. I have never seen a worse trading method in my life! While it may be good for a bank that has unlimited capital, it is a disaster for retail traders especially the ones that are still new to this game. Using no SL, adding larger positions to a losing trade, this is martingale and it is a recipe for disaster unless you have the skills of fti, and you don't. WARNING!!!...

interesting.
But may i point out to your a few misconceptions.

"down 70-100 pips"
that can be in 1 price shade on a fast shade.
calculations should be in pecentages not pips.

"add more positions hoping"
scaling adds should be strategic, with more follow up strategies.
HOPE, should be left outside your doors.
Try read thread before say hope.

"don't understand what you are doing"
no one understands anything in markets.
Its very dynamic.
Managing with strategies and "sufficient" resources contingencies is paramount. There is no other way.

"picked the wrong direction"
You think this dating? there is no picking acything.
WYSIWYG.

"should have closed"
i should had returned the dress i borrowed from LOti?
trading is forward moving.
Looking back is just for perspective update.
YOU are as good as you can get. regreting does noting for book.
Is either you have strategy to move on or you stuck.
If you stuck , you land on my dinner platter.


There is only 1 type world. Dangerous REAL world.
You can bui;d all sorts virtual reality.
but you still need to land it sometime.
No one has fuel stay in clouds forever.

SunBingFa is my training manual.
There is nothing to teach. Only learning, for those capable to.
As Above So Below.
read & understand thread before putting self in a hard place.
If i listen to every ninja that shows up. Would i be so foolish?


regards

1 more thing.
Do you understand difference between martingale and fibo?
  • #55,075
  • Jul 23, 2016 4:54am Jul 23, 2016 4:54am
Quoting trickshady
I read the first few pages of this thread and I'm not sure if fti's original method is still followed now. I wonder how many people have blown their accounts trying this way of trading. I have never seen a worse trading method in my life! While it may be good for a bank that has unlimited capital, it is a disaster for retail traders especially the ones that are still new to this game. Using no SL, adding larger positions to a losing trade, this is martingale and it is a recipe for disaster unless you have the skills of fti, and you don't. WARNING!!!...
.... Hi..... you need to read more pages..... if YOU blow your account then that is down to YOU and bad money management. - We do not "HOPE". You have a lot to learn about this thread. No-one has said to do what you describe.....the thread is written in such a way so as NOT to mislead - we have to work at it to understand what is being said and to learn from the market- no-one is told to throw good money after bad for ego/fear/greed sake - really it is not written here. This all takes a lot of time and thread is carefully written to emphasise the pitfalls of misuse of powerful tools and it always urges caution at all levels. After all if you are learning to skydive no-one throws you out of an aeroplane and says go learn mate - you need to learn to fly YOUR body in a safe way - all takes time and you are hand-held so that is what this thread tries to do with a generous spirit and some fun - but at all times with strict caution.

If it is not for you then do not continue as you are correct it could all go horribly wrong. For me it works just fine - sure there are hard times coz I get it wrong but that is all down to ME. If you are keen you will continue to read and please do not try to do this for real until you are ready and understand so much more about what is given.

Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #55,076
  • Jul 23, 2016 7:18am Jul 23, 2016 7:18am
Quoting trickshady
I read the first few pages of this thread and I'm not sure if fti's original method is still followed now. I wonder how many people have blown their accounts trying this way of trading. I have never seen a worse trading method in my life! While it may be good for a bank that has unlimited capital, it is a disaster for retail traders especially the ones that are still new to this game. Using no SL, adding larger positions to a losing trade, this is martingale and it is a recipe for disaster unless you have the skills of fti, and you don't. WARNING!!!...
My take is trading is more like dancing. The market always leads. The trader must follow or get toes stepped on.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #55,077
  • Jul 23, 2016 8:44am Jul 23, 2016 8:44am
If I remember right from your early posts, the difference between fibo and martingale is that fibo is a variation of martingale. Yes, I agree trading is dancing, but why add to a losing position? I understand the way fti trades, I just think it is not suitable for a new trader. You need an incredible amount of experience to pull it off and he has it. Fti's strategy is extremely advanced way to trade. I find it dangerous for myself as I am nowhere near his level. Just wanted to warn new traders and the ones with not much experience to not attempt it. This is perhaps the hardest strategy to pull off that I have ever read about.

To me dancing with the market is done on the lower TF's 5min and 1min. You dance in the now moment. If price goes against you 20+ pips, then you aren't dancing with the market anymore, but with yourself.

One thing new traders must get from this thread is its title "technical analysis fallacy". It is crucial to understand why you should never rely on TA alone. It can be used as a tool, but it's probably best to not use it at all as it can blind you.

If you want to learn more about the market without reading about the market. I suggest you go into math, physics, statistics and psychology.
  • #55,078
  • Jul 23, 2016 9:20am Jul 23, 2016 9:20am
Hello Trickshady,
I would like to revert to your warning as regards: "Using no SL, adding larger positions to a losing trade, this is martingale and it is a recipe for disaster unless you have the skills of fti, and you don't." That was probably not within the first 200 pages of the thread but later Fti indicated that one should bite the bullet if trade goes 3 avarege day profit against. Also he mentioned that the scout size should be 1/ 100 00 of trade deposit.
From my personal humble live trading experience so far I would have not lost any trades if I had applied the Fti's rescue. Let say I have taken 2 losses out of some 400 trades. About 30% of the 398 trades were BE (either 0 or 1 or 2 pips profit). I did effect rescue averaging by adding the same scout amount to it never more than once. Maybe I have simply been lucky.
Therefore, if dancing properly and using the 3 pillars accordingly, you should not be in disaster. Then, my hipothetical Most Dangerous Scenario would be a force majore. By the way my house has once been hit by storm and it required to reinstall all the rough construction....
Wish you a successful trading! Regards, Exnav
P.S. Sorry, "rough" - roof construction.
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #55,079
  • Jul 23, 2016 9:49am Jul 23, 2016 9:49am
Quoting trickshady
If I remember right from your early posts, the difference between fibo and martingale is that fibo is a variation of martingale. Yes, I agree trading is dancing, but why add to a losing position? I understand the way fti trades, I just think it is not suitable for a new trader. You need an incredible amount of experience to pull it off and he has it. Fti's strategy is extremely advanced way to trade. I find it dangerous for myself as I am nowhere near his level. Just wanted to warn new traders and the ones with not much experience to not attempt...
"myself as I am nowhere near his level"

"I suggest you go into.."

have you tried heart surgery?
Just tell the surgeon where to cut.

anyway, no problem, For you i suggest you be very mindful, the scorpions,
They live in very dark corners.
If they lead you there.You may not want live with them.

Do what i tell you, Then Do what i Do. You won't be sorry.
READ.

Next topic. ok do you know how to bake a cake?




regards
  • #55,080
  • Jul 23, 2016 10:07am Jul 23, 2016 10:07am
Quoting Exnav
Hello Trickshady, I would like to revert to your warning as regards: "Using no SL, adding larger positions to a losing trade, this is martingale and it is a recipe for disaster unless you have the skills of fti, and you don't." That was probably not within the first 200 pages of the thread but later Fti indicated that one should bite the bullet if trade goes 3 avarege day profit against. Also he mentioned that the scout size should be 1/ 100 00 of trade deposit. From my personal humble live trading experience so far I would have not lost any trades...
just that you get the complete picture.
Ave 3 days foreign cap is extreme conditions.
some days i walk in to market,
buy and sell on the spread and walk out have a coffee.
if mindset for the day is not clean ,is cheaper give them the 2 pips and drink coffee.
normally is cheaper.

rgards
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