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Non-Predictive Trading

  • #21
  • Edited Jul 20, 2016 9:16am Jul 19, 2016 7:42pm | Edited Jul 20, 2016 9:16am
Pick a time of day you can always attend i.e. 5 minutes before you shave in the mornings.

Take the same trade on the same pair every day. i.e. Lose $20 or win $100

Only show the monthly chart to place the trade so you are not influenced by any price action.

Now let's see if you can lose $100 before quitting the idea.

What I mean here is that you go both long and short at the same time with 20 pip stops and 100 pip TP's at $1 per pip.
  • #22
  • Jul 20, 2016 1:13pm Jul 20, 2016 1:13pm
Quoting venividivici
Can we have a thread with traders that don't predict the market? No Support Resistance No Supply Demand No Looking at past chart price action No Predicting Where price will go Just following price getting in and out as it acts.
Support Resistance, Supply Demand, TA Predictions... don't extract any more information from the price time series, they actually destroy it.
Good Luck with your thread
  • #23
  • Jul 22, 2016 3:27am Jul 22, 2016 3:27am
Trade with options, there are some strategys without direction, like short strangle , iron condor....
  • #24
  • Jul 22, 2016 3:54am Jul 22, 2016 3:54am
do you consider at least the avg volatility / spread of the pair ? not even that ??
  • #25
  • Jul 22, 2016 5:18am Jul 22, 2016 5:18am
Quoting digiff
So let me get this straight. You dont want to predict market action at all. Absolutely NO support or resistance of any kind (which involves looking at previous price action by definition). And I am assuming no indicators as well. But.... you DO want to 'follow' price, which would mean some kind of predicting of where it might go. So, that wont work either. You are now left with ONLY one option - Trade with your eyes closed. [make sure you have the order box open] Good luck with that.
From Cambridge Dictionary:
- follow: to move behind someone or something and go where he, she, or it goes
- predict: to say that an event or action will happen in the future, especially as a result of knowledge or experience

So "follow" doesn't mean "some kind of predicting".

Alex
  • #26
  • Jul 22, 2016 6:00am Jul 22, 2016 6:00am
Quoting alexx90
{quote} From Cambridge Dictionary: - follow: to move behind someone or something and go where he, she, or it goes - predict: to say that an event or action will happen in the future, especially as a result of knowledge or experience So "follow" doesn't mean "some kind of predicting". Alex
But exactly what are you following ? past movements !
  • #27
  • Jul 22, 2016 6:27am Jul 22, 2016 6:27am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} But exactly what are you following ? past movements !
In certain ways yes. You need some data to know what is going on.
Following is much better than predicting because when you follow you react to current situation, when you predict you are stuck. When you follow you are ready for the unexpected change.
While playing footbal do you predict where your enemy will go or do you follow him? You follow him. Of course your brain needs some data to follow your enemy.
As the situation evolves so your action does.

Alex
  • #28
  • Jul 22, 2016 6:29am Jul 22, 2016 6:29am
The only non predictive trading is Arbitrage.
  • #29
  • Jul 22, 2016 6:39am Jul 22, 2016 6:39am
Trading is a speculation activity for most of people. Accuracy prediction of the price level can help next trade.

Hedge or pair trading may not need prediction, but, need price to run huge cycle in both direction, and you must be able to control
price movement, like major market makers or rigged market by your force.

Only two way to survive in trading for long-term:
1. smart prediction and price go in your predicted way.
2. you can rig market and make price to go in your way.
  • #30
  • Jul 22, 2016 6:52am Jul 22, 2016 6:52am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
The only non predictive trading is Arbitrage.
I respectfully disagree. Even if you do not share an opinion that following the market (say, via a simple Renko strategy: buy green brick, stop and reverse at red brick) is not predicting the market, one can think of a pure momentum-based strategy (similar ideas here and here.) that does not depend on direction of the market at all.

Cheers,
k
  • #31
  • Jul 22, 2016 7:18am Jul 22, 2016 7:18am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} I respectfully disagree. Even if you do not share an opinion that following the market (say, via a simple Renko strategy: buy green brick, stop and reverse at red brick) is not predicting the market, one can think of a pure momentum-based strategy (similar ideas here and here.) that does not depend on direction of the market at all. Cheers,...
yeah but in that case instead of predicting direction, you ll have to predict volatility, so still doing some prediction, right ?
  • #32
  • Edited 7:32am Jul 22, 2016 7:29am | Edited 7:32am
Quoting metta87
{quote} yeah but in that case instead of predicting direction, you ll have to predict volatility, so still doing some prediction, right ?
You don't rely on prediction: Market volatility (in the sense of thick tail of the distribution of returns on any TF) is simply a statistical fact.

To put it differently, with such distinction one could then argue that also arbitrage is prediction, since the arbitrageur "predicts" the mathematical relationships between currency pairs will proceed to exist.

Cheers,
k
  • #33
  • Jul 22, 2016 7:36am Jul 22, 2016 7:36am
following a trading system is predicting that it will make us money, whether the system predict direction, momentum, is arbitrage, basket trading, news, hft, and whatnot...we are still predicting that following the system rules, we ll be profitable. Trading and prediction go hand in hand imo
  • #34
  • Jul 22, 2016 7:41am Jul 22, 2016 7:41am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} You don't rely on prediction: Market volatility (in the sense of thick tail of the distribution of returns on any TF) is simply a statistical fact. To put it differently, with such distinction one could then argue that also arbitrage is prediction, since the arbitrageur "predicts" the mathematical relationships between currency pairs will proceed to exist. Cheers, k
yeah and by following your statistics, you predict that the market will do this or that for you to profit
  • #35
  • Jul 22, 2016 7:53am Jul 22, 2016 7:53am
Quoting venividivici
Can we have a thread with traders that don't predict the market? No Support Resistance No Supply Demand No Looking at past chart price action No Predicting Where price will go Just following price getting in and out as it acts.

Hey guys whats up. Im new here. I want to share my strategy which is totally non technical.
every open session at 00;00, we just take a currency supposedly eurusd, and open two trades in the opposit directions. buy and sell lets say 0.01. we set a tp of 100 pips. and in no time, both the targets are usually achieved,( assuming from the past data im guessing).
  • #36
  • Jul 22, 2016 10:06am Jul 22, 2016 10:06am
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} What will be your edge in the market ?
Well first to make it clear, there nothing such as 'the' edge, for the reality is that any positive expectancy is a combination of multiple clear* (and sometimes subtle) little improvements. It is the combination of all these that forms your -evolving- edge, or anyone elses for that matter. So, my edge is a combination of many (!) different elements which when combined and executed correctly produces a positive expectancy. Some of these i wont disclose...obviously.

Quoting jgadefelth
How will you enter long and short positions, or on what basis ? What will make you exit in profit or in loss ?
As ive mentioned elsewhere (cant remember) an entry on deviations in momentum under very specific conditions*.
An exit again is formed by variable conditions and scenarios, no two are identical but all of them will fall under certain groups.

Quoting jgadefelth
Would you use some sort of money management if so what type ? Best regards
A sponge cake by itself is many a times dry, yet with some cream or chocolate sauce its just 'perfect', so is risk management. My risk management is actually quite simple yet complex in details. But it all boils down on the premise that if i trip and about to hit my head on the floor...i will put my hands down

HTH
  • #37
  • Jul 22, 2016 10:36am Jul 22, 2016 10:36am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
The only non predictive trading is Arbitrage.
Would the real RR be back?
You'll always miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
  • #38
  • Jul 22, 2016 10:38am Jul 22, 2016 10:38am
Quoting Pipalicious
{quote} Well first to make it clear, there nothing such as 'the' edge, for the reality is that any positive expectancy is a combination of multiple clear* (and sometimes subtle) little improvements. It is the combination of all these that forms your -evolving- edge, or anyone elses for that matter. So, my edge is a combination of many (!) different elements which when combined and executed correctly produces a positive expectancy. Some of these i wont disclose...obviously. {quote} As ive mentioned elsewhere (cant remember) an entry on deviations...

Ok let me see if i understand you right you give me ansswears to my question but at the end you still have told me absolutly nothing. YOu have told me there is someway to trade profitable, or a good way that you know of and it contains many elements but you wont tell me me anything about it OK. So what is the point in saying something like this in the first place ? It is like saying i know there is a goldmine somewhere i wont tell you where it is but it is there. Ok so maybe i shall commit my life to search for it or maybe not. What is the point really


Best regards
  • #39
  • Jul 22, 2016 1:33pm Jul 22, 2016 1:33pm
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} Ok let me see if i understand you right you give me ansswears to my question but at the end you still have told me absolutly nothing. YOu have told me there is someway to trade profitable, or a good way that you know of and it contains many elements but you wont tell me me anything about it OK. So what is the point in saying something like this in the first place ? It is like saying i know there is a goldmine somewhere i wont tell you where it is but it is there. Ok so maybe i shall commit my life to search for it or maybe not. What is the...



the weirdos are watching :nerd:


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  • #40
  • Jul 22, 2016 1:51pm Jul 22, 2016 1:51pm
when I do not have time to watch monitor I use chart, sometimes have plenty of time to watch monitor I do not look to chart.
some clue: 1. trading hours 2. the dips of price 3. the move of the spread 4. count the pips move etc. with that all variable just watch the price and action.
the gambler
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